Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Setting the Tone for the Week Ahead

As we head into the new trading week on Sunday, January 18, 2026, market sentiment appears mixed, characterized by ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows across global indices.

Equity Outlook:

• US index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, alongside Germany's GER30, indicate a slight positive bias of +0.03. Traders will be keenly observing potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, suggesting a focus on key technical levels for directional cues.

Pre-Market Tone & Volatility:

• The overall pre-market tone suggests a moderate risk environment, with the VIX maintaining intermediate levels. This indicates that while the market is pricing in a moderate potential for tactical corrections, there is no immediate systemic stress apparent.
• Across other asset classes, both EURUSD, Gold (XAU), and WTI crude oil are exhibiting a neutral bias. Their movements are expected to remain primarily driven by macro factors, including interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, along with forthcoming inflation and labor market data. Commodity flows will also reflect specific news regarding interest rates and global growth prospects.

Tactical Focus for the Day/Week:

• The market is currently awaiting fresh macro catalysts to dictate a clearer direction. As such, the operational focus for traders will likely be highly tactical, emphasizing trades around established support and resistance levels. Vigilance for sudden headline news, which could quickly shift sentiment, will also be paramount.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: A Cautious Start to the Week

Global markets are poised for a measured opening this Monday, with investors closely monitoring local developments and a moderate macro calendar for fresh directional cues. After recent sessions of volatility, a sense of consolidation appears to be setting in across major regions.

Asia

Asian markets, including the Nikkei and Hang Seng, are expected to open without a strong directional bias. Price movements are anticipated to remain contained as participants focus on local news and key economic data from China and Japan. The lack of strong impetus suggests a day of selective trading rather than broad-based shifts.

Europe

European futures point to a flat opening, maintaining a neutral outlook. Investors appear to be in a holding pattern, awaiting new macroeconomic or political catalysts to drive sentiment. Major indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx are likely to trade within established ranges as the market assesses the current environment.

Macro Calendar (CET)

While the overall macro calendar for the day is of moderate relevance, certain publications hold the potential to influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The early hours will bring confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local economic updates. These releases will offer insights into the health of the regional economy.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with releases pertaining to inflation, labor, or activity data. These figures will be particularly key for the EUR/USD exchange rate and major US indices, potentially dictating afternoon trading trends.
• Evening: Later in the day, any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, should be closely monitored. These events have the capacity to trigger sudden spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels to Watch This Sunday, January 18, 2026

As we approach the new trading week, market participants will be keenly observing key technical levels following a generally sideways session across most assets yesterday, Friday, January 17, 2026. Price action largely remained contained within established ranges, with many instruments closing near their daily pivot points. Below is a breakdown of the crucial technical levels for major indices, commodities, and FX pairs.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold concluded yesterday's trading at 4,595.40, operating within a range of 4,539.10 to 4,625.50. The session was largely lateral, with the precious metal settling near the center of its daily fluctuations.

• The primary intraday pivot (P) is positioned at 4,586.67.
• Key support (S1) is seen at 4,547.83, with immediate resistance (R1) at 4,634.23.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude closed at 59.34 yesterday, having traded between 58.81 and 60.05. The energy commodity experienced a mostly sideways day, finishing in the middle of its daily range.

• The central pivot point (P) for intraday trading is 59.40.
• Support (S1) is found at 58.75, while resistance (R1) is marked at 59.99.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair ended the session at 1.1609, after trading within a modest range of 1.1585 to 1.1627. The currency pair demonstrated limited directional conviction, closing near the midpoint of its daily movement.

• The pivot point (P) for today stands at 1.1607.
• Immediate support (S1) is at 1.1587, and resistance (R1) is identified at 1.1629.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 finished yesterday at 25,529.26, trading within a range of 25,444.28 to 25,735.48. The index showed a sideways bias, concluding the day towards the lower end of its daily range.

• The pivotal level (P) is set at 25,569.67.
• Key support (S1) is at 25,403.87, with resistance (R1) at 25,695.07.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed at 6,940.01, having navigated a range from 6,925.09 to 6,967.30. The broader market index saw a generally lateral movement, ending the session in the central part of its range.

• The intraday pivot (P) for the S&P 500 is 6,944.13.
• First support (S1) is at 6,920.97, and first resistance (R1) is at 6,963.18.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed at 25,297.13, with its daily range between 25,198.53 and 25,354.11. The German benchmark index displayed a sideways pattern, closing centrally within its daily trading band.

• The pivot point (P) is calculated at 25,283.26.
• Immediate support (S1) is at 25,212.40, while resistance (R1) is at 25,367.98.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB ended yesterday at 45,800.00, having traded in a range from 45,644.00 to 45,823.00. The Italian index exhibited a largely sideways session, closing towards the upper portion of its daily range.

• The primary pivot (P) is 45,755.67.
• Support (S1) is found at 45,688.33, and resistance (R1) is at 45,867.33.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,677.74, within a range of 2,668.56 to 2,692.23. The small-cap index concluded a mostly lateral session in the middle of its daily trading range.

• The pivot point (P) for the Russell 2000 is 2,679.51.
• Key support (S1) is at 2,666.79, and resistance (R1) is at 2,690.46.

