Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: December 24, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to our Wednesday market update. The overarching market sentiment remains mixed as we approach the end of the year, characterized by an absence of strong directional conviction across major equity indices. Instead, we observe ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows, indicating a nuanced environment where investors are picking their spots.

US Index Futures and Pre-Market Tone

In the pre-market session, US index futures are showing a modest positive bias. Specifically, both the US500 and NAS100 are indicating an uptick, alongside the GER30, with a collective average bias of approximately +0.07%. This marginal upward movement suggests a cautious opening. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as these levels could dictate intraday direction given the current lack of strong momentum.

Key Market Drivers and Themes

• FX Markets: The EURUSD pair maintains a neutral bias. Its trajectory continues to be heavily influenced by the differential in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside incoming inflation and labor market data from both regions.
• Commodities: Both gold and WTI crude oil are exhibiting a neutral bias this morning. Price action in these markets is reflecting a combination of broader macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate expectations and global growth outlooks, as well as specific commodity-related news flows.
• Volatility: The VIX, a key gauge of market fear, remains at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. This indicates that the market is currently pricing in and willing to pay for protection, though it stops short of signaling extreme panic, suggesting a cautious but not distressed sentiment.

Tactical Focus for the Day

Today's trading session is likely to see markets awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts. In this environment, a more tactical approach is warranted. Traders are advised to focus on established support and resistance levels for potential entry and exit points. Furthermore, close attention should be paid to any sudden headline news that could trigger swift market reactions, especially given the current backdrop of selective flows and cautious positioning.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Christmas Eve Sees Subdued Trading and Light Macro Calendar

Global markets are experiencing subdued activity this Wednesday, December 24, 2025, as investors head into the Christmas holiday with many exchanges operating on shortened schedules. The overall sentiment remains largely neutral, with a focus on local news and a light macroeconomic calendar.

Asia

Asian markets presented a mixed performance today, characterized by contained movements and reduced trading volumes ahead of Christmas Eve. Japan's Nikkei 225 was largely unchanged, with some reports indicating a marginal dip of 0.1% to 50,344.10 or a slight gain of 0.14%, reflecting a slowdown in momentum after a recent rally. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, however, managed to edge higher, closing up 0.2% at 25,818.93 points in a half-day trading session. This modest gain erased the previous day's losses. Overall, investor activity remained subdued across the region.

Europe

European futures opened with little significant movement, pointing to a neutral trading session as investors await fresh macro or political catalysts. Germany's DAX Index, which closed 0.2% higher at 24,337 on Tuesday, showed slight gains this morning, reaching around 24,340.07 points. The Euro Stoxx 50 index also showed limited directional strength. On Tuesday, it closed marginally higher, gaining 0.14% to 5752 points. European market cues this morning indicate mixed sentiment for major indices. Many European exchanges are expected to have shortened trading hours for Christmas Eve.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for Wednesday is of moderate significance, though some publications could still influence market sentiment on indices and foreign exchange. This morning's session sees the release of confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates. Notably, minutes from the Bank of Japan's October policy meeting are due for release in Asia, though they are largely considered backward-looking as they pre-date December's more impactful rate hike.

Looking ahead, the afternoon would typically bring key U.S. data on inflation, labor, or activity, which are crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and U.S. indices. However, U.S. markets are scheduled for an early close today at 1:00 PM ET in observance of Christmas Eve. Consequently, liquidity is anticipated to be lower than usual, with increased potential for volatility stemming from reduced trading volumes. Evening hours may feature speeches from Federal Reserve or European Central Bank members, along with financial condition statistics, which should be monitored for any potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (December 24, 2025)

Good morning. As markets open on this Wednesday, December 24, 2025, we provide an overview of key technical levels for major assets, calculated based on yesterday's closing data. These levels offer crucial insights into potential support and resistance points for today's trading session.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a moderately bullish session yesterday, closing in the middle of its daily range at 4,517.50. The metal traded within a range of 4,496.50 to 4,555.10.

• Pivot (P): 4,523.03
• Support 1 (S1): 4,490.97
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,549.57
• Support 2 (S2): 4,464.43
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,581.63

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude saw a largely sideways session, closing at 58.58, near the upper end of its daily range (58.22 – 58.63).

• Pivot (P): 58.48
• Support 1 (S1): 58.32
• Resistance 1 (R1): 58.73
• Support 2 (S2): 58.07
• Resistance 2 (R2): 58.89

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways yesterday, closing at 1.1792, towards the lower end of its daily range (1.1790 – 1.1812).

• Pivot (P): 1.1798
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1784
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1806
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1776
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1820

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 25,587.83 following a predominantly lateral session, settling near the upper boundary of its daily range (25,403.26 – 25,590.03).

• Pivot (P): 25,527.04
• Support 1 (S1): 25,464.05
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,650.82
• Support 2 (S2): 25,340.27
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,713.81

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 also experienced a largely sideways session, concluding at 6,909.79, at the higher end of its range (6,868.81 – 6,910.88).

• Pivot (P): 6,896.49
• Support 1 (S1): 6,882.11
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,924.18
• Support 2 (S2): 6,854.42
• Resistance 2 (R2): 6,938.56

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX traded broadly sideways yesterday, closing at 24,340.06, near the top of its daily range (24,257.47 – 24,362.01).

