Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 11, 2026

As the weekend draws to a close on Sunday, January 11, 2026, global financial markets reflect a mixed sentiment. Investors are navigating a landscape characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across equity indices, with selective sector rotations and capital flows dominating activity. The overarching theme remains one of anticipation for fresh macro catalysts.

US Index Futures and Pre-Market Tone

While US equity futures remain closed for Sunday trading, the sentiment heading into the new week suggests a slight positive bias for key indices. Both the US500 and NAS100 closed the prior week with an average bias of +0.07. Traders will be keenly watching for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows when markets reopen, indicating a period of tactical positioning. The general pre-market tone, though quiescent due to the weekend, is one of cautious optimism tempered by underlying uncertainties.

Top Movers and Tactical Focus

In the absence of live pre-market activity on a Sunday, the focus shifts to the drivers expected to shape top movers in the coming week. The EURUSD pair, for instance, exhibits a neutral bias, largely driven by the differential in policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data. Commodities also reflect this cautious stance, with gold and WTI crude oil maintaining neutral biases. Flows in these markets are influenced by broader macroeconomic factors as well as specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects. Notably, the Volatility Index (VIX) remains at elevated levels compared to recent lows, suggesting that the market is currently paying for protection, though without exhibiting signs of extreme panic.

The tactical focus for the week ahead remains centered on key support and resistance levels. Market participants are poised for new macro catalysts, indicating that sudden headlines or economic data releases could trigger significant movements. This environment necessitates a highly tactical approach, with a readiness to react to unforeseen developments.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Outlook: Navigating a Week of Anticipation (January 12, 2026)

As global markets kick off the week of January 12, 2026, a pervasive sense of caution defines the sentiment, with investors closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data and central bank communications. After a period of significant movements, markets appear to be consolidating, awaiting fresh catalysts to establish a clearer direction.

Asia: Local Focus Amidst Contained Movements

Asian markets are not exhibiting strong directional conviction, with trading activities remaining contained. The primary drivers for regional indices like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng are anticipated to be local news and key economic data from China and Japan. On Friday, January 9, Chinese inflation data showed consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly three years in December, primarily driven by higher food costs, which helped boost Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 saw a nearly 1% jump on Friday, supported by a weaker yen and positive corporate earnings. Investors will be keenly watching further updates from these major economies to gauge the regional economic health.

Europe: Neutral Stance Ahead of Macro Catalysts

European futures indicate a largely neutral open for the week. The market in Europe currently presents a neutral outlook as investors await new macroeconomic or political catalysts to provide clear direction. Major indices such as the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 are expected to remain in a holding pattern. Disappointing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures and lower-than-expected inflation from Germany were noted in the prior week, contributing to a cautious sentiment.

United States: Consolidation After Recent Volatility

In the U.S., futures are mixed, lacking a clear direction as the market enters a consolidation phase following recent movements. U.S. labor market data and inflation trends continue to be central to investor focus, influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. The December non-farm payrolls report, released last Friday, was closely watched, with markets pricing in at least two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026.

Key Macroeconomic Calendar (CET)

The upcoming macro calendar is of moderate relevance but includes several publications that could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange.

• Morning: The early part of the week will feature confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside other local updates. These releases will offer insights into the health of the European economy and could sway sentiment on the Eurostoxx 50 and EURUSD.
• Afternoon: Later in the day, critical U.S. data, including updates on inflation, employment, or overall economic activity, are expected. These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD exchange rate and U.S. equity indices. Specifically, December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the US, due on Tuesday, will provide more insights into the inflation trajectory and potential policymaking.
• Evening: Investors should monitor any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (BCE). Such communications, along with statistics on financial conditions, could trigger spikes in market volatility. Central bank speeches are known to significantly impact financial markets by providing insights into future monetary policy.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels for January 11, 2026

