Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 9, 2026

Markets are poised for a nuanced open this Friday, January 9, 2026, as investors navigate a mixed sentiment characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across global equity indices. The pre-market tone for US futures suggests a slightly positive lean, albeit with underlying caution and a focus on selective flows.

US Index Futures:

• US500 and NAS100 futures are indicating a marginal positive bias of approximately +0.03 in pre-market trading. This slight uptick suggests an attempt to maintain recent momentum, yet traders are keenly watching for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows. The technical landscape remains critical, with key support and resistance levels expected to dictate intraday movements.

Pre-Market Tone & Key Drivers:

The overall pre-market environment is one of anticipation. While there's no systemic stress, as indicated by VIX levels remaining intermediate, the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections. This cautious optimism stems from the ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows. Macroeconomic data, particularly related to inflation and labor markets, continues to be a significant driver, influencing not only FX pairs like EURUSD but also broader equity sentiment as participants await clarity on future central bank policies.

Top Movers & Tactical Focus:

In the absence of strong broad-market catalysts, attention will likely turn to individual companies and sectors benefiting from these selective flows and rotations. Expect certain segments of the market to outperform or underperform based on specific news or sentiment shifts. Today's trading is anticipated to be highly tactical, with an emphasis on identifying opportunities around established support and resistance levels. Furthermore, market participants should remain vigilant for any sudden headline-driven movements that could quickly alter the trading landscape.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update: January 9, 2026

Asia Asian markets are exhibiting limited directionality this morning, with modest movements as investors focus on local news and key data releases from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng are trading without a strong catalyst, suggesting a period of consolidation.

Europe European futures are relatively subdued, indicating a neutral start to the day. Major indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx are currently awaiting fresh macro or political catalysts to provide clear direction. The overall sentiment remains cautious as investors digest recent developments.

Macro Calendar (CET) Today's economic calendar presents a moderate level of relevance, yet certain publications could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: Focus will be on confidence indicators and production data from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates.
• Afternoon: Key US data releases, potentially including inflation, labor market figures, or activity reports, will be closely watched. These reports are crucial for the EURUSD pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Any speeches from Federal Reserve or European Central Bank members, along with statistics on financial conditions, should be monitored for potential volatility spikes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets - Friday, January 9, 2026

Below are key technical levels for major assets, based on yesterday's closing data (January 8, 2026), providing a framework for today's trading session.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,478.70
• Yesterday's Range: 4,461.80 – 4,493.70
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 4,478.07 · S1 4,462.43 · R1 4,494.33 · S2 4,446.17 · R2 4,509.97
• Context: Gold experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the central part of its daily trading range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 58.45
• Yesterday's Range: 57.98 – 58.53
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 58.32 · S1 58.11 · R1 58.66 · S2 57.77 · R2 58.87
• Context: WTI Crude also saw a moderately bullish day, with the closing price settling in the upper segment of its daily range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1647
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1644 – 1.1666
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 1.1652 · S1 1.1639 · R1 1.1660 · S2 1.1631 · R2 1.1674
• Context: The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways, ultimately closing in the lower portion of its daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,507.10
• Yesterday's Range: 25,400.16 – 25,622.31
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 25,509.86 · S1 25,397.40 · R1 25,619.55 · S2 25,287.71 · R2 25,732.01
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a moderately bearish session, with its close situated in the middle of the daily range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,921.46
• Yesterday's Range: 6,899.33 – 6,931.28
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 6,917.36 · S1 6,903.43 · R1 6,935.38 · S2 6,885.41 · R2 6,949.31
• Context: The S&P 500 traded broadly sideways, ending the session in the upper part of its daily range.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,127.46
• Yesterday's Range: 25,024.65 – 25,217.52
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 25,123.21 · S1 25,028.90 · R1 25,221.77 · S2 24,930.34 · R2 25,316.08
• Context: The DAX demonstrated a largely sideways trading pattern, closing centrally within its daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 45,672.00
• Yesterday's Range: 45,420.00 – 45,715.00
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 45,602.33 · S1 45,489.67 · R1 45,784.67 · S2 45,307.33 · R2 45,897.33
• Context: The FTSE MIB showed a predominantly sideways session, concluding in the upper segment of its daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,603.91
• Yesterday's Range: 2,566.66 – 2,608.58
• Classic Pivot Levels: P 2,593.05 · S1 2,577.52 · R1 2,619.44 · S2 2,551.13 · R2 2,634.97
• Context: The Russell 2000 experienced a moderately bullish session, with its closing price situated in the upper portion of its daily range.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Currents

