Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: US Equities Observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day Closure

As Monday, January 19, 2026, unfolds, US equity markets, including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, remain closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. This federal holiday means there will be no pre-market, regular, or after-hours trading sessions for stocks. US bond markets and most banks are also closed, with normal operations expected to resume on Tuesday, January 20, 2026.

While trading floors are quiet, the broader market sentiment ahead of the holiday has been characterized by a mixed tone, with equity indices lacking a strong directional bias. Sector rotations and selective capital flows have been prominent. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, sits at intermediate levels, suggesting the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, though without signs of systemic stress.

Looking ahead to Tuesday's reopening, investors will be keenly awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts. The general outlook for 2026 anticipates positive returns, albeit with potential volatility, influenced by factors such as anticipated Fed rate cuts and solid profit growth, despite stretched valuations in the US market. Key drivers for market movements are expected to remain the differential policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, along with incoming inflation and labor market data.

Given the market closure, there are no specific pre-market top movers to report today. Upon resumption of trading, activity will likely be guided by any overnight global developments and the ongoing search for new catalysts. Tactical plays around established support and resistance levels are anticipated, with market participants remaining attentive to sudden headlines that could influence selective sector flows.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Monday, January 19, 2026

Today's markets present a largely cautious tone as investors await fresh catalysts. Global equities are experiencing a period of consolidation following recent movements, with a moderate macro calendar set to influence sentiment throughout the day.

Asia

Asian markets displayed limited directional strength overnight, with contained movements observed across the region. Focus remains primarily on local news and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. Investors will be closely watching for cues from major indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng Index, though neither appears to be setting a strong trend early this morning.

Europe

European futures are currently showing little movement, pointing to a neutral start for the trading day. The broader European equity landscape, including benchmarks like the DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50, appears poised for consolidation as investors await new macroeconomic or political developments to provide clearer direction.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The economic calendar for today, while of moderate overall significance, contains several publications that could influence market sentiment for both indices and foreign exchange.

• This morning will see the release of various confidence and production indicators across the Eurozone, alongside other local updates. These releases may offer initial insights into the health of the regional economy.
• In the afternoon, attention will shift to the United States with the release of key data points relating to inflation, employment, or economic activity (depending on the specific day's schedule). These U.S. figures are particularly crucial and could significantly impact the EUR/USD exchange rate and U.S. equity indices.
• Looking into the evening, any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (January 19, 2026)

Good morning, traders. As we commence the trading week, here's a technical overview of key assets and indices based on yesterday's closing data, January 19, 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a clearly bullish session yesterday, closing in the middle of its daily range after trading between 4,622.20 and 4,698.00. The precious metal finished at 4,671.40. Key classic pivot points for today are:

• Pivot (P): 4,663.87
• Support 1 (S1): 4,629.73
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,705.53
• Support 2 (S2): 4,588.07
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,739.67

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude saw a largely sideways session, closing at 59.17, centrally within its daily range of 58.60 – 59.56. Technical levels to watch include:

• Pivot (P): 59.11
• Support 1 (S1): 58.66
• Resistance 1 (R1): 59.62
• Support 2 (S2): 58.15
• Resistance 2 (R2): 60.07

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair also traded in a largely sideways session, closing in the upper part of its daily range at 1.1628. Yesterday's range was between 1.1577 and 1.1644. Important pivot levels are:

• Pivot (P): 1.1616
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1588
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1656
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1549
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1684

US Equity Indices

US indices generally experienced largely sideways sessions. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed lower in its daily range at 25,529.26, having traded between 25,444.28 and 25,735.48. Its classic pivot is at 25,569.67, with S1 at 25,403.87 and R1 at 25,695.07.

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed in the middle of its daily range at 6,940.01, with a range of 6,925.09 – 6,967.30. Its pivot stands at 6,944.13, S1 at 6,920.97, and R1 at 6,963.18.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) also closed in the middle of its daily range at 2,677.74, within a range of 2,668.56 – 2,692.23. Its classic pivot is at 2,679.51, S1 at 2,666.79, and R1 at 2,690.46.

European Equity Indices

European markets also showed largely sideways movement. The DAX (DE40 / GER40) closed centrally in its daily range at 25,297.13, with yesterday's range being 25,198.53 – 25,354.11. Its pivot is at 25,283.26, S1 at 25,212.40, and R1 at 25,367.98.

The FTSE MIB closed in the upper part of its daily range at 45,800.00, trading between 45,644.00 and 45,823.00. Key levels include a pivot at 45,755.67, S1 at 45,688.33, and R1 at 45,867.33.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Dynamics and Shifting Yields Drive Investor Focus

Global markets open this Monday with a nuanced picture of volatility and a keen eye on evolving currency and bond dynamics. While equity volatility indices remain largely subdued, underlying market components suggest a heightened risk premium, particularly in the US equity space.

