Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Sunday Scan

As the trading week approaches, US equity index futures show modest movement in early Sunday trading, setting a cautious but steady pre-market tone. With full market activity yet to resume, investors are likely digesting the close of the previous week and positioning for upcoming economic data and corporate earnings.

US Index Futures:

• S&P 500 futures (ES=F) are largely flat in thin overnight trading, indicating a holding pattern after Friday's session.
• Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) also show minimal directional bias, suggesting tech-focused investors are awaiting fresh catalysts.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) reflect a similar muted sentiment, pointing to a potentially quiet open before key economic releases later in the week.

The pre-market tone remains somewhat subdued, a common characteristic of Sunday evenings. Friday's trading session saw major indices conclude with mixed results, characterized by sector rotation and profit-taking in certain areas, particularly after a strong run. This suggests a potentially nuanced start to the new week as market participants reassess valuations and growth prospects.

Macro and Key Events Ahead:

The week ahead is poised to deliver several significant economic data points that could influence market direction. Investors will be closely monitoring inflation indicators, manufacturing data, and consumer sentiment reports. Central bank commentary, particularly any hints regarding future monetary policy, will also be a critical focus.

Top Movers to Watch:

While definitive "top movers" are yet to emerge in the pre-market, attention will likely turn to sectors and individual stocks that saw considerable activity last week. Technology and growth stocks, which experienced some volatility, could be in focus as investors gauge their forward guidance and upcoming earnings reports. Energy stocks may also garner attention, reacting to any weekend developments in global oil markets or geopolitical news. Financials will be watched for interest rate sensitive movements. Any companies that released significant news or guidance over the weekend will undoubtedly capture early trading attention on Monday.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: January 25, 2026

As Sunday draws to a close, markets globally reflect on a week punctuated by evolving trade dynamics and key central bank signals. This preview summarizes the close of the trading week on Friday, January 23, 2026, and highlights the significant macroeconomic events anticipated in the week ahead.

Asian Markets Review

Asian equities largely concluded the week with a positive tone, buoyed by an improvement in risk sentiment as tariff tensions notably eased. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rose by 0.29% on Friday, closing at 53,847 points. This followed a stronger 1.73% gain on Thursday, January 22. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy rate at 0.75%, a decision widely anticipated by the market. However, the meeting's tone was perceived as somewhat hawkish, driven by upward revisions to inflation forecasts, which led to an increase in Japanese short-term government bond yields.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also saw gains, closing 0.45% higher at 26,749.51 on Friday. The improved risk appetite, alongside strengthening Hong Kong property shares following China Vanke's bond repayment deferral approval, contributed to the positive sentiment. Investors in the region are now looking ahead to upcoming releases on Hong Kong inflation and business sentiment.

European Markets Review

European indices generally reacted positively to a de-escalation in U.S.-Europe tariff threats during the latter half of the week, particularly those related to the proposed Greenland takeover. On Friday, the DAX closed up 0.18% at 24900.71 points, though it recorded a 1.57% decline for the week, ending an eight-week winning streak. Germany's HCOB Flash Composite PMI for January rose to 52.5, marking a three-month high and surpassing expectations. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index saw a slight dip of 0.05% on Friday, settling at 5,953.06, after a more substantial 1.25% gain on Thursday.

The Week Ahead: Macro Calendar Highlights

The upcoming week is poised to be significant for global markets, with several key central bank decisions and crucial economic data releases:

• Central Banks:
  • The Federal Reserve (FOMC) will hold its first policy meeting of 2026 on January 27-28. While market consensus suggests rates will remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, the ensuing press conference from Chair Powell could introduce new market drivers.
  • The Bank of Japan will release its latest meeting minutes.
  • Rate decisions are also anticipated from the central banks of Canada, Brazil, and Sweden, with the Bank of Canada and the Swedish Riksbank broadly expected to maintain current rates.
• Key Economic Data:
  • In the Eurozone, attention will be on the release of GDP figures.
  • Germany and Spain are slated to publish their latest inflation rates.
  • China will unveil its official PMIs for the start of the year.
  • Australia is set to report December consumer inflation, with the annual rate projected to increase to 3.6% from 3.4%, alongside Q4 producer inflation and NAB Business Confidence.
  • The U.S. calendar includes updates on November durable goods orders (expected to rise 0.5%) and December Producer Price Index (forecast up 0.2%). Further releases include the trade balance, factory orders, Case-Shiller home price index, and various regional manufacturing and consumer sentiment indicators.
  • The U.K. will see data on mortgage approvals and Nationwide house prices.
  • Japan will provide updated inflation data and flash Manufacturing and Services PMI figures.
  • Hong Kong anticipates releases on inflation and business sentiment, as well as trade data.
  • Other notable releases include GDP figures from the Eurozone, Canada, the Philippines, and Taiwan, along with industrial production data from South Korea, Singapore, and India.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Navigating Geopolitical Shifts and Key Technical Levels

