Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Global markets are kicking off Wednesday, January 7, with a mixed sentiment, as investors navigate a landscape characterized by sector rotations and selective capital flows. There is no strong directional bias across major indices, with a cautious tone prevailing in pre-market trading.

US Index Futures and Pre-Market Tone:

• US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are showing a slight positive bias in early trading. However, this modest uptick comes with a strong emphasis on monitoring potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows. The market appears poised for tactical plays as participants await fresh catalysts.
• The overall pre-market tone reflects a cautious optimism, with traders keen on identifying early signs of momentum shifts but also ready to react to any sudden market headlines.

Broader Market Snapshot:

• FX: The EURUSD pair maintains a neutral bias. Its trajectory continues to be heavily influenced by the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data.
• Commodities: Both Gold and WTI crude oil are trading with a neutral bias. Their price movements are currently reflecting a blend of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.
• Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. This indicates that the market is willing to pay a premium for protection, suggesting underlying caution, but without showing signs of extreme panic.

Tactical Focus for the Day:

Today's trading is expected to be largely tactical, with market participants eagerly awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts. The absence of a strong fundamental driver places a premium on technical analysis, with operations focusing on key support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to remain vigilant for any sudden news or headlines that could trigger swift market reactions, particularly concerning economic data or geopolitical developments that could influence top movers throughout the session.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Awaiting Catalysts Amidst Subdued Trading

Global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone this Wednesday, with investors largely in a holding pattern as they await fresh macro and political catalysts. Futures across major regions suggest a lack of strong directional conviction to start the day.

Asia

Asian markets are trading without strong direction this morning, showing contained movements. The focus remains squarely on local news and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. Major indices like the Nikkei and Hang Seng are reflecting this lack of firm conviction, trading in a relatively narrow range as participants digest regional developments and await clearer signals for future trends.

Europe

European futures are largely unmoved, indicating a neutral framework for the session ahead. Investors appear to be patiently awaiting new macroeconomic data or political developments that could provide fresh impetus. Indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx are likely to reflect this "wait-and-see" approach, with significant movements potentially capped until new information emerges.

Macro Calendar (CET)

While the overall relevance of today's macro calendar is moderate, several publications could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets:

• Morning: The early hours will see the release of confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside other local updates. These data points will be closely watched for insights into the health of the eurozone economy.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with the release of key data on inflation, labor, or economic activity (depending on the specific day's schedule). These figures are particularly crucial for guiding the EUR/USD exchange rate and setting the tone for US indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, should be monitored. Such events have the potential to induce sudden spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (January 7, 2026)

As we begin Wednesday's trading session, market participants will be closely watching the following key technical levels, calculated from yesterday's closing data. These levels offer insights into potential support and resistance zones for intraday trading.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a largely sideways session yesterday, closing in the lower part of its daily range. Its close was 4,466.70.

• Yesterday's Range: 4,451.50 – 4,512.40
• Classic Pivot (P): 4,476.87
• Support Levels: S1 4,441.33, S2 4,415.97
• Resistance Levels: R1 4,502.23, R2 4,537.77

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude saw a moderately bearish session, closing in the central part of its daily range at 56.30.

• Yesterday's Range: 55.76 – 57.09
• Classic Pivot (P): 56.38
• Support Levels: S1 55.68, S2 55.05
• Resistance Levels: R1 57.01, R2 57.71

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair traded in a largely sideways fashion, closing in the lower part of its daily range at 1.1689.

• Yesterday's Range: 1.1686 – 1.1705
• Classic Pivot (P): 1.1694
• Support Levels: S1 1.1682, S2 1.1674
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1701, R2 1.1713

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed a moderately bullish session in the upper part of its daily range at 25,639.71.

• Yesterday's Range: 25,428.08 – 25,655.12
• Classic Pivot (P): 25,574.30
• Support Levels: S1 25,493.49, S2 25,347.26
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,720.53, R2 25,801.34

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 also had a moderately bullish session, finishing in the upper part of its daily range at 6,944.82.

• Yesterday's Range: 6,904.02 – 6,948.69
• Classic Pivot (P): 6,932.51
• Support Levels: S1 6,916.33, S2 6,887.84
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,961.00, R2 6,977.18

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX experienced a largely sideways session, with its closing price of 24,892.20 falling in the central part of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Range: 24,836.33 – 24,969.17
• Classic Pivot (P): 24,899.23
• Support Levels: S1 24,829.30, S2 24,766.39
• Resistance Levels: R1 24,962.14, R2 25,032.07

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded a largely sideways session, closing in the lower part of its daily range at 45,753.00.

• Yesterday's Range: 45,753.00 – 46,194.00
• Classic Pivot (P): 45,900.00
• Support Levels: S1 45,606.00, S2 45,459.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 46,047.00, R2 46,341.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 saw a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of its daily range at 2,582.90.

• Yesterday's Range: 2,541.63 – 2,582.99
• Classic Pivot (P): 2,569.17
• Support Levels: S1 2,555.36, S2 2,527.81
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,596.72, R2 2,610.53

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

Good morning. Today, we delve into the current state of market volatility and key macro drivers impacting the financial landscape.

