Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 26, 2026

Overall Market Tone Global equity markets are entering the week with a mixed tone, characterized by selective flows and sectoral rotations. Pre-market activity suggests a degree of caution as investors await fresh macroeconomic catalysts. While there isn't a strong directional bias, market participants are keenly watching for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows.

US Equity Futures & Pre-Market Tone US index futures are showing slight dips in pre-market trading this Monday. S&P 500 futures are down approximately 0.11%, Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by about 0.21%, and Dow Jones futures have declined around 0.24% as of late Sunday/early Monday ET. This contrasts with a slight positive bias noted in the broader market in the immediate context. The pre-market tone remains cautious, following a whipsaw week marked by heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly around Greenland. A significant focus for the week will be the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from major tech companies.

Top Movers As the market awaits fresh catalysts, individual stock movements in the pre-market are beginning to emerge, reflecting recent news and sector-specific developments. While comprehensive top movers for the exact start of January 26th will materialize shortly after the open, recent pre-market sessions have seen notable activity. For instance, Intel's share price plunged last week following disappointing guidance and challenges in meeting AI chip demand. Conversely, some smaller cap companies, such as Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) and Kustom Entertainment (KUST), showed significant pre-market gains in recent trading days. Mingteng International is also in focus as a 1-for-200 reverse stock split becomes effective today, January 26, 2026. Investors are advised to monitor individual stock news closely as the session progresses.

FX Outlook The EUR/USD pair exhibits a neutral bias, with its movements primarily driven by the differential between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policies, alongside incoming inflation and labor market data. While the pair closed near its highs last week, some analysts suggest a positive outlook for early this week, anticipating technical buying to push it towards the 1.19 handle. The US dollar generally weakened last week, partly due to a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen and subsequent position reallocations.

Commodities Update In commodities, both Gold and WTI Crude Oil are showing neutral biases, with flows reflecting a blend of macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth. Gold, however, has recently surged past the $5,000 mark, reaching new record highs due to renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing global tensions and a bond selloff. It hit an intraday high of $5,091.5 internationally. WTI Crude Oil is trading near $61.10 a barrel, extending last week's upward trend, supported by persistent geopolitical jitters and favorable technical indicators.

Volatility Snapshot The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at intermediate levels, signaling a moderate risk of tactical corrections in the market rather than systemic stress. The VIX briefly exceeded 20 last week amid heightened geopolitical concerns, but has since retreated, generally hovering in the 16-19 range.

Tactical Focus for the Day Markets are actively awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts to provide clearer direction. Operability is expected to be more tactical, focusing on key support and resistance levels. Traders should remain vigilant for any sudden headline news that could trigger swift market reactions, especially with a busy week of earnings and a significant Federal Reserve meeting ahead.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update - Monday

Global markets are exhibiting a cautious start to the week, with investors closely monitoring incoming economic data and central bank communications.

Asia

Asian markets are currently showing limited direction, with restrained movements across major indices. The focus for investors remains on local news developments and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are reflecting this lack of a strong directional trend as the session progresses.

Europe

European futures are registering minor movements in early trading, signaling a largely neutral outlook for the region. The broader picture remains one of anticipation, as investors await fresh macro and political catalysts to provide a clearer direction for markets. Key indices such as the DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 are expected to remain responsive to any new information.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The economic calendar for today is of moderate significance, yet it includes several publications that could influence sentiment across various indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: Expect the release of confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local economic updates. These could offer insights into the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with the release of crucial data pertaining to inflation, employment, or overall economic activity. These releases are particularly key for the EURUSD exchange rate and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Potential speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are on the agenda. Additionally, statistics related to financial conditions will be monitored for any indications of possible volatility spikes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets Update: January 26, 2026

Here's a look at key technical levels for major assets, based on yesterday's closing data.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 5,089.60, having traded within a range of 5,002.00 to 5,107.90. The session was clearly bullish, with the closing price in the upper part of the daily range. Key classic pivot levels are set at P 5,066.50, with supports at S1 5,025.10 and S2 4,960.60. Resistances are identified at R1 5,131.00 and R2 5,172.40.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended yesterday at 61.35, following a trading range between 60.60 and 61.71. The session was largely sideways, closing in the upper portion of the daily range. The classic pivot point is at P 61.22. Support levels are S1 60.73 and S2 60.11, while resistances stand at R1 61.84 and R2 62.33.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed yesterday at 1.1851, with an intraday range of 1.1844 to 1.1899. The session was moderately bullish, but closed in the lower part of the daily range. The classic pivot is at P 1.1865. Supports are found at S1 1.1830 and S2 1.1810, with resistances at R1 1.1885 and R2 1.1920.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 concluded yesterday at 25,605.47, trading within a range of 25,435.02 to 25,709.74. The session was largely sideways, closing in the middle of the daily range. The classic pivot point is P 25,583.41. Key support levels are S1 25,457.08 and S2 25,308.69, while resistance levels are R1 25,731.80 and R2 25,858.13.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6,915.61, after trading between 6,895.50 and 6,932.96. The session was largely sideways, closing in the middle of the daily range. The classic pivot is P 6,914.69. Support levels are S1 6,896.42 and S2 6,877.23, with resistances at R1 6,933.88 and R2 6,952.15.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX finished yesterday at 24,900.71, with an intraday range from 24,796.93 to 24,930.15. The session was largely sideways, closing in the upper portion of the daily range. The classic pivot is P 24,875.93. Supports are identified at S1 24,821.71 and S2 24,742.71, while resistances are R1 24,954.93 and R2 25,009.15.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB closed yesterday at 44,832.00, trading within a range of 44,627.00 to 44,985.00. The session was moderately bearish, closing in the middle of the daily range. The classic pivot point is P 44,814.67. Key support levels are S1 44,644.33 and S2 44,456.67, with resistance levels at R1 45,002.33 and R2 45,172.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 ended yesterday at 2,669.16, following a trading range of 2,664.55 to 2,712.70. The session was clearly bearish, with the closing price in the lower part of the daily range. The classic pivot is P 2,682.14. Supports are found at S1 2,651.57 and S2 2,633.99, with resistances at R1 2,699.72 and R2 2,730.29.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Shifting Currencies

