Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Market Overview

Today, Wednesday, January 14, 2026, global markets are presenting a mixed picture, characterized by ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows. This environment suggests a lack of strong directional conviction across major equity indices as investors await fresh catalysts.

US Equity Futures

US equity index futures are indicating a modestly positive pre-market bias this morning. Both the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) futures show a slight uptick of approximately +0.03%. Similarly, German DAX (GER30) futures are reflecting this marginal upward momentum. Traders are advised to exercise caution and monitor for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent high and low levels, as market activity remains selective.

Pre-Market Tone

The pre-market tone is largely neutral, consistent with the broader mixed sentiment. Despite the slight positive tilt in US futures, the market is currently lacking a definitive catalyst to ignite strong directional moves. Instead, activity appears concentrated in specific sectors and individual names, pointing to continued rotational dynamics rather than broad-based buying or selling pressure. Market participants are keenly awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts to shape the day's trading narrative.

FX & Commodities Snapshot

In the foreign exchange market, EURUSD continues to exhibit a neutral bias. Its movements remain primarily driven by the differential in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside incoming inflation and labor market data. Commodities markets also reflect a neutral stance. Gold is trading without a strong directional bias, and Crude Oil (WTI) prices are similarly flat. Flows in both commodities are currently a complex interplay of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility & Tactical Focus

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently situated at intermediate levels, indicating that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate signal of systemic stress. Today's tactical focus remains firmly on the emergence of new macro catalysts. In the absence of significant data releases or unexpected geopolitical headlines, market participants are expected to engage in tactical trading strategies around established support and resistance levels. Particular attention should be paid to any sudden news headlines that could abruptly alter market sentiment and direction.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update

Good morning, investors. As we approach the middle of the week, global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone with no strong directional impetus. The focus remains on regional developments and upcoming economic data releases.

Asia

Asian markets are showing limited directionality this morning, with subdued movements as investors digest local news and economic data from China and Japan. There is no strong conviction, suggesting a wait-and-see approach as participants seek fresh catalysts. Indices like the Nikkei and Hang Seng are likely to reflect this sentiment of consolidation.

Europe

European futures are largely flat, indicating a neutral start to the trading day. The broader picture for European equities, including key indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx, remains poised as investors await significant macroeconomic or political developments to provide a clearer direction. This period of consolidation could persist until new catalysts emerge.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar, while of moderate overall significance, contains several publications that could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The early hours will see the release of confidence indicators and production data from the Eurozone, along with other local updates. These figures will offer insights into the region's economic health and may prompt movements in the euro and European equities.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with the release of key data related to inflation, employment, or economic activity. These reports are particularly crucial for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices, potentially introducing volatility.
• Evening: Later in the day, any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored. Such communications can lead to spikes in volatility as markets react to potential shifts in monetary policy outlooks.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets Technical Levels - January 14, 2026

Welcome to your Wednesday 'Morning Markets' briefing. Today, we delve into the key technical levels for major commodities, currencies, and indices, based on yesterday's closing data, January 13, 2026. These levels provide crucial insights into potential support and resistance points for intraday trading.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,645.10, having traded within a range of 4,594.30 – 4,647.60. The session was moderately bullish, with XAUUSD closing in the upper portion of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 4,629.00
• Support 1 (S1): 4,610.40
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,663.70
• Support 2 (S2): 4,575.70
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,682.30

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude concluded yesterday at 60.76, ranging from 60.62 – 61.20. The session exhibited a moderately bearish sentiment, with crude closing towards the lower end of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 60.86
• Support 1 (S1): 60.52
• Resistance 1 (R1): 61.10
• Support 2 (S2): 60.28
• Resistance 2 (R2): 61.44

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1652, with an intraday range of 1.1640 – 1.1655. Yesterday saw a largely sideways session for the currency pair, finishing in the upper part of its daily trading range.

• Pivot (P): 1.1649
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1643
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1658
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1634
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1664

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 25,741.95, after a daily range between 25,642.11 – 25,873.18. The index experienced a largely lateral session, concluding near the midpoint of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 25,752.41
• Support 1 (S1): 25,631.65
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,862.72
• Support 2 (S2): 25,521.34
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,983.48

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6,963.74, with a trading range of 6,938.77 – 6,985.83. The session was predominantly sideways, with the index settling in the middle of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 6,962.78
• Support 1 (S1): 6,939.73
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,986.79
• Support 2 (S2): 6,915.72
• Resistance 2 (R2): 7,009.84

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

Germany's DAX closed at 25,420.66, having moved between 25,338.30 – 25,507.79. The index demonstrated a largely lateral trading pattern, finishing centrally within its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 25,422.25
• Support 1 (S1): 25,336.71
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,506.20
• Support 2 (S2): 25,252.76
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,591.74

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded yesterday at 45,525.00, with its range spanning 45,480.00 – 45,782.00. The Italian index experienced a relatively flat session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 45,595.67
• Support 1 (S1): 45,409.33
• Resistance 1 (R1): 45,711.33
• Support 2 (S2): 45,293.67
• Resistance 2 (R2): 45,897.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,633.11, trading between 2,627.40 – 2,647.04. The small-cap index also saw a generally sideways session, ending towards the lower end of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 2,635.85
• Support 1 (S1): 2,624.66
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,644.30
• Support 2 (S2): 2,616.21
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,655.49

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Update

The market's pulse remains measured as we observe a mixed bag of volatility signals and a steady, yet responsive, bond market. The US Dollar, after some recent fluctuations, shows signs of stabilization.

