Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets Update: December 29, 2025

Global equity markets are opening with a mixed tone this Monday, as investors navigate year-end positioning and a lack of strong directional catalysts. The overall sentiment reflects sector rotations and selective capital flows, suggesting a cautious approach as the market awaits fresh macroeconomic signals.

In the US, index futures show a slightly positive bias in early trading, with Dow Jones futures edging higher by 0.15 percent. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures registered marginal slips of 0.03 percent and 0.07 percent respectively, indicating subdued sentiment, particularly in technology-heavy stocks. Traders are advised to remain vigilant for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, as these levels could dictate short-term movements. The broader economic outlook for 2026 anticipates sturdy global growth, though with caveats around specific regional performances and ongoing inflation dynamics.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains elevated compared to its recent lows. This suggests that while the market is paying for protection, there are currently no signs of extreme panic. This elevated VIX, coupled with general market caution, supports a tactical trading environment focused on support and resistance levels.

The foreign exchange market sees EURUSD with a neutral bias, primarily driven by the differential in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data. In commodities, both gold and WTI crude oil maintain a neutral bias, with their price movements reflecting a combination of macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Looking ahead, the market's tactical focus for the day remains squarely on the emergence of new macroeconomic catalysts. Given the current mixed environment and selective flows, specific top movers are likely to be influenced by sudden headlines or company-specific developments rather than broad market trends. Investors should be prepared for tactical trading opportunities and remain attentive to any unexpected news. Consumer confidence in the US declined in December for the fifth consecutive month, reflecting negative perceptions of business conditions and deepening apprehensions about jobs and income. However, expectations for stock prices twelve months out were the most positive since January 2025.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets - December 29, 2025

Global markets are showing a generally cautious tone this Monday, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts and digesting local developments across key regions. A light macro calendar early in the week may keep trading volumes subdued, though specific data releases later in the day could introduce volatility.

Asia

Asian markets are reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction this morning, with movements remaining contained. The focus remains squarely on local news and forthcoming economic data from both China and Japan. Investors will be scrutinizing these releases for clues on regional economic health and potential policy shifts. The Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are expected to trade within narrow ranges as market participants seek clearer signals.

Europe

European futures indicate a relatively flat open, suggesting a neutral picture as the trading week commences. The market awaits new macro or political catalysts to provide direction. This cautious stance is likely to keep major indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx trading with limited momentum in the absence of significant news. Attention will also be on local updates within the Euro area.

United States

US futures are currently mixed, showing no clear direction as the market appears to be in a phase of consolidation following the movements observed in recent sessions. Investors are likely taking a breather, assessing previous week's performance and awaiting new economic inputs.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for today, Monday, December 29, 2025, is of moderate relevance but includes several publications that could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange. Traders should be attentive to the following:

• Morning: Expect indicators related to business confidence and industrial production from the Eurozone. Local updates from individual European economies will also be released, potentially affecting regional equity markets.
• Afternoon: Key data from the United States will be published, which could include updates on inflation, employment, or overall economic activity. These releases are particularly crucial for the EURUSD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches or remarks from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (BCE) should be closely monitored. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions could be released, potentially leading to spikes in volatility across various asset classes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets Update - Monday, December 29, 2025

Welcome to our Morning Markets Update, providing a concise overview of key technical levels as of today, December 29, 2025, based on yesterday's closing data.

Commodities & Currencies

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Gold closed yesterday at 4,496.90, experiencing a moderately bearish session and settling in the lower part of its daily range of 4,463.30 – 4,581.30.
• Key classic pivot levels for today are: P 4,513.83 · S1 4,446.37 · R1 4,564.37 · S2 4,395.83 · R2 4,631.83.

WTI Crude (CL)

• WTI Crude finished yesterday at 57.34, marking a moderately bullish session and closing towards the higher end of its 56.91 – 57.52 range.
• Today's classic pivot points: P 57.26 · S1 56.99 · R1 57.60 · S2 56.65 · R2 57.87.

EUR/USD

• The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1780 yesterday, following a largely sideways session that saw it finish in the upper part of its 1.1758 – 1.1790 range.
• Important classic pivot levels are: P 1.1776 · S1 1.1762 · R1 1.1794 · S2 1.1744 · R2 1.1808.

Major Equity Indices

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 25,644.39. The session was largely lateral, with the index closing in the lower part of its daily range of 25,620.32 – 25,716.71.
• Key classic pivot levels for the day are: P 25,660.47 · S1 25,604.24 · R1 25,700.63 · S2 25,564.08 · R2 25,756.86.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• The S&P 500 concluded yesterday at 6,929.94, showing a broadly lateral movement and closing centrally within its 6,921.60 – 6,945.77 range.
• Today's classic pivot points are: P 6,932.44 · S1 6,919.10 · R1 6,943.27 · S2 6,908.27 · R2 6,956.61.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• The DAX closed at 24,340.06 yesterday. The session was largely sideways, with the index finishing in the upper part of its 24,257.47 – 24,362.01 range.
• Classic pivot levels to watch: P 24,319.85 · S1 24,277.68 · R1 24,382.22 · S2 24,215.31 · R2 24,424.39.

