Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 4, 2026

Markets enter the start of the week with a decidedly mixed tone. Equity indices globally are exhibiting a lack of strong directional conviction, characterized by ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows.

US Index Futures:

• US500 and NAS100 futures are indicating a slight positive bias heading into the new trading week, with an average upward movement of approximately +0.07%.
• Despite this marginal positive lean, traders should remain vigilant for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows. This suggests a market poised for tactical swings rather than broad trends at present.

Pre-Market Tone & Tactical Outlook:

The overarching pre-market sentiment reflects a wait-and-see approach as participants await fresh macro catalysts. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains elevated compared to its recent lows. This indicates that the market is currently pricing in and paying for protection, yet without signaling extreme panic. The environment encourages a highly tactical approach, focusing on support and resistance levels. Furthermore, market participants should be keenly aware of the potential for sudden headline-driven movements that could impact short-term dynamics.

Broader Market Observations:

• In the FX space, EURUSD is maintaining a neutral bias, with its direction largely influenced by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate differentials, as well as upcoming inflation and labor market data.
• Commodities like Gold and WTI Crude Oil also present a neutral bias. Their price action is currently a confluence of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: January 5, 2026

Good morning, and welcome to our weekly look ahead at the global markets. As we begin the first full trading week of the new year, investors are closely monitoring for fresh catalysts amidst a generally subdued start.

Asia

Asian markets are expected to open without strong directional conviction this morning. Trading activity is likely to remain contained, with a primary focus on local news developments and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. Major indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are anticipated to exhibit limited movements as market participants await clearer signals from regional economic indicators and policy updates.

Europe

European futures indicate a largely muted opening, suggesting a neutral trading environment as investors await new macroeconomic and political catalysts. Key indices like the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 are currently consolidating after recent sessions. The absence of significant market-moving news over the weekend means that attention will quickly turn to upcoming data releases and any commentary from central bank officials or political leaders that could provide fresh direction.

United States

US futures are showing mixed signals without a clear direction, indicating a consolidation phase after the movements of the past few sessions. This lack of immediate conviction reflects a wait-and-see approach from investors ahead of new data and corporate earnings reports.

Key Macro Calendar (CET) for the Week Ahead

The macroeconomic calendar for the upcoming week is of moderate significance, yet it contains several publications that could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets, particularly for the EURUSD pair and US indices.

• Morning: The early part of the week will see the release of confidence and production indicators across the Eurozone, along with various local updates. These will be crucial for assessing the current health of the European economy.
• Afternoon: Later in the week, focus will shift to the United States with important data releases concerning inflation, labor market conditions, or overall economic activity. These figures will be key drivers for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity markets.
• Evening: Investors should also monitor any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (BCE), as well as statistics on financial conditions. These could potentially lead to spikes in volatility as markets react to forward guidance or policy outlooks.

Overall, markets appear to be in a holding pattern, poised to react to incoming data and official communications as the week progresses.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels – January 4, 2026

Here's a look at key technical levels, supports, and resistances for major assets based on yesterday's closing data (January 3, 2026).

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,329.60, following an essentially lateral session with the closing price in the lower part of its daily range of 4,319.70 – 4,414.80.

• Pivot: 4,354.70
• Support 1 (S1): 4,294.60
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,389.70
• Support 2 (S2): 4,259.60
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,449.80

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended the session at 57.32. The asset experienced an essentially lateral session, closing in the central part of its daily range of 56.60 – 57.93.

• Pivot: 57.28
• Support 1 (S1): 56.64
• Resistance 1 (R1): 57.97
• Support 2 (S2): 55.95
• Resistance 2 (R2): 58.61

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1750. Yesterday's trading was an essentially lateral session, with the pair closing in the upper part of its daily range of 1.1713 – 1.1767.

• Pivot: 1.1744
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1720
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1774
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1690
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1798

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 concluded the day at 25,206.17. The index saw an essentially lateral session, closing in the lower part of its daily range of 25,086.36 – 25,597.65.

• Pivot: 25,296.73
• Support 1 (S1): 24,995.80
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,507.09
• Support 2 (S2): 24,785.44
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,808.02

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47, after an essentially lateral session with the closing price in the central part of its daily range of 6,824.31 – 6,894.87.

• Pivot: 6,859.22
• Support 1 (S1): 6,823.56
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,894.12
• Support 2 (S2): 6,788.66
• Resistance 2 (R2): 6,929.78

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX finished at 24,539.34. The German index experienced an essentially lateral session, closing in the central part of its daily range of 24,448.98 – 24,676.79.

• Pivot: 24,555.04
• Support 1 (S1): 24,433.28
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,661.09
• Support 2 (S2): 24,327.23
• Resistance 2 (R2): 24,782.85

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB closed yesterday at 45,374.00. The Italian index saw a moderately bullish session, ending in the upper part of its daily range of 44,957.00 – 45,405.00.