Volatility Landscape

Equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500) and VXN (Nasdaq 100), is currently hovering around 16.0% and 20.0% respectively. These levels are in line with recent averages, suggesting no evident excess of fear or complacency among investors in the broad equity markets. Cross-asset volatility, however, presents a slightly more nuanced picture. Gold's implied volatility (GVZ) is at approximately 23.8%, aligning with its recent mean. In contrast, Oil's implied volatility (OVX) stands at around 40.4%, which is moderately above its 20-day average, indicating that the market is paying for some protection in energy without exhibiting outright panic.

A notable observation comes from the comparison of realized versus implied volatility for the S&P 500. While the 10-day realized volatility is around 7.3%, the VIX (implied volatility) is significantly higher at approximately 16.0%. This substantial premium suggests that the market is currently pricing in a high risk premium for future S&P 500 movements, potentially anticipating increased uncertainty or larger price swings ahead.

USD Performance

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is presently around 99.1790. While it has strengthened by 0.88% over the past month, it is down 9.09% over the last 12 months. The DXY eased to the 99 level recently, following encouraging inflation data, leading investors to increase bets on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the dollar index rose to approximately 99.2 on Wednesday, nearing its highest level since early December, as inflation data appeared to have little impact on the near-term outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Some recent analysis indicates the DXY has also experienced a three-session winning streak, driven by expectations surrounding US employment data.

Bond Market Overview

In the bond market, US Treasury yields reflect a relatively stable, yet watchful, environment. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is approximately 4.18%. It eased slightly to 4.18% on January 14, 2026, a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. The 10-year yield held steady around 4.18% on Tuesday as market participants awaited the latest consumer inflation report, which could influence Federal Reserve policy. Over the past month, the yield has remained largely flat, and it is 0.48 percentage points lower than a year ago. Looking ahead, Trading Economics models anticipate the 10-year yield to trade around 4.12% by the end of this quarter.

Similarly, the US 2-year Treasury yield is currently around 3.54%. It recorded a decline of 0.019 percentage points to 3.527% as of January 13, 2026. Despite this recent dip, the 2-year yield has seen an increase of 2.25% over the past week and 0.26% over the past month. Trading Economics forecasts the 2-year yield to trade at 3.48% by the end of this quarter.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Wednesday's Trading Playbook

Good morning, traders. As markets open this Wednesday, we observe a predominantly neutral bias across key assets, suggesting a day ripe for range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures around their respective daily pivots. Directional movements are anticipated only upon confirmed breakouts beyond specified trigger levels.

Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC): The daily pivot resides at 4,628.93. Key support levels are S1 at 4,610.27 and S2 at 4,575.63, while resistances are R1 at 4,663.57 and R2 at 4,682.23. The bias remains neutral. Traders may consider range-trading between 4,610.27 and 4,663.57, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot. Directional triggers are confirmed breakouts above 4,682.23 or below 4,575.63.
• WTI Crude (CL): The daily pivot is established at 60.87. Support levels are S1 at 60.54 and S2 at 60.29, with resistances at R1 61.12 and R2 61.45. A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 60.54 and 61.12, or market-neutral options near the 60.87 pivot. Confirmed breakouts beyond 61.45 or below 60.29 will signal directional plays.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E): With a daily pivot at 1.1649, EUR/USD presents a neutral bias. Supports are S1 at 1.1643 and S2 at 1.1634, and resistances are R1 at 1.1658 and R2 at 1.1664. Range-trading between 1.1643 and 1.1658, or market-neutral option structures around 1.1649, are favored. Directional moves require confirmed breakouts above 1.1664 or below 1.1634.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ): The daily pivot for the Nasdaq 100 is at 25,752.41. Support levels are S1 at 25,631.65 and S2 at 25,521.34, while resistances are R1 at 25,862.72 and R2 at 25,983.48. Given the neutral bias, range-trading between 25,631.65 and 25,862.72, or market-neutral options around the pivot, are suitable. Directional triggers are confirmed breakouts over 25,983.48 or under 25,521.34.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY): The S&P 500 holds a daily pivot at 6,962.78. Supports are at S1 6,939.73 and S2 6,915.72, with resistances at R1 6,986.79 and R2 7,009.84. A neutral bias indicates suitability for range-trading between 6,939.73 and 6,986.79, or market-neutral options around 6,962.78. Look for directional triggers on confirmed breakouts above 7,009.84 or below 6,915.72.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX): The DAX's daily pivot is located at 25,422.25. Supports are S1 at 25,336.71 and S2 at 25,252.76, while resistances are R1 at 25,506.20 and R2 at 25,591.74. With a neutral bias, range-trading between 25,336.71 and 25,506.20, or market-neutral optional structures around 25,422.25, are recommended. Confirmed breakouts beyond 25,591.74 or below 25,252.76 will act as directional triggers.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO): The FTSE MIB establishes its daily pivot at 45,595.67. Key supports are S1 at 45,409.33 and S2 at 45,293.67, with resistances at R1 45,711.33 and R2 45,897.67. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 45,409.33 and 45,711.33, or market-neutral options around the pivot. Directional triggers are confirmed breakouts above 45,897.67 or below 45,293.67.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM): The daily pivot for the Russell 2000 is 2,635.85. Supports are S1 at 2,624.66 and S2 at 2,616.21, and resistances are R1 at 2,644.30 and R2 at 2,655.49. The neutral bias suggests range-trading between 2,624.66 and 2,644.30, or market-neutral options around the pivot. Confirmed breakouts beyond 2,655.49 or below 2,616.21 are the directional triggers to watch.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative instruments and leverage involves a high level of risk.