Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 1, 2026

As we begin the new year, global equity markets are exhibiting a mixed sentiment, characterized by a lack of strong directional bias. The prevailing environment points towards continued sectoral rotations and selective capital flows, indicating a nuanced landscape for investors.

US Index Futures and Pre-Market Tone

US index futures are showing a slightly positive inclination this morning, with the US500 and NAS100 futures indicating a mild upward bias of approximately +0.07. This modest strength suggests a cautious opening to the trading day. Participants are advised to remain vigilant for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, as market conviction remains fluid.

The broader pre-market tone is one of anticipation, with market participants keenly awaiting fresh macro catalysts. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, continues to trade at elevated levels relative to its recent lows. While this reflects a market willing to pay for protection, there are no immediate signals of extreme panic, suggesting a disciplined approach to risk management is currently in play.

Key Market Drivers and Tactical Focus

The EURUSD pair maintains a neutral bias, with its trajectory primarily influenced by the evolving interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside forthcoming inflation and labor market data. In the commodities complex, both Gold and WTI crude oil are also holding a neutral stance. Their price action is expected to reflect a blend of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news pertaining to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Today's tactical focus remains centered on identifying trading opportunities around established support and resistance levels. Given the prevailing market uncertainty and the wait for new fundamental drivers, sudden headline news could trigger sharp, albeit potentially temporary, movements. Therefore, agility and close monitoring of breaking developments will be paramount for navigating the session effectively.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Overview

As Thursday trading commences, global markets exhibit a cautious tone, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts to define clearer trends. Focus remains on key regional data and upcoming macro announcements.

Asia

• Asian markets are showing limited directional strength, with subdued movements as participants digest local news and economic data from China and Japan.
• The Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are reflecting this trend, trading without significant conviction in early Thursday sessions.

Europe

• European futures are relatively flat, indicating a neutral sentiment as the market awaits new macroeconomic or political developments.
• The outlook for the DAX and EuroStoxx currently points to a period of consolidation, with investors holding off on significant directional bets until further clarity emerges.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar, while of moderate overall significance, features several publications that could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: Investors will be monitoring confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates, which could provide initial directional cues.
• Afternoon: Key data from the USA is expected, potentially including updates on inflation, employment, or activity. These releases will be crucial for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Attention will turn to any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE). Additionally, statistics on financial conditions should be monitored for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels

Here are the key technical levels calculated on yesterday's closing data, updated as of January 1, 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,325.60
• Yesterday's Range: 4,285.00 – 4,363.80
• Classical Pivots: P 4,324.80 · S1 4,285.80 · R1 4,364.60 · S2 4,246.00 · R2 4,403.60
• Context: A moderately bearish session, with the close in the middle of the daily range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 57.42
• Yesterday's Range: 57.20 – 58.55
• Classical Pivots: P 57.72 · S1 56.90 · R1 58.25 · S2 56.37 · R2 59.07
• Context: A moderately bearish session, with the close in the lower part of the daily range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1750
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1750 – 1.1750
• Classical Pivots: P 1.1750 · S1 1.1750 · R1 1.1750 · S2 1.1750 · R2 1.1750
• Context: A largely sideways session, with the close in the middle of the daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,249.85
• Yesterday's Range: 25,244.86 – 25,483.77
• Classical Pivots: P 25,326.16 · S1 25,168.55 · R1 25,407.46 · S2 25,087.25 · R2 25,565.07
• Context: A moderately bearish session, with the close in the lower part of the daily range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,845.50
• Yesterday's Range: 6,844.55 – 6,901.42
• Classical Pivots: P 6,863.82 · S1 6,826.23 · R1 6,883.10 · S2 6,806.95 · R2 6,920.69
• Context: A moderately bearish session, with the close in the lower part of the daily range.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,490.41
• Yesterday's Range: 24,328.42 – 24,527.94
• Classical Pivots: P 24,448.92 · S1 24,369.91 · R1 24,569.43 · S2 24,249.40 · R2 24,648.44
• Context: A moderately bullish session, with the close in the upper part of the daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 44,945.00
• Yesterday's Range: 44,413.00 – 45,005.00
• Classical Pivots: P 44,787.67 · S1 44,570.33 · R1 45,162.33 · S2 44,195.67 · R2 45,379.67
• Context: A moderately bullish session, with the close in the upper part of the daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,481.91
• Yesterday's Range: 2,480.68 – 2,501.77
• Classical Pivots: P 2,488.12 · S1 2,474.47 · R1 2,495.56 · S2 2,467.03 · R2 2,509.21
• Context: A moderately bearish session, with the close in the lower part of the daily range.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

Volatility across asset classes remains a key focus for investors as we start the day.

