Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Navigating Mixed Signals on a Quiet Saturday

Equity markets continue to present a mixed picture, with major indices lacking a strong directional impetus amidst ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows. As we enter the weekend, the underlying sentiment suggests a market poised for tactical plays rather than broad-based conviction.

US Index Futures & Pre-market Tone US equity index futures, specifically the US500 and NAS100, closed with a slight positive bias of +0.07, reflecting the nuanced pre-market tone. This subtle upward tilt comes as investors continue to weigh various macroeconomic factors. The market is not exhibiting extreme panic, yet volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains elevated compared to its recent lows. This indicates that while participants are willing to pay for protection, there is no immediate sign of a significant downside capitulation. The overall environment points towards a cautious optimism, where fundamental analysis and short-term tactical positioning are paramount.

Key Drivers and Tactical Focus The market remains acutely sensitive to upcoming macro catalysts. Going into the next trading week, the differential in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside critical inflation and labor market data, will be pivotal in shaping currency movements, particularly for EURUSD, which currently holds a neutral bias. Similarly, commodities such as gold and WTI crude oil are experiencing neutral biases, with their flows influenced by both broad macro trends and specific news pertaining to interest rates and global growth.

With no active trading on Saturday, the focus shifts to preparing for the week ahead. Tactical operations around key support and resistance levels will be crucial, and traders should remain vigilant for any sudden headline news that could trigger swift market reactions. The current environment calls for agility and a keen eye on technical breakouts or fakeouts at recent highs and lows. While broad momentum is absent, opportunities for selective engagement persist.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: A Quiet Start to the Weekend Ahead of Key Data

Global markets are entering the weekend with a generally subdued tone, as futures for major indices show limited directional conviction. Investors are assessing recent market movements and looking ahead to upcoming macroeconomic and political catalysts that could shape sentiment in the coming week. Trading conditions are expected to remain thin following the New Year holiday and as markets approach the weekend.

Asian Markets

While Asian stock markets generally posted a positive performance at the close of the trading week on Friday, January 2nd, with the Hang Seng Index increasing significantly, driven by technology shares and expectations of Chinese stimulus, the region's futures this Saturday morning are displaying limited directional conviction. Movements are contained as investors focus on local news and upcoming Chinese and Japanese economic data. Japan's Nikkei 225 and other regional indices also advanced on Friday.

European Markets

Following a robust close on Friday, where European equities advanced sharply on the first trading day of 2026, extending strong gains from 2025, European futures, including for the DAX and EuroStoxx 50, are currently little changed. This presents a neutral picture as market participants await fresh macroeconomic or political catalysts. The Euro Area's main stock market index, the EU50, rose to 5868 points on January 2, 2026, gaining 1.31% from the previous session.

US Markets

US futures are mixed and without a clear direction, indicating a phase of consolidation after the movements of recent sessions. US stock markets had a mixed performance on Friday, with major indices delivering a varied performance as big-name chip stocks continued their strong run into the new year.

Macroeconomic Calendar (CET)

The upcoming macroeconomic calendar is of moderate significance, but it includes several publications that could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: Expect confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, along with various local updates.
• Afternoon: Focus shifts to the USA, with data releases on inflation, employment, or activity (depending on the specific day). These will be key for the EUR/USD exchange rate and US indices.
• Evening: Any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB), as well as statistics on financial conditions, should be monitored for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (January 3, 2026)

As we head into the weekend, markets concluded yesterday's trading with a predominantly sideways tone across major assets, although some indices showed moderately bullish closes. Below are the key technical levels to watch, derived from yesterday's closing data.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,314.40, after trading within a range of 4,314.40 to 4,350.60. The session was largely lateral, with the precious metal settling at the lower end of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 4,326.47
• Support 1 (S1): 4,302.33 · Resistance 1 (R1): 4,338.53
• Support 2 (S2): 4,290.27 · Resistance 2 (R2): 4,362.67

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude finished yesterday at 57.32, having navigated a range from 56.60 to 57.93. The commodity experienced a largely sideways session, closing near the middle of its daily trading band.

