Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets Update - Friday, December 26, 2025

Global equity markets are characterized by a mixed tone this morning, with no strong directional bias evident in major indices. We continue to observe sector rotations and selective capital flows as investors position themselves ahead of new macroeconomic catalysts. Today is Friday, and market participants are adopting a more tactical approach.

US Index Futures:

US equity index futures, including the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100), are showing a modest positive bias of approximately +0.07% in pre-market trading. This slight upward tilt suggests a cautious optimism, though traders are keenly monitoring for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows. The German DAX (GER30) futures also reflect this subtle upward bias, aligning with the broader equity sentiment.

Pre-Market Tone & Volatility:

The overall pre-market tone is one of anticipation rather than strong conviction. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains at elevated levels compared to recent lows. This indicates that the market is willing to pay for protection, signaling underlying caution among investors. However, there are no immediate signs of extreme panic, suggesting a measured approach to risk management rather than a broad flight to safety.

FX & Commodities Snapshot:

• FX: EURUSD maintains a neutral bias. The currency pair continues to be driven by the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside incoming inflation and labor market data.
• Commodities: Both Gold and WTI crude oil exhibit a neutral bias. Flows in these markets are influenced by a combination of macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Tactical Outlook & Top Movers:

Today's trading environment emphasizes tactical operations, with a focus on key support and resistance levels. Traders are on high alert for any sudden headline news that could disrupt current sentiment. While specific top movers are yet to fully materialize in pre-market, attention will likely turn to sectors and individual stocks that react to the evolving macro narrative and any unexpected announcements.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets

As we head into the final trading day of the week, market sentiment remains largely cautious across major global indices. Investors are digesting recent developments and looking for fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets exhibited a lack of strong directional conviction overnight, with movements largely contained. The focus remains on local news developments and key economic data from China and Japan. Major indices like the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are trading with modest movements as participants await more definitive signals from the region.

Europe

European futures are showing little discernible movement this morning, painting a neutral picture for the opening. The DAX and EuroStoxx 50 futures suggest a cautious start as investors are currently awaiting new macro-economic or political catalysts to provide clearer direction for the region's equities.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's economic calendar presents moderate relevance, yet some publications could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets:

• Morning: Attention will be on confidence indicators and production data from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These releases could offer insights into the health of the European economy.
• Afternoon: Key data from the United States, including updates on inflation, employment, or economic activity (depending on the specific day's releases), will be crucial. These figures are particularly important for the EURUSD currency pair and US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, coupled with statistics on financial conditions, should be closely monitored for potential spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (December 26, 2025)

Here's a look at the key technical levels for major assets, based on yesterday's closing data.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a moderately bullish session yesterday, closing at 4,540.90, positioned in the middle of its daily range of 4,518.00 – 4,561.60. Today's crucial intraday levels are centered around the Pivot at 4,540.17, with initial support (S1) at 4,518.73 and first resistance (R1) at 4,562.33.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude saw a largely lateral session, concluding at 58.55, in the upper portion of its daily range spanning 58.31 – 58.59. For today's trading, the Pivot is identified at 58.48. Traders will look to initial support (S1) at 58.38 and first resistance (R1) at 58.66.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways yesterday, closing at 1.1774, at the lower end of its 1.1774 – 1.1797 range. The central Pivot for today is established at 1.1782, with key levels including initial support (S1) at 1.1767 and first resistance (R1) at 1.1789.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a largely lateral session, closing strongly at 25,656.15 within the upper part of its daily range of 25,556.85 – 25,665.28. Key technical points for today include the Pivot at 25,626.09, first support (S1) at 25,586.91, and first resistance (R1) at 25,695.34.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500's session yesterday was predominantly lateral, with a close at 6,932.05, near the top of its 6,904.91 – 6,937.32 range. Today's focus will be on the Pivot at 6,924.76. Traders should observe initial support (S1) at 6,912.20 and first resistance (R1) at 6,944.61.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX traded largely sideways yesterday, closing at 24,340.06, towards the upper end of its daily range of 24,257.47 – 24,362.01. For today, the central Pivot stands at 24,319.85, with immediate support (S1) at 24,277.68 and resistance (R1) at 24,382.22.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB saw a largely lateral session, closing at 44,607.00, in the middle of its 44,457.00 – 44,724.00 daily range. Today's key technical levels include the Pivot at 44,596.00, with initial support (S1) at 44,468.00 and first resistance (R1) at 44,735.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 concluded a largely lateral session yesterday at 2,548.08, closing in the upper part of its 2,535.13 – 2,549.96 range. The Pivot for today's trading is set at 2,544.39, with crucial levels being first support (S1) at 2,538.82 and first resistance (R1) at 2,553.65.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Remains Subdued, Eyes on USD and Yields

Volatility metrics across major asset classes remain largely contained as of Friday morning, indicating a relatively calm market environment. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 stands at approximately 13.5%, notably below its 20-day average. This subdued level of implied volatility, combined with a slight premium over 10-day realized volatility (~11.5%), suggests a normal protection premium on the S&P 500 and a potentially favorable backdrop for controlled carry or short volatility strategies.

