Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Markets are poised for a mixed close to the year, with a discernible lack of strong direction across major equity indices. Sector rotations and selective flows continue to dominate, reflecting an environment where investors are actively seeking catalysts.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone

US index futures are showing a slight positive bias in pre-market trading, with both the US500 and NAS100 indicating an average uptick of approximately +0.07%. Attention remains sharply focused on potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as tactical positioning takes precedence. The overall pre-market tone is one of cautious optimism, underscored by elevated volatility.

Volatility & Market Dynamics

The Volatility Index (VIX) is currently trading at levels significantly higher than its recent lows. This suggests that the market is actively paying for downside protection, indicating a degree of underlying uncertainty, yet without displaying signs of extreme panic. Flows remain selective, implying that individual stock performance will likely be driven by company-specific news or technical levels as market participants await fresh macro catalysts.

Global Asset Classes & Tactical Outlook

• FX: The EURUSD pair maintains a neutral bias. Its trajectory continues to be dictated by the differential in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside incoming inflation and labor market data.
• Commodities: Both Gold and WTI crude oil exhibit a neutral bias. Price movements in these assets are reflecting a combination of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

For the trading day, the tactical focus remains on identifying opportunities around established support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to monitor for sudden headlines that could trigger swift market reactions, given the prevailing wait-and-see sentiment ahead of new macro drivers.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Global Equities Eye Consolidation Amidst Data Watch

Global markets are showing a subdued start this Wednesday, with investors largely awaiting fresh catalysts to define direction. Futures across major regions suggest a period of consolidation after recent movements, placing a keen focus on upcoming macroeconomic releases.

Asia: Local Dynamics in Focus

Asian markets are displaying limited directional conviction this morning. Movements remain contained, with investor attention largely gravitating towards local news and key economic data from China and Japan. Major indices like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng are reflecting this cautious sentiment, trading without strong momentum as participants digest regional developments.

Europe: Awaiting Fresh Impetus

European futures are trading with minimal movement, suggesting a neutral open for indices such as the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50. The current market framework appears to be one of anticipation, as investors await new macroeconomic or political catalysts to provide clearer direction. Traders will be closely monitoring any developments that could shift this neutral stance.

Key Macroeconomic Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar, while of moderate overall importance, features several publications with the potential to influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange:

• Morning: The European session will see the release of confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These figures could offer insights into the region's economic health and potentially impact EUR pairs.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with the publication of key data related to inflation, labor, or activity (depending on the specific day's schedule). These releases are particularly crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and US equity indices, as they can significantly shape expectations regarding monetary policy.
• Evening: Any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored. Such events have the potential to induce spikes in volatility, particularly in currency markets.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Market Technical Levels

As of Wednesday, December 31, 2025, market participants will be closely watching the following key technical levels based on yesterday's closing data. These provide essential reference points for intraday trading, highlighting potential areas of support and resistance.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a moderately bearish session yesterday, closing at 4,344.70, in the middle of its daily range of 4,284.30 – 4,384.90. Key classical pivot points for today include:

• Pivot (P): 4,337.97
• Support 1 (S1): 4,291.03 · Support 2 (S2): 4,237.37
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,391.63 · Resistance 2 (R2): 4,438.57

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude traded largely sideways, closing at 57.90 at the lower end of its daily range of 57.79 – 58.24. Intraday levels to monitor are:

• Pivot (P): 57.98
• Support 1 (S1): 57.71 · Support 2 (S2): 57.53
• Resistance 1 (R1): 58.16 · Resistance 2 (R2): 58.43

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a largely sideways session, closing at 1.1740 near the middle of its daily range of 1.1733 – 1.1752. The technical levels for today are:

• Pivot (P): 1.1742
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1731 · Support 2 (S2): 1.1722
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1750 · Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1761

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 25,462.56, having experienced a largely sideways session and ending towards the lower part of its 25,456.93 – 25,577.58 range. Key levels include:

• Pivot (P): 25,499.02
• Support 1 (S1): 25,420.47 · Support 2 (S2): 25,378.37
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,541.12 · Resistance 2 (R2): 25,619.67

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 concluded a largely sideways session yesterday at 6,896.24, closing in the lower segment of its 6,893.47 – 6,913.25 range. Traders should monitor these pivots:

• Pivot (P): 6,900.99
• Support 1 (S1): 6,888.72 · Support 2 (S2): 6,881.21
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,908.50 · Resistance 2 (R2): 6,920.77

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX saw a moderately bullish session, closing at 24,490.41 at the upper end of its 24,328.42 – 24,527.94 range. Important technical points are:

• Pivot (P): 24,448.92
• Support 1 (S1): 24,369.91 · Support 2 (S2): 24,249.40
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,569.43 · Resistance 2 (R2): 24,648.44

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB experienced a moderately bullish session, closing at 44,945.00 near the high of its daily range of 44,413.00 – 45,005.00. The following classical pivots are in play:

• Pivot (P): 44,787.67
• Support 1 (S1): 44,570.33 · Support 2 (S2): 44,195.67
• Resistance 1 (R1): 45,162.33 · Resistance 2 (R2): 45,379.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,500.59 after a moderately bearish session, settling towards the lower end of its 2,500.49 – 2,520.91 range. Key technical reference points include:

• Pivot (P): 2,507.33
• Support 1 (S1): 2,493.75 · Support 2 (S2): 2,486.91
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,514.17 · Resistance 2 (R2): 2,527.75

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Market Volatility Update

Market volatility remains a key focus for investors as we approach the end of the year. The S&P 500's implied volatility, as measured by the VIX, stands at approximately 14.3%. While this is in line with its recent average, suggesting no overt excesses of fear or complacency in the broader market, a closer look reveals an interesting dynamic. The implied volatility priced by the VIX is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility for the SPX, which is around 9.9%. This substantial difference indicates a relatively high risk premium currently embedded in options pricing, suggesting that market participants are demanding extra compensation for potential future price swings.

Across other asset classes, implied volatility measures are largely consistent with recent averages:

• The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at approximately 19.0%.
• GVZ (Gold) is around 24.8%.
• OVX (Oil) is at approximately 30.8%.

These figures suggest a balanced sentiment without extreme fear or excessive complacency in these specific markets. Data for EVZ (EURUSD volatility) and VDAX (DAX volatility) are currently unavailable, possibly due to feed issues or insufficient historical data.

USD Performance and Bond Yields

Turning to currency markets, the US Dollar (USD) has demonstrated resilience in December 2025, supported by sustained interest rate differentials and a cautious global economic outlook. Despite some fluctuations, the dollar generally maintained strength against major counterparts like the Euro and Japanese Yen throughout the month.

In the bond market, US Treasury yields have seen moderate movements as investors weigh inflation expectations against growth prospects. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for global borrowing costs, has recently hovered around 4.30% to 4.35%. This level reflects a market that is balancing expectations of continued Federal Reserve policy and the broader economic trajectory into the new year.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As we approach today's trading session on Wednesday, the overall market bias remains neutral across key assets. This environment suggests a preference for range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures, with directional triggers contingent upon significant breakouts beyond established resistance or support levels.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

The daily pivot for Gold is set at 4,337.63. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 4,290.37 and second support (S2) at 4,237.03. On the upside, first resistance (R1) is at 4,390.97, with second resistance (R2) at 4,438.23.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 4,290.37 and 4,390.97, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,337.63 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 4,438.23 or below 4,237.03.

WTI Crude (CL)

The daily pivot for WTI Crude is set at 57.98. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 57.71 and second support (S2) at 57.53. On the upside, first resistance (R1) is at 58.16, with second resistance (R2) at 58.43.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 57.71 and 58.16, or market-neutral optional structures around the 57.98 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 58.43 or below 57.53.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The daily pivot for EUR/USD is set at 1.1742. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 1.1731 and second support (S2) at 1.1722. On the upside, first resistance (R1) is at 1.1750, with second resistance (R2) at 1.1761.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 1.1731 and 1.1750, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1742 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 1.1761 or below 1.1722.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The daily pivot for Nasdaq 100 is set at 25,499.02. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 25,420.47 and second support (S2) at 25,378.37. On the upside, first resistance (R1) is at 25,541.12, with second resistance (R2) at 25,619.67.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 25,420.47 and 25,541.12, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,499.02 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 25,619.67 or below 25,378.37.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The daily pivot for S&P 500 is set at 6,900.99. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 6,888.72 and second support (S2) at 6,881.21. On the upside, first resistance (R1) is at 6,908.50, with second resistance (R2) at 6,920.77.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 6,888.72 and 6,908.50, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,900.99 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 6,920.77 or below 6,881.21.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The daily pivot for DAX is set at 24,448.92. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 24,369.91 and second support (S2) at 24,249.40. On the upside, first resistance (R1) is at 24,569.43, with second resistance (R2) at 24,648.44.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 24,369.91 and 24,569.43, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,448.92 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 24,648.44 or below 24,249.40.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The daily pivot for FTSE MIB is set at 44,787.67. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 44,570.33 and second support (S2) at 44,195.67. On the upside, first resistance (R1) is at 45,162.33, with second resistance (R2) at 45,379.67.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 44,570.33 and 45,162.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,787.67 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 45,379.67 or below 44,195.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The daily pivot for Russell 2000 is set at 2,507.33. Key levels to watch include first support (S1) at 2,493.75 and second support (S2) at 2,486.91. On the upside, first resistance (R1) at 2,514.17, with second resistance (R2) at 2,527.75.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 2,493.75 and 2,514.17, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,507.33 pivot. Directional triggers would only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 2,527.75 or below 2,486.91.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.