Investors will likely watch these technical thresholds closely as markets open, seeking confirmation of direction or signs of continuation from yesterday's relatively subdued trading.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Shifts

As markets open this Monday, attention remains squarely on volatility metrics and evolving macro trends, particularly concerning the U.S. Dollar and bond yields. The broader market sentiment, as reflected in various volatility indices, suggests a nuanced landscape where caution persists despite a lack of outright panic.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Cross-Asset Snapshot

Equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500), currently stands at approximately 15.9%, aligning closely with its recent average. This indicates no immediate signs of extreme fear or complacency among investors. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) at 20.3% and the GVZ (Gold) at 22.2% are also consistent with their recent historical averages, suggesting a balanced risk perception across these asset classes.

However, a more granular look at the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence between realized and implied volatility. The VIX's implied volatility of around 15.9% is notably above the 10-day realized volatility, which sits at approximately 6.7%. This substantial premium for implied volatility signals that the market is pricing in a considerable risk premium, suggesting expectations for potential future turbulence, even if immediate price swings have been relatively contained.

In commodities, the OVX (Oil volatility) stands out at roughly 43.2%, moderately above its 20-day average. This elevation suggests that the market is willing to pay a higher premium for protection against future price swings in oil, indicating heightened, though not panicked, concern regarding energy market stability. Data for EURUSD (EVZ) and DAX (VDAX) volatility was unavailable, preventing a complete cross-asset comparison in these areas.

U.S. Dollar and Bond Yields: Recent Dynamics

The U.S. Dollar experienced a period of strengthening towards the end of the previous week, driven by robust economic data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials. Comments suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2026, coupled with strong employment figures, underpinned the dollar's upward trajectory against a basket of major currencies.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields saw upward pressure over the past trading week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed, reflecting market adjustments to the Federal Reserve's stance and inflation expectations. This move suggests that investors are anticipating a longer period of higher interest rates, impacting borrowing costs and potentially influencing capital flows globally. The inversion of certain parts of the yield curve, while less pronounced than in earlier periods, continues to be a point of discussion for its recessionary signal, though current economic data suggests resilience.

The interplay between elevated implied volatility, a strengthening dollar, and rising bond yields points to a market grappling with persistent inflation concerns and a Federal Reserve committed to its inflation targets. Investors will be closely watching upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications for further direction.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

Today is Sunday, January 18, 2026. This tactical playbook outlines intraday and multiday scenarios, key support and resistance levels, and potential market triggers for various assets. Investors should note that all biases are currently neutral, suggesting a preference for range-bound strategies unless clear directional triggers are met.

Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC):
  • Daily Pivot: 4,586.67
  • First Support (S1): 4,547.83
  • Second Support (S2): 4,500.27
  • First Resistance (R1): 4,634.23
  • Second Resistance (R2): 4,673.07
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 4,547.83 and 4,634.23, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,586.67 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,673.07 or below 4,500.27.
• WTI Crude (CL):
  • Daily Pivot: 59.40
  • First Support (S1): 58.75
  • Second Support (S2): 58.16
  • First Resistance (R1): 59.99
  • Second Resistance (R2): 60.64
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 58.75 and 59.99, or market-neutral optional structures around the 59.40 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 60.64 or below 58.16.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E):
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1607
  • First Support (S1): 1.1587
  • Second Support (S2): 1.1566
  • First Resistance (R1): 1.1629
  • Second Resistance (R2): 1.1648
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 1.1587 and 1.1629, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1607 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1648 or below 1.1566.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ):
  • Daily Pivot: 25,569.67
  • First Support (S1): 25,403.87
  • Second Support (S2): 25,278.47
  • First Resistance (R1): 25,695.07
  • Second Resistance (R2): 25,860.87
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 25,403.87 and 25,695.07, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,569.67 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,860.87 or below 25,278.47.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY):
  • Daily Pivot: 6,944.13
  • First Support (S1): 6,920.97
  • Second Support (S2): 6,901.92
  • First Resistance (R1): 6,963.18
  • Second Resistance (R2): 6,986.34
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 6,920.97 and 6,963.18, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,944.13 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,986.34 or below 6,901.92.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX):
  • Daily Pivot: 25,283.26
  • First Support (S1): 25,212.40
  • Second Support (S2): 25,127.68
  • First Resistance (R1): 25,367.98
  • Second Resistance (R2): 25,438.84
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 25,212.40 and 25,367.98, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,283.26 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,438.84 or below 25,127.68.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO):
  • Daily Pivot: 45,755.67
  • First Support (S1): 45,688.33
  • Second Support (S2): 45,576.67
  • First Resistance (R1): 45,867.33
  • Second Resistance (R2): 45,934.67
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 45,688.33 and 45,867.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 45,755.67 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 45,934.67 or below 45,576.67.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM):
  • Daily Pivot: 2,679.51
  • First Support (S1): 2,666.79
  • Second Support (S2): 2,655.84
  • First Resistance (R1): 2,690.46
  • Second Resistance (R2): 2,703.18
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 2,666.79 and 2,690.46, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,679.51 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,703.18 or below 2,655.84.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative instruments and leverage involves a high level of risk.