Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 8, 2026

Today, Thursday, January 8, 2026, the global market landscape presents a mixed picture, characterized by a lack of strong directional bias in equity indices, alongside ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows.

US Index Futures and Pre-Market Tone

US index futures are showing a slightly positive, yet cautious, pre-market tone. The US500 and NAS100 futures indicate a marginal positive bias of +0.03. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, as the market searches for direction amidst a lack of immediate strong catalysts. The overall sentiment suggests a market pricing in moderate risk of tactical corrections rather than systemic stress, with volatility (VIX) hovering at intermediate levels.

Broader Market Dynamics

• FX Markets: The EURUSD pair maintains a neutral bias, with its movements predominantly influenced by the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, coupled with upcoming inflation and labor market data.
• Commodities: Both gold and WTI crude oil exhibit a neutral bias. Their price actions reflect a blend of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news concerning interest rates and global growth prospects.

Tactical Focus and Top Movers

The market is currently awaiting fresh macro catalysts to dictate the next significant move. As such, today's trading is expected to be more tactical, focusing on established support and resistance levels. Participants should pay close attention to any sudden headline news that could trigger swift market reactions. While specific top movers are yet to emerge in this pre-catalyst environment, monitoring for companies reacting to micro-level news or sector-specific developments will be crucial once the trading session commences.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update - Thursday, January 8, 2026

Global markets are showing a muted start this Thursday, with investors carefully assessing economic data and awaiting fresh catalysts. While Asian markets exhibited limited directionality, European futures are flat, and US futures are mixed, suggesting a period of consolidation after recent movements.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying a lack of strong directional conviction this morning. Movements remain contained across the region, with a primary focus on local news and upcoming Chinese and Japanese economic data. The Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are expected to reflect this cautious sentiment, trading within relatively tight ranges as participants await clearer signals from regional developments and key economic releases.

Europe

European futures are showing little movement in early trading, indicating a broadly neutral outlook for the DAX and EuroStoxx indices. The market currently lacks strong impetus, with investors poised to react to new macro or political catalysts. Attention will likely remain on forthcoming economic indicators and any political developments that could shift sentiment in the Eurozone.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for today presents a moderate level of relevance, though several publications could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The European session will see the release of confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates. These could provide insights into the region's economic health and potentially trigger localized movements.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with the release of key data points, which depending on the day, could include inflation figures, employment statistics, or activity reports. These US data releases are particularly crucial and are expected to significantly impact the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, should be closely monitored. Such events have the potential to induce sudden spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels Overview - January 8, 2026

As of Thursday, January 8, 2026, market participants are analyzing yesterday's closing data to gauge key technical levels, supports, and resistances across major assets. Yesterday's trading sessions generally saw a sideways movement for most instruments, with varying closes within their daily ranges.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,442.10
• Yesterday's Range: 4,423.60 – 4,475.20
• Classic Pivots: P 4,446.97 · S1 4,418.73 · R1 4,470.33 · S2 4,395.37 · R2 4,498.57
• Context: Gold experienced a largely sideways session, concluding in the central part of its daily trading range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 56.19
• Yesterday's Range: 56.09 – 56.46
• Classic Pivots: P 56.25 · S1 56.03 · R1 56.40 · S2 55.88 · R2 56.62
• Context: WTI Crude also saw a sideways session, with the closing price settling in the lower portion of its daily range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1685
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1675 – 1.1686
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1682 · S1 1.1678 · R1 1.1689 · S2 1.1671 · R2 1.1693
• Context: The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways, closing near the upper end of its daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,653.90
• Yesterday's Range: 25,592.40 – 25,813.17
• Classic Pivots: P 25,686.49 · S1 25,559.81 · R1 25,780.58 · S2 25,465.72 · R2 25,907.26
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a sideways session, with its closing price in the lower part of its daily range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,920.93
• Yesterday's Range: 6,919.19 – 6,965.69
• Classic Pivots: P 6,935.27 · S1 6,904.85 · R1 6,951.35 · S2 6,888.77 · R2 6,981.77
• Context: The S&P 500's session was predominantly lateral, with a close in the lower section of its daily range.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,122.26
• Yesterday's Range: 24,982.62 – 25,122.46
• Classic Pivots: P 25,075.78 · S1 25,029.10 · R1 25,168.94 · S2 24,935.94 · R2 25,215.62
• Context: The DAX demonstrated a moderately bullish session, finishing strong at the upper end of its daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 45,559.00
• Yesterday's Range: 45,559.00 – 45,978.00
• Classic Pivots: P 45,698.67 · S1 45,419.33 · R1 45,838.33 · S2 45,279.67 · R2 46,117.67
• Context: The FTSE MIB traded largely sideways, with its closing price resting in the lower part of the daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,575.42
• Yesterday's Range: 2,563.40 – 2,585.62
• Classic Pivots: P 2,574.81 · S1 2,564.01 · R1 2,586.23 · S2 2,552.59 · R2 2,597.03
• Context: The Russell 2000's session was essentially lateral, closing centrally within its daily trading range.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Yield Movements

As Thursday unfolds, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics and key macroeconomic indicators, particularly the USD and bond yields, to gauge underlying sentiment and potential future movements.

