Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Cautious Optimism Amidst Sectoral Shifts

The trading day on Tuesday, January 6, 2026, commences with a nuanced market tone. Equity indices are largely without a strong directional bias, reflecting ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows. This mixed sentiment is setting the stage for a day where individual catalysts and technical levels may play a significant role.

US Index Futures Indicate Modest Pre-Market Strength

US index futures are showing a marginally positive bias in pre-market trading, with both the US500 and NAS100 futures registering an approximately +0.07% uptick. Market participants are advised to pay close attention to recent highs and lows, as the current environment suggests a heightened probability of either breakout or fakeout movements. The absence of strong overarching conviction implies that early price action might be primarily dictated by these critical technical levels.

Volatility Elevated, Tactical Play in Focus

Volatility, as indicated by the VIX, remains elevated relative to its recent lows. This suggests that the market is incorporating a degree of protection into pricing, though it's important to note that signals of extreme panic are not evident. This backdrop emphasizes a more tactical approach to trading, with a strong focus on established support and resistance levels. The market is currently in a holding pattern, awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts. Consequently, any sudden headlines or data releases could trigger pronounced intraday movements.

Sectoral Dynamics Drive Selective Opportunities

While broader index movements remain constrained, underlying market dynamics reveal continued selective flows and distinct sectoral rotations. This suggests that "top movers" will likely emerge from specific sectors or individual equities that are responding to particular news or thematic shifts, rather than a broad-based market rally. Investors and traders are encouraged to maintain agility and focus on idiosyncratic performance within these rotational themes.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Asia Markets

Asian markets are showing a lack of strong directional conviction this morning, with subdued movements across the region. Investors are primarily focused on local news developments and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. Major indices such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng are reflecting this cautious sentiment, awaiting fresh catalysts to establish a clearer trend.

European Markets

European futures are trading with limited momentum, indicating a neutral backdrop as the session begins. The broader European market, including benchmark indices like the DAX and EuroStoxx, appears to be in a holding pattern. Investors are currently awaiting new macroeconomic or political catalysts that could provide a clearer direction for regional equities.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar is of moderate significance, yet it contains several publications that could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange (FX) rates:

• Morning: The focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates that could offer insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts to the United States, with the release of key data pertaining to inflation, employment, or overall economic activity (specific to the day). These figures will be crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Market participants should monitor any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (BCE), as well as statistics on financial conditions, which could potentially trigger spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - January 6, 2026

Here are the key technical levels for major financial instruments, calculated based on yesterday's closing data (January 5, 2026), updated for today, Tuesday, January 6, 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,473.60
• Yesterday's Range: 4,437.90 – 4,485.20
• Classic Pivots: P 4,465.57 · S1 4,445.93 · R1 4,493.23 · S2 4,418.27 · R2 4,512.87
• Context: Gold experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 58.00
• Yesterday's Range: 57.89 – 58.38
• Classic Pivots: P 58.09 · S1 57.80 · R1 58.29 · S2 57.60 · R2 58.58
• Context: WTI Crude saw a moderately bearish session, concluding in the lower part of its daily range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1740
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1714 – 1.1748
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1734 · S1 1.1720 · R1 1.1754 · S2 1.1699 · R2 1.1768
• Context: The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways, with its closing price in the upper portion of its daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,401.32
• Yesterday's Range: 25,354.66 – 25,520.52
• Classic Pivots: P 25,425.50 · S1 25,330.48 · R1 25,496.34 · S2 25,259.64 · R2 25,591.36
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 had a moderately bullish session, despite closing in the lower part of its daily range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,902.05
• Yesterday's Range: 6,891.56 – 6,920.38
• Classic Pivots: P 6,904.66 · S1 6,888.95 · R1 6,917.77 · S2 6,875.84 · R2 6,933.48
• Context: The S&P 500 closed in the central part of its daily range following a moderately bullish session.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,868.69
• Yesterday's Range: 24,639.68 – 24,872.92
• Classic Pivots: P 24,793.76 · S1 24,714.61 · R1 24,947.85 · S2 24,560.52 · R2 25,027.00
• Context: The DAX experienced a moderately bullish session, ending near the upper end of its daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 45,847.00
• Yesterday's Range: 45,547.00 – 45,850.00
• Classic Pivots: P 45,748.00 · S1 45,646.00 · R1 45,949.00 · S2 45,445.00 · R2 46,051.00
• Context: The FTSE MIB showed a moderately bullish tendency, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,547.92
• Yesterday's Range: 2,516.81 – 2,556.24
• Classic Pivots: P 2,540.32 · S1 2,524.41 · R1 2,563.84 · S2 2,500.89 · R2 2,579.75
• Context: The Russell 2000 had a clearly bullish session, closing prominently in the upper part of its daily range.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Financial markets are navigating a mix of cross-asset volatility dynamics, with a particular focus on the US dollar's recent movements and shifts in bond yields as investors weigh economic data and geopolitical developments.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Cross-Asset Landscape