FTSE MIB

• The FTSE MIB concluded yesterday at 44,607.00. It experienced a largely lateral session, closing near the middle of its 44,457.00 – 44,724.00 range.
• Key classic pivot points are: P 44,596.00 · S1 44,468.00 · R1 44,735.00 · S2 44,329.00 · R2 44,863.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• The Russell 2000 closed at 2,534.35 yesterday, following a moderately bearish session and settling in the central part of its 2,527.36 – 2,546.78 range.
• Today's classic pivot levels: P 2,536.16 · S1 2,525.55 · R1 2,544.97 · S2 2,516.74 · R2 2,555.58.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Remains Subdued, USD Under Pressure Amid Rate Cut Bets, Bond Yields Steady

Equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500), stands at approximately 13.6%, largely consistent with its recent average. This suggests no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency dominating the S&P 500. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is tracking around 17.4%, also in line with its recent mean, indicating a balanced sentiment in tech-heavy indices.

Across other asset classes, the volatility picture presents a mixed but generally calm outlook. Gold volatility (GVZ) is notably at approximately 25.8%, moderately above its 20-day average, suggesting that the market is currently assigning a premium for protection in gold without exhibiting outright panic. Meanwhile, oil volatility (OVX) at roughly 32.2% remains consistent with its recent average, showing no unusual stress or comfort in energy markets.

Examining the relationship between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500, the 10-day realized volatility is around 11.4%, while the VIX, representing implied volatility, is at 13.6%. This slight premium of implied over realized volatility is a normal characteristic, reflecting a typical cost for portfolio protection in the equity market.

Focusing on currency and fixed income markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) saw a modest increase to 98.1094 on Monday, up 0.09% from the previous session. However, the dollar has notably weakened by 1.31% over the past month and is down 9.27% over the last 12 months. The DXY is currently trading sideways, near its lowest level since early October, as market participants increasingly price in potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. Investors are factoring in expectations for two more rate cuts in 2026, even though Federal Reserve officials are reportedly split on the path forward, with the majority forecasting only a single additional reduction.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note held steady at approximately 4.14% on Monday. This yield edged lower as holiday-thinned trading continued and the markets continued to anticipate future rate cuts. Despite a slight increase of 0.04 points over the past month, the 10-year yield remains 0.41 points lower than it was a year ago. The sentiment around bond yields continues to be influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve easing in the coming year.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

Good morning, traders. Today's market outlook suggests a predominantly neutral bias across key assets, favoring range-bound strategies as we navigate through identified support and resistance levels. Directional triggers will require confirmed breaches of outer boundaries.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is established around 4,514.20. Key support levels are found at S1 4,447.10 and S2 4,396.20, while resistances are at R1 4,565.10 and R2 4,632.20. The bias remains neutral, making this context suitable for range-trading strategies between 4,447.10 and 4,565.10, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,514.20 pivot. Directional triggers would only emerge on confirmed breakouts above 4,632.20 or below 4,396.20.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude sees its daily pivot around 57.25. Supports are at S1 56.99 and S2 56.64, with resistances at R1 57.60 and R2 57.86. The bias is neutral, indicating a preference for range-trading strategies between 56.99 and 57.60, or market-neutral optional structures centered around the 57.25 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 57.86 or below 56.64 would serve as directional triggers.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot is set around 1.1776. Support levels are S1 1.1762 and S2 1.1744, with resistances at R1 1.1794 and R2 1.1808. A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading strategies within 1.1762 and 1.1794, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1776 pivot. Directional movements would be signaled by confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1808 or below 1.1744.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 has a daily pivot around 25,660.47. Supports are at S1 25,604.24 and S2 25,564.08, while resistances are R1 25,700.63 and R2 25,756.86. The bias is neutral, suggesting range-trading strategies between 25,604.24 and 25,700.63, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,660.47 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 25,756.86 or below 25,564.08 will act as directional triggers.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500's daily pivot is around 6,932.44. Key supports are S1 6,919.10 and S2 6,908.27, with resistances at R1 6,943.27 and R2 6,956.61. With a neutral bias, the market is best suited for range-trading strategies between 6,919.10 and 6,943.27, or market-neutral optional structures centered on the 6,932.44 pivot. Directional triggers are contingent on confirmed breakouts beyond 6,956.61 or below 6,908.27.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX has its daily pivot around 24,319.85. Supports are S1 24,277.68 and S2 24,215.31, while resistances are R1 24,382.22 and R2 24,424.39. The bias is neutral, making range-trading strategies between 24,277.68 and 24,382.22, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,319.85 pivot, the preferred approach. Directional triggers will require confirmed breakouts above 24,424.39 or below 24,215.31.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB daily pivot is around 44,596.00. Key supports are S1 44,468.00 and S2 44,329.00, with resistances at R1 44,735.00 and R2 44,863.00. A neutral bias suggests the current environment is well-suited for range-trading strategies between 44,468.00 and 44,735.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,596.00 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 44,863.00 or below 44,329.00 will serve as directional triggers.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000's daily pivot is around 2,536.16. Supports are at S1 2,525.55 and S2 2,516.74, while resistances are R1 2,544.97 and R2 2,555.58. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading strategies between 2,525.55 and 2,544.97, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,536.16 pivot. Directional triggers would emerge on confirmed breakouts above 2,555.58 or below 2,516.74.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.