As we head into the trading week, a review of key technical levels derived from yesterday's closing data provides crucial insights for various asset classes. The market saw a generally positive sentiment across major indices, with WTI Crude exhibiting a strong bullish close.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,500.90, having traded within a range of 4,461.80 – 4,527.00. The session was moderately bullish, with the price settling in the middle of its daily range. Key pivot levels are set at P 4,496.57, with immediate support at S1 4,466.13 and resistance at R1 4,531.33. Further levels to watch are S2 4,431.37 and R2 4,561.77.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude demonstrated a clearly bullish session, closing at 59.12 and ending in the upper part of its daily range of 57.61 – 59.77. The pivot point is 58.83. Support levels are identified at S1 57.90 and S2 56.67, while resistance lies at R1 60.06 and R2 60.99.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair experienced a largely sideways session, closing at 1.1658, near the high of its 1.1619 – 1.1660 range. The pivot point is established at 1.1646. Key support levels are S1 1.1631 and S2 1.1605, with resistance at R1 1.1672 and R2 1.1687.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 25,766.26, following a moderately bullish session that saw it settle in the upper part of its 25,455.97 – 25,811.45 range. The pivot point is 25,677.89. Supports are at S1 25,544.34 and S2 25,322.41, with resistances at R1 25,899.82 and R2 26,033.37.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed at 6,966.28, marking a moderately bullish session with a close in the upper portion of its 6,917.64 – 6,978.36 range. The pivot point is 6,954.09. Support levels are S1 6,929.83 and S2 6,893.37, while resistance levels are R1 6,990.55 and R2 7,014.81.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX finished yesterday at 25,261.64, reflecting a moderately bullish session with a close in the upper part of its 25,107.92 – 25,281.18 range. The pivot point stands at 25,216.91. Support is found at S1 25,152.65 and S2 25,043.65, with resistance at R1 25,325.91 and R2 25,390.17.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB closed at 45,719.00 after a largely sideways session, ending in the upper part of its 45,577.00 – 45,780.00 range. The pivot point is 45,692.00. Key support levels are S1 45,604.00 and S2 45,489.00, while resistance levels are R1 45,807.00 and R2 45,895.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,624.22, following a moderately bullish session with the close positioned in the middle of its 2,606.66 – 2,635.80 range. The pivot point is 2,622.23. Support levels are S1 2,608.65 and S2 2,593.09, with resistance at R1 2,637.79 and R2 2,651.37.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Market Overview

As we head into a new trading week, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics and the trajectory of bond yields and the US dollar. The past week saw a nuanced picture, with implied volatility remaining elevated relative to realized measures, while the US dollar showed signs of strengthening, and Treasury yields presented a mixed, yet largely stable, performance.

Volatility Dynamics

• Implied vs. Realized Volatility (S&P 500): The VIX, reflecting implied volatility for the S&P 500, stood at approximately 14.5%. This level is notably above the 10-day realized volatility of around 7.5%, indicating a significant risk premium being priced into the market. This suggests that despite recent market movements, options traders are anticipating greater future price swings than what has recently occurred.
• Cross-Asset Volatility: Across other key assets, implied volatility measures generally remained in line with their recent averages, suggesting no immediate signs of extreme fear or complacency.
  • The VXN (Nasdaq 100) was around 19.1%.
  • GVZ (Gold) registered approximately 23.4%.
  • OVX (Oil) was notably higher at about 36.8%.
  Data for EVZ (EURUSD) and VDAX (DAX) were unavailable.

USD Performance

The US Dollar Index (DXY) concluded the week on a stronger note, rising to 99.1375 on Friday, January 9, 2026, marking a 0.21% increase from the previous session. The dollar extended gains, climbing towards 99, reaching its highest level in nearly a month and posting a three-session winning streak with over 0.6% gains. This strengthening was attributed to robust safe-haven flows, global uncertainty, and optimism surrounding potential pro-growth policies from the new administration. However, the DXY pared some earlier gains after a mixed December jobs report, which showed nonfarm payrolls below expectations but a better-than-anticipated drop in the unemployment rate. Over the past month, the USD has appreciated by 0.36%, though it remains down by 9.59% over the last 12 months.

Bond Yields Outlook

US Treasury yields exhibited a mixed trend last week, largely reflecting a balanced outlook for growth and inflation.

