Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 2, 2026

Markets are starting Friday with a mixed tone as the new trading year gets underway. Equity indices across the globe are showing little strong directional conviction, characterized by ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows. Volatility remains a key theme, with the VIX hovering at elevated levels relative to recent lows, suggesting a market that is paying for downside protection without yet signaling extreme panic.

US Equity Futures

• US index futures are pointing to a slightly positive open, with both the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) futures indicating a modest bias of approximately +0.07%.
• Traders are advised to monitor for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as these levels could dictate intraday momentum given the lack of a clear broader trend.

Pre-Market Tone & Tactical Focus

The overall pre-market sentiment remains cautious as participants await fresh macro catalysts. Without significant economic data releases or major corporate news, today's trading is likely to be highly tactical. Focus will be on established support and resistance levels, with an increased emphasis on reacting to sudden headlines that could inject volatility. The current environment favors nimble trading strategies over strong directional bets.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update: January 2, 2026

Good morning and welcome to our daily market briefing. As we begin the day, global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts. Today is Friday, January 2, 2026.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying limited directional strength this morning. Movements remain contained, with investor focus primarily on local news and key economic data from China and Japan. We are observing subdued activity across major indices such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng, as participants digest recent developments and look for clearer signals.

Europe

European futures are showing minimal movement in early trading. The overall picture for now appears neutral, with investors holding back in anticipation of new macroeconomic or political catalysts. Key indices like the DAX and EuroStoxx are expected to reflect this wait-and-see approach as the session progresses.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar is of moderate significance, though several publications could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The European session will feature confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local economic updates. These releases will be closely watched for insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States, with the release of crucial data concerning inflation, employment, or economic activity (depending on the specific day). These figures will be key drivers for the EURUSD exchange rate and major US indices.
• Evening: Any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, should be monitored closely for potential spikes in volatility as the trading day concludes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets Technical Outlook - January 2, 2026

As we begin today's trading session, markets are exhibiting mixed technical signals following yesterday's activity. Gold and European equities showed bullish momentum, while major US indices experienced a moderately bearish close. Here's a look at the key technical levels for today, calculated based on yesterday's closing data:

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC)
  Yesterday's session was clearly bullish, with Gold closing at 4,391.90, near the upper end of its 4,337.30 – 4,395.00 daily range. The classic pivot point for today is 4,374.73, with immediate resistance (R1) at 4,412.17 and support (S1) at 4,354.47. A break above R1 could target R2 at 4,432.43, while a move below S1 may test S2 at 4,317.03.
• WTI Crude (CL)
  WTI Crude saw a moderately bullish session, closing at 57.91 within a tight 57.41 – 57.93 range, also at the upper end. The pivot point stands at 57.75. Traders will be watching R1 at 58.09 as the first hurdle, with further resistance at 58.27 (R2). On the downside, S1 is at 57.57, followed by S2 at 57.23.
• EUR/USD
  The EUR/USD pair experienced a largely sideways session, closing at 1.1740, which was at the lower end of its 1.1737 – 1.1769 range. The pivot point for today is 1.1749. Key levels to watch include R1 at 1.1760 and S1 at 1.1728. A break above R1 could see a push towards R2 at 1.1780, whereas a move below S1 may find further support at S2 (1.1717).
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
  The Nasdaq 100 closed at 25,249.85 after a moderately bearish session, ending near the lower end of its 25,244.86 – 25,483.77 daily range. The pivot point is established at 25,326.16. Resistance levels are at 25,407.46 (R1) and 25,565.07 (R2). Support levels are identified at 25,168.55 (S1) and 25,087.25 (S2).
• S&P 500 (SPX)
  The S&P 500 also had a moderately bearish session, closing at 6,845.50, at the lower end of its 6,844.55 – 6,901.42 range. The pivot point is 6,863.82. Immediate resistance is at 6,883.10 (R1), with a stronger resistance at 6,920.69 (R2). Support can be found at 6,826.23 (S1) and 6,806.95 (S2).
• DAX (DE40 / GER40)
  The DAX displayed a moderately bullish session, closing at 24,490.41, at the upper end of its 24,328.42 – 24,527.94 range. The pivot point for today is 24,448.92. Resistance levels are at 24,569.43 (R1) and 24,648.44 (R2). Key support levels are 24,369.91 (S1) and 24,249.40 (S2).
• FTSE MIB
  The FTSE MIB experienced a moderately bullish session, closing at 44,945.00, towards the upper end of its 44,413.00 – 45,005.00 range. The pivot point is 44,787.67. Resistance levels are at 45,162.33 (R1) and 45,379.67 (R2). Support levels are at 44,570.33 (S1) and 44,195.67 (S2).
• Russell 2000 (RUT)
  The Russell 2000 closed at 2,481.91, after a moderately bearish session, settling at the lower end of its 2,480.68 – 2,501.77 range. The pivot point for today is 2,488.12. Resistance is noted at 2,495.56 (R1) and 2,509.21 (R2). Support levels are at 2,474.47 (S1) and 2,467.03 (S2).

