Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Cautious Optimism Amidst Sectoral Rotation (Monday, December 22, 2025)

The final trading week before the holidays begins with a mixed sentiment across global equity markets. Investors are navigating a landscape characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction, leading to noticeable sector rotations and selective capital flows.

US Index Futures and Pre-Market Tone

US index futures are signaling a slightly positive pre-market opening this Monday. Both the US500 and NAS100 are indicating a modest upward bias of approximately +0.07%. Despite this slight positive tilt, the overall pre-market tone remains one of cautious optimism, with market participants keeping a close watch for potential breakout or fakeout movements around recent highs and lows.

Volatility and Market Sentiment

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. This suggests that the market is actively pricing in and paying for protection, yet without displaying signs of extreme panic. This elevated VIX aligns with the current mixed sentiment, indicating underlying caution despite the fractional gains in futures.

FX and Commodities Snapshot

In the foreign exchange market, EURUSD holds a neutral bias, with its direction largely influenced by the differential in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data. Commodities also reflect this neutrality; both Gold and WTI crude oil are trading with a neutral bias. Their flows continue to be a blend of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Tactical Focus for the Day

Today’s trading is expected to remain highly tactical, with market participants awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts to provide clearer direction. The focus will likely be on trading around established support and resistance levels. Investors are advised to remain vigilant for any sudden headline-driven news that could prompt swift market reactions.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Monday, December 22, 2025: Morning Markets Overview

Global markets open the week with a cautious tone. Investors are closely monitoring a moderate macro calendar for fresh catalysts, following a period of consolidation across major indices.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying limited directional conviction this morning. Major indices, including the Nikkei and Hang Seng, are experiencing contained movements as focus remains firmly on local news flows and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. Traders are seeking clarity amidst a lack of strong drivers.

Europe

European futures are signaling a largely neutral open, with indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx expected to see marginal movements. The overarching sentiment suggests a wait-and-see approach from investors, who are keenly anticipating new macroeconomic and political developments to provide clearer direction.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The economic calendar for today is of moderate significance, though several publications could influence market sentiment for both indices and FX pairs:

• Morning: The early hours will feature a series of confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates. These releases will offer insights into the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with key data points on inflation, labor, or economic activity scheduled for release. These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD exchange rate and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, market participants should monitor any potential speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, statistics pertaining to financial conditions will be scrutinized for any signs of possible volatility spikes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels Update - Monday, December 22, 2025

Markets closed yesterday's trading session with a generally positive tone, particularly across equity indices, while commodities saw varied movements. Below is a detailed look at key technical levels, calculated from yesterday's closing data, to guide today's intraday trading.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a decidedly bullish session yesterday, closing at 4,449.00, near the top of its daily range of 4,367.90 – 4,453.00. The classic pivot point for today stands at 4,423.30. Key resistance levels are identified at R1 4,478.70 and R2 4,508.40. On the downside, immediate support is found at S1 4,393.60, with a further support level at S2 4,338.20.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude demonstrated a moderately bullish performance, closing at 57.13 within the upper bounds of its 56.60 – 57.26 range. The pivot point for today is set at 57.00. Resistance levels are noted at R1 57.39 and R2 57.66. Supports are positioned at S1 56.73 and S2 56.34.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways yesterday, closing at 1.1727, also in the upper part of its 1.1710 – 1.1727 range. The pivot point is calculated at 1.1722. Resistance levels are at R1 1.1733 and R2 1.1739. Support levels are identified at S1 1.1716 and S2 1.1704.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 had a moderately bullish day, closing at 25,346.18, near the peak of its 25,134.26 – 25,354.82 range. The intraday pivot for today is 25,278.42. Resistance levels are R1 25,422.58 and R2 25,498.98. Support levels are found at S1 25,202.02 and S2 25,057.86.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 also posted a moderately bullish session, closing at 6,834.50, at the higher end of its 6,792.62 – 6,840.02 range. The pivot point is 6,822.38. Key resistance levels are R1 6,852.14 and R2 6,869.78. Supports are located at S1 6,804.74 and S2 6,774.98.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX experienced a relatively sideways session, closing at 24,288.40, within the upper portion of its 24,153.23 – 24,305.82 range. The daily pivot stands at 24,249.15. Resistance levels are R1 24,345.07 and R2 24,401.74. Support levels are identified at S1 24,192.48 and S2 24,096.56.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded a moderately bullish session, closing at 44,758.00, near the high of its 44,412.00 – 44,789.00 range. The pivot point for today is 44,653.00. Resistance levels are at R1 44,894.00 and R2 45,030.00. Supports are found at S1 44,517.00 and S2 44,276.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 showed a moderately bullish trend, closing at 2,529.43, towards the upper limit of its 2,508.59 – 2,534.82 range. The pivot for today is 2,524.28. Resistance levels are R1 2,539.97 and R2 2,550.51. Support levels are set at S1 2,513.74 and S2 2,498.05.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Update

Today's market open sees a nuanced picture across various asset classes, with volatility metrics indicating a heightened risk premium, while the U.S. dollar and bond yields show recent movements.