Equity Volatility: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the "fear gauge" for the S&P 500, currently stands around 14.9%. This level is broadly in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident extremes of fear or complacency in the broader market. A closer look at the S&P 500's volatility structure reveals an interesting dynamic: the implied volatility priced by the VIX (~14.9%) is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility (~10.7%). This notable spread indicates a substantial risk premium embedded in options pricing, suggesting that market participants are demanding higher compensation for potential future price swings.

Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) is currently around 19.6%, also consistent with its recent average. This indicates a similar absence of extreme sentiment in the technology-heavy index.

Cross-Asset Volatility Overview Beyond equities, volatility metrics for other major asset classes also appear to be in line with their recent averages: * Gold Volatility (GVZ): Trading around 23.9%, showing no exceptional fear or complacency. * Oil Volatility (OVX): At approximately 30.2%, also within its recent range.

It's important to note that specific volatility data for the EUR/USD currency pair (EVZ) and the German DAX index (VDAX) is currently unavailable, possibly due to feed issues or insufficient historical data.

USD and Bond Yields The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, is currently trading around 102.73, indicating a slight decline from recent highs as of early Thursday trading. This modest pullback comes as investors continue to digest recent economic data and Federal Reserve communications.

In the fixed income market, U.S. Treasury yields are seeing some movement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.25% this morning. Meanwhile, the more policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield is around 4.54%. The inverted yield curve (where short-term yields are higher than long-term yields) persists, often signaling market expectations of future economic slowdowns or tighter monetary policy. This dynamic continues to be a central theme in financial markets, influencing everything from corporate borrowing costs to investor sentiment.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday / Multi-Day Tactical Playbook

As of Thursday, market participants are advised to consider the following technical levels and strategies for key assets. A neutral bias predominates across the board, suggesting a preference for range-trading strategies or market-neutral option structures around daily pivots, unless significant directional breakouts are confirmed.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is identified at 4,324.80. Key support levels are S1 at 4,285.80 and S2 at 4,246.00, while resistances are R1 at 4,364.60 and R2 at 4,403.60. Given a neutral bias, a range-trading approach between 4,285.80 and 4,364.60 is suitable, or market-neutral option strategies around the 4,324.80 pivot. Directional triggers would activate only upon confirmed breakouts above 4,403.60 or below 4,246.00.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude holds a daily pivot at 57.72. Support levels are established at S1 56.90 and S2 56.37, with resistance levels at R1 58.25 and R2 59.07. The bias remains neutral, favoring range-trading strategies within the 56.90 to 58.25 band, or market-neutral options centered on the 57.72 pivot. Directional movements are anticipated only if prices confirm a breakout above 59.07 or below 56.37.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot is at 1.1750, with all primary support and resistance levels (S1, S2, R1, R2) also at 1.1750. With a neutral bias, the context is best suited for range-trading between 1.1750 and 1.1750, or market-neutral option structures around the 1.1750 pivot. Directional triggers would require confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1750 or below 1.1750.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 sees its daily pivot at 25,326.16. Supports are found at S1 25,168.55 and S2 25,087.25, while resistances are at R1 25,407.46 and R2 25,565.07. A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 25,168.55 and 25,407.46, or market-neutral options around the 25,326.16 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 25,565.07 or below 25,087.25 would act as directional triggers.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

For the S&P 500, the daily pivot is at 6,863.82. Support levels are S1 6,826.23 and S2 6,806.95, with resistance levels at R1 6,883.10 and R2 6,920.69. The prevailing neutral bias indicates suitability for range-trading between 6,826.23 and 6,883.10, or market-neutral option strategies around the 6,863.82 pivot. Directional triggers are set for confirmed movements above 6,920.69 or below 6,806.95.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX has a daily pivot at 24,448.92. Support levels are S1 24,369.91 and S2 24,249.40, while resistance levels are R1 24,569.43 and R2 24,648.44. With a neutral bias, the preferred strategy is range-trading between 24,369.91 and 24,569.43, or market-neutral option structures around the 24,448.92 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed upon breakouts beyond 24,648.44 or below 24,249.40.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is at 44,787.67. Supports are seen at S1 44,570.33 and S2 44,195.67, with resistances at R1 45,162.33 and R2 45,379.67. A neutral bias suggests range-trading within the 44,570.33 to 45,162.33 range, or market-neutral options around the 44,787.67 pivot. Directional triggers would be on confirmed breakouts above 45,379.67 or below 44,195.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

For the Russell 2000, the daily pivot is at 2,488.12. Support levels are S1 2,474.47 and S2 2,467.03, with resistance levels at R1 2,495.56 and R2 2,509.21. The neutral bias advocates for range-trading between 2,474.47 and 2,495.56, or market-neutral option strategies around the 2,488.12 pivot. Directional shifts are expected on confirmed breakouts above 2,509.21 or below 2,467.03.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.