In the equity markets, implied volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500), stands at approximately 14.9%. This figure is consistent with its recent average, suggesting no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency among investors. However, a closer look reveals that the VIX's implied volatility is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility for the S&P 500, which is around 8.0%. This notable spread indicates a currently elevated risk premium priced into the market.

Across other asset classes, implied volatility measures are largely in line with their recent averages. The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at approximately 20.0%, while the GVZ (Gold) and OVX (Oil) register around 24.2% and 29.4% respectively. These levels suggest a balanced outlook for expected price swings in tech, precious metals, and energy sectors for now. Data for EVZ (EURUSD) and VDAX (DAX) volatility was not available.

USD Performance

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced some volatility, currently trading in the range of 98.22 to 98.50. It registered an increase of about 0.23% to 0.48% over the past 24 hours, climbing to multi-week highs on Monday before paring some of those gains. Recent movements have been influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Venezuela, and US economic data, including a weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI. Despite the recent uptick, the DXY has shown a weakening trend over the longer term, down approximately 0.88% over the past month and about 9.5% to 9.8% over the last 12 months.

Bond Yields

US Treasury yields are exhibiting varied trends. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently around 4.17% to 4.183% as of Tuesday, January 6, 2026. This represents a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous session. Over the past week, the 10-year yield has risen by 1.04%, and by 1.78% over the past month. However, it remains down by about 9.32% to 9.62% compared to a year ago.

Conversely, the 2-year US Treasury yield stands at approximately 3.455%. This yield has seen a decrease of -0.29% over the past week and a more significant decline of -18.38% over the last year, reflecting ongoing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: January 6, 2026

Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

Here’s a look at today's key levels and tactical approaches for major instruments, highlighting scenarios, risk levels, and market triggers.

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC)
  • Daily Pivot: 4,465.50
  • Support Levels: S1 at 4,445.80, S2 at 4,418.20
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 4,493.10, R2 at 4,512.80
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 4,445.80 and 4,493.10, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,465.50 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,512.80 or below 4,418.20.
• WTI Crude (CL)
  • Daily Pivot: 58.09
  • Support Levels: S1 at 57.80, S2 at 57.60
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 58.29, R2 at 58.58
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 57.80 and 58.29, or market-neutral optional structures around the 58.09 pivot are most suitable.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 58.58 or below 57.60.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E)
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1734
  • Support Levels: S1 at 1.1720, S2 at 1.1699
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1754, R2 at 1.1768
  • Bias: Neutral. The context supports range-trading between 1.1720 and 1.1754, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 1.1734 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1768 or below 1.1699.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)
  • Daily Pivot: 25,425.50
  • Support Levels: S1 at 25,330.48, S2 at 25,259.64
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,496.34, R2 at 25,591.36
  • Bias: Neutral. Strategies focusing on range-trading between 25,330.48 and 25,496.34, or market-neutral options around the 25,425.50 pivot are advised.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,591.36 or below 25,259.64.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)
  • Daily Pivot: 6,904.66
  • Support Levels: S1 at 6,888.95, S2 at 6,875.84
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,917.77, R2 at 6,933.48
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 6,888.95 and 6,917.77, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,904.66 pivot are favored.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,933.48 or below 6,875.84.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX)
  • Daily Pivot: 24,793.76
  • Support Levels: S1 at 24,714.61, S2 at 24,560.52
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,947.85, R2 at 25,027.00
  • Bias: Neutral. The current environment is suited for range-trading between 24,714.61 and 24,947.85, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,793.76 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,027.00 or below 24,560.52.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)
  • Daily Pivot: 45,748.00
  • Support Levels: S1 at 45,646.00, S2 at 45,445.00
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 45,949.00, R2 at 46,051.00
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 45,646.00 and 45,949.00, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 45,748.00 pivot are recommended.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 46,051.00 or below 45,445.00.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)
  • Daily Pivot: 2,540.32
  • Support Levels: S1 at 2,524.41, S2 at 2,500.89
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,563.84, R2 at 2,579.75
  • Bias: Neutral. The context is more amenable to range-trading between 2,524.41 and 2,563.84, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,540.32 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,579.75 or below 2,500.89.