As markets prepare for the upcoming trading week, investors are digesting a volatile period marked by geopolitical developments and evolving economic data. The past week, ending January 23, 2026, saw a stabilization in equity markets after early-week pressures stemming from US-EU trade tensions over Greenland. While the S&P 500 faced its first potential two-week loss since June, despite a mid-week rally, the US economy demonstrated resilience.

Last week's macroeconomic landscape was characterized by stronger-than-expected Q4 2025 GDP growth, which expanded at an annualized rate of 4.4%, surpassing the 3.8% seen in Q3 and driven by robust household demand and business investment. PCE inflation aligned with expectations at 2.8%, and the labor market remained resilient. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have softened, and the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28 is widely anticipated to result in no change to interest rates, with attention primarily focused on forward guidance from the ensuing press conference.

Fourth-quarter earnings season is underway, with 13% of S&P 500 companies reporting. While 75% have exceeded EPS estimates, this figure is slightly below the five-year average of 78%. Energy and Basic Materials emerged as the best-performing sectors last week, gaining 2.95% and 2.83% respectively, while Financial Services and Real Estate lagged, falling 2.53% and 2.26%.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the week of January 26, 2026, includes key US data points such as Durable Goods Orders and Capital Goods Orders on Monday, followed by the Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday. The week's highlight will be Wednesday's FOMC interest rate decision and press conference. Friday will bring important GDP and CPI data from the Eurozone and Germany, alongside the US Producer Price Index.

Here are the key technical levels for the main indices to watch:

• S&P 500 (SPX)

  The S&P 500 is currently positioned at pivotal resistance. Initial support is identified at 6798, corresponding to the 1.618% extension of the monthly decline, with a more substantial level at 6770 (December low-day close). Broader bullish invalidation lies in the 6697-6718 range, a zone that incorporates the 61.8% retracement of the November advance and the objective December low, where basic channel support converges. A breach below this region could signal a more significant trend reversal. On the upside, a daily close above 6983 is necessary to confirm the resumption of the uptrend, with the next technical resistance eyed near 7138.

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

  The Nasdaq 100 is trading within its monthly opening range, just below resistance at 25858, which marks the 2025 high-week close. Further resistance levels are found at 26182 (2025 swing high) and 26609 (1.618% extension of the 2020 advance). A weekly close above the 25858 resistance could propel the index towards 28324. Immediate support is located at 24625, representing the 61.8% retracement of the November rally. Subsequent support is seen between 23712 and 23907, with broader bullish invalidation at the 52-week moving average near 22815. The RSI curve indicates a falling trend, suggesting a potential downward reversal for the price.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains within a rising trend channel in the medium term, with significant support around 48000 points. The monthly range is established just above support at 48279/458. Sustained losses below 48279 could trigger a deeper correction towards 47220, the 61.8% retracement of the November rally. Below this, the November low-week close at 46245 acts as a critical support. For upside momentum, a break above the monthly range high is needed to target 50272, where channel resistance converges. A weekly close above this level could fuel a move towards 52000.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Navigating Volatility and Yield Dynamics

As the trading week concluded on Friday, January 23, 2026, market participants continued to grapple with an evolving macro landscape, characterized by persistent cross-asset volatility and nuanced shifts in currency and fixed income markets.

Volatility Insights:

• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) experienced a notable uptick towards the end of the week, reflecting increased investor apprehension. While remaining below levels indicative of extreme panic, the rise suggests a heightened sensitivity to incoming economic data and corporate earnings reports.
• Broader cross-asset volatility measures also hinted at a more cautious market sentiment. Equities saw a slight increase in implied volatility, while bond market volatility remained elevated, driven by uncertainty surrounding future interest rate trajectories.

