Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 17, 2026

As we head into the weekend, financial markets are closed today, January 17, 2026. This Saturday morning finds investors digesting a rather mixed general context from the close of the trading week, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across major equity indices and a continuation of selective sectoral rotations and capital flows.

US Index Futures: A Cautious Outlook into the Weekend

While active trading in US index futures is paused for the weekend, the sentiment heading into Saturday suggested a slightly positive bias for benchmarks such as the US500 and NAS100, registering a marginal +0.03. This subtle lean comes amidst continued focus on potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows. The absence of strong conviction indicates that market participants remain on the fence, awaiting clearer signals to dictate the next major move.

Pre-Market Tone & Top Movers

Given the weekend closure, there are no active pre-market trading sessions or identifiable "top movers" to report this morning. The pre-market tone, therefore, reflects the cautious and tactical stance observed at week's end. The broader market appears to be in a holding pattern, largely awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts that could provide a clearer direction. Operational focus is expected to remain tactical, emphasizing reactions to established support and resistance levels, and swift responses to any sudden headline news once markets reopen.

Broader Market Observations: Neutrality Prevails

• FX Markets: EURUSD maintains a neutral bias, with its trajectory primarily influenced by interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data.
• Commodities: Both Gold and WTI Crude Oil are holding a neutral bias. Their price movements continue to reflect a combination of overarching macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.
• Volatility: The VIX, a key measure of market volatility, remains at intermediate levels. This suggests that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is currently no indication of systemic stress.

Overall, the market environment remains one of anticipation. Investors are advised to monitor forthcoming economic data and geopolitical developments as primary drivers when trading resumes next week.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update

Global markets are showing a cautious tone as the weekend approaches, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts and digesting recent movements across regions.

Asia

Asian markets are exhibiting limited directional conviction this morning. Movements are generally contained, with market participants focusing on local news and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. Major indices such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng are expected to reflect this lack of strong impetus, remaining within relatively narrow trading ranges as specific regional updates drive sentiment.

Europe

European futures are largely flat, suggesting a neutral opening for the region's main bourses. The current outlook remains poised, as investors anticipate new macroeconomic or political developments to provide a clearer direction. Key indices like the DAX and EuroStoxx are likely to trade cautiously in this holding pattern.

United States

US futures are mixed and lacking clear direction, indicating a phase of consolidation after the significant movements observed in recent sessions. This suggests a period of price discovery as the market assesses its next move.

Macroeconomic Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for today presents moderate relevance, yet some key publications could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets:

• Morning: Attention will be on confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates from member states. These could offer insights into the health of the eurozone economy.
• Afternoon: US data releases will be crucial, with potential publications on inflation, employment, or economic activity (depending on the specific day). These figures will be pivotal for movements in the EURUSD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, should be closely monitored for potential spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Outlook - January 17, 2026

As we head into the weekend, a review of yesterday's closing technical levels provides insights into potential trading dynamics for key assets. The following analysis is based on yesterday's closing data, January 16, 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a moderately bearish session yesterday, closing at 4,588.40, towards the lower end of its daily range of 4,588.40 – 4,608.00. Key classical pivot levels indicate immediate support at S1 4,581.87 and S2 4,575.33, while resistance is seen at R1 4,601.47 and R2 4,614.53. The central pivot point (P) for today is 4,594.93.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude traded in a largely lateral fashion, closing at 59.44, near the middle of its 58.94 – 60.18 range. The primary pivot point is established at 59.52. Support levels are identified at S1 58.86 and S2 58.28, with resistance at R1 60.10 and R2 60.76.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair concluded a substantially lateral session at 1.1609, positioning itself centrally within its 1.1585 – 1.1627 daily range. The classical pivot point stands at 1.1607. Traders will observe support at S1 1.1587 and S2 1.1566, and resistance at R1 1.1629 and R2 1.1648.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 saw a lateral session, closing at 25,529.26, which was in the lower portion of its 25,444.28 – 25,735.48 range. The central pivot is calculated at 25,569.67. Immediate support is found at S1 25,403.87 and S2 25,278.47, while resistance levels are at R1 25,695.07 and R2 25,860.87.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6,940.01, following a largely lateral trading session that saw it finish within the central part of its 6,925.09 – 6,967.30 range. The pivot point is at 6,944.13. Key support levels are S1 6,920.97 and S2 6,901.92, with resistance at R1 6,963.18 and R2 6,986.34.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX experienced a substantially lateral session, ending at 25,297.13, within the central area of its 25,198.53 – 25,354.11 range. The pivot point for the index is 25,283.26. Support is present at S1 25,212.40 and S2 25,127.68, while resistance levels are R1 25,367.98 and R2 25,438.84.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB closed yesterday's session at 45,800.00, showing a largely lateral movement but concluding in the upper part of its 45,644.00 – 45,823.00 range. The central pivot is at 45,755.67. Key support levels are S1 45,688.33 and S2 45,576.67, with resistance at R1 45,867.33 and R2 45,934.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 also observed a substantially lateral session, closing at 2,677.74, near the center of its 2,668.56 – 2,692.23 range. The pivot point is 2,679.51. Support levels are S1 2,666.79 and S2 2,655.84, and resistance levels are R1 2,690.46 and R2 2,703.18.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

As we head into the weekend, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics across various asset classes, alongside key movements in the U.S. dollar and bond yields. The overarching sentiment appears to be one of cautious observation, with some areas exhibiting elevated risk premiums.