• Pivot (P): 24,319.85
• Support 1 (S1): 24,277.68
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,382.22
• Support 2 (S2): 24,215.31
• Resistance 2 (R2): 24,424.39

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded a largely lateral session at 44,607.00, in the central part of its daily range (44,457.00 – 44,724.00).

• Pivot (P): 44,596.00
• Support 1 (S1): 44,468.00
• Resistance 1 (R1): 44,735.00
• Support 2 (S2): 44,329.00
• Resistance 2 (R2): 44,863.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 experienced a moderately bearish session, closing at 2,541.12, at the lower end of its daily range (2,537.94 – 2,553.20).

• Pivot (P): 2,544.09
• Support 1 (S1): 2,534.97
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,550.23
• Support 2 (S2): 2,528.83
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,559.35

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Remains Subdued, Focus Shifts to Year-End Dynamics

Good morning, and welcome to our final market update before the Christmas holiday. As we approach the close of 2025, markets are displaying a relatively calm demeanor, particularly in volatility metrics, while attention subtly shifts towards currency and fixed income movements.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied & Cross-Asset Review

Implied volatility across major asset classes remains well within recent averages, suggesting a lack of pronounced fear or complacency heading into the holiday period. The VIX (S&P 500) currently hovers around 14.0%, closely aligning with its recent mean. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) stands at approximately 17.5%, also in line with its historical averages. This indicates that equity markets are not signaling any immediate, significant shifts in sentiment.

A similar picture emerges in commodities: Gold volatility (GVZ) is at about 24.5%, and Oil volatility (OVX) is around 33.0%, both consistent with their recent historical ranges. This broad stability in implied volatility metrics suggests that while underlying currents may be at play, market participants are not pricing in extreme moves in the immediate future.

Looking at the S&P 500 specifically, the implied volatility (VIX at ~14.0%) is slightly above the 10-day realized volatility of approximately 11.8%. This modest premium for implied volatility over realized volatility is a normal market characteristic, reflecting a standard cost for protection on the S&P 500 rather than any elevated concern.

USD and Bond Yields

The U.S. Dollar (USD) has shown a mixed performance heading into the final days of the year. Against a basket of major currencies, the dollar index has generally traded within a tight range, influenced by shifting expectations for monetary policy and varying economic data releases globally. Recent data indicates the dollar has seen some slight weakening against key peers as investors digest the latest inflation figures and central bank commentary.

In the fixed income market, U.S. Treasury yields have largely remained stable, with a slight downward bias observed across the curve in recent sessions. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has moved modestly, reflecting cautious optimism regarding a soft landing for the economy and ongoing evaluations of future interest rate trajectories. Shorter-term yields have also seen minor fluctuations, with the overall bond market pricing in a measured approach from the Federal Reserve. The stability in bond yields, coupled with subdued equity volatility, suggests a market comfortable with current economic projections, though always watchful for new data points.

As we head into the quiet holiday period, market participants will be closely monitoring any new economic indicators and geopolitical developments that could influence the start of the new year.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Wednesday

Today's trading session presents a neutral bias across several key assets, suggesting a context more suitable for range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures. Traders should closely monitor the defined support and resistance levels for potential directional triggers.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,523.03
• Key Levels: Support 1 (S1) at 4,490.97, Support 2 (S2) at 4,464.43. Resistance 1 (R1) at 4,549.57, Resistance 2 (R2) at 4,581.63.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 4,490.97 and 4,549.57, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,523.03 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 4,581.63 or below 4,464.43.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 58.48
• Key Levels: S1 at 58.32, S2 at 58.07. R1 at 58.73, R2 at 58.89.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 58.32 and 58.73, or market-neutral optional structures around the 58.48 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 58.89 or below 58.07.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1798
• Key Levels: S1 at 1.1783, S2 at 1.1775. R1 at 1.1805, R2 at 1.1820.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 1.1783 and 1.1805, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1798 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 1.1820 or below 1.1775.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,527.04
• Key Levels: S1 at 25,464.05, S2 at 25,340.27. R1 at 25,650.82, R2 at 25,713.81.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 25,464.05 and 25,650.82, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,527.04 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 25,713.81 or below 25,340.27.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,896.49
• Key Levels: S1 at 6,882.11, S2 at 6,854.42. R1 at 6,924.18, R2 at 6,938.56.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 6,882.11 and 6,924.18, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,896.49 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 6,938.56 or below 6,854.42.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,319.85
• Key Levels: S1 at 24,277.68, S2 at 24,215.31. R1 at 24,382.22, R2 at 24,424.39.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 24,277.68 and 24,382.22, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,319.85 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 24,424.39 or below 24,215.31.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,596.00
• Key Levels: S1 at 44,468.00, S2 at 44,329.00. R1 at 44,735.00, R2 at 44,863.00.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 44,468.00 and 44,735.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,596.00 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 44,863.00 or below 44,329.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,544.09
• Key Levels: S1 at 2,534.97, S2 at 2,528.83. R1 at 2,550.23, R2 at 2,559.35.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Range-trading between 2,534.97 and 2,550.23, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,544.09 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 2,559.35 or below 2,528.83.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative instruments and leverage involves a high level of risk.