Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Awaiting Catalysts Amidst Mixed Sentiment

Good morning and welcome to our daily market update. As of Monday, January 5, 2026, the pre-market tone is characterized by a mixed sentiment across global equity indices. We are observing a lack of strong directional conviction, with market activity largely driven by sectoral rotations and selective capital flows.

US Index Futures:

US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are showing a slight positive bias, currently indicating a modest average gain of approximately +0.07% in early trading. Traders are advised to closely monitor for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as these levels could dictate short-term directional moves. Given the current environment, a tactical approach focused on these key price levels is warranted.

Volatility Insights:

Market volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains elevated compared to its recent lows. This suggests that while investors are actively paying for downside protection, there are no immediate signs of extreme panic or a broad-based flight to safety. The heightened volatility underscores a cautious market, anticipating potential shifts but not yet capitulating to fear.

Tactical Outlook for the Day:

Today's trading is expected to be largely tactical, with market participants awaiting fresh macro catalysts to provide clearer direction. In the absence of significant data releases or events, the focus will remain on technical support and resistance levels. Furthermore, traders should maintain vigilance for any sudden headline news that could trigger swift, localized reactions across asset classes. Operations are likely to be more agile, capitalizing on intraday movements rather than broad trend following.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update: January 5, 2026

Global markets are exhibiting a largely non-committal stance this Monday morning, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts to drive directional moves across major indices.

Asia

Asian markets are without strong directional conviction, characterized by contained movements as the focus remains on local news and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. Major indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are currently reflecting this lack of strong impetus, consolidating recent price action.

Europe

European futures are showing limited movement, suggesting a neutral opening for indices like the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50. The broader European market picture remains balanced for now, with investors largely in a holding pattern, awaiting significant new macroeconomic or political developments to provide clearer direction.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for today, while of moderate overall relevance, features several publications that could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: Attention will be on confidence and production indicators across the Eurozone, alongside various local economic updates. These releases may offer insights into the region's economic health and potentially trigger localized market reactions.
• Afternoon: Key data from the United States will be released, potentially covering inflation, labor market figures, or activity indicators, depending on the specific day. These US publications are expected to be particularly influential for the EURUSD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Investors should monitor for any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (BCE). Additionally, statistics pertaining to financial conditions will be crucial to watch for potential spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Outlook (January 5, 2026)

Today's market open follows a mixed session yesterday, January 4, 2026. Our analysis focuses on key technical levels, including pivot points, and immediate support and resistance thresholds, derived from yesterday's closing data. Investors should monitor these levels for potential intraday trading opportunities and shifts in momentum.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold concluded yesterday's trading at 4,431.30, marking a clearly bullish session with a close in the upper part of its daily range. Key technical levels to watch:

• Pivot (P): 4,407.33
• Support 1 (S1): 4,378.57
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,460.07

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude closed at 56.82 following a moderately bearish session, settling in the lower portion of its daily range. Important levels for today:

• Pivot (P): 57.04
• Support 1 (S1): 56.34
• Resistance 1 (R1): 57.51

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair finished yesterday at 1.1690, experiencing a moderately bearish session with the close near the lower end of its range. Traders should observe these levels:

• Pivot (P): 1.1698
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1668
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1720

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 25,206.17 after a largely sideways session, with the index settling in the lower part of its daily range. Key technical points are:

• Pivot (P): 25,296.73
• Support 1 (S1): 24,995.80
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,507.09

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 concluded yesterday at 6,858.47, reflecting a largely lateral trading day with a close near the center of its range. Levels to monitor include:

• Pivot (P): 6,859.22
• Support 1 (S1): 6,823.56
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,894.12

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed at 24,539.34, characterized by a substantially lateral session with its close positioned in the middle of the daily range. Critical technical levels are:

• Pivot (P): 24,555.04
• Support 1 (S1): 24,433.28
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,661.09

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB recorded a close of 45,374.00, following a moderately bullish session where it settled in the upper part of its daily range. Important levels for today's trading:

• Pivot (P): 45,245.33
• Support 1 (S1): 45,085.67
• Resistance 1 (R1): 45,533.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 ended yesterday at 2,508.22, showing a moderately bullish performance with its closing price in the upper segment of its range. Key levels include:

• Pivot (P): 2,499.84
• Support 1 (S1): 2,489.97
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,518.10

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Yield Outlook

Good morning and welcome to our daily market update. As we kick off the week, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics across various asset classes, alongside movements in the U.S. dollar and bond yields.

