Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: December 23, 2025

Global financial markets are entering Tuesday with a mixed sentiment, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across equity indices and notable sectoral rotations alongside selective capital flows. Investors are keenly awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts to provide clearer direction.

Equity Markets:

• US index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are indicating a modest positive bias of approximately +0.07% in pre-market trading.
• Attention remains fixed on potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as market participants gauge underlying momentum.
• The overall pre-market tone is one of cautious optimism, with a subdued but slightly upward tilt, reflecting the broader mixed sentiment but with a slight leaning towards growth-oriented assets.

FX Markets:

• The EURUSD pair maintains a neutral bias.
• Currency movements continue to be primarily influenced by the differential in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, coupled with incoming inflation and labor market data.

Commodities:

• Both gold and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil are exhibiting neutral biases.
• Commodity flows are currently a reflection of both broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility:

• The VIX, a key measure of market volatility, remains at elevated levels compared to its recent lows.
• This suggests that while the market is paying for protection, there are no immediate signs of extreme panic, indicating a state of heightened awareness rather than distress.

Tactical Focus & Pre-Market Tone:

• Today's tactical focus remains on identifying new macroeconomic catalysts, which are currently elusive.
• Market participants are advised to adopt a more tactical approach, focusing on support and resistance levels.
• The pre-market tone is influenced by a cautious optimism, with index futures showing a slight uptick. However, the absence of strong conviction suggests that early trading will be sensitive to any sudden headlines or data releases.
• Individual stock movements and potential "top movers" in the pre-market are likely to emerge from specific sector rotations and selective flows, rather than broad-based market themes, as investors navigate the mixed environment for early opportunities.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update - Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Global markets open this Tuesday with a largely subdued tone, as investors digest recent movements and await fresh catalysts. The lack of strong directional conviction is evident across major regions, pointing to a day potentially driven by specific data releases and local news flow.

Asia

Asian markets are trading without strong directional impetus this morning. Movements remain contained, with investor attention primarily focused on local news and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. We anticipate this sentiment to influence major indices such as the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng, which are currently reflecting a wait-and-see approach as participants seek clearer signals.

Europe

European futures indicate a largely unmoved open, suggesting a neutral picture for now. Major indices, including the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50, are likely to trade within established ranges as investors await new macro or political catalysts to drive sentiment. The current environment suggests a cautious approach until fresh fundamental drivers emerge.

United States

US futures are mixed and lack a clear direction, indicating a market in a phase of consolidation following the movements observed in recent trading sessions.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macro calendar holds moderate relevance, though certain publications could certainly influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates that could provide granular insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts to the United States with key data releases concerning inflation, labor, or activity, depending on the specific publication. These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: We will be monitoring any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions should be closely watched for potential spikes in volatility across markets.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - December 23, 2025

Here's a look at key technical levels for major assets, calculated based on yesterday's closing data (December 22, 2025).

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,518.00, trading within a range of 4,479.80 – 4,530.80. The session was clearly bullish, with the precious metal closing in the upper part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivots: P 4,509.53
• Support Levels: S1 4,488.27 · S2 4,458.53
• Resistance Levels: R1 4,539.27 · R2 4,560.53

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude closed at 57.88, having traded between 57.76 – 57.99. Yesterday's session was largely sideways, with crude closing in the central part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivots: P 57.88
• Support Levels: S1 57.76 · S2 57.65
• Resistance Levels: R1 57.99 · R2 58.11

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair concluded yesterday at 1.1777, within a range of 1.1763 – 1.1783. It experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of its daily trading range.

• Classic Pivots: P 1.1774
• Support Levels: S1 1.1766 · S2 1.1755
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1785 · R2 1.1794

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 25,461.70, after fluctuating between 25,401.59 – 25,554.03. The index saw a largely sideways session, ending in the central part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivots: P 25,472.44
• Support Levels: S1 25,390.85 · S2 25,320.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,543.29 · R2 25,624.88

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed at 6,878.49, with an intraday range of 6,855.74 – 6,882.03. The index showed a moderately bullish trend, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivots: P 6,872.09
• Support Levels: S1 6,862.14 · S2 6,845.80
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,888.43 · R2 6,898.38

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed yesterday at 24,283.97, with a daily range of 24,203.37 – 24,356.11. The session was largely lateral, with the index closing in the central part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivots: P 24,281.15
• Support Levels: S1 24,206.19 · S2 24,128.41
• Resistance Levels: R1 24,358.93 · R2 24,433.89

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded the day at 44,594.00, trading within 44,501.00 – 44,798.00. The session was largely sideways, with the index closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivots: P 44,631.00
• Support Levels: S1 44,464.00 · S2 44,334.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 44,761.00 · R2 44,928.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,558.78, with a daily range of 2,538.80 – 2,572.90. It experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the central part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivots: P 2,556.83
• Support Levels: S1 2,540.75 · S2 2,522.73
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,574.85 · R2 2,590.93

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Update - Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to today's market update, focusing on volatility, currency movements, and bond yields.