This Friday, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics and key macro indicators, including the US Dollar and bond yields.

• Equity Volatility: SPX Implied Volatility Remains Elevated The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), tracking S&P 500 implied volatility, is currently around 15.4%. While this is in line with its recent average, a deeper look reveals a significant risk premium. The VIX's implied volatility of ~15.4% is considerably higher than the 10-day realized volatility of the S&P 500, which stands at approximately 7.0%. This divergence suggests that options markets are pricing in a much higher degree of potential future price swings compared to what has been observed recently, indicating an elevated risk premium.

• Cross-Asset Volatility Overview Across other major asset classes, implied volatility remains largely in line with recent averages, suggesting no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency.

  • The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) is around 20.1%.
  • Gold's implied volatility (GVZ) is approximately 24.1%.
  • Oil's implied volatility (OVX) is roughly 35.8%.

• USD and Bond Yields in Focus The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a significant rebound, climbing to a one-month high of 98.89 on January 8, 2026, and further rising to 98.9332 today, January 9, 2026. This resurgence follows a period of weakness in 2025, where the dollar shed nearly 9.4% of its value. The current rally is primarily driven by a recalibration of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, with markets now pricing in a 90% probability that the central bank will keep rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its upcoming January meeting, signaling an interruption to the easing cycle that dominated late 2025. Resilient domestic economic data, including an unexpected rise in the December ISM Services PMI and stubbornly anchored inflation at 2.7% in November, are fueling this renewed dollar strength.

In the bond market, US Treasury yields have edged higher. The 10-year Treasury note yield is holding steady around 4.18% as of January 9, 2026. This uptick in yields is providing the interest-rate differential necessary to support a stronger dollar and is also a reaction to signs of resilience in the labor market. While some market participants had anticipated further rate cuts, recent data, including a modest gain of 41,000 jobs in December 2025 according to the ADP report, has shifted expectations towards a more restrictive Fed stance for a prolonged period. Forecasts for the US Dollar in 2026 generally anticipate overall weakening with periods of recovery, with a downward bias if interest rates are cut, but rebounds are likely if inflation proves stubborn or global markets become defensive. The DXY is expected to trade between 97 and 101 for the first quarter of 2026.

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Currents

This Friday, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics and key macro indicators, including the US Dollar and bond yields.

• Equity Volatility: SPX Implied Volatility Remains Elevated The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), tracking S&P 500 implied volatility, is currently around 15.4%. While this is in line with its recent average, a deeper look reveals a significant risk premium. The VIX's implied volatility of ~15.4% is considerably higher than the 10-day realized volatility of the S&P 500, which stands at approximately 7.0%. This divergence suggests that options markets are pricing in a much higher degree of potential future price swings compared to what has been observed recently, indicating an elevated risk premium.

• Cross-Asset Volatility Overview Across other major asset classes, implied volatility remains largely in line with recent averages, suggesting no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency.

  • The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) is around 20.1%.
  • Gold's implied volatility (GVZ) is approximately 24.1%.
  • Oil's implied volatility (OVX) is roughly 35.8%.

