Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets Update - January 24, 2026

As markets open this Saturday, January 24, 2026, the overall sentiment remains mixed, characterized by equity indices lacking a strong directional conviction. We observe ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows across various assets.

US Index Futures: US index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are indicating a marginal positive bias of approximately +0.03 in pre-market trading. Investors should remain vigilant for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as tactical positioning appears to be key.

Pre-Market Tone & Sector Dynamics: The pre-market tone reflects a cautious anticipation, with the market awaiting new macro catalysts to provide clearer direction. While a strong overarching trend is absent, the presence of sector rotations and selective flows suggests underlying activity and differentiation within the broader market. This environment necessitates a more tactical approach to trading.

Volatility & Tactical Focus: The VIX, a key measure of market volatility, is currently situated at intermediate levels. This suggests that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress. Today's trading is expected to be largely tactical, focusing on established support and resistance levels. Furthermore, market participants should remain highly attentive to any sudden headline news that could trigger immediate reactions.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Global Indecision as Key Data Awaited

Global markets are showing a lack of clear direction this Saturday morning, with investors largely in a holding pattern ahead of significant economic data and potential catalysts. Futures across major regions suggest a cautious start to the weekend as traders consolidate positions after recent movements.

Asia

Asian markets are without strong directional conviction, exhibiting contained movements. The focus remains squarely on local news developments and key economic data releases from China and Japan. Investors will be closely watching for any signals that could influence regional growth prospects, impacting indices like the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng.

Europe

European futures are displaying limited movement, indicating a neutral outlook for now. The market environment is characterized by investors awaiting fresh macro or political catalysts to provide clearer direction. Key European indices such as the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 are likely to reflect this period of consolidation, with significant news flow needed to spur a breakout.

United States

US futures are mixed and lacking a clear direction, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase following recent sessions of activity. This indecision could persist until new information emerges to guide sentiment.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macro calendar, while of moderate importance today, features several publications with the potential to influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The early hours will bring confidence indicators and production data from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These releases will be monitored for insights into the health of the European economy.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with the release of crucial data pertaining to inflation, employment, or economic activity (depending on the specific day). These figures are particularly key for the EUR/USD exchange rate and major US indices.
• Evening: Any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, will be closely watched. These events could trigger spikes in volatility as markets react to forward guidance or assessments of economic health.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels

Good morning, traders. As we head into the weekend, we examine the key technical levels across major assets and indices based on yesterday's closing data, updated for January 24, 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a moderately bullish session yesterday, closing at 4,976.20, near the upper end of its daily range of 4,936.00 – 4,976.20. For today's session, the classical pivot point is set at 4,962.80. Immediate support levels are seen at S1 4,949.40 and S2 4,922.60, while resistance levels are at R1 4,989.60 and R2 5,003.00.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude demonstrated a clearly bullish performance, finishing yesterday's session at 61.07. The price closed towards the high end of its range, which spanned from 59.52 to 61.36. The classical pivot point for WTI Crude is positioned at 60.65. Support levels are identified at S1 59.94 and S2 58.81, with resistance levels at R1 61.78 and R2 62.49.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a moderately bullish day, closing at 1.1755, within the central part of its daily range of 1.1729 – 1.1776. The classical pivot point for EUR/USD is 1.1753. Key support levels are at S1 1.1731 and S2 1.1706, while resistance levels are found at R1 1.1777 and R2 1.1800.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 traded in a largely sideways fashion, ending the session at 25,605.47. The index closed in the middle of its daily range, which stretched from 25,435.02 to 25,709.74. The classical pivot point is 25,583.41. Support levels are at S1 25,457.08 and S2 25,308.69, with resistance levels at R1 25,731.80 and R2 25,858.13.

S&P 500 (SPX)

Similar to the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 exhibited a substantially lateral movement, closing at 6,915.61, in the central part of its range between 6,895.50 and 6,932.96. The classical pivot point for the S&P 500 is 6,914.69. Support levels are located at S1 6,896.42 and S2 6,877.23, while resistance levels are at R1 6,933.88 and R2 6,952.15.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX also showed a largely lateral session, closing at 24,900.71, but managed to finish towards the upper end of its daily range of 24,796.93 – 24,930.15. The classical pivot point is calculated at 24,875.93. Support levels are S1 24,821.71 and S2 24,742.71, with resistance levels at R1 24,954.93 and R2 25,009.15.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB experienced a moderately bearish session, closing at 44,832.00, within the central part of its daily range of 44,627.00 – 44,985.00. The classical pivot point is 44,814.67. Support levels are at S1 44,644.33 and S2 44,456.67, while resistance levels are at R1 45,002.33 and R2 45,172.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 saw a clearly bearish session, closing at 2,669.16, specifically at the lower end of its daily range from 2,664.55 to 2,712.70. The classical pivot point is 2,682.14. Key support levels are at S1 2,651.57 and S2 2,633.99, with resistance levels at R1 2,699.72 and R2 2,730.29.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

As of Friday's close, market participants continue to navigate a landscape characterized by measured volatility across key indices, while specific commodities show a slightly heightened demand for protection. The broader macro environment, including movements in the US Dollar and bond yields, remains crucial for investor sentiment.