Today's trading will likely see market participants closely monitoring these technical levels for potential breakouts or reversals. The divergence in sentiment between bullish commodities/European indices and bearish US indices could lead to selective trading opportunities.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Update: Volatility and Key Macro Trends

Today, Friday, January 2, 2026, we observe a market environment characterized by elevated implied volatility relative to recent realized price swings, suggesting a notable risk premium.

Regarding the S&P 500, the VIX index stands at approximately 14.9%. This level is broadly in line with its recent average, indicating no immediate extremes of fear or complacency across the broader market. However, a closer look at the relationship between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence. While the 10-day realized volatility is around 10.7%, the VIX's implied volatility at 14.9% indicates that the market is currently pricing in a "very high" risk premium. This suggests investors are willing to pay up for protection against future downside movements, despite relatively calm recent price action.

Across other asset classes, volatility measures also remain in line with their recent averages, showing no immediate signs of stress or exuberance. The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at approximately 19.6%, the GVZ (Gold volatility) at about 23.9%, and the OVX (Oil volatility) at roughly 30.2%. Each of these figures suggests a steady state of implied volatility without evident excesses of fear or complacency in their respective markets.

Turning to the foreign exchange market, the U.S. Dollar has shown mixed performance this week. After an initial surge driven by safe-haven demand amidst global growth concerns, the dollar has since retreated slightly. Against a basket of major currencies, the DXY index is currently trading around [DXY_VALUE], reflecting ongoing currency fluctuations influenced by divergent monetary policy expectations and geopolitical developments.

In the fixed income market, bond yields have experienced some notable movements. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently hovering around [10_YEAR_YIELD_VALUE]%. This marks a [INCREASE/DECREASE] compared to last week, driven by [EXPLANATION_FOR_YIELD_MOVE_E.G._INFLATION_EXPECTATIONS_FED_SPECULATION]. Shorter-term yields have also seen adjustments, reflecting the market's evolving expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the path of interest rates.

The elevated implied volatility in equity markets, particularly the S&P 500's high risk premium, alongside ongoing shifts in currency and bond markets, underscores the dynamic nature of current financial conditions. Investors will continue to monitor incoming economic data and central bank commentary for further guidance.

Morning Markets Update: Volatility and Key Macro Trends

Today, Friday, January 2, 2026, we observe a market environment characterized by elevated implied volatility relative to recent realized price swings, suggesting a notable risk premium.

Regarding the S&P 500, the VIX index stands at approximately 14.9%. This level is broadly in line with its recent average, indicating no immediate extremes of fear or complacency across the broader market. However, a closer look at the relationship between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence. While the 10-day realized volatility is around 10.7%, the VIX's implied volatility at 14.9% indicates that the market is currently pricing in a "very high" risk premium. This suggests investors are willing to pay up for protection against future downside movements, despite relatively calm recent price action.

Across other asset classes, volatility measures also remain in line with their recent averages, showing no immediate signs of stress or exuberance. The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at approximately 19.6%, the GVZ (Gold volatility) at about 23.9%, and the OVX (Oil volatility) at roughly 30.2%. Each of these figures suggests a steady state of implied volatility without evident excesses of fear or complacency in their respective markets.

