Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets Update - January 16, 2026

Good Friday morning. The broader market landscape remains nuanced today, characterized by a mixed tone with equity indices lacking a strong directional bias. We continue to observe notable sector rotations and highly selective capital flows across the board.

US Index Futures & Pre-market Tone

US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are indicating a marginally positive bias, currently sitting at +0.03 in pre-market trading. This subtle upward tilt suggests a cautious start to the session. Market participants are closely monitoring for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, which could signal short-term directional shifts. The pre-market tone is largely neutral, reflecting the absence of major catalysts and a 'wait-and-see' approach as investors digest existing information and await new developments.

Volatility & Tactical Focus

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains at intermediate levels. This implies that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress. From a tactical perspective, the day is expected to be largely driven by the anticipation of fresh macroeconomic catalysts. Operations will likely remain highly tactical, focusing on established support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to pay close attention to sudden headline news, which could trigger swift movements in this environment of selective flows and moderate uncertainty.

Key Observations for Top Movers

Given the prevailing environment of mixed indices and selective flows, individual equity performance, and thus the emergence of 'top movers,' is anticipated to be highly stock-specific. Rather than broad market momentum, attention will be on companies reporting specific news, analyst revisions, or those positioned within sectors currently favored by rotational flows. Investors should be prepared for discerning opportunities arising from micro-level developments rather than widespread market surges.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets - January 16, 2026

Global markets enter Friday with a somewhat subdued tone, as investors await fresh catalysts to dictate direction. Following recent movements, a phase of consolidation appears to be underway across key regions.

Asia

Asian markets exhibited limited strong directional bias overnight, with movements generally contained. The focus remains keenly on localized news flows and upcoming economic data from key regional economies, particularly China and Japan. Investors will be closely monitoring indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng for any signs of renewed momentum or further consolidation as they digest regional developments.

Europe

European futures are signaling a largely flat open, indicating a neutral sentiment as the trading week draws to a close. The broader picture for European equities, including the DAX and EuroStoxx 50, remains poised, with market participants patiently awaiting new macroeconomic data or significant political developments to provide clearer direction.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar is of moderate significance, yet it contains several publications that could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange pairs.

• Morning: The early part of the day will feature various confidence indicators and industrial production data from the Eurozone, alongside other local updates. These releases will offer insights into the health and sentiment of the European economy.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States in the afternoon with key data releases, potentially encompassing inflation figures, labor market statistics, or broader activity indicators. These reports will be crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and overall US equity market performance.
• Evening: The late session could see speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (BCE), along with financial condition statistics. Such events warrant close monitoring for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels

As we approach the weekend on this Friday, January 16, 2026, here's a technical overview of key instruments, with levels calculated based on yesterday's closing data.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,613.60
• Yesterday's Range: 4,594.60 – 4,625.50
• Classic Pivots: P 4,611.23 · S1 4,596.97 · R1 4,627.87 · S2 4,580.33 · R2 4,642.13
• Context: Gold experienced a largely sideways session, concluding in the central part of its daily trading range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 59.30
• Yesterday's Range: 58.81 – 59.33
• Classic Pivots: P 59.15 · S1 58.96 · R1 59.48 · S2 58.63 · R2 59.67
• Context: WTI Crude also traded in a predominantly lateral fashion, closing towards the upper end of its daily range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1617
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1606 – 1.1617
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1614 · S1 1.1610 · R1 1.1621 · S2 1.1603 · R2 1.1624
• Context: The EUR/USD pair saw a generally sideways session, with the close positioned in the upper portion of its daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,547.07
• Yesterday's Range: 25,520.20 – 25,781.03
• Classic Pivots: P 25,616.10 · S1 25,451.17 · R1 25,712.00 · S2 25,355.27 · R2 25,876.93
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a largely sideways session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,944.47
• Yesterday's Range: 6,937.93 – 6,979.34
• Classic Pivots: P 6,953.91 · S1 6,928.49 · R1 6,969.90 · S2 6,912.50 · R2 6,995.32
• Context: The S&P 500 also displayed a predominantly sideways trading pattern, ending the session in the lower portion of its daily range.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,352.39
• Yesterday's Range: 25,233.32 – 25,378.55
• Classic Pivots: P 25,321.42 · S1 25,264.29 · R1 25,409.52 · S2 25,176.19 · R2 25,466.65
• Context: The DAX observed a sideways session, with its closing price situated in the upper part of its daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 45,850.00
• Yesterday's Range: 45,714.00 – 45,926.00
• Classic Pivots: P 45,830.00 · S1 45,734.00 · R1 45,946.00 · S2 45,618.00 · R2 46,042.00
• Context: The FTSE MIB traded in a largely sideways manner, closing in the central part of its daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Market Volatility Snapshot

A look at market volatility this Friday reveals a nuanced picture across various asset classes, with equity fear gauges holding steady while some commodity volatility shows moderate elevation.

