Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 10, 2026

Global financial markets open this Saturday morning presenting a mixed landscape, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across major equity indices. The environment is marked by ongoing sector rotations and highly selective capital flows, as investors keenly await fresh macro catalysts to shape market direction.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone

US equity index futures are indicating a largely flat to marginally positive bias as the weekend begins. Both the US500 and NAS100 futures are currently showing a modest positive bias of approximately +0.07. This suggests an indecisive sentiment, with traders paying close attention to potential breakout or fakeout movements around recent high and low levels.

The broader pre-market tone remains one of caution. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is holding at elevated levels compared to its recent lows, signalling that the market is valuing protection against potential downside risks. While this implies a cautious stance among participants, it does not yet suggest extreme panic. Instead, the elevated volatility reflects a market poised for reaction to forthcoming economic data and geopolitical developments, with a clear emphasis on the ongoing search for new macroeconomic drivers.

Sector Rotations & Tactical Outlook

In the absence of a dominant overarching market theme, the flow of capital remains highly selective, driven by dynamic sector rotations rather than a broad-based market push. While specific "top movers" are not broadly defined in this environment, individual stocks within rotating sectors are likely to see increased activity. The prevailing strategy emphasizes tactical trading around established support and resistance levels, with an imperative to monitor for sudden, market-moving headlines.

Elsewhere, the EURUSD currency pair maintains a neutral bias, with its trajectory primarily influenced by the evolving interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market reports. Commodities, including Gold and WTI crude oil, also exhibit a neutral bias. Their price action is a reflection of a delicate balance between broader macroeconomic trends and specific supply-demand news pertaining to global interest rates and growth prospects.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update - January 12, 2026

The weekend arrives with global markets reflecting a cautious and consolidative mood. Following a week of varied movements, investors appear to be taking stock, with futures across major regions indicating a neutral start to the upcoming trading week as they await fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets concluded the week without strong directional conviction. Movements remained contained, with investor attention largely focused on local news and forthcoming economic data from China and Japan. We anticipate the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index to continue reflecting these domestic influences as trading resumes on Monday.

Europe

European futures closed Friday's session showing minimal movement, suggesting a neutral outlook for the start of the next week. The broader European equity landscape, including benchmarks like the DAX and EuroStoxx 50, remains in a holding pattern, with investors keenly awaiting new macroeconomic and political developments to provide clearer direction.

The Week Ahead: Key Macro Calendar (CET)

The upcoming macro calendar, while of moderate overall significance, does feature several publications capable of influencing market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange pairs.

• Monday Morning: Expect various confidence indicators and production data from the Eurozone, alongside other local updates, which could offer insights into regional economic health.
• Monday Afternoon: Focus will shift to the United States, with key data releases on inflation, employment, or overall economic activity. These reports will be crucial for the EUR/USD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Monday Evening: Investors should monitor any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB), as well as statistics on financial conditions. These events have the potential to trigger volatility spikes across markets.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels Snapshot

As we head into the weekend, a review of yesterday's closing data provides crucial technical insights for major assets and indices. The general sentiment saw many instruments closing in the upper portion of their daily ranges, reflecting a predominantly bullish undertone, with some assets exhibiting clearly bullish momentum, while others showed more lateral movement.

Key Technical Levels for the Upcoming Session

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC): Gold concluded its session yesterday at 4,490.30, marking a moderately bullish close in the upper band of its 4,473.00 – 4,490.30 daily range. Looking ahead, the pivot point (P) stands at 4,484.53, with immediate support (S1) at 4,478.77 and resistance (R1) at 4,496.07. Further levels include S2 at 4,467.23 and R2 at 4,501.83.
• WTI Crude (CL): WTI Crude demonstrated a clearly bullish session, closing at 59.12, firmly positioned at the upper end of its 57.61 – 59.77 range. Key technical levels include a pivot point (P) at 58.83, with support (S1) at 57.90 and resistance (R1) at 60.06. Secondary levels are S2 at 56.67 and R2 at 60.99.
• EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1658, reflecting a largely lateral session yet managing to finish in the upper part of its 1.1619 – 1.1660 daily range. The pivotal point (P) is identified at 1.1646, with primary support (S1) at 1.1631 and resistance (R1) at 1.1672. Additional levels stand at S2 1.1605 and R2 1.1687.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX): The Nasdaq 100 experienced a moderately bullish day, closing at 25,766.26, near the top of its 25,455.97 – 25,811.45 range. For the next trading period, the pivot point (P) is 25,677.89, with S1 at 25,544.34 and R1 at 25,899.82. Further support is at S2 25,322.41 and resistance at R2 26,033.37.
• S&P 500 (SPX): Similarly, the S&P 500 posted a moderately bullish performance, closing at 6,966.28, well within the upper half of its 6,917.64 – 6,978.36 range. Technical levels to watch include a pivot point (P) at 6,954.09, support (S1) at 6,929.83, and resistance (R1) at 6,990.55. Secondary levels are S2 6,893.37 and R2 7,014.81.
• DAX (DE40 / GER40): The DAX closed moderately higher at 25,261.64, settling towards the top of its 25,107.92 – 25,281.18 daily range. Key pivot levels are P 25,216.91, S1 25,152.65, and R1 25,325.91. Further levels are S2 25,043.65 and R2 25,390.17.
• FTSE MIB: The FTSE MIB showed a substantially lateral session but managed to close at 45,719.00, in the upper part of its 45,577.00 – 45,780.00 range. Its pivot point (P) is at 45,692.00, with support (S1) at 45,604.00 and resistance (R1) at 45,807.00. Secondary levels are S2 45,489.00 and R2 45,895.00.
• Russell 2000 (RUT): Despite a moderately bullish session, the Russell 2000 closed at 2,624.22, notably in the central part of its 2,606.66 – 2,635.80 range. The pivot point (P) for the small-cap index is 2,622.23, with S1 at 2,608.65 and R1 at 2,637.79. Further levels are S2 2,593.09 and R2 2,651.37.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