Volatility Overview

Equity market volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500, currently stands at approximately 14.9%. This level is largely in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency in the broader market. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at around 18.5%, also aligning with its recent average. Cross-asset volatility gauges for Gold (GVZ at ~20.7%) and Oil (OVX at ~33.6%) likewise show levels consistent with their recent historical averages.

However, a closer look at the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence between realized and implied volatility. The VIX's implied volatility, at approximately 14.9%, is notably higher than the 10-day realized volatility of around 11.3%. This indicates a substantial risk premium being priced into the market, suggesting that investors are anticipating potentially larger price swings in the near term than have recently materialized.

The Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ), which measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility for the EUR/USD exchange rate, has shown an uptick, rising to 7.8 this week from a November average of 6.5. This suggests an expectation of increased choppiness in the euro-dollar pair.

USD Performance

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose slightly to 98.6305 today, marking a 0.03% increase from the previous session. Despite this recent uptick, the dollar has experienced a weakening trend over the past month, declining by 1.51%. Looking at a broader perspective, the DXY has trended lower throughout 2025, down by 9.1% year-to-date, and has weakened by 8.71% over the last 12 months. This performance reflects a complex interplay of factors including easing inflation and a weakening labor market, with expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate reductions in the coming year.

Bond Yields

U.S. Treasury yields are showing some movement today. The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note stands at approximately 4.17%, having increased by 0.03 percentage points from the previous session. While it has decreased by -0.36% over the past week, the yield has edged up by 1.78% over the past month. This rebound comes amidst a global rise in bond yields, influenced by expectations of tighter monetary policies from major foreign central banks. Investors continue to monitor economic data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook - Monday, December 22, 2025

Today's market analysis indicates a prevailing neutral bias across key assets, suggesting a context ripe for range-trading strategies. Traders should focus on identified support and resistance levels, with directional moves likely only on confirmed breakouts beyond the defined wider ranges.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,423.23
• Support Levels: S1 4,393.47, S2 4,338.13
• Resistance Levels: R1 4,478.57, R2 4,508.33
• Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading strategies between 4,393.47 and 4,478.57, or market-neutral option structures around the 4,423.23 pivot. Directional triggers are expected only on confirmed breakouts above 4,508.33 or below 4,338.13.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 56.99
• Support Levels: S1 56.73, S2 56.33
• Resistance Levels: R1 57.39, R2 57.65
• Bias: Neutral. Strategies are best suited for range-trading between 56.73 and 57.39, or market-neutral option structures centered on the 56.99 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 57.65 or below 56.33 would signal directional moves.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1722
• Support Levels: S1 1.1716, S2 1.1704
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1733, R2 1.1739
• Bias: Neutral. The current environment is conducive to range-trading between 1.1716 and 1.1733, or market-neutral option strategies around the 1.1722 pivot. Directional triggers will activate on confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1739 or below 1.1704.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,278.42
• Support Levels: S1 25,202.02, S2 25,057.86
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,422.58, R2 25,498.98
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 25,202.02 and 25,422.58 is favored, along with market-neutral option structures around the 25,278.42 pivot. Directional opportunities arise on confirmed breakouts above 25,498.98 or below 25,057.86.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,822.38
• Support Levels: S1 6,804.74, S2 6,774.98
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,852.14, R2 6,869.78
• Bias: Neutral. The market is best suited for range-trading between 6,804.74 and 6,852.14, or market-neutral option strategies near the 6,822.38 pivot. Look for directional triggers on confirmed breakouts beyond 6,869.78 or below 6,774.98.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,249.15
• Support Levels: S1 24,192.48, S2 24,096.56
• Resistance Levels: R1 24,345.07, R2 24,401.74
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 24,192.48 and 24,345.07 is the preferred approach, or market-neutral option structures around the 24,249.15 pivot. Directional movements are anticipated only on confirmed breakouts above 24,401.74 or below 24,096.56.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,653.00
• Support Levels: S1 44,517.00, S2 44,276.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 44,894.00, R2 45,030.00
• Bias: Neutral. The context supports range-trading between 44,517.00 and 44,894.00, or market-neutral option strategies around the 44,653.00 pivot. Directional shifts are contingent on confirmed breakouts beyond 45,030.00 or below 44,276.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,524.28
• Support Levels: S1 2,513.74, S2 2,498.05
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,539.97, R2 2,550.51
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 2,513.74 and 2,539.97 is recommended, along with market-neutral option structures near the 2,524.28 pivot. Directional triggers will be observed on confirmed breakouts above 2,550.51 or below 2,498.05.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading in derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.