Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Cautious Start Ahead of Key Catalysts

Global equity markets enter Saturday, December 27, 2025, with a largely subdued and mixed tone, characterized by ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows. Investors are keenly awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts to provide clearer direction, suggesting a tactical approach to trading as the year-end approaches.

US Index Futures Signal Slight Positive Bias

US index futures are currently reflecting a modest upside bias, with both the US500 and NAS100 indicating an average positive movement of approximately +0.07% in early trading. This marginal uptick suggests a degree of resilience, yet traders remain highly attentive to potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent significant highs and lows. The market appears poised for agile reactions to any sudden shifts in sentiment or headline news that could test these critical technical levels.

Pre-Market Tone: Awaiting Macro Drivers

The overall pre-market tone is one of cautious anticipation. Despite the slight positive lean in futures, there's no strong directional conviction across major indices. This muted activity is largely attributed to the absence of fresh macroeconomic data or significant corporate announcements, leading to a "wait and see" approach from participants. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains elevated compared to recent lows, indicating that while the market is willing to pay for protection, there are no immediate signs of extreme panic. This suggests a healthy level of prudence rather than widespread alarm.

Top Movers: Search for Direction

As the market awaits new catalysts, specific top movers have yet to emerge with significant conviction. The current environment favors tactical operations around established support and resistance levels. With major macro drivers still on the horizon, any sudden headlines or geopolitical developments could quickly ignite price action in individual stocks or sectors. Investors are therefore monitoring for unexpected news that could generate the next set of top performers or laggards.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: A Neutral Start Awaiting Catalysts

Global markets are exhibiting a largely neutral stance as the week draws to a close, with investors treading cautiously and awaiting fresh economic or political catalysts. Futures across major regions are showing limited directional bias, suggesting a period of consolidation following recent movements.

Asia

Asian markets opened without a strong directional lead, characterized by contained movements. Focus remains keenly set on localized news developments and forthcoming economic data from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are anticipated to reflect these regional drivers, with a lack of broader momentum influencing trading sessions.

Europe

European futures are registering only minor movements, painting a neutral picture for the region. Investors appear to be holding back, anticipating new macroeconomic or political catalysts to emerge. Both the DAX and EuroStoxx 50 are currently positioned in a wait-and-see mode, with any significant shifts likely tied to upcoming data releases or policy statements.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macro calendar for today holds moderate relevance, though specific publications have the potential to influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The early part of the day will bring confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local economic updates. These releases will provide insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with key data points on inflation, employment, or overall economic activity (depending on the specific release). These figures are crucial and could significantly impact the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB) will be closely monitored. Additionally, statistics pertaining to financial conditions should be watched for potential spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels for December 27, 2025

As we conclude the trading week, market participants will be keenly observing yesterday's price action and focusing on significant technical levels. The following outlines the classical pivot points, alongside key support and resistance levels, derived from yesterday's closing data for major assets.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,529.10
• Yesterday's Range: 4,502.00 – 4,556.30
• Context: Gold experienced a moderately bullish session, concluding trading in the central portion of its daily range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 4,529.13
  • Support 1 (S1): 4,501.97
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 4,556.27
  • Support 2 (S2): 4,474.83
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 4,583.43

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 56.74
• Yesterday's Range: 56.65 – 58.88
• Context: WTI Crude saw a distinctly bearish session, with prices closing near the lower end of its daily range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 57.42
  • Support 1 (S1): 55.97
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 58.20
  • Support 2 (S2): 55.19
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 59.65

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1785
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1763 – 1.1799
• Context: The EUR/USD pair demonstrated largely lateral movement, ending the session in the middle of its daily range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 1.1783
  • Support 1 (S1): 1.1766
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1802
  • Support 2 (S2): 1.1746
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1819

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,644.39
• Yesterday's Range: 25,620.32 – 25,716.71
• Context: The Nasdaq 100's trading session was predominantly lateral, with the index closing towards the lower part of its daily range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 25,660.47
  • Support 1 (S1): 25,604.24
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 25,700.63
  • Support 2 (S2): 25,564.08
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 25,756.86

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,929.94
• Yesterday's Range: 6,921.60 – 6,945.77
• Context: The S&P 500 showed predominantly lateral movement, concluding the session in the central part of its daily range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 6,932.44
  • Support 1 (S1): 6,919.10
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 6,943.27
  • Support 2 (S2): 6,908.27
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 6,956.61

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,340.06
• Yesterday's Range: 24,257.47 – 24,362.01
• Context: The DAX exhibited a largely lateral session, closing near the upper end of its daily trading range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 24,319.85
  • Support 1 (S1): 24,277.68
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 24,382.22
  • Support 2 (S2): 24,215.31
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 24,424.39

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 44,607.00
• Yesterday's Range: 44,457.00 – 44,724.00
• Context: The FTSE MIB experienced a largely lateral session, ending in the middle of its daily range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 44,596.00
  • Support 1 (S1): 44,468.00
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 44,735.00
  • Support 2 (S2): 44,329.00
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 44,863.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,534.35
• Yesterday's Range: 2,527.36 – 2,546.78
• Context: The Russell 2000 showed a moderately bearish bias yesterday, with its closing price situated in the middle of its daily range.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 2,536.16
  • Support 1 (S1): 2,525.55
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 2,544.97
  • Support 2 (S2): 2,516.74
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 2,555.58

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Remains Subdued, Gold Seeks Protection, While USD Retreats Amidst Rate Cut Expectations

Markets this Saturday morning present a mixed picture, with equity volatility remaining contained while safe-haven assets and currencies show more distinct trends. Focus remains on the Federal Reserve's future policy path, significantly impacting bond yields and the U.S. Dollar.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Term-Structure

Equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500) and VXN (Nasdaq 100), remains largely in line with recent averages, registering at approximately 13.6% and 17.4% respectively. There is no evident excess of fear or complacency in these broader equity indices. This equilibrium is further underscored by the S&P 500's implied volatility, which at 13.6%, is only slightly above its 10-day realized volatility of around 11.4%, indicating a normal premium for protection.