Turning to the foreign exchange market, the U.S. Dollar has shown mixed performance this week. The DXY index is currently trading around 98.22-98.36. The dollar edged up on Tuesday but remained close to its weakest level since early October. While it has seen a slight increase of 0.40% over the past week, it has declined by 1.17% in the past month and started 2026 on a weaker footing after its steepest annual loss in eight years. This performance comes as investors digest minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting, which indicated that most officials are inclined to cut interest rates further next year if inflation continues to ease, reinforcing expectations of a looser monetary policy stance.

In the fixed income market, bond yields have experienced some notable movements. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently hovering around 4.16% to 4.18%. This yield has increased by 0.10% over the past week and 3.25% over the month, though it remains down by 7.80% over the year. On January 1, 2026, the 10-year yield held steady at 4.17%. Meanwhile, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at approximately 3.47% to 3.63%. It has decreased by 1.56% over the past week and 0.71% over the month, and fallen by 18.54% over the year. Investors continue to weigh the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and upcoming economic releases, particularly next week's payroll report, for insights into the labor market and its implications for interest rates.

The elevated implied volatility in equity markets, particularly the S&P 500's high risk premium, alongside ongoing shifts in currency and bond markets, underscores the dynamic nature of current financial conditions. Investors will continue to monitor incoming economic data and central bank commentary for further guidance.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook – Friday, January 2, 2026

Today's market outlook suggests a predominantly neutral bias across key assets, favoring range-trading strategies. Traders should focus on defined support and resistance levels, with directional triggers emerging only upon confirmed breakouts.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold currently pivots around 4,374.70. Key support levels are identified at S1 4,354.40 and S2 4,317.00, while resistances are at R1 4,412.10 and R2 4,432.40. The bias remains neutral, making it suitable for range-trading strategies between 4,354.40 and 4,412.10, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,374.70 pivot. Directional triggers would require confirmed breakouts above 4,432.40 or below 4,317.00.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude's daily pivot is set at 57.75. Support levels are at S1 57.56 and S2 57.23, with resistance levels at R1 58.08 and R2 58.27. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading within the 57.56 to 58.08 range, or market-neutral options around the 57.75 pivot. Confirmed directional moves are anticipated only with breakouts beyond 58.27 or below 57.23.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

EUR/USD holds a daily pivot in the 1.1748 area. Immediate support is found at S1 1.1727, followed by S2 1.1716. Resistance levels are at R1 1.1759 and R2 1.1780. A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 1.1727 and 1.1759, or market-neutral option strategies around the 1.1748 pivot. Directional triggers will be activated by confirmed breakouts above 1.1780 or below 1.1716.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 sees a daily pivot at 25,326.16. Supports are marked at S1 25,168.55 and S2 25,087.25, while resistances are at R1 25,407.46 and R2 25,565.07. The index maintains a neutral bias, advocating for range-trading between 25,168.55 and 25,407.46, or market-neutral optional structures near the 25,326.16 pivot. A confirmed breakout beyond 25,565.07 or below 25,087.25 would signal a directional shift.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500's daily pivot is at 6,863.82. Key support levels are S1 6,826.23 and S2 6,806.95, with resistances at R1 6,883.10 and R2 6,920.69. A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading between 6,826.23 and 6,883.10, or market-neutral options around the 6,863.82 pivot. Directional triggers are contingent on confirmed breakouts above 6,920.69 or below 6,806.95.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX has a daily pivot at 24,448.92. Support levels are at S1 24,369.91 and S2 24,249.40, and resistances at R1 24,569.43 and R2 24,648.44. The bias is neutral, suggesting range-trading between 24,369.91 and 24,569.43, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 24,448.92 pivot. Directional shifts would require confirmed breakouts above 24,648.44 or below 24,249.40.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is noted at 44,787.67. Supports are found at S1 44,570.33 and S2 44,195.67, while resistances are at R1 45,162.33 and R2 45,379.67. The neutral bias encourages range-trading between 44,570.33 and 45,162.33, or market-neutral options around the 44,787.67 pivot. Directional triggers are expected on confirmed breakouts beyond 45,379.67 or below 44,195.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 has a daily pivot around 2,488.12. Support levels are S1 2,474.47 and S2 2,467.03, with resistances at R1 2,495.56 and R2 2,509.21. A neutral bias is in play, pointing to range-trading opportunities between 2,474.47 and 2,495.56, or market-neutral options around the 2,488.12 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers will occur with breakouts above 2,509.21 or below 2,467.03.