Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets - Sunday, December 28, 2025

As the trading week draws to a close and we look ahead to Monday's open, Sunday offers a moment for reflection on recent market dynamics and anticipation of upcoming catalysts. The general market context remains mixed, characterized by equity indices lacking strong directional conviction and ongoing sectoral rotations alongside selective capital flows.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone

While full pre-market activity is paused for the weekend, the underlying sentiment from the previous week suggests a marginally positive bias for US index futures. Specifically, the average bias on US500 and NAS100 futures stands at +0.07, indicating a slight upward lean as we approach the next trading session. Traders are advised to monitor closely for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, as these will be critical tactical indicators in the upcoming week.

Market Volatility & Outlook

Volatility, as reflected by the VIX, remains at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. This suggests that the market is actively pricing in a degree of protection, though without exhibiting clear signs of extreme panic. The prevailing environment encourages a tactical approach, with market participants awaiting new macro catalysts to provide clearer direction. Operative strategies are expected to focus on established support and resistance levels, while remaining alert to any sudden headline news that could trigger swift movements.

Please note: Specific "top movers" are not available on a Sunday, as major global exchanges are closed. This analysis reflects the prevailing sentiment and technical indicators from the preceding week, offering a forward-looking perspective for the upcoming trading sessions.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update

Market sentiment appears subdued as we head into the new trading week, with a largely neutral backdrop across major regions. Investors are poised to digest upcoming economic data and potential policy signals.

Asia

Asian markets are anticipated to open without strong directional conviction, exhibiting contained movements. The focus will primarily be on local news and specific economic data releases from China and Japan. We expect indices such as the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng to reflect this cautious tone, with any significant shifts likely driven by these regional catalysts.

Europe

European futures are currently showing minimal movement, indicating a broadly neutral start to the week for the continent's equity markets. Key indices like the DAX and EuroStoxx 50 are likely to consolidate recent positions as investors await fresh macro or political catalysts to provide clearer direction. The underlying sentiment suggests a 'wait-and-see' approach.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The upcoming macro calendar, while moderate in overall significance, contains several publications that could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange.

• Morning: Attention will be on Euro area confidence and production indicators, alongside various local economic updates, which may offer insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Crucial US data relating to inflation, labor markets, or activity (depending on the specific day) will be closely monitored. These releases are expected to be key drivers for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, should be watched for potential spikes in volatility as markets react to forward guidance or policy nuances.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets Update - December 28, 2025

Below are the key technical levels for major assets, based on yesterday's closing data (December 27, 2025):

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a clearly bullish session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 4,552.70
• Yesterday's Range: 4,518.00 – 4,584.00
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 4,551.57
  • S1: 4,519.13 · S2: 4,485.57
  • R1: 4,585.13 · R2: 4,617.57

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude saw a clearly bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 56.74
• Yesterday's Range: 56.65 – 58.88
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 57.42
  • S1: 55.97 · S2: 55.19
  • R1: 58.20 · R2: 59.65

EUR/USD

EUR/USD traded in a largely sideways session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1785
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1763 – 1.1799
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 1.1783
  • S1: 1.1766 · S2: 1.1746
  • R1: 1.1802 · R2: 1.1819

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a largely sideways session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 25,644.39
• Yesterday's Range: 25,620.32 – 25,716.71
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 25,660.47
  • S1: 25,604.24 · S2: 25,564.08
  • R1: 25,700.63 · R2: 25,756.86

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 saw a largely sideways session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 6,929.94
• Yesterday's Range: 6,921.60 – 6,945.77
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 6,932.44
  • S1: 6,919.10 · S2: 6,908.27
  • R1: 6,943.27 · R2: 6,956.61

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX traded in a largely sideways session, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 24,340.06
• Yesterday's Range: 24,257.47 – 24,362.01
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 24,319.85
  • S1: 24,277.68 · S2: 24,215.31
  • R1: 24,382.22 · R2: 24,424.39

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB experienced a largely sideways session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 44,607.00
• Yesterday's Range: 44,457.00 – 44,724.00
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 44,596.00
  • S1: 44,468.00 · S2: 44,329.00
  • R1: 44,735.00 · R2: 44,863.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 had a moderately bearish session, closing in the middle of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 2,534.35
• Yesterday's Range: 2,527.36 – 2,546.78
• Classic Pivots:
  • P: 2,536.16
  • S1: 2,525.55 · S2: 2,516.74
  • R1: 2,544.97 · R2: 2,555.58

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Overview

As we approach the final trading week of 2025, market participants continue to assess the landscape, with volatility metrics offering insights into sentiment and expectations. The broader macro picture, particularly surrounding the U.S. Dollar and bond yields, remains a key focus.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied & Term Structure

• Equity Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 currently stands at approximately 13.6%. This level is in line with its recent average, suggesting neither excessive fear nor complacency among investors. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100's volatility index (VXN) is around 17.4%, also consistent with its recent historical mean.
• S&P 500 Realized vs. Implied: The implied volatility (VIX at ~13.6%) remains slightly above the 10-day realized volatility for the S&P 500, which is approximately 11.4%. This indicates that the market is still pricing in a modest protection premium for the SPX, a normal characteristic in most market environments.
• Cross-Asset Volatility:
  • Gold (GVZ): Gold volatility is noteworthy, registering around 25.8%. This reading is moderately above its 20-day average, indicating that the market is paying for protection in gold, though without signs of panic.
  • Oil (OVX): Crude oil volatility (OVX) is approximately 32.2%, remaining consistent with its recent average. This suggests a balanced view of future price movements in the energy sector without significant alarm.
  • EUR/USD (EVZ) and DAX (VDAX): Data for EUR/USD and DAX volatility indices were unavailable, possibly due to feed issues or insufficient historical data.