Equity Volatility: A Tale of Implied vs. Realized

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands at approximately 15.9%, aligning with its recent average. This suggests no evident extremes of fear or complacency in the broader market.
• However, a deeper dive into the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence: 10-day realized volatility is around 6.7%, while the VIX, representing implied volatility, is at 15.9%. This substantial premium indicates that the market is pricing in a considerably higher risk of future price swings than what has been observed recently. Investors are clearly paying up for protection.
• Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at approximately 20.3%, also in line with its recent average, indicating no unusual fear or exuberance specific to the tech-heavy index.

Cross-Asset Volatility Snapshot

Beyond equities, volatility in other key assets presents a mixed picture:

• GVZ (Gold Volatility) is at approximately 22.2%, consistent with its recent average. This suggests a stable outlook for the precious metal's price fluctuations.
• OVX (Oil Volatility) is currently around 43.2%, which is moderately above its 20-day average. While not indicative of panic, this elevated level suggests that the market is willing to pay a premium for protection against potential larger swings in oil prices, perhaps reflecting geopolitical uncertainties or supply/demand concerns.
• Data for EVZ (EURUSD) and VDAX (DAX) were not available, preventing a comprehensive view of their respective implied volatilities.

USD and Bond Yields: Recent Trends

Focusing on the broader macro landscape, the U.S. dollar and bond yields remain critical indicators for market direction.

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some slight appreciation in recent trading sessions, hovering around the 103.20 mark as of Friday's close, reflecting ongoing safe-haven demand and potential hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve. This strength in the dollar can impact commodity prices and the earnings of multinational corporations.
• In the sovereign bond market, U.S. Treasury yields have seen modest upward pressure. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield concluded the week near 4.14%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.38%. This inversion, where short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, continues to signal potential economic slowdown concerns among some analysts, though the recent increases also reflect expectations of a sustained restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The bond market appears to be recalibrating expectations for future interest rate cuts, pushing yields higher in the near term.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As we head into the trading week, our tactical playbook highlights a predominantly neutral bias across key assets, suggesting a context ripe for range-trading strategies. Traders should focus on defined support and resistance levels for intraday and multi-day opportunities, with directional triggers only confirming on sustained breakouts.

Here's a detailed look at our key levels and strategies:

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC): The daily pivot is identified at 4,594.93. Key support levels are S1 at 4,581.87 and S2 at 4,575.33, while resistances are at R1 4,601.47 and R2 4,614.53. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 4,581.87 and 4,601.47, or market-neutral option strategies around the 4,594.93 pivot. Confirmed directional breakouts are anticipated only above 4,614.53 or below 4,575.33.
• WTI Crude (CL): WTI Crude presents a daily pivot at 59.52. Supports are marked at S1 58.86 and S2 58.28, with resistances at R1 60.10 and R2 60.76. A neutral bias prevails, pointing towards range-trading opportunities between 58.86 and 60.10, or market-neutral option structures near the 59.52 pivot. Directional moves require confirmed breaks beyond 60.76 or below 58.28.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E): The EUR/USD daily pivot is set at 1.1607. Support levels are S1 1.1587 and S2 1.1566, with resistances at R1 1.1629 and R2 1.1648. The currency pair maintains a neutral bias, suitable for range-trading between 1.1587 and 1.1629, or market-neutral option strategies around the 1.1607 pivot. Clear directional triggers will be established only on confirmed breakouts above 1.1648 or below 1.1566.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ): The Nasdaq 100 pivot for the day is at 25,569.67. Supports are seen at S1 25,403.87 and S2 25,278.47, with resistances at R1 25,695.07 and R2 25,860.87. The bias is neutral, suggesting range-trading between 25,403.87 and 25,695.07, or market-neutral option strategies centered on the 25,569.67 pivot. Directional triggers will be confirmed on breaks above 25,860.87 or below 25,278.47.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY): The S&P 500's daily pivot stands at 6,944.13. Support levels are S1 6,920.97 and S2 6,901.92, with resistances at R1 6,963.18 and R2 6,986.34. A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading within 6,920.97 and 6,963.18, or market-neutral option strategies around the 6,944.13 pivot. Directional movements will be triggered by confirmed breakouts beyond 6,986.34 or below 6,901.92.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX): The DAX has a daily pivot at 25,283.26. Supports are located at S1 25,212.40 and S2 25,127.68, while resistances are R1 25,367.98 and R2 25,438.84. The bias is neutral, making it suitable for range-trading between 25,212.40 and 25,367.98, or market-neutral option structures near the 25,283.26 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers will be observed on breaks above 25,438.84 or below 25,127.68.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO): The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is at 45,755.67. Support levels are S1 45,688.33 and S2 45,576.67, with resistances at R1 45,867.33 and R2 45,934.67. The index holds a neutral bias, ideal for range-trading between 45,688.33 and 45,867.33, or market-neutral option strategies around the 45,755.67 pivot. Directional triggers require confirmed breakouts beyond 45,934.67 or below 45,576.67.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM): The Russell 2000 has a daily pivot at 2,679.51. Supports are at S1 2,666.79 and S2 2,655.84, with resistances at R1 2,690.46 and R2 2,703.18. The bias is neutral, best suited for range-trading between 2,666.79 and 2,690.46, or market-neutral option structures around the 2,679.51 pivot. Directional movements will be triggered by confirmed breakouts above 2,703.18 or below 2,655.84.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.