Equity Volatility: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

The **VIX (S&P 500)** currently sits at approximately 15.8%, remaining in line with its recent average. This suggests no clear excess of either fear or complacency is evident in the broader market. Similarly, the **VXN (Nasdaq 100)** is trading around 20.2%, also aligning with its recent mean, indicating a balanced sentiment for technology stocks. However, a closer look at the S&P 500's volatility reveals a significant premium for implied volatility over realized. The VIX's implied volatility of ~15.8% is notably above the 10-day realized volatility of ~6.6%, indicating a substantial risk premium is being priced into options for the S&P 500. This elevated risk premium could suggest underlying caution despite the headline VIX level being within its average range.

Cross-Asset Volatility: Gold and Oil

In the commodities space, **GVZ (Gold volatility)** is approximately 22.1%, which is consistent with its recent average, implying stable expectations for gold price movements. In contrast, **OVX (Oil volatility)** stands at around 42.1%, moderately above its 20-day average. This suggests the market is currently paying a premium for protection against potential oil price swings, though without signs of outright panic.

Currency and Fixed Income Volatility

Commentary on specific currency volatility, such as for the EURUSD (EVZ), is currently limited as data is unavailable. Similarly, comprehensive data on bond yields is not available, which restricts our ability to provide detailed analysis on fixed income market volatility and its implications at this time.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday and Multi-Day Tactical Playbook – Friday, January 16, 2026

Today's trading session presents a generally neutral bias across major assets, favoring range-trading strategies and market-neutral options. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for potential directional triggers.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,611.03
• Support Levels: S1 at 4,596.57, S2 at 4,580.13
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 4,627.47, R2 at 4,641.93
• Bias: Neutral. The context is suitable for range-trading between 4,596.57 and 4,627.47, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,611.03 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 4,641.93 or below 4,580.13.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 59.15
• Support Levels: S1 at 58.97, S2 at 58.63
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 59.49, R2 at 59.67
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading approach between 58.97 and 59.49 is advisable, or market-neutral options around the 59.15 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 59.67 or below 58.63.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1614
• Support Levels: S1 at 1.1610, S2 at 1.1603
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1621, R2 at 1.1624
• Bias: Neutral. The current environment supports range-trading between 1.1610 and 1.1621, or market-neutral optional structures centered on the 1.1614 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1624 or below 1.1603.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,616.10
• Support Levels: S1 at 25,451.17, S2 at 25,355.27
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,712.00, R2 at 25,876.93
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 25,451.17 and 25,712.00 is favored, alongside market-neutral options around the 25,616.10 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 25,876.93 or below 25,355.27.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,953.91
• Support Levels: S1 at 6,928.49, S2 at 6,912.50
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,969.90, R2 at 6,995.32
• Bias: Neutral. Strategies focused on range-trading between 6,928.49 and 6,969.90, or market-neutral options around the 6,953.91 pivot, are recommended.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 6,995.32 or below 6,912.50.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 25,321.42
• Support Levels: S1 at 25,264.29, S2 at 25,176.19
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,409.52, R2 at 25,466.65
• Bias: Neutral. The current setup is conducive to range-trading between 25,264.29 and 25,409.52, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,321.42 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 25,466.65 or below 25,176.19.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 45,830.00
• Support Levels: S1 at 45,734.00, S2 at 45,618.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 45,946.00, R2 at 46,042.00
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 45,734.00 and 45,946.00, or market-neutral options around the 45,830.00 pivot, are the preferred strategies.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 46,042.00 or below 45,618.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,674.38
• Support Levels: S1 at 2,659.47, S2 at 2,644.39
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,689.46, R2 at 2,704.37
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading strategy between 2,659.47 and 2,689.46, or market-neutral options around the 2,674.38 pivot, is recommended.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 2,704.37 or below 2,644.39.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a public solicitation for savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.