Equity Volatility in Focus

• The VIX (S&P 500), a key gauge of implied volatility for the S&P 500, currently sits around 15.9%. This level aligns with its recent average, indicating no overt signs of extreme fear or complacency in the broader market.
• Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100), at approximately 20.3%, is also in line with its recent mean, suggesting a similar sentiment within technology-heavy indices.
• However, a closer look at the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence between implied and realized volatility. The implied volatility priced by the VIX, at roughly 15.9%, is substantially above the 10-day realized volatility of approximately 6.7%. This considerable premium in the VIX suggests that the market is pricing in an elevated risk ahead, demanding a higher cost for protection.

Cross-Asset Volatility Snapshot

• Across other asset classes, the GVZ (Gold Volatility Index) is at approximately 22.2%, consistent with its recent average, indicating stability in the precious metal market.
• In contrast, the OVX (Oil Volatility Index) stands at about 43.2%, which is moderately above its 20-day average. This suggests that the market is currently paying for protection in the oil sector, though without exhibiting outright panic.
• Data for EVZ (EURUSD Volatility) and VDAX (DAX Volatility) are currently unavailable, posing a temporary blind spot in our comprehensive volatility overview.

USD Finds Strength Amid Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown resilience, marking a third consecutive weekly advance and strengthening by nearly 1.8% off its December lows. The DXY closed Friday, January 16, 2026, at 99.3791, up 0.06% from the previous session, and held steady around 99.3. Over the past month, the dollar has gained 1.03%, although it remains down 9.12% over the last 12 months. This recent strength has been bolstered by stronger-than-expected US economic data, including robust retail sales and jobless claims, which have tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair, while seeing a slight uptick in early Friday trading, is anticipated by some to weaken further given the prevailing bullish dollar trend and having traded below 1.1600 on Thursday.

Bond Yields Climb on Fed and Data Outlook

US Treasury yields have been on an upward trajectory. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 4.23% on January 16, 2026, increasing 0.05 percentage points from the prior session and 0.06 points over the past month. It further advanced to 4.24% on the same day. For the week ending January 19, 2026, the 10-year yield climbed 3.4 basis points to finish at 4.203%. The 30-year bond yield also saw an increase, reaching 4.804% on Friday, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 3.611%. This upward movement in yields reflects investor reactions to strong economic data, which reinforces the view that the US economy is robust enough to sustain a "higher-for-longer" rate environment. Political developments around the Federal Reserve also contributed to investors demanding higher compensation for long-duration debt. The spread between the two- and 10-year Treasury notes currently stands at a positive 59 basis points. US bond markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Jr Day.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Today's Tactical Playbook

Monday, January 19, 2026

Today's market outlook suggests a predominantly neutral bias across major assets, favoring range-trading strategies. Key directional triggers are identified for potential breakouts.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Pivot: 4,664.20

• Supports: S1 4,630.40, S2 4,588.40
• Resistances: R1 4,706.20, R2 4,740.00

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 4,630.40 and 4,706.20, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 4,664.20. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 4,740.00 or below 4,588.40.

WTI Crude (CL)

Pivot: 59.10

• Supports: S1 58.65, S2 58.14
• Resistances: R1 59.61, R2 60.06

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 58.65 and 59.61, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 59.10. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 60.06 or below 58.14.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

Pivot: 1.1616

• Supports: S1 1.1588, S2 1.1549
• Resistances: R1 1.1656, R2 1.1684

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 1.1588 and 1.1656, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 1.1616. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 1.1684 or below 1.1549.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

Pivot: 25,569.67

• Supports: S1 25,403.87, S2 25,278.47
• Resistances: R1 25,695.07, R2 25,860.87

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 25,403.87 and 25,695.07, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 25,569.67. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 25,860.87 or below 25,278.47.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

Pivot: 6,944.13

• Supports: S1 6,920.97, S2 6,901.92
• Resistances: R1 6,963.18, R2 6,986.34

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 6,920.97 and 6,963.18, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 6,944.13. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 6,986.34 or below 6,901.92.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

Pivot: 25,283.26

• Supports: S1 25,212.40, S2 25,127.68
• Resistances: R1 25,367.98, R2 25,438.84

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 25,212.40 and 25,367.98, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 25,283.26. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 25,438.84 or below 25,127.68.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

Pivot: 45,755.67

• Supports: S1 45,688.33, S2 45,576.67
• Resistances: R1 45,867.33, R2 45,934.67

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 45,688.33 and 45,867.33, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 45,755.67. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 45,934.67 or below 45,576.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

Pivot: 2,679.51

• Supports: S1 2,666.79, S2 2,655.84
• Resistances: R1 2,690.46, R2 2,703.18

Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 2,666.79 and 2,690.46, or market-neutral option structures around the pivot of 2,679.51. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on breakouts above 2,703.18 or below 2,655.84.