• Classic Pivot (P): 57.28
• Support 1 (S1): 56.64 · Resistance 1 (R1): 57.97
• Support 2 (S2): 55.95 · Resistance 2 (R2): 58.61

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1750 yesterday, trading between 1.1713 and 1.1767. The currency pair demonstrated a generally sideways movement, concluding the session towards the upper end of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 1.1744
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1720 · Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1774
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1690 · Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1798

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 concluded yesterday at 25,206.17, after seeing a range from 25,086.36 to 25,597.65. The index showed a largely lateral performance, closing at the lower end of its daily trading spectrum.

• Classic Pivot (P): 25,296.73
• Support 1 (S1): 24,995.80 · Resistance 1 (R1): 25,507.09
• Support 2 (S2): 24,785.44 · Resistance 2 (R2): 25,808.02

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6,858.47, with its daily range spanning from 6,824.31 to 6,894.87. The session was largely sideways, with the index finishing in the middle of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 6,859.22
• Support 1 (S1): 6,823.56 · Resistance 1 (R1): 6,894.12
• Support 2 (S2): 6,788.66 · Resistance 2 (R2): 6,929.78

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX finished yesterday at 24,539.34, after trading within a range of 24,448.98 to 24,676.79. The index demonstrated a largely sideways session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 24,555.04
• Support 1 (S1): 24,433.28 · Resistance 1 (R1): 24,661.09
• Support 2 (S2): 24,327.23 · Resistance 2 (R2): 24,782.85

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB closed yesterday at 45,374.00, trading within a range of 44,957.00 to 45,405.00. The Italian index experienced a moderately bullish session, concluding at the higher end of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 45,245.33
• Support 1 (S1): 45,085.67 · Resistance 1 (R1): 45,533.67
• Support 2 (S2): 44,797.33 · Resistance 2 (R2): 45,693.33

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 finished yesterday at 2,508.22, with its daily range observed between 2,481.59 and 2,509.72. The index showed a moderately bullish performance, closing at the higher end of its daily trading range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 2,499.84
• Support 1 (S1): 2,489.97 · Resistance 1 (R1): 2,518.10
• Support 2 (S2): 2471.71 · Resistance 2 (R2): 2,527.97

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Update: Volatility and Key Macro Indicators

As markets move into the first weekend of the new year, a closer look at volatility and key macro indicators reveals a mixed but generally cautious sentiment. While cross-asset volatility remains largely in line with recent averages, a notable divergence between implied and realized volatility for the S&P 500 suggests investors are pricing in a higher risk premium. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar saw a slight uptick, and Treasury yields edged higher at the close of the trading week.

Volatility Snapshot

• The **VIX (S&P 500)**, a key gauge of market fear, stood at approximately 14.5%. This level is in line with its recent average, indicating no evident excess of either fear or complacency in the broader market.
• Similarly, volatility indices for other major assets also aligned with their recent averages: the **VXN (Nasdaq 100)** at ~19.8%, **GVZ (Gold)** at ~23.8%, and **OVX (Oil)** at ~28.4%. These figures suggest a consistent level of expected near-term price swings across these asset classes.

However, a significant observation emerges from the comparison of realized versus implied volatility for the S&P 500. With a 10-day realized volatility around 8.3% against the VIX's implied 14.5%, the implied volatility priced by the VIX is **much higher** than the realized volatility. This considerable spread points to an elevated risk premium, suggesting investors are demanding extra compensation for holding riskier assets due to potential future market turbulence, despite current calmer conditions.

Data for the **EVZ (EURUSD volatility)** and **VDAX (DAX volatility)** was not available, indicating potential feed issues or insufficient historical data for the period.

