Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Thursday, January 15, 2026

Markets are exhibiting a mixed sentiment this Thursday morning, lacking strong directional conviction as we observe ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows.

US Equity Futures:

• US equity futures, including the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100), are indicating a slight positive bias in pre-market trading, with an average bias around +0.03.
• Traders are advised to pay close attention to potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, as these technical levels may dictate intraday movements.

Pre-Market Tone & Volatility:

• The broader market tone suggests a moderate risk environment. The VIX, often seen as the market's 'fear gauge', is holding at intermediate levels. This implies the market is pricing in the possibility of tactical corrections but without indicating any immediate systemic stress.

FX & Commodities Snapshot:

• In currency markets, EURUSD maintains a neutral bias, with its trajectory primarily influenced by the differential in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data.
• Commodities, specifically gold and WTI crude oil, also exhibit a neutral bias. Their movements are currently reflecting a combination of overarching macroeconomic factors and specific news flow related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Tactical Outlook for the Day:

• Today's trading environment is characterized by an anticipation of new macroeconomic catalysts.
• Given the lack of strong directional cues, a more tactical approach is recommended, focusing on operations around established support and resistance levels.
• Vigilance for sudden, market-moving headlines remains paramount. While specific "top movers" are not yet evident, the selective nature of current flows suggests individual stock and sector performance will be highly responsive to fresh news.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Thursday, January 15, 2026

Global markets begin Thursday with a largely cautious and non-committal tone, as investors await fresh catalysts to dictate direction. Today's focus will remain on regional data and potential policy signals amidst a moderate macroeconomic calendar.

Asian Markets Asian markets are exhibiting a lack of strong directional conviction this morning. Movements across major indices, including the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng, remain contained as participants largely focus on local news and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. The absence of a strong impetus suggests a period of consolidation following recent sessions.

European Markets European futures are signaling a similarly muted open, with both the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 futures seeing limited movement. The overall picture for European equities remains neutral for now, as investors are positioned defensively, awaiting new macroeconomic or political developments that could provide clearer guidance. Attention will be on confidence indicators and production data from the Eurozone throughout the morning.

Macro Calendar (CET) The macroeconomic calendar for Thursday is of moderate significance, though several key publications have the potential to influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The early hours will see the release of various confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside localized updates. These figures will be closely watched for insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Focus will shift to the United States with releases pertaining to inflation, employment, or activity data (specifics depending on the day). These reports are typically pivotal for the EURUSD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, will be important to monitor for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - January 15, 2026

As we head into Thursday's trading session, here's a look at the key technical levels for major assets, based on yesterday's closing data.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,613.50
• Yesterday's Range: 4,584.50 – 4,637.20
• Classic Pivots: P 4,611.73 · S1 4,586.27 · R1 4,638.97 · S2 4,559.03 · R2 4,664.43
• Context: Gold experienced an essentially sideways session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 59.98
• Yesterday's Range: 59.82 – 61.14
• Classic Pivots: P 60.31 · S1 59.49 · R1 60.81 · S2 58.99 · R2 61.63
• Context: WTI Crude saw a clearly bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1633
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1631 – 1.1652
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1639 · S1 1.1625 · R1 1.1647 · S2 1.1617 · R2 1.1660
• Context: EUR/USD recorded an essentially sideways session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,465.94
• Yesterday's Range: 25,266.20 – 25,624.19
• Classic Pivots: P 25,452.11 · S1 25,280.03 · R1 25,638.02 · S2 25,094.12 · R2 25,810.10
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a moderately bearish session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,926.60
• Yesterday's Range: 6,885.74 – 6,941.30
• Classic Pivots: P 6,917.88 · S1 6,894.46 · R1 6,950.02 · S2 6,862.32 · R2 6,973.44
• Context: The S&P 500 saw a moderately bearish session, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,286.24
• Yesterday's Range: 25,268.27 – 25,461.36
• Classic Pivots: P 25,338.62 · S1 25,215.89 · R1 25,408.98 · S2 25,145.53 · R2 25,531.71
• Context: The DAX had a moderately bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 45,647.00
• Yesterday's Range: 45,524.00 – 45,791.00
• Classic Pivots: P 45,654.00 · S1 45,517.00 · R1 45,784.00 · S2 45,387.00 · R2 45,921.00
• Context: The FTSE MIB experienced an essentially sideways session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,651.64
• Yesterday's Range: 2,624.29 – 2,653.31
• Classic Pivots: P 2,643.08 · S1 2,632.85 · R1 2,661.87 · S2 2,614.06 · R2 2,672.10
• Context: The Russell 2000 saw a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Premiums Remain Elevated Amidst Stronger Dollar and Steady Yields

Good morning, markets. As of Thursday, January 15, 2026, we observe a nuanced picture across asset classes, with volatility metrics suggesting a cautious stance, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and stable, albeit slightly rising, bond yields.