Cross-asset volatility gauges show a similar picture of stability. The VXN (Nasdaq 100 volatility) is around 17.2%, while GVZ (Gold volatility) is at approximately 23.8%, and OVX (Oil volatility) is at roughly 31.7%. All these measures are broadly in line with their recent averages, indicating no evident excesses of either fear or complacency across tech, commodities, or precious metals.

Focus now shifts to the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields, which continue to be key drivers of market sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen varied performance recently, navigating expectations around monetary policy and global economic data. As of Friday, the dollar has shown some resilience against major currencies.

US Treasury yields are also a critical area of market attention. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, has recently moved to 4.25% from 4.22% Thursday, reflecting ongoing adjustments to inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's rate path. Market participants are closely monitoring these movements, as shifts in bond yields can have significant implications for equity valuations, corporate earnings, and overall economic growth prospects.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Friday

Today, Friday, marks a trading session where several key assets are exhibiting a neutral bias, indicating a preference for range-bound strategies. Traders should pay close attention to established support and resistance levels for potential breakout opportunities.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is established in the 4,540.13 area. Key support levels are identified at S1 4,518.67 and S2 4,496.53. Conversely, resistance levels are found at R1 4,562.27 and R2 4,583.73. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 4,518.67 and 4,562.27, or market-neutral optional structures centered around the 4,540.13 pivot. Directional triggers would only be activated on confirmed breakouts above 4,583.73 or below 4,496.53.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude's daily pivot is located in the 58.48 area. Support levels are marked at S1 58.38 and S2 58.20, while resistance levels are at R1 58.66 and R2 58.76. The bias is neutral, favouring range-trading strategies within the 58.38 and 58.66 band, or market-neutral optional structures around the 58.48 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 58.76 or below 58.20 would serve as directional triggers.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot is set at 1.1782. Support levels are at S1 1.1767 and S2 1.1760, with resistance levels at R1 1.1789 and R2 1.1804. A neutral bias prevails, pointing towards range-trading between 1.1767 and 1.1789, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 1.1782 pivot. Directional movements are anticipated only on confirmed breaches above 1.1804 or below 1.1760.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

Nasdaq 100's daily pivot is at 25,626.09. Support is seen at S1 25,586.91 and S2 25,517.66, with resistance at R1 25,695.34 and R2 25,734.52. The bias is neutral, making it suitable for range-trading within 25,586.91 and 25,695.34, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,626.09 pivot. Confirmed breakouts beyond 25,734.52 or below 25,517.66 would signal directional shifts.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500 establishes its daily pivot at 6,924.76. Support levels are found at S1 6,912.20 and S2 6,892.35. Resistance levels are at R1 6,944.61 and R2 6,957.17. With a neutral bias, the market is poised for range-trading between 6,912.20 and 6,944.61, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,924.76 pivot. Directional triggers are set for confirmed movements above 6,957.17 or below 6,892.35.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

DAX's daily pivot is positioned at 24,319.85. Support is noted at S1 24,277.68 and S2 24,215.31, while resistance stands at R1 24,382.22 and R2 24,424.39. A neutral bias suggests an environment conducive to range-trading between 24,277.68 and 24,382.22, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,319.85 pivot. Directional triggers would occur on confirmed breakouts above 24,424.39 or below 24,215.31.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB daily pivot is at 44,596.00. Key support levels are S1 44,468.00 and S2 44,329.00, with resistance levels at R1 44,735.00 and R2 44,863.00. A neutral bias is in play, favoring range-trading between 44,468.00 and 44,735.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,596.00 pivot. Directional triggers are expected only on confirmed breakouts above 44,863.00 or below 44,329.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

Russell 2000's daily pivot is located at 2,544.39. Support levels are identified at S1 2,538.82 and S2 2,529.56, with resistance at R1 2,553.65 and R2 2,559.22. The prevailing neutral bias makes this context suitable for range-trading between 2,538.82 and 2,553.65, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,544.39 pivot. Directional triggers are set for confirmed breakouts above 2,559.22 or below 2,529.56.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.