Currency Markets (USD)

The **US Dollar Index (DXY)**, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, experienced a slight increase, rising to 98.4345 on January 2, 2026, up 0.11% from the previous session. Another report noted a 0.2% advance to 98.47. This modest gain follows a significant year for the dollar, which registered a 9.4% decline in 2025, marking its steepest annual drop in eight years. Analysts will be closely watching upcoming economic data, including U.S. payrolls, for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path and its potential impact on the dollar.

Fixed Income (Bond Yields)

In the fixed income market, the **US 10-year Treasury yield** saw an uptick. On January 2, 2026, the yield rose to 4.20%, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the prior session. Other reports indicated the yield at 4.19% and 4.188%. This movement reflects investors' ongoing assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and broader economic expectations, particularly as market participants await more clarity on monetary policy for the year ahead.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Today

As we head into today's trading, market participants are advised to focus on key intraday and multiday levels across major assets. A neutral bias prevails across the board, suggesting a fertile ground for range-trading strategies and market-neutral optional structures. Definitive directional moves are contingent on confirmed breakouts beyond established resistance or support levels.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is identified at 4,326.47. Key support levels are S1 at 4,302.33 and S2 at 4,290.27. Resistance levels are R1 at 4,338.53 and R2 at 4,362.67. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 4,302.33 and 4,338.53, or market-neutral option strategies around the 4,326.47 pivot. Directional triggers will only emerge on confirmed breakouts above 4,362.67 or below 4,290.27.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude maintains a daily pivot at 57.28. Support levels are S1 at 56.64 and S2 at 55.95. Resistance levels are R1 at 57.97 and R2 at 58.61. A neutral bias suggests range-trading within 56.64 and 57.97, or market-neutral option strategies centered on the 57.28 pivot. Clear directional triggers require confirmed breakouts above 58.61 or below 55.95.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot is set at 1.1744. Support is seen at S1 1.1720 and S2 1.1690. Resistance levels are R1 at 1.1774 and R2 at 1.1798. With a neutral bias, the pair is best suited for range-trading between 1.1720 and 1.1774, or market-neutral option strategies around the 1.1744 pivot. Directional triggers will be confirmed on breakouts above 1.1798 or below 1.1690.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 daily pivot is at 25,296.73. Support levels are S1 at 24,995.80 and S2 at 24,785.44. Resistance levels are R1 at 25,507.09 and R2 at 25,808.02. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 24,995.80 and 25,507.09, or market-neutral option strategies around the 25,296.73 pivot. Directional triggers are expected on confirmed breakouts above 25,808.02 or below 24,785.44.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500's daily pivot is at 6,859.22. Support levels are S1 at 6,823.56 and S2 at 6,788.66. Resistance levels are R1 at 6,894.12 and R2 at 6,929.78. A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 6,823.56 and 6,894.12, or market-neutral option strategies around the 6,859.22 pivot. Directional triggers are contingent on confirmed breakouts above 6,929.78 or below 6,788.66.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX daily pivot stands at 24,555.04. Support levels are S1 at 24,433.28 and S2 at 24,327.23. Resistance levels are R1 at 24,661.09 and R2 at 24,782.85. With a neutral bias, range-trading between 24,433.28 and 24,661.09, or market-neutral option strategies around the 24,555.04 pivot are indicated. Directional triggers require confirmed breakouts above 24,782.85 or below 24,327.23.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is at 45,245.33. Support levels are S1 at 45,085.67 and S2 at 44,797.33. Resistance levels are R1 at 45,533.67 and R2 at 45,693.33. A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 45,085.67 and 45,533.67, or market-neutral option strategies around the 45,245.33 pivot. Directional triggers will be confirmed on breakouts above 45,693.33 or below 44,797.33.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 daily pivot is at 2,499.84. Support levels are S1 at 2,489.97 and S2 at 2,471.71. Resistance levels are R1 at 2,518.10 and R2 at 2,527.97. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 2,489.97 and 2,518.10, or market-neutral option strategies around the 2,499.84 pivot. Directional triggers are expected on confirmed breakouts above 2,527.97 or below 2,471.71.

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed. Trading in derivatives and leveraged instruments carries a high level of risk.