Volatility Overview

Market volatility, as measured by various indices, continues to be a focal point for investors.

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands around 14.8%. This level is broadly in line with its recent average, suggesting no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency in the broader market. However, a closer look at the relationship between implied and realized volatility for the S&P 500 reveals an interesting dynamic. The VIX, representing implied volatility, is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility of approximately 7.4%, indicating a substantial risk premium embedded in options pricing. This suggests market participants are demanding a higher premium for future uncertainty compared to recent historical price swings.
• Cross-asset volatility across other major indices and commodities also appears to be maintaining recent trends. The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is around 19.5%, while GVZ (Gold) is at approximately 24.8%, and OVX (Oil) is near 30.1%. All these figures are in line with their recent averages, suggesting a lack of pronounced anxiety or undue comfort in these specific asset classes.

USD Performance and Bond Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 98.50, having eased slightly today after posting gains in the previous session. Over the past month, the dollar has weakened by 0.46%, and is down by 9.59% over the last 12 months. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including the ISM Services PMI and JOLTs job openings, which will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy. Despite recent remarks from a Fed Governor suggesting aggressive rate cuts might be needed this year, markets are pricing in a high probability (over 80%) that the Fed will keep policy unchanged at its upcoming meeting.

The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently around 1.1695, showing a slight increase of 0.03% in the last 24 hours. The pair has seen a 0.43% decrease over the past week but a 13.55% increase over the last year. Technical analysis suggests a potential for a bearish bias for EUR/USD, with the pair struggling to hold the 1.1700 mark.

Turning to bond yields, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is holding steady at 4.17% as of today, January 7, 2026. This yield is little changed and hovers just below the four-month high of 4.19% reached last Friday. Over the past month, the yield has remained flat, and it is 0.54 points lower than a year ago. The US 10-year Treasury yield is often seen as a benchmark for borrowing costs and a key indicator of economic sentiment.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Wednesday's Tactical Playbook

Good morning, traders. As we kick off Wednesday's session, market participants are presented with a generally neutral bias across major assets, favoring range-trading strategies. Our tactical playbook highlights key intraday and multi-day levels, outlining scenarios, risk parameters, and critical directional triggers.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,476.87
• Supports: S1 at 4,441.33, S2 at 4,415.97
• Resistances: R1 at 4,502.23, R2 at 4,537.77
• Bias: Neutral. The current context is well-suited for range-trading strategies between 4,441.33 and 4,502.23, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,476.87 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,537.77 or below 4,415.97 would signal a new directional bias.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 56.39
• Supports: S1 at 55.68, S2 at 55.06
• Resistances: R1 at 57.01, R2 at 57.72
• Bias: Neutral. We anticipate range-trading activity between 55.68 and 57.01, or the deployment of market-neutral option strategies centered on the 56.39 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed move beyond 57.72 or below 55.06 is required for a directional shift.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1694
• Supports: S1 at 1.1682, S2 at 1.1674
• Resistances: R1 at 1.1701, R2 at 1.1713
• Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading between 1.1682 and 1.1701, or market-neutral option structures around the 1.1694 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1713 or below 1.1674 are the key directional triggers.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,574.30
• Supports: S1 at 25,493.49, S2 at 25,347.26
• Resistances: R1 at 25,720.53, R2 at 25,801.34
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 25,493.49 and 25,720.53 is preferred, or consider market-neutral option strategies around the 25,574.30 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Look for confirmed breakouts beyond 25,801.34 or below 25,347.26 to establish a directional trend.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,932.51
• Supports: S1 at 6,916.33, S2 at 6,887.84
• Resistances: R1 at 6,961.00, R2 at 6,977.18
• Bias: Neutral. The environment favors range-trading between 6,916.33 and 6,961.00, or market-neutral option strategies around the 6,932.51 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed penetration above 6,977.18 or below 6,887.84 is necessary for a directional move.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,899.23
• Supports: S1 at 24,829.30, S2 at 24,766.39
• Resistances: R1 at 24,962.14, R2 at 25,032.07
• Bias: Neutral. Strategies focusing on range-trading between 24,829.30 and 24,962.14, or market-neutral options around the 24,899.23 pivot, are appropriate.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 25,032.07 or below 24,766.39 would indicate a new directional bias.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 45,900.00
• Supports: S1 at 45,606.00, S2 at 45,459.00
• Resistances: R1 at 46,047.00, R2 at 46,341.00
• Bias: Neutral. We recommend range-trading between 45,606.00 and 46,047.00, or employing market-neutral options around the 45,900.00 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Significant moves are anticipated only on confirmed breakouts above 46,341.00 or below 45,459.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,569.17
• Supports: S1 at 2,555.36, S2 at 2,527.81
• Resistances: R1 at 2,596.72, R2 at 2,610.53
• Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading strategies between 2,555.36 and 2,596.72, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,569.17 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond 2,610.53 or below 2,527.81 would trigger a new directional bias.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments carries a high level of risk.