• The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield finished Friday, January 9, 2026, at 4.18%. While some reports indicated it was around 4.17%, little changed from Thursday's close, the yield saw a marginal weekly decline of 0.017 percentage points. Month-to-date and year-to-date, the 10-year yield is up by 0.018 percentage points.
• The 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 3.54% on January 9, 2026. This represented a weekly increase of 0.063 percentage points, snapping a four-week streak of falling yields.

The overall stability in bond yields, despite some fluctuations, suggests that investors are assessing incoming economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations with a degree of caution.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As we commence trading for the week, a broadly neutral bias characterizes the technical landscape across key financial instruments. Traders are advised to anticipate potential range-bound activity, with defined support and resistance levels guiding intraday and multiday strategies. Confirmed breakouts beyond established outer bounds will be crucial for signaling any shift towards directional momentum.

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

  The daily pivot for Gold is established at 4,496.57. Key support levels are identified at S1 4,466.13 and S2 4,431.37. On the upside, resistances are found at R1 4,531.33 and R2 4,561.77.

  The bias remains neutral, favoring range-trading strategies between 4,466.13 and 4,531.33, or market-neutral option structures centered around the 4,496.57 pivot. Directional triggers would require confirmed breakouts above 4,561.77 or below 4,431.37.

• WTI Crude (CL)

  WTI Crude's daily pivot is marked at 58.83. Support levels are at S1 57.90 and S2 56.67, while resistance levels are at R1 60.06 and R2 60.99.

  A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 57.90 and 60.06, or employing market-neutral options around the 58.83 pivot. Significant directional moves are anticipated only on confirmed breaches above 60.99 or below 56.67.

• EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

  For EUR/USD, the daily pivot is at 1.1646. Supports are noted at S1 1.1631 and S2 1.1605. Resistances are at R1 1.1672 and R2 1.1687.

  The pair maintains a neutral bias. Preferred strategies include range-trading between 1.1631 and 1.1672, or market-neutral option positions around the 1.1646 pivot. Directional triggers would be confirmed breakouts above 1.1687 or below 1.1605.

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

  The Nasdaq 100 has a daily pivot at 25,677.89. Key supports are S1 25,544.34 and S2 25,322.41. Resistances are set at R1 25,899.82 and R2 26,033.37.

  With a neutral bias, range-trading between 25,544.34 and 25,899.82, or market-neutral option strategies around the 25,677.89 pivot, are recommended. Confirmed moves beyond 26,033.37 or below 25,322.41 would act as directional triggers.

• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

  The S&P 500's daily pivot is at 6,954.09. Supports are found at S1 6,929.83 and S2 6,893.37. Resistances are at R1 6,990.55 and R2 7,014.81.

  The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading within 6,929.83 and 6,990.55, or market-neutral options around the 6,954.09 pivot. Directional shifts are expected on confirmed breakouts above 7,014.81 or below 6,893.37.

• DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

  The DAX has a daily pivot point at 25,216.91. Support levels are S1 25,152.65 and S2 25,043.65. Resistance levels are R1 25,325.91 and R2 25,390.17.

  A neutral bias prevails, suggesting range-trading between 25,152.65 and 25,325.91, or utilizing market-neutral optional structures near the 25,216.91 pivot. Directional triggers are set at confirmed breakouts above 25,390.17 or below 25,043.65.

• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

  The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is at 45,692.00. Supports are at S1 45,604.00 and S2 45,489.00. Resistances are R1 45,807.00 and R2 45,895.00.

  With a neutral bias, range-trading between 45,604.00 and 45,807.00, or market-neutral option plays around the 45,692.00 pivot, are indicated. Directional triggers would be confirmed movements beyond 45,895.00 or below 45,489.00.

• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

  The Russell 2000 has its daily pivot at 2,622.23. Supports are positioned at S1 2,608.65 and S2 2,593.09. Resistances are at R1 2,637.79 and R2 2,651.37.

  A neutral bias suggests range-trading strategies between 2,608.65 and 2,637.79, or employing market-neutral options around the 2,622.23 pivot. Directional triggers are expected on confirmed breakouts above 2,651.37 or below 2,593.09.

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading in derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.