Morning Markets: Technical Levels, Volatility & Playbook

Details: By AlgoTrend; Category: Morning Star; 25 December 2025; Hits: 73

Morning Markets – 25 December 2025

Morning Note 25 December 2025 | 08:45 CET

Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Awaiting Fresh Catalysts Amidst Mixed Sentiment

The final trading week of the year continues to present a mixed picture across global equity markets this Thursday. Overall sentiment remains indecisive, characterized by ongoing sector rotations and highly selective capital flows. Investors are largely positioned defensively, awaiting new macro catalysts to provide clearer direction.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone:

US index futures are showing a marginally positive bias in pre-market trading, with the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) futures reflecting a slight upward tilt of approximately +0.07. This modest strength suggests a cautious opening. The key focus for traders will be on technical levels, particularly watching for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows. Given the broader absence of strong directional momentum, price action around these critical support and resistance levels will be paramount in determining intra-day trends.

Volatility Landscape:

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) currently sits at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. This indicates that the market is willing to pay for protection, reflecting underlying uncertainty. However, it's important to note that while elevated, the VIX is not signaling extreme panic, suggesting a measured approach to risk rather than a flight to safety.

Tactical Outlook & Top Movers:

Today's trading environment is expected to remain highly tactical, with market participants closely monitoring support and resistance levels. The absence of major scheduled economic releases means that the market is particularly sensitive to any sudden headlines or geopolitical developments. Given the context of sector rotations and selective flows, attention will be on individual stocks and sectors demonstrating distinct strength or weakness, although broad-based "top movers" are yet to materialize in a significant fashion in this subdued pre-market. Traders should be prepared for potential quick shifts in momentum triggered by unexpected news flow.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Global Indecision as Investors Await Fresh Catalysts

Global markets are showing a lack of strong directional conviction this Thursday morning, with investors largely awaiting fresh macroeconomic and political catalysts to drive sentiment. Futures across major regions are mixed, suggesting a period of consolidation after recent movements.

Asia

Asian markets are trading without strong direction today, displaying contained movements as participants focus on local news and key data from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng are reflecting this cautious stance, with activity largely driven by domestic developments rather than broad regional trends.

Europe

European futures remain largely subdued, painting a neutral picture as the continent's markets await new macroeconomic or political drivers. Indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx are indicative of this holding pattern, with investors exercising caution ahead of fresh insights.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for today, while of moderate significance, features several publications that could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets:

Morning: Investors will be watching for confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, along with other local updates, which could provide initial direction for European trading.
Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States, with key data releases on inflation, labor, or activity (depending on the specific day's schedule). These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
Evening: Any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB), alongside statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels

Good morning and welcome to our technical analysis for today's trading session. Below are the key technical levels, including pivot points, first support (S1), and first resistance (R1), calculated from yesterday's closing data, updated as of December 25, 2025. Today is Thursday, December 25, 2025.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,480.60, following a largely sideways session where prices ranged between 4,468.40 and 4,503.40. The precious metal concluded the day in the central part of its daily range.

Classic Pivot (P): 4,484.13
First Support (S1): 4,464.87
First Resistance (R1): 4,499.87

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude settled yesterday at 58.35, experiencing a mostly lateral trading day within a range of 58.13 to 58.75. The close was observed near the central part of the daily trading range.

Classic Pivot (P): 58.41
First Support (S1): 58.07
First Resistance (R1): 58.69

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed yesterday at 1.1786. The session was largely sideways, with the pair trading between 1.1772 and 1.1798, ending near the central part of its daily range.

Classic Pivot (P): 1.1785
First Support (S1): 1.1772
First Resistance (R1): 1.1798

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 25,656.15, after a largely sideways session where it traded between 25,556.85 and 25,665.28. Notably, the index concluded the day in the upper portion of its daily range.

Classic Pivot (P): 25,626.09
First Support (S1): 25,586.91
First Resistance (R1): 25,695.34

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 finished yesterday at 6,932.05. The session was largely lateral, with the index trading within the range of 6,904.91 to 6,937.32, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

Classic Pivot (P): 6,924.76
First Support (S1): 6,912.20
First Resistance (R1): 6,944.61

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed yesterday at 24,340.06. It experienced a largely sideways session, trading between 24,257.47 and 24,362.01, with the closing price in the upper part of its daily range.

Classic Pivot (P): 24,319.85
First Support (S1): 24,277.68
First Resistance (R1): 24,382.22

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded yesterday at 44,607.00. The index saw a largely sideways session, ranging from 44,457.00 to 44,724.00, and closed in the central part of its daily range.

Classic Pivot (P): 44,596.00
First Support (S1): 44,468.00
First Resistance (R1): 44,735.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed yesterday at 2,548.08, following a largely sideways session that saw it trade between 2,535.13 and 2,549.96. The index finished the day in the upper portion of its daily range.

Classic Pivot (P): 2,544.39
First Support (S1): 2,538.82
First Resistance (R1): 2,553.65

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Remains Subdued, Focus Shifts to USD and Yields

As markets head into Thursday, a subdued volatility environment continues to provide a backdrop for risk assets, while attention also turns to recent movements in the U.S. Dollar and bond yields.

Volatility Insights:

The VIX (S&P 500) is currently around 13.5%. This level is below its 20-day average, indicating contained volatility and a potentially favorable environment for controlled carry and short volatility strategies.
Looking across other asset classes, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) stands at approximately 17.2%, in line with its recent average. Similarly, GVZ (Gold) at ~23.8% and OVX (Oil) at ~31.7% are also in line with their recent averages. These levels suggest no evident excesses of fear or complacency across these key markets.
When comparing Realized vs Implied volatility for the S&P 500, the 10-day realized volatility is around 11.5%, while the VIX (implied volatility) is at ~13.5%. This slight premium of implied over realized volatility is a normal characteristic, reflecting a typical protection premium on the SPX.

USD Performance:

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has shown mixed performance recently, oscillating within a tight range as investors digest incoming economic data and monetary policy expectations. The dollar's trajectory remains a key factor for global trade and corporate earnings, with its strength or weakness impacting commodity prices and international capital flows.
Recent movements suggest a cautious sentiment, with no strong directional bias emerging.

Bond Yields:

U.S. Treasury yields have largely stabilized after some recent fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering around 4.15%, reflecting market expectations for inflation and future interest rate policy.
Shorter-dated yields, such as the 2-year Treasury, are also holding firm, indicating a relatively stable outlook for the Federal Reserve's path. Investors continue to monitor economic indicators for signals that could shift the current yield curve dynamics.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

If it doesn’t load, open in a new tab: Option Wall

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday & Multiday Tactical Playbook - Thursday

As we navigate Thursday's trading session, the overarching sentiment across major asset classes remains largely neutral, signaling a day potentially ripe for range-trading strategies. Our tactical playbook highlights key intraday pivots, support, and resistance levels, along with directional triggers for discerning market participants.