Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Awaiting Catalysts Amidst Mixed Sentiment

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday's market commentary. Global markets are exhibiting a mixed sentiment this morning, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction and ongoing sector rotations. Investors are currently engaging in selective flows as they position themselves for potential shifts.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone US equity index futures are showing a modest positive bias in pre-market trading, with the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) indicating a slight uptick of approximately +0.07%. The overarching theme remains one of caution, however, as traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels, particularly around recent highs and lows, for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios. This suggests a tactical approach to trading, with an emphasis on intraday price action rather than strong directional bets.

FX and Commodities in Focus In the foreign exchange market, EURUSD maintains a neutral bias. The pair continues to be influenced by the divergent monetary policy paths of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with upcoming inflation and labor data expected to provide further guidance.

Commodity markets are also reflecting a neutral stance across the board. Gold is trading with a neutral bias, as is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. Flows in these markets are currently being driven by a combination of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility Outlook Volatility remains a key consideration for market participants. The VIX, a widely watched gauge of market fear, is currently trading at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. This indicates that the market is actively pricing in and paying for protection, although there are no immediate signs of extreme panic.

Tactical Focus for the Day The tactical focus for today revolves around the anticipation of fresh macroeconomic catalysts. Given the current environment, traders are advised to adopt a highly tactical approach, focusing on support and resistance levels for entry and exit points. Furthermore, vigilance against sudden headline-driven movements remains paramount. While significant pre-market top movers are yet to clearly emerge, the market is poised to react swiftly to any new information that could provide a clearer direction.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Tuesday Outlook

Global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone this Tuesday, with a lack of strong directional conviction across major regions as investors await fresh catalysts.

Asia:

• Asian markets have shown limited strong directionality, with movements largely contained.
• The focus remains on local news developments and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. We anticipate indices such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng to reflect this measured sentiment.

Europe:

• European futures are displaying little movement in early trading, indicating a neutral framework for now.
• Investors are currently awaiting new macroeconomic or political catalysts to provide clearer direction for indices like the DAX and EuroStoxx.

Macro Calendar (CET):

Today's economic calendar, while of moderate overall significance, contains several publications that could influence market sentiment for indices and FX:

• Morning: Euro area confidence and production indicators, alongside various local updates, will be closely watched.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts to the United States with the release of key data points relating to inflation, labor, or activity. These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, should be monitored for potential spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - December 30, 2025

As trading commences this Tuesday, December 30, 2025, market participants will be closely monitoring key technical levels established from yesterday's closing data. These levels provide crucial reference points for potential support and resistance, guiding intraday trading strategies across major indices, commodities, and currency pairs.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,384.70 following a moderately bullish session, with prices finishing in the upper portion of the day's range of 4,338.80 – 4,394.70. The classical pivot point stands at 4,372.73. Key support levels are identified at S1 4,350.77 and S2 4,316.83, while resistance levels are seen at R1 4,406.67 and R2 4,428.63.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended the day at 58.06 after a largely sideways session, closing towards the top end of its daily range between 57.60 – 58.21. The intraday pivot is calculated at 57.96. Support levels are marked at S1 57.70 and S2 57.35. Resistance levels are found at R1 58.31 and R2 58.57.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1770 yesterday, experiencing a largely lateral trading session and settling at the lower end of its 1.1770 – 1.1783 range. The central pivot for today is at 1.1774. Immediate supports are at S1 1.1766 and S2 1.1762, with resistances at R1 1.1779 and R2 1.1787.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 concluded yesterday's trading at 25,525.56. The session was largely sideways, with the index closing near the middle of its 25,440.97 – 25,598.14 range. The pivotal point for intraday trading is 25,521.56. Supports are noted at S1 25,444.97 and S2 25,364.39, while resistances are at R1 25,602.14 and R2 25,678.73.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed at 6,905.74, reflecting a generally lateral movement that saw it finish within the central part of its 6,888.76 – 6,920.21 daily range. The classic pivot point is 6,904.90. Traders will watch S1 6,889.60 and S2 6,873.45 for support, and R1 6,921.05 and R2 6,936.35 for resistance.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed at 24,351.12 after a substantially sideways session, with the index finishing in the upper part of its 24,253.73 – 24,389.15 range. The pivot point is established at 24,331.33. Key supports are found at S1 24,273.52 and S2 24,195.91, with resistances at R1 24,408.94 and R2 24,466.75.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB ended yesterday at 44,436.00, navigating a largely lateral session and closing towards the lower boundary of its 44,418.00 – 44,660.00 range. The pivot point for today's trading is 44,504.67. Supports are set at S1 44,349,33 and S2 44,262,67, while resistances are at R1 44,591,33 and R2 44,746,67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,519.80 yesterday, experiencing a moderately bearish session and ending in the lower segment of its 2,515.68 – 2,533.65 daily range. The pivot point is calculated at 2,523.04. Support levels are identified at S1 2,512.44 and S2 2,505.07, with resistance levels at R1 2,530.41 and R2 2,541.01.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied & Term-Structure

Equity market volatility remains in check as of Tuesday morning. The VIX (S&P 500) stands at approximately 14.2%, which is in line with its recent average, suggesting neither excessive fear nor complacency among investors. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is hovering around 18.4%, also consistent with its recent historical levels.