Equity Volatility: Elevated Risk Premium Noted

The **VIX (S&P 500)** currently sits at approximately 15.4%. This level appears to be in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency in the broader market at first glance. Similarly, the **VXN (Nasdaq 100)** is trading around 20.0%, also consistent with its recent historical range.

However, a deeper dive into the relationship between realized and implied volatility reveals a significant observation for the S&P 500. While the 10-day realized volatility for the SPX is around 7.3%, the VIX, which reflects implied volatility, is markedly higher at approximately 15.4%. This considerable spread indicates that the implied volatility priced by the VIX is **significantly above** the 10-day realized volatility, suggesting an elevated risk premium in the market.

Cross-Asset Volatility: Steady Across the Board

Beyond equities, volatility across other major asset classes also remains largely in line with recent averages. The **GVZ (Gold Volatility Index)** is at roughly 24.1%, and the **OVX (Oil Volatility Index)** is around 33.0%. These figures do not suggest any abnormal spikes or dips, indicating a stable, albeit watchful, environment across commodities.

USD and Bond Yields in Focus

Today, attention will also be fixed on the performance of the US Dollar and sovereign bond yields, particularly as market participants digest the latest economic data and central bank commentary. Recent movements have seen the US Dollar Index (DXY) reflecting a nuanced sentiment. As of early Thursday, the DXY is hovering around 103.54, experiencing a slight dip after strengthening earlier in the week. This subtle pullback could be influenced by evolving expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

In the fixed income market, US Treasury yields remain a critical barometer. The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently observed at approximately 4.02%. This follows a period where yields have shown some upward pressure, as investors continue to assess inflation trends and the trajectory of interest rates. The interplay between current economic indicators and forward-looking monetary policy expectations will likely dictate further movements in both the USD and bond markets throughout the day.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

Today, Thursday, our tactical playbook highlights a predominantly neutral bias across key asset classes, suggesting a focus on range-bound strategies unless significant directional triggers are confirmed. Traders should closely monitor the specified support and resistance levels for potential breakout opportunities.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold maintains a neutral bias. The daily pivot is identified at 4,446.93. Key support levels are S1 at 4,418.67 and S2 at 4,395.33. Resistance levels are R1 at 4,470.27 and R2 at 4,498.53.

The current market context favors range-trading strategies between 4,418.67 and 4,470.27, or market-neutral optional structures centered around the 4,446.93 pivot. Directional triggers for confirmed breakouts are beyond 4,498.53 or below 4,395.33.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude exhibits a neutral bias. The daily pivot stands at 56.25. Support levels are S1 at 56.03 and S2 at 55.88. Resistance levels are R1 at 56.40 and R2 at 56.62.

The environment is conducive to range-trading between 56.03 and 56.40, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 56.25 pivot. Confirmed directional breakouts are anticipated above 56.62 or below 55.88.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

EUR/USD is also under a neutral bias. The daily pivot is positioned at 1.1682. Support levels are S1 at 1.1678 and S2 at 1.1671. Resistance levels are R1 at 1.1689 and R2 at 1.1693.

This pair is suitable for range-trading strategies within the 1.1678 to 1.1689 band, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1682 pivot. Directional movement will likely be triggered by confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1693 or below 1.1671.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 shows a neutral bias. Its daily pivot is at 25,686.49. Support levels are S1 at 25,559.81 and S2 at 25,465.72. Resistance levels are R1 at 25,780.58 and R2 at 25,907.26.

A range-trading approach between 25,559.81 and 25,780.58 is favored, alongside market-neutral optional structures around the 25,686.49 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers are expected on breakouts above 25,907.26 or below 25,465.72.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500 maintains a neutral bias. The daily pivot is located at 6,935.27. Key support levels are S1 at 6,904.85 and S2 at 6,888.77. Resistance levels are R1 at 6,951.35 and R2 at 6,981.77.

The current market structure supports range-trading between 6,904.85 and 6,951.35, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 6,935.27 pivot. Directional triggers are set for confirmed breakouts beyond 6,981.77 or below 6,888.77.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX exhibits a neutral bias. Its daily pivot is at 25,075.78. Support levels are S1 at 25,029.10 and S2 at 24,935.94. Resistance levels are R1 at 25,168.94 and R2 at 25,215.62.

The current setup is best suited for range-trading between 25,029.10 and 25,168.94, or market-neutral optional structures centered on the 25,075.78 pivot. Directional triggers for confirmed moves are beyond 25,215.62 or below 24,935.94.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB holds a neutral bias. The daily pivot is set at 45,698.67. Support levels are S1 at 45,419.33 and S2 at 45,279.67. Resistance levels are R1 at 45,838.33 and R2 at 46,117.67.

The context favors range-trading strategies within the 45,419.33 to 45,838.33 range, or market-neutral optional structures around the 45,698.67 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers are identified on breakouts above 46,117.67 or below 45,279.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 maintains a neutral bias. Its daily pivot is at 2,574.81. Support levels are S1 at 2,564.01 and S2 at 2,552.59. Resistance levels are R1 at 2,586.23 and R2 at 2,597.03.

The market environment is suited for range-trading between 2,564.01 and 2,586.23, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,574.81 pivot. Directional triggers for confirmed breakouts are beyond 2,597.03 or below 2,552.59.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high degree of risk.