Good morning, traders. As we kick off the weekend, let's take a look at the key market drivers and volatility landscape.

Volatility Insights: Implied vs. Realized

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently sits around 14.5%, appearing in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency in the broader market. The VXN (Nasdaq 100) at 19.1%, GVZ (Gold) at 23.4%, and OVX (Oil) at 36.8% also reflect a similar sentiment, trading in line with their recent averages, indicating a lack of extreme positioning across these major asset classes.
• However, a deeper dive into the S&P 500 reveals an interesting dynamic: the VIX's implied volatility (~14.5%) is currently *significantly above* the 10-day realized volatility (~7.5%). This notable divergence indicates a high risk premium embedded in options pricing, suggesting that while current market movements have been relatively subdued, participants are still bracing for potentially larger swings ahead.

USD and Bond Yields Update

The US Dollar has shown resilience recently. The DXY index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has seen a modest uptick this week, primarily driven by robust economic data releases from the United States. This strength suggests that the market continues to price in a relatively strong U.S. economic outlook compared to other major economies. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have also been a focal point. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading around 4.15%, reflecting investor sentiment about future interest rate movements and inflation expectations. This level represents a slight increase from earlier in the week, putting some upward pressure on borrowing costs and potentially influencing equity valuations.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets Tactical Playbook

Today's market analysis indicates a prevailing neutral bias across key assets, suggesting a focus on range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures around their respective daily pivots. Traders should monitor confirmed breakouts beyond specified resistance and support levels for directional triggers.

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC)
  • Daily Pivot: 4,484.53
  • Supports: S1 at 4,478.77, S2 at 4,467.23
  • Resistances: R1 at 4,496.07, R2 at 4,501.83
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 4,478.77 and 4,496.07, or market-neutral option strategies around the 4,484.53 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,501.83 or below 4,467.23.
• WTI Crude (CL)
  • Daily Pivot: 58.83
  • Supports: S1 at 57.90, S2 at 56.67
  • Resistances: R1 at 60.06, R2 at 60.99
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 57.90 and 60.06, or market-neutral option strategies around the 58.83 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 60.99 or below 56.67.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E)
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1646
  • Supports: S1 at 1.1631, S2 at 1.1605
  • Resistances: R1 at 1.1672, R2 at 1.1687
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 1.1631 and 1.1672, or market-neutral option strategies around the 1.1646 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1687 or below 1.1605.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)
  • Daily Pivot: 25,677.89
  • Supports: S1 at 25,544.34, S2 at 25,322.41
  • Resistances: R1 at 25,899.82, R2 at 26,033.37
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 25,544.34 and 25,899.82, or market-neutral option strategies around the 25,677.89 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 26,033.37 or below 25,322.41.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)
  • Daily Pivot: 6,954.09
  • Supports: S1 at 6,929.83, S2 at 6,893.37
  • Resistances: R1 at 6,990.55, R2 at 7,014.81
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 6,929.83 and 6,990.55, or market-neutral option strategies around the 6,954.09 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 7,014.81 or below 6,893.37.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX)
  • Daily Pivot: 25,216.91
  • Supports: S1 at 25,152.65, S2 at 25,043.65
  • Resistances: R1 at 25,325.91, R2 at 25,390.17
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 25,152.65 and 25,325.91, or market-neutral option strategies around the 25,216.91 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,390.17 or below 25,043.65.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)
  • Daily Pivot: 45,692.00
  • Supports: S1 at 45,604.00, S2 at 45,489.00
  • Resistances: R1 at 45,807.00, R2 at 45,895.00
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 45,604.00 and 45,807.00, or market-neutral option strategies around the 45,692.00 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 45,895.00 or below 45,489.00.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)
  • Daily Pivot: 2,622.23
  • Supports: S1 at 2,608.65, S2 at 2,593.09
  • Resistances: R1 at 2,637.79, R2 at 2,651.37
  • Bias: Neutral. Favor range-trading between 2,608.65 and 2,637.79, or market-neutral option strategies around the 2,622.23 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,651.37 or below 2,593.09.