A closer look at the S&P 500 reveals a notable divergence between realized and implied volatility. The 10-day realized volatility is around 10.0%, significantly below the VIX's implied 14.2%. This indicates that the implied volatility priced into options, as reflected by the VIX, is substantially above recent realized price movements, suggesting an elevated risk premium in the market.

Cross-asset volatility presents a mixed picture. GVZ (Gold Volatility) is at approximately 25.7%, moderately above its 20-day average. This suggests that the market is paying for protection in gold, though without signs of panic. In contrast, OVX (Oil Volatility) is around 32.2%, in line with its recent average, indicating no obvious excesses of fear or complacency in the oil market.

Data for EVZ (EURUSD) and VDAX (DAX) are currently unavailable, potentially due to feed issues or insufficient historical data.

USD and Bond Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some fluctuations as December 2025 draws to a close, reacting to evolving expectations around Federal Reserve policy and global economic data. Recent trends suggest the dollar is consolidating after a period of strength, with investors closely watching upcoming economic indicators for further direction.

In the bond market, US Treasury yields have remained a focal point. The 10-year US Treasury yield has been trading within a relatively tight range, influenced by inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. The 2-year US Treasury yield, more sensitive to near-term monetary policy, has also seen movements reflecting market sentiment on the timing and magnitude of potential rate adjustments. Overall, the bond market continues to price in a cautious outlook amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

As we begin Tuesday's trading, a largely neutral bias prevails across key assets, suggesting a environment conducive to range-trading strategies. Traders should monitor crucial pivot points and observe confirmed breakouts for potential directional shifts.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC):

• Daily Pivot: 4,372.93
• Support Levels: S1 4,351.17, S2 4,317.03
• Resistance Levels: R1 4,407.07, R2 4,428.83
• Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading between 4,351.17 and 4,407.07, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,372.93 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,428.83 or below 4,317.03.

WTI Crude (CL):

• Daily Pivot: 57.96
• Support Levels: S1 57.70, S2 57.35
• Resistance Levels: R1 58.31, R2 58.57
• Bias: Neutral. The context is suitable for range-trading between 57.70 and 58.31, or market-neutral optional structures around the 57.96 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 58.57 or below 57.35.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E):

• Daily Pivot: 1.1775
• Support Levels: S1 1.1767, S2 1.1762
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1779, R2 1.1787
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading approach is suggested between 1.1767 and 1.1779, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1775 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1787 or below 1.1762.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ):

• Daily Pivot: 25,521.56
• Support Levels: S1 25,444.97, S2 25,364.39
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,602.14, R2 25,678.73
• Bias: Neutral. The environment is suited for range-trading between 25,444.97 and 25,602.14, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,521.56 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,678.73 or below 25,364.39.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY):

• Daily Pivot: 6,904.90
• Support Levels: S1 6,889.60, S2 6,873.45
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,921.05, R2 6,936.35
• Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading between 6,889.60 and 6,921.05, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,904.90 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,936.35 or below 6,873.45.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX):

• Daily Pivot: 24,331.33
• Support Levels: S1 24,273.52, S2 24,195.91
• Resistance Levels: R1 24,408.94, R2 24,466.75
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading strategy is advisable between 24,273.52 and 24,408.94, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,331.33 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 24,466.75 or below 24,195.91.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO):

• Daily Pivot: 44,504.67
• Support Levels: S1 44,349.33, S2 44,262.67
• Resistance Levels: R1 44,591.33, R2 44,746.67
• Bias: Neutral. Ideal for range-trading between 44,349.33 and 44,591.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,504.67 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 44,746.67 or below 44,262.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM):

• Daily Pivot: 2,523.04
• Support Levels: S1 2,512.44, S2 2,505.07
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,530.41, R2 2,541.01
• Bias: Neutral. The current environment supports range-trading between 2,512.44 and 2,530.41, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,523.04 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,541.01 or below 2,505.07.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data considered reliable but not guaranteed; operating with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.