Volatility Overview

Market participants are observing a generally stable volatility landscape across key assets, with implied volatility measures remaining largely in line with recent averages. The VIX (S&P 500) stands at approximately 14.1%, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency in the broader market. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is noted around 17.9%, also aligning with its recent mean. This indicates a lack of extreme directional bias or panic among tech-focused investors.

Cross-asset volatility metrics also show a similar trend. Gold's volatility, as measured by GVZ, is approximately 23.8%, consistent with its recent averages. In the commodities space, OVX (Oil volatility) is around 33.0%, again without significant deviation from its recent historical patterns. This broad alignment suggests a market that is not currently pricing in significant, unforeseen shocks.

An interesting point for the S&P 500 (SPX) is the relationship between realized and implied volatility. While the 10-day realized volatility is approximately 11.7%, the VIX (implied volatility) is slightly higher at 14.1%. This differential is considered a normal protection premium on the SPX, indicating that options traders are demanding a slight buffer above actual recent price movements, likely reflecting standard risk-aversion rather than heightened concern.

Currency Markets: Focus on USD

The U.S. Dollar is exhibiting a steady performance this morning, with the DXY index trading around 103.05. This follows a period of consolidation, as market participants weigh recent economic data against anticipated Federal Reserve policy. The dollar has found some support amidst ongoing discussions about global growth differentials and divergent central bank paths. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming inflation data for further clues on the Fed's stance, which could significantly influence the dollar's trajectory into the new year.

Fixed Income: Bond Yields

In the fixed income arena, sovereign bond yields are showing minor fluctuations as investors digest the latest economic indicators and central bank rhetoric. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading at approximately 4.19%. This level reflects a market grappling with expectations for future interest rates and inflation, with demand for safe-haven assets providing some cap on upward yield movements.

Across the Atlantic, the German 10-year Bund yield stands at around 2.45%. European bond markets are closely watching the European Central Bank's (ECB) communication regarding monetary policy, particularly as economic growth remains subdued in some parts of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the UK 10-year Gilt yield is trading at approximately 3.86%. Gilt yields are influenced by domestic inflation pressures and the Bank of England's (BoE) policy outlook, both of which are under intense scrutiny following recent economic releases.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

As of Tuesday, market participants are advised to consider the following tactical playbook for intraday and multiday strategies across key assets. A predominant neutral bias suggests a focus on range-trading or market-neutral optional structures around daily pivot points, with directional triggers contingent on confirmed breakouts.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,509.37
• Support Levels: S1 4,487.93, S2 4,458.37
• Resistance Levels: R1 4,538.93, R2 4,560.37
• Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 4,487.93 and 4,538.93, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,509.37 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,560.37 or below 4,458.37.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 57.87
• Support Levels: S1 57.76, S2 57.64
• Resistance Levels: R1 57.99, R2 58.10
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 57.76 and 57.99, or market-neutral optional structures around the 57.87 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 58.10 or below 57.64.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1775
• Support Levels: S1 1.1767, S2 1.1755
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1786, R2 1.1794
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 1.1767 and 1.1786, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1775 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1794 or below 1.1755.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,472.44
• Support Levels: S1 25,390.85, S2 25,320.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,543.29, R2 25,624.88
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 25,390.85 and 25,543.29, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,472.44 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,624.88 or below 25,320.00.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,872.09
• Support Levels: S1 6,862.14, S2 6,845.80
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,888.43, R2 6,898.38
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 6,862.14 and 6,888.43, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,872.09 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,898.38 or below 6,845.80.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,281.15
• Support Levels: S1 24,206.19, S2 24,128.41
• Resistance Levels: R1 24,358.93, R2 24,433.89
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 24,206.19 and 24,358.93, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,281.15 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 24,433.89 or below 24,128.41.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,631.00
• Support Levels: S1 44,464.00, S2 44,334.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 44,761.00, R2 44,928.00
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 44,464.00 and 44,761.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,631.00 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 44,928.00 or below 44,334.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,556.83
• Support Levels: S1 2,540.75, S2 2,522.73
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,574.85, R2 2,590.93
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 2,540.75 and 2,574.85, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,556.83 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,590.93 or below 2,522.73.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.