USD Performance:

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrated resilience, strengthening against a basket of major currencies. This move was primarily underpinned by safe-haven flows amidst global economic uncertainties and expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively hawkish stance compared to some of its international counterparts.
• Key currency pairs saw the USD gaining ground, particularly against the Euro and the Yen, as markets weighed contrasting monetary policy outlooks and differing economic growth prospects.

Bond Yields:

• US Treasury yields saw upward pressure across the curve. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, in particular, edged higher, breaching key technical levels. This movement was largely a reaction to stronger-than-expected economic indicators released earlier in the week and hawkish rhetoric from some Fed officials, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' interest rate narrative.
• The 2-year Treasury yield also climbed, narrowing the inversion with longer-dated maturities slightly, though the curve remains inverted, signaling continued concerns about future economic growth despite immediate inflation pressures.

Outlook:

Investors will closely monitor upcoming inflation data and central bank communications in the week ahead. The interplay between sustained inflation concerns and potential economic slowdowns will likely continue to dictate market sentiment, keeping both volatility and yield movements in sharp focus. The USD's strength is expected to persist as long as global uncertainties and interest rate differentials remain supportive.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Setting the Stage for the Week Ahead

As we enter Sunday, January 25, 2026, markets are poised for a potentially volatile week, with investors closely scrutinizing a confluence of macroeconomic data and central bank rhetoric. The past week concluded with mixed signals, underscoring persistent uncertainties in the global economic landscape.

Last week's session saw a nuanced close across major indices. Equity markets showed resilience, with the S&P 500 extending gains on Friday, primarily driven by strong earnings reports from several tech giants. However, the broader market remains sensitive to interest rate expectations and inflation concerns. Bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury, saw slight upward pressure late last week, reflecting growing anticipation of upcoming economic data and potential shifts in monetary policy. Crude oil prices also maintained an upward trajectory, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and robust demand forecasts.

Today's Trading Playbook: Scenarios & Triggers for the Week

Given that markets are closed today, the focus shifts to preparing for the week's open, with a particular emphasis on potential catalysts.

• Inflation Watch: The primary trigger this week will be the release of key inflation data on Tuesday, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Should inflation figures come in hotter than expected, it would likely reignite hawkish sentiment, leading to an immediate sell-off in equities and a further rise in bond yields, particularly for growth stocks. Conversely, a softer inflation print could provide a much-needed boost to risk assets, hinting at potential central bank flexibility.
• Central Bank Commentary: Speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled throughout the week. Any hawkish leanings or explicit mentions of tighter monetary policy could quickly shift market sentiment, particularly if they reinforce concerns raised by inflation data. Investors will be seeking clarity on the future path of interest rates.
• Corporate Earnings: While the bulk of earnings season is behind us, several high-profile companies are still slated to report. Strong results, especially from bellwether sectors, could provide idiosyncratic support to specific market segments, while weaker outlooks could contribute to broader market caution.
• Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing geopolitical situations, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, remain a background risk. Any significant escalation could lead to a flight to safety, impacting commodity prices (especially oil) and driving demand for safe-haven assets like the U.S. Dollar and gold.

Risk Levels & Positioning:

The upcoming week presents a delicate balance of opportunities and risks.

• Upside Scenario: A "goldilocks" scenario—where inflation data cools slightly without signaling a significant economic slowdown—combined with dovish central bank rhetoric, could propel equities higher, particularly cyclicals and technology. The S&P 500 could test its recent highs.
• Downside Scenario: Hotter-than-expected inflation, coupled with aggressive central bank commentary, presents a significant downside risk. In this scenario, expect increased volatility, a broad equity market correction, and continued pressure on longer-dated bonds. Defensive sectors and value stocks may outperform.

Traders should monitor incoming data closely and consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential volatility. Risk management will be paramount as markets navigate these critical macro crosscurrents. Strong technical levels to watch for the S&P 500 include immediate support at 4,850 and resistance at 4,950. Bond yields will be closely watched, with the 10-year Treasury yield's movement above 4.2% potentially signaling further bond market weakness.