Equity Volatility: SPX and Nasdaq

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands at approximately 14.5%, broadly in line with its recent average. This suggests no evident extremes of fear or complacency are dominating the S&P 500 options market at present.
• Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is trading around 19.8%, also consistent with its recent historical mean. Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 is not signaling any immediate excesses in market sentiment based on implied volatility.
• A notable divergence exists between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500. The 10-day realized volatility for the SPX is approximately 8.3%, significantly lower than the VIX's implied volatility of 14.5%. This wide spread indicates a substantial risk premium currently embedded in the VIX, suggesting options traders are pricing in considerably more future volatility than has been observed in recent past performance.

Cross-Asset Volatility Snapshot

Beyond equities, implied volatility in other key assets also appears to be maintaining recent averages:

• GVZ (Gold Volatility) is around 23.8%, aligning with its recent mean, indicating no unusual speculative activity or hedging demand for gold.
• The OVX (Oil Volatility) stands at roughly 28.4%, also consistent with its recent average, suggesting a stable outlook for crude oil price swings.

USD and Bond Yields Update

The U.S. dollar has started the year on a cautious note, generally experiencing a slight depreciation against major currencies in early January 2026, extending a trend observed in late 2025. This softening of the dollar is partly influenced by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and a potential dovish tilt later in the year.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have shown some mixed movements. Short-term yields have remained relatively stable, reflecting current interest rate expectations. However, longer-term Treasury yields have seen some upward pressure amidst improving economic data and concerns over sustained inflationary pressures. The yield curve remains a key focus for investors, with ongoing debate about its future shape and implications for economic growth. Market participants will be closely watching upcoming economic indicators for further clues on the path of both inflation and interest rates, which will undoubtedly influence both bond yields and the dollar's trajectory in the coming weeks.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Today's Tactical Playbook

As markets open this Monday, a predominantly neutral bias defines the short-term outlook across major assets. Today's tactical playbook emphasizes range-trading strategies, with key pivot points guiding potential market-neutral optional structures. Traders should monitor confirmed breakouts beyond defined resistance or support levels for directional triggers.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is identified at 4,407.33. Key support levels are S1 at 4,378.57 and S2 at 4,325.83, while resistance levels are R1 at 4,460.07 and R2 at 4,488.83. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a market environment conducive to range-trading strategies between 4,378.57 and 4,460.07, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,407.33 pivot. Directional triggers would only be activated by confirmed breakouts above 4,488.83 or below 4,325.83.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude's daily pivot is set at 57.04. Support levels are S1 at 56.34 and S2 at 55.87, with resistance at R1 57.51 and R2 58.21. A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading within the 56.34 to 57.51 band, or market-neutral optional structures centered around the 57.04 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 58.21 or below 55.87 are necessary for directional plays.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot is at 1.1698. Support is found at S1 1.1668 and S2 1.1646, while resistance levels are R1 1.1720 and R2 1.1750. With a neutral bias, the pair is best approached with range-trading strategies between 1.1668 and 1.1720, or market-neutral optional structures near the 1.1698 pivot. Directional movements are anticipated only on confirmed breaks beyond 1.1750 or below 1.1646.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 daily pivot is at 25,296.73. Key support levels are S1 at 24,995.80 and S2 at 24,785.44, with resistances at R1 25,507.09 and R2 25,808.02. The bias remains neutral, indicating suitability for range-trading between 24,995.80 and 25,507.09, or market-neutral optional structures around 25,296.73. Directional triggers are contingent on confirmed breakouts above 25,808.02 or below 24,785.44.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500's daily pivot is 6,859.22. Supports are noted at S1 6,823.56 and S2 6,788.66, with resistances at R1 6,894.12 and R2 6,929.78. A neutral bias suggests range-trading strategies within the 6,823.56 to 6,894.12 range, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,859.22 pivot. Directional triggers will require confirmed breakouts above 6,929.78 or below 6,788.66.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX daily pivot is 24,555.04. Support levels are S1 at 24,433.28 and S2 at 24,327.23, while resistances are R1 24,661.09 and R2 24,782.85. The neutral bias favors range-trading between 24,433.28 and 24,661.09, or market-neutral optional structures near the 24,555.04 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 24,782.85 or below 24,327.23 are the directional triggers.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB daily pivot is 45,245.33. Supports are found at S1 45,085.67 and S2 44,797.33, with resistances at R1 45,533.67 and R2 45,693.33. The prevailing neutral bias makes range-trading between 45,085.67 and 45,533.67, or market-neutral optional structures around the 45,245.33 pivot, suitable. Directional triggers are contingent on confirmed breaks above 45,693.33 or below 44,797.33.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 daily pivot is at 2,499.84. Key support levels are S1 at 2,489.97 and S2 at 2,471.71, with resistances at R1 2,518.10 and R2 2,527.97. Maintaining a neutral bias, the index is suitable for range-trading strategies within 2,489.97 and 2,518.10, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,499.84 pivot. Directional triggers are expected only on confirmed breakouts above 2,527.97 or below 2,471.71.

This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.