Today, Monday, January 26, 2026, global markets are navigating a landscape characterized by tempered equity volatility, heightened protection premiums in commodities, a weakening US dollar, and easing bond yields.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied & Cross-Asset Snapshot

• S&P 500 (VIX): The VIX currently hovers around 16.1%, broadly in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency in the broader equity market. Realized volatility over 10 days for the S&P 500 stands at approximately 13.7%, indicating that implied volatility remains slightly above realized levels, a normal premium for protection on the SPX. However, the VIX briefly exceeded 20 during the past week, driven by geopolitical tensions.
• Nasdaq 100 (VXN): Similarly, the VXN for the Nasdaq 100 is at about 20.4%, also consistent with its recent average and not signaling unusual fear or exuberance in tech stocks.
• Gold (GVZ): Gold volatility (GVZ) is noted at roughly 30.0%, moderately above its 20-day average. This suggests that the market is paying for protection in gold, though without signs of outright panic. Indeed, gold surged past $5,000 per ounce today, buoyed by safety flows amidst dollar weakness.
• Oil (OVX): Oil volatility (OVX) is at approximately 47.6%, also moderately above its 20-day average. Like gold, this indicates a market willing to pay for protection in oil, but without reaching panic levels.

USD and Major Currencies

The US dollar is facing continued pressure, with the Dollar Index (DXY) easing to 97.1600 today, down 0.45% from the previous session. This continues a prolonged downward trend, with the DXY having closed last week at its lowest level in four months, around 97.80 points. Over the past month, the greenback has weakened by 0.89% and is down by 9.48% over the last 12 months. Political factors and ongoing disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy are key influences on the dollar's current movement.

Conversely, the EUR/USD exchange rate strengthened to 1.1855 today, marking a 0.29% rise from the previous session. The pair closed last week near highs, around 1.1833, and its outlook remains positive. It has gained 0.70% over the past month and an impressive 12.99% over the last year.

Bond Yields

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury Note eased to 4.21% today, January 26, 2026, reflecting a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the prior session. This follows a surge to 4.30% earlier in the week (Wednesday morning), which marked a 17-basis-point increase over a week. While the yield has edged up by 0.10 points over the past month, it remains 0.33 points lower than a year ago.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook - Monday, January 26, 2026

Today's trading session opens with a generally neutral bias across major assets, suggesting a context more suited to range-trading strategies or market-neutral options around established pivot points. Key directional triggers are identified for confirmed breakouts beyond defined resistance or support levels.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 5,065.50
• First Support (S1): 5,023.10
• Second Support (S2): 4,959.60
• First Resistance (R1): 5,129.00
• Second Resistance (R2): 5,171.40
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 5,023.10 and 5,129.00, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 5,065.50.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 5,171.40 or below 4,959.60.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 61.23
• First Support (S1): 60.74
• Second Support (S2): 60.12
• First Resistance (R1): 61.85
• Second Resistance (R2): 62.34
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 60.74 and 61.85, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 61.23.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 62.34 or below 60.12.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1864
• First Support (S1): 1.1829
• Second Support (S2): 1.1809
• First Resistance (R1): 1.1884
• Second Resistance (R2): 1.1919
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 1.1829 and 1.1884, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 1.1864.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 1.1919 or below 1.1809.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,583.41
• First Support (S1): 25,457.08
• Second Support (S2): 25,308.69
• First Resistance (R1): 25,731.80
• Second Resistance (R2): 25,858.13
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 25,457.08 and 25,731.80, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 25,583.41.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 25,858.13 or below 25,308.69.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,914.69
• First Support (S1): 6,896.42
• Second Support (S2): 6,877.23
• First Resistance (R1): 6,933.88
• Second Resistance (R2): 6,952.15
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 6,896.42 and 6,933.88, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 6,914.69.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 6,952.15 or below 6,877.23.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,875.93
• First Support (S1): 24,821.71
• Second Support (S2): 24,742.71
• First Resistance (R1): 24,954.93
• Second Resistance (R2): 25,009.15
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 24,821.71 and 24,954.93, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 24,875.93.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 25,009.15 or below 24,742.71.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,814.67
• First Support (S1): 44,644.33
• Second Support (S2): 44,456.67
• First Resistance (R1): 45,002.33
• Second Resistance (R2): 45,172.67
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 44,644.33 and 45,002.33, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 44,814.67.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 45,172.67 or below 44,456.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,682.14
• First Support (S1): 2,651.57
• Second Support (S2): 2,633.99
• First Resistance (R1): 2,699.72
• Second Resistance (R2): 2,730.29
• Bias: Neutral - context more suited to range-trading strategies between 2,651.57 and 2,699.72, or market-neutral options structures around the pivot 2,682.14.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 2,730.29 or below 2,633.99.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation of public savings in any way. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivative instruments and leverage involves a high level of risk.