U.S. Dollar Performance

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, closed the week around 101.00. This marks a slight decline from earlier highs in the week, reflecting ongoing investor assessment of global economic data and central bank policy expectations. The dollar saw modest weakening against the Euro, with EUR/USD trading near 1.1000, while it gained slightly against the Japanese Yen, with USD/JPY around 142.00.

Bond Yields

U.S. Treasury yields generally moved lower over the past week, driven by renewed expectations regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the new year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled around 3.87% by Friday's close, down from earlier in the week. The 2-year Treasury yield also declined, closing near 4.30%, while the 30-year Treasury yield finished around 4.02%. This flattening of the yield curve, particularly the movement in the shorter end, suggests that markets are increasingly pricing in an easing monetary policy stance from the Fed in 2024.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday & Multiday Tactical Playbook

As we approach the start of the trading week, our tactical playbook for various key assets indicates a predominantly neutral bias across the board. The current market structure suggests a focus on range-trading strategies or market-neutral optionality around daily pivots, with clear directional triggers identified for potential breakouts. Below is a detailed breakdown of key levels and strategies for the session ahead.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is established at 4,551.57. Key support levels are S1 at 4,519.13 and S2 at 4,485.57. Resistance levels are R1 at 4,585.13 and R2 at 4,617.57. The bias remains neutral, favoring range-trading strategies between 4,519.13 and 4,585.13, or market-neutral option structures centered around the 4,551.57 pivot. Directional triggers are contingent on confirmed breakouts beyond 4,617.57 or below 4,485.57.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude's daily pivot is at 57.42. Support levels are identified at S1: 55.97 and S2: 55.19. Resistance levels stand at R1: 58.20 and R2: 59.65. The bias is currently neutral, suggesting range-bound trading between 55.97 and 58.20, or market-neutral option strategies around the 57.42 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 59.65 or below 55.19 would serve as directional triggers.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot is set at 1.1783. Supports are found at S1: 1.1766 and S2: 1.1746, while resistances are at R1: 1.1802 and R2: 1.1819. With a neutral bias, the pair is best suited for range-trading between 1.1766 and 1.1802, or market-neutral option strategies near the 1.1783 pivot. Directional moves are anticipated only with confirmed breaks above 1.1819 or below 1.1746.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 has a daily pivot at 25,660.47. Key support levels are S1: 25,604.24 and S2: 25,564.08. Resistance levels are R1: 25,700.63 and R2: 25,756.86. The bias is neutral, making it conducive for range-trading within 25,604.24 and 25,700.63, or market-neutral option strategies around the 25,660.47 pivot. Confirmed breakouts beyond 25,756.86 or below 25,564.08 would indicate directional shifts.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500 daily pivot is at 6,932.44. Supports are established at S1: 6,919.10 and S2: 6,908.27. Resistances are noted at R1: 6,943.27 and R2: 6,956.61. A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading between 6,919.10 and 6,943.27, or market-neutral option strategies centered on the 6,932.44 pivot. Directional triggers are set at confirmed breaks above 6,956.61 or below 6,908.27.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX daily pivot is at 24,319.85. Support levels are S1: 24,277.68 and S2: 24,215.31. Resistance levels are R1: 24,382.22 and R2: 24,424.39. The bias is neutral, suggesting range-trading between 24,277.68 and 24,382.22, or market-neutral option strategies around the 24,319.85 pivot. Directional momentum would be triggered by confirmed breakouts beyond 24,424.39 or below 24,215.31.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB daily pivot is positioned at 44,596.00. Supports are found at S1: 44,468.00 and S2: 44,329.00. Resistances are at R1: 44,735.00 and R2: 44,863.00. A neutral bias is in place, making range-trading between 44,468.00 and 44,735.00, or market-neutral option strategies around the 44,596.00 pivot, suitable. Directional triggers are identified at confirmed breakouts above 44,863.00 or below 44,329.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000's daily pivot is 2,536.16. Support levels are S1: 2,525.55 and S2: 2,516.74. Resistance levels are R1: 2,544.97 and R2: 2,555.58. The bias remains neutral, suggesting range-trading between 2,525.55 and 2,544.97, or market-neutral option strategies around the 2,536.16 pivot. Directional shifts are anticipated only with confirmed breaks above 2,555.58 or below 2,516.74.

Disclaimer: This commentary is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative instruments and leverage involves a high level of risk.