• USD and Bond Yields in Focus The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a significant rebound, climbing to a one-month high of 98.89 on January 8, 2026, and further rising to 98.9332 today, January 9, 2026. This resurgence follows a period of weakness in 2025, where the dollar shed nearly 9.4% of its value. The current rally is primarily driven by a recalibration of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, with markets now pricing in a 90% probability that the central bank will keep rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its upcoming January meeting, signaling an interruption to the easing cycle that dominated late 2025. Resilient domestic economic data, including an unexpected rise in the December ISM Services PMI and stubbornly anchored inflation at 2.7% in November, are fueling this renewed dollar strength.

  In the bond market, US Treasury yields have edged higher. The 10-year Treasury note yield is holding steady around 4.18% as of January 9, 2026. This uptick in yields is providing the interest-rate differential necessary to support a stronger dollar and is also a reaction to signs of resilience in the labor market. While some market participants had anticipated further rate cuts, recent data, including a modest gain of 41,000 jobs in December 2025 according to the ADP report, has shifted expectations towards a more restrictive Fed stance for a prolonged period. Forecasts for the US Dollar in 2026 generally anticipate overall weakening with periods of recovery, with a downward bias if interest rates are cut, but rebounds are likely if inflation proves stubborn or global markets become defensive. The DXY is expected to trade between 97 and 101 for the first quarter of 2026.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Friday, January 9, 2026)

Welcome to our Morning Markets update. Today's tactical playbook focuses on key intraday and multi-day scenarios, defining critical support and resistance levels, market bias, and directional triggers across major assets.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,478.10
• Support Levels: S1 4,462.50, S2 4,446.20
• Resistance Levels: R1 4,494.40, R2 4,510.00
• Bias: Neutral. The current environment is best suited for range-trading strategies between 4,462.50 and 4,494.40, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,478.10 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 4,510.00 or below 4,446.20 are required for directional plays.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 58.31
• Support Levels: S1 58.10, S2 57.76
• Resistance Levels: R1 58.65, R2 58.86
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 58.10 and 58.65, or market-neutral optional structures around the 58.31 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Directional moves will likely materialize only on confirmed breakouts above 58.86 or below 57.76.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1652
• Support Levels: S1 1.1639, S2 1.1631
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1660, R2 1.1674
• Bias: Neutral. We anticipate a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 1.1639 and 1.1660, or market-neutral optional structures centered on the 1.1652 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1674 or below 1.1631 are necessary for clear directional signals.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,509.86
• Support Levels: S1 25,397.40, S2 25,287.71
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,619.55, R2 25,732.01
• Bias: Neutral. Conditions are conducive to range-trading strategies between 25,397.40 and 25,619.55, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,509.86 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Awaiting confirmed breakouts beyond 25,732.01 or below 25,287.71 for directional conviction.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,917.36
• Support Levels: S1 6,903.43, S2 6,885.41
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,935.38, R2 6,949.31
• Bias: Neutral. The outlook suggests range-trading strategies between 6,903.43 and 6,935.38, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,917.36 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,949.31 or below 6,885.41 will serve as directional triggers.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 25,123.21
• Support Levels: S1 25,028.90, S2 24,930.34
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,221.77, R2 25,316.08
• Bias: Neutral. We see a landscape suitable for range-trading strategies between 25,028.90 and 25,221.77, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,123.21 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Directional conviction requires confirmed breakouts beyond 25,316.08 or below 24,930.34.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 45,602.33
• Support Levels: S1 45,489.67, S2 45,307.33
• Resistance Levels: R1 45,784.67, R2 45,897.33
• Bias: Neutral. The current setup supports range-trading strategies between 45,489.67 and 45,784.67, or market-neutral optional structures around the 45,602.33 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Watch for confirmed breakouts above 45,897.33 or below 45,307.33 for directional plays.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,593.05
• Support Levels: S1 2,577.52, S2 2,551.13
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,619.44, R2 2,634.97
• Bias: Neutral. Conditions are favorable for range-trading strategies between 2,577.52 and 2,619.44, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,593.05 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 2,634.97 or below 2,551.13 are crucial for directional signals.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a public solicitation of savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivative instruments and leverage involves a high level of risk.