Across other asset classes, gold volatility (GVZ) stands out, moderately above its 20-day average at roughly 25.8%. This suggests the market is actively paying for protection in gold, though without signs of panic. Oil volatility (OVX), meanwhile, is in line with its recent average at approximately 32.2%, also showing no excessive sentiment.

USD Performance

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) registered around 98.0547 on December 26, 2025, marking a marginal increase of 0.08% from the previous session. However, the greenback has experienced a broader downtrend, weakening by 1.55% over the past month and declining by 9.21% over the last 12 months. This prolonged pressure places the dollar on track for its weakest annual performance since 2017.

Underlying this weakness are market expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with current pricing implying two such reductions. This sentiment persists despite robust third-quarter GDP growth, which has challenged some assumptions about a slowing economy. Divergent views within the Federal Reserve, with most officials projecting only one rate reduction, add to the currency's uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions and a strengthening Japanese Yen have also contributed to the downward pressure on the dollar.

Bond Yields

U.S. Treasury yields have shown minor movements. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note yielded 4.14% on December 26, 2025, reflecting a modest 0.01 percentage point increase from the prior session. Despite this uptick, the yield remains 0.49 points lower than a year ago. Over the past month, the 10-year yield has edged up by 0.15 points, but it is still below its long-term average of 4.25%.

Shorter-term, the 2-year note closed at 3.48% on December 19, 2025. On the longer end of the curve, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.83% on December 26, 2025. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 continue to influence bond market sentiment, with some analysts forecasting the 10-year yield to decline to 3.89% within the next 12 months.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for the Upcoming Session

As we head into the next trading session, a generally neutral bias is observed across several key markets, suggesting a preference for range-bound strategies until significant directional triggers emerge. Below is a detailed tactical playbook with intraday and multiday perspectives.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold maintains a Neutral Bias with a daily pivot at 4,529.13. Key support levels are S1 at 4,501.97 and S2 at 4,474.83, while resistances are found at R1 4,556.27 and R2 4,583.43. The current environment favors range-trading strategies between 4,501.97 and 4,556.27, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,529.13 pivot. Directional triggers would only emerge on confirmed breakouts above 4,583.43 or below 4,474.83.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude also shows a Neutral Bias, with its daily pivot positioned at 57.42. Support levels are identified at S1 55.97 and S2 55.19, while resistance levels are at R1 58.20 and R2 59.65. The context is suitable for range-trading strategies between 55.97 and 58.20, or market-neutral optional structures around the 57.42 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 59.65 or below 55.19 would serve as directional triggers.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD pair operates under a Neutral Bias, with a daily pivot at 1.1783. Support is seen at S1 1.1766 and S2 1.1746, and resistance at R1 1.1802 and R2 1.1819. This suggests a suitable environment for range-trading strategies within the 1.1766 to 1.1802 band, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1783 pivot. Directional movements are anticipated only on confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1819 or below 1.1746.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 presents a Neutral Bias with a daily pivot at 25,660.47. Key support levels are S1 25,604.24 and S2 25,564.08, while resistances are R1 25,700.63 and R2 25,756.86. The prevailing context favors range-trading strategies between 25,604.24 and 25,700.63, or market-neutral optional structures centered around the 25,660.47 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers will be observed only upon a breakout above 25,756.86 or below 25,564.08.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500 also exhibits a Neutral Bias, with its daily pivot at 6,932.44. Support levels are at S1 6,919.10 and S2 6,908.27, with resistances at R1 6,943.27 and R2 6,956.61. This indicates a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 6,919.10 and 6,943.27, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,932.44 pivot. Directional shifts are expected only on confirmed breakouts beyond 6,956.61 or below 6,908.27.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX shows a Neutral Bias, with a daily pivot point at 24,319.85. Support levels are defined at S1 24,277.68 and S2 24,215.31, while resistance levels are at R1 24,382.22 and R2 24,424.39. The current scenario suggests favoring range-trading strategies between 24,277.68 and 24,382.22, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,319.85 pivot. Directional triggers will require confirmed breakouts above 24,424.39 or below 24,215.31.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB operates with a Neutral Bias, with its daily pivot located at 44,596.00. Support levels are identified at S1 44,468.00 and S2 44,329.00, and resistances at R1 44,735.00 and R2 44,863.00. The market context is best suited for range-trading strategies between 44,468.00 and 44,735.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,596.00 pivot. Directional triggers are expected only on confirmed breakouts above 44,863.00 or below 44,329.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 also presents a Neutral Bias, with a daily pivot at 2,536.16. Support levels are noted at S1 2,525.55 and S2 2,516.74, while resistances are at R1 2,544.97 and R2 2,555.58. The current environment is conducive to range-trading strategies between 2,525.55 and 2,544.97, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,536.16 pivot. Directional triggers would require confirmed breakouts above 2,555.58 or below 2,516.74.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation of public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data considered reliable but not guaranteed; operating with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.