Equity Volatility: A Balanced Picture

The VIX (S&P 500) currently sits around 16.1%, aligning closely with its recent average. This suggests a market without significant signs of excessive fear or complacency. A closer look reveals that the implied volatility for the S&P 500 (VIX ~16.1%) is slightly above the 10-day realized volatility (~13.7%). This modest premium for implied volatility indicates a normal demand for protection within the S&P 500, rather than widespread panic.

Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is trading around 20.4%, also consistent with its recent historical mean. This indicates that, despite ongoing technological sector dynamics, there is no evident excess of fear or undue complacency among Nasdaq investors.

Cross-Asset Volatility: Pockets of Caution

While equity indices display a balanced volatility profile, certain commodities are seeing increased hedging activity. Gold volatility (GVZ) is moderately above its 20-day average at approximately 30.0%, suggesting the market is paying for protection, though not yet signaling panic. This could reflect underlying geopolitical concerns or shifts in safe-haven demand.

Oil volatility (OVX) also stands moderately above its 20-day average at about 47.6%. This increased premium for protection in crude oil futures likely reflects supply-side uncertainties or demand fluctuations, again without reaching extreme levels of panic.

Unfortunately, data for EURUSD (EVZ) and DAX (VDAX) volatility was unavailable, preventing a comprehensive cross-asset comparison in these areas.

USD and Bond Yields: Key Macro Indicators

The US Dollar has shown varied performance throughout the week, with the DXY index experiencing some fluctuations. The dollar initially strengthened earlier in the week, driven by robust economic data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, reaching its highest level since November at one point. However, it later pared some gains following mixed economic reports and profit-taking activities. Overall, the dollar's trajectory remains sensitive to inflation data and the Fed's monetary policy outlook.

In the bond markets, US Treasury yields have seen notable movements. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated, reacting to economic data releases and central bank commentary. Recent sessions have seen yields largely consolidate after earlier upward pressures stemming from persistent inflation concerns and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. Yields have generally held above the 4% mark, reflecting the market's assessment of future monetary policy and economic growth. Meanwhile, German 10-year bond yields have also followed a similar pattern, albeit often at lower levels, influenced by Eurozone inflation figures and European Central Bank (ECB) policy expectations. The spread between US and German yields continues to be a key factor in currency valuations and global capital flows.

Investors will continue to monitor incoming economic data, central bank communications, and geopolitical developments for further clues on market direction in the week ahead.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

For today's trading session, our tactical playbook highlights key levels and strategies across major assets. The prevailing bias for all instruments remains neutral, suggesting an environment more conducive to range-trading strategies or market-neutral option structures around their respective daily pivots. Directional triggers are identified at confirmed breakouts beyond the second resistance (R2) or below the second support (S2) levels.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,962.80
• Support Levels: S1: 4,949.40, S2: 4,922.60
• Resistance Levels: R1: 4,989.60, R2: 5,003.00
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 4,949.40 and 4,989.60, or market-neutral options structures around the 4,962.80 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 5,003.00 or below 4,922.60 would indicate a directional shift.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 60.65
• Support Levels: S1: 59.94, S2: 58.81
• Resistance Levels: R1: 61.78, R2: 62.49
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 59.94 and 61.78, or market-neutral options structures around the 60.65 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 62.49 or below 58.81 would indicate a directional shift.

EUR/USD (Spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1753
• Support Levels: S1: 1.1731, S2: 1.1706
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.1777, R2: 1.1800
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 1.1731 and 1.1777, or market-neutral options structures around the 1.1753 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1800 or below 1.1706 would indicate a directional shift.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,583.41
• Support Levels: S1: 25,457.08, S2: 25,308.69
• Resistance Levels: R1: 25,731.80, R2: 25,858.13
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 25,457.08 and 25,731.80, or market-neutral options structures around the 25,583.41 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,858.13 or below 25,308.69 would indicate a directional shift.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,914.69
• Support Levels: S1: 6,896.42, S2: 6,877.23
• Resistance Levels: R1: 6,933.88, R2: 6,952.15
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 6,896.42 and 6,933.88, or market-neutral options structures around the 6,914.69 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,952.15 or below 6,877.23 would indicate a directional shift.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,875.93
• Support Levels: S1: 24,821.71, S2: 24,742.71
• Resistance Levels: R1: 24,954.93, R2: 25,009.15
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 24,821.71 and 24,954.93, or market-neutral options structures around the 24,875.93 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,009.15 or below 24,742.71 would indicate a directional shift.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,814.67
• Support Levels: S1: 44,644.33, S2: 44,456.67
• Resistance Levels: R1: 45,002.33, R2: 45,172.67
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 44,644.33 and 45,002.33, or market-neutral options structures around the 44,814.67 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 45,172.67 or below 44,456.67 would indicate a directional shift.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,682.14
• Support Levels: S1: 2,651.57, S2: 2,633.99
• Resistance Levels: R1: 2,699.72, R2: 2,730.29
• Bias: Neutral. The current context suggests a focus on range-trading strategies between 2,651.57 and 2,699.72, or market-neutral options structures around the 2,682.14 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,730.29 or below 2,633.99 would indicate a directional shift.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading in derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.