Volatility Overview: Implied vs. Realized Dynamics

• Equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500) at approximately 16.8% and the VXN (Nasdaq 100) at around 21.0%, remains broadly in line with recent averages. This suggests no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency permeating the broader equity indices.
• Similarly, gold volatility, indicated by GVZ (Gold) at roughly 23.6%, aligns with its recent average.
• However, the OVX (Oil) stands out at approximately 44.2%, moderately above its 20-day average, indicating that the market is pricing in some protection for potential swings in oil prices, though without signaling outright panic.
• A crucial observation lies in the divergence between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500. With 10-day realized volatility at about 7.9% compared to a VIX of approximately 16.8%, the implied volatility priced by the VIX is significantly above the recently realized volatility. This elevated risk premium suggests that investors are willing to pay a substantial amount for protection against future downside movements, reflecting underlying caution in market sentiment.

U.S. Dollar Performance

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading positively around 99.15 in the early European session today, strengthening above the 99.00 mark. This upward movement is primarily attributed to robust U.S. Retail Sales data released on Wednesday, which showed a 0.6% month-over-month increase in November following a contraction in October. The dollar has seen a 0.10% increase from the previous session and has appreciated by 1.03% over the past month. This strengthening suggests continued investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook amidst ongoing discussions around Federal Reserve policy and potential rate cuts later in the year.

Bond Market Dynamics

In the fixed income market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury Note rose slightly to 4.15% on January 15, 2026, marking a modest 0.01 percentage point increase from the prior session. This yield is currently lower than its position a year ago (4.78%) and also below the long-term average of 4.25%. Earlier in the week, the 10-year yield had tested four-month highs around 4.2% but subsequently fell to approximately 4.14%. Markets are actively assessing the Federal Reserve's potential path for rate cuts this year, with recent data, including producer prices, indicating a cooler inflationary environment that could provide the central bank room to prioritize a stagnating labor market. However, the overall stability in yields suggests a market awaiting further clarity on monetary policy direction.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

As we begin Thursday's trading session, the overarching theme across major assets suggests a neutral bias, indicating a prevailing environment suited for range-trading strategies. Traders should focus on identified support and resistance levels for potential entry and exit points, with directional moves contingent upon confirmed breakouts beyond established boundaries.

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC): Gold's daily pivot is set at 4,611.67. Key support levels are identified at S1 4,586.13 and S2 4,558.97, while resistance levels are R1 4,638.83 and R2 4,664.37. The bias remains neutral, making the current context suitable for range-trading strategies between 4,586.13 and 4,638.83, or the deployment of market-neutral optional structures around the 4,611.67 pivot. Directional triggers would require confirmed breakouts beyond 4,664.37 or below 4,558.97.
• WTI Crude (CL): WTI Crude maintains a daily pivot at 60.31. Support is found at S1 59.49 and S2 58.99, with resistances at R1 60.81 and R2 61.63. A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading between 59.49 and 60.81, or employing market-neutral optional strategies around the 60.31 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers are anticipated only with breakouts beyond 61.63 or below 58.99.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E): The EUR/USD daily pivot stands at 1.1639. Support levels are S1 1.1625 and S2 1.1617, with resistances at R1 1.1647 and R2 1.1660. The bias is neutral, suggesting range-trading between 1.1625 and 1.1647, or utilizing market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1639 pivot. Directional momentum will likely only be established on confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1660 or below 1.1617.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ): The Nasdaq 100 daily pivot is positioned at 25,452.11. Key supports are S1 25,280.03 and S2 25,094.12, while resistances are R1 25,638.02 and R2 25,810.10. With a neutral bias, the environment is conducive to range-trading between 25,280.03 and 25,638.02, or employing market-neutral optional strategies around the 25,452.11 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers are expected only on breakouts above 25,810.10 or below 25,094.12.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY): The S&P 500's daily pivot is at 6,917.88. Support levels are S1 6,894.46 and S2 6,862.32, with resistances at R1 6,950.02 and R2 6,973.44. A neutral bias indicates suitability for range-trading between 6,894.46 and 6,950.02, or the use of market-neutral optional structures around the 6,917.88 pivot. Directional triggers will be confirmed only on breakouts beyond 6,973.44 or below 6,862.32.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX): The DAX maintains a daily pivot at 25,338.62. Supports are S1 25,215.89 and S2 25,145.53, with resistances at R1 25,408.98 and R2 25,531.71. The neutral bias suggests range-trading between 25,215.89 and 25,408.98, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 25,338.62 pivot. Directional movement will be triggered by confirmed breakouts beyond 25,531.71 or below 25,145.53.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO): The FTSE MIB daily pivot is set at 45,654.00. Key support levels are S1 45,517.00 and S2 45,387.00, while resistances are R1 45,784.00 and R2 45,921.00. The neutral bias favors range-trading between 45,517.00 and 45,784.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 45,654.00 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers will occur on breakouts beyond 45,921.00 or below 45,387.00.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM): The Russell 2000's daily pivot is at 2,643.08. Support levels are S1 2,632.85 and S2 2,614.06, with resistances at R1 2,661.87 and R2 2,672.10. A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 2,632.85 and 2,661.87, or the deployment of market-neutral optional strategies around the 2,643.08 pivot. Directional triggers are expected only on confirmed breakouts beyond 2,672.10 or below 2,614.06.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.