• Pivot: 45,245.33
• Support 1 (S1): 45,085.67
• Resistance 1 (R1): 45,533.67
• Support 2 (S2): 44,797.33
• Resistance 2 (R2): 45,693.33

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 finished at 2,508.22. The small-cap index experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of its daily range of 2,481.59 – 2,509.72.

• Pivot: 2,499.84
• Support 1 (S1): 2,489.97
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,518.10
• Support 2 (S2): 2,471.71
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,527.97

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

As we kick off the week, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics across asset classes, alongside key movements in the U.S. Dollar and bond yields, setting the stage for trading sessions ahead.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the "fear gauge" for the S&P 500, currently hovers around 14.5%. This level is largely in line with its recent average, suggesting no immediate signs of extreme complacency or panic in the broader market. However, a deeper dive into the relationship between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence. With 10-day realized volatility at approximately 8.3% against the VIX's 14.5%, the implied volatility priced by the VIX is notably higher than the actual volatility experienced over the short term. This substantial premium indicates an elevated risk premium, suggesting options traders are pricing in potential for future price swings despite recent calm.

Cross-asset volatility gauges are also reflecting a steady state. The VXN (Nasdaq 100 volatility) stands at roughly 19.8%, while the GVZ (Gold volatility) is around 23.8%, and the OVX (Oil volatility) measures approximately 28.4%. All these figures are consistent with their recent averages, signaling that, much like the broader market, these specific sectors are not currently exhibiting excessive fear or exuberance.

Looking at the broader macroeconomic landscape, the U.S. Dollar (USD) experienced a mixed performance last week, primarily influenced by shifts in interest rate expectations and global risk sentiment. The dollar generally strengthened against the euro but showed some softness against other major currencies as investors digested recent economic data and central bank commentary. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields saw notable movements, particularly in the longer end of the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for borrowing costs, finished last week slightly lower, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about inflation alongside expectations for future monetary policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve. This slight downtick in longer-dated yields suggests some market participants may be anticipating a more dovish stance from central banks in the coming months, or at least a plateau in current tightening cycles.

Summary: While headline volatility remains subdued, the elevated implied premium in the S&P 500 warrants attention. Concurrently, the nuanced movements in the USD and bond yields underscore the complex interplay of monetary policy expectations, inflation outlooks, and evolving risk appetites that will continue to shape market dynamics.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday/Multiday Tactical Playbook

Good morning, traders. As we commence the new trading week, our tactical playbook for major assets indicates a largely neutral bias across the board. The current market environment appears best suited for range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot points. Directional opportunities are contingent on confirmed breakouts beyond key resistance or support levels.

Here's a detailed look at the key levels and trading scenarios:

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,354.70
• First Support (S1): 4,294.60
• Second Support (S2): 4,259.60
• First Resistance (R1): 4,389.70
• Second Resistance (R2): 4,449.80
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 4,294.60 and 4,389.70, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,354.70 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 4,449.80 or below 4,259.60.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 57.28
• First Support (S1): 56.64
• Second Support (S2): 55.95
• First Resistance (R1): 57.97
• Second Resistance (R2): 58.61
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 56.64 and 57.97, or market-neutral optional structures around the 57.28 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 58.61 or below 55.95.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1744
• First Support (S1): 1.1720
• Second Support (S2): 1.1690
• First Resistance (R1): 1.1774
• Second Resistance (R2): 1.1798
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 1.1720 and 1.1774, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1744 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 1.1798 or below 1.1690.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,296.73
• First Support (S1): 24,995.80
• Second Support (S2): 24,785.44
• First Resistance (R1): 25,507.09
• Second Resistance (R2): 25,808.02
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 24,995.80 and 25,507.09, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,296.73 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 25,808.02 or below 24,785.44.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,859.22
• First Support (S1): 6,823.56
• Second Support (S2): 6,788.66
• First Resistance (R1): 6,894.12
• Second Resistance (R2): 6,929.78
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 6,823.56 and 6,894.12, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,859.22 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 6,929.78 or below 6,788.66.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,555.04
• First Support (S1): 24,433.28
• Second Support (S2): 24,327.23
• First Resistance (R1): 24,661.09
• Second Resistance (R2): 24,782.85
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 24,433.28 and 24,661.09, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,555.04 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 24,782.85 or below 24,327.23.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 45,245.33
• First Support (S1): 45,085.67
• Second Support (S2): 44,797.33
• First Resistance (R1): 45,533.67
• Second Resistance (R2): 45,693.33
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 45,085.67 and 45,533.67, or market-neutral optional structures around the 45,245.33 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 45,693.33 or below 44,797.33.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,499.84
• First Support (S1): 2,489.97
• Second Support (S2): 2,471.71
• First Resistance (R1): 2,518.10
• Second Resistance (R2): 2,527.97
• Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 2,489.97 and 2,518.10, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,499.84 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts above 2,527.97 or below 2,471.71.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation of public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.