Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Futures Show Slight Positive Bias Amidst Quiet Sunday Trading

As markets approach the start of the new week, Sunday's pre-market activity indicates a generally mixed sentiment with no strong directional conviction. Investors are observing selective sectoral flows, anticipating fresh macro catalysts to guide movements.

US Index Futures US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are currently reflecting a modest positive bias, up approximately +0.07%. The focus remains on key technical levels, with traders closely monitoring for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows. While the slight uptick suggests some underlying demand, the overall picture points to cautious positioning ahead of Monday's open. German futures (GER30) also exhibit a similar subtle upward tilt.

Pre-Market Tone and Volatility The pre-market tone is largely characterized by a holding pattern. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains elevated compared to recent lows. This suggests that market participants are willing to pay for protection, though there are no immediate signs of extreme panic. This elevated volatility, coupled with the lack of strong directional conviction, underscores a market awaiting clarity from forthcoming economic data or significant headlines.

Broader Market Overview In the currency markets, EURUSD maintains a neutral bias, with its direction largely contingent on the evolving differentials between Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policies, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data. Commodities are also trading with a neutral stance; both gold and WTI crude oil reflect a balance of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Tactical Outlook With new macro catalysts eagerly awaited, the immediate tactical focus for traders will likely involve operating around established support and resistance levels. Given the current environment, vigilance against sudden, unexpected headlines remains paramount, as these could swiftly alter market dynamics.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update: December 21, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to your market briefing. As we close out the week, global markets are showing a nuanced picture, with investors largely in a holding pattern ahead of key economic data and policy signals.

Asia: Limited Directional Strength

Asian markets, including the Nikkei and Hang Seng, are expected to exhibit limited directional strength today. Movements remain contained as investors focus intently on localized news and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. The lack of a strong overarching theme suggests a day driven by specific regional developments.

Europe: Awaiting Catalysts

European futures, encompassing benchmarks such as the DAX and EuroStoxx, are largely subdued in pre-market trading. The current outlook appears neutral, with market participants eagerly awaiting fresh macroeconomic and political catalysts to provide a clearer direction. The subdued sentiment points to a cautious start to the trading day across the continent.

Key Macroeconomic Calendar (CET)

While the overall macroeconomic calendar for today is of moderate importance, several publications hold the potential to influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets:

• Morning: Focus will be on the Eurozone, with the release of various confidence and production indicators. Alongside these, several local updates across Europe could also impact regional trading.
• Afternoon: The spotlight shifts to the United States. Key data releases, which could include figures on inflation, employment, or general economic activity (depending on the specific day's schedule), will be closely watched. These reports are anticipated to be particularly influential for the EUR/USD exchange rate and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Investors should monitor any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, statistics pertaining to financial conditions will be scrutinized for potential spikes in volatility.

Investors are advised to remain vigilant as these releases unfold, as they could provide the much-needed impetus for market movements.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (December 21, 2025)

Good morning and welcome to our technical levels update for today, Sunday, December 21, 2025. The following levels are calculated based on yesterday's closing data. Investors should note the classic pivot points, which can serve as crucial support and resistance levels for potential intraday movements.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,387.30
• Yesterday's Range: 4,336.30 – 4,389.00
• Classic Pivots: P 4,370.87 · S1 4,352.73 · R1 4,405.43 · S2 4,318.17 · R2 4,423.57
• Context: Gold experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper portion of its daily range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 56.52
• Yesterday's Range: 55.61 – 56.72
• Classic Pivots: P 56.28 · S1 55.85 · R1 56.96 · S2 55.17 · R2 57.39
• Context: WTI Crude also showed a moderately bullish bias, finishing near the high of its daily trading range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1726
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1704 – 1.1738
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1722 · S1 1.1707 · R1 1.1741 · S2 1.1689 · R2 1.1756
• Context: The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways, with its closing price situated centrally within its daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,346.18
• Yesterday's Range: 25,134.26 – 25,354.82
• Classic Pivots: P 25,278.42 · S1 25,202.02 · R1 25,422.58 · S2 25,057.86 · R2 25,498.98
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 recorded a moderately bullish session, closing near the upper end of its daily trading range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,834.50
• Yesterday's Range: 6,792.62 – 6,840.02
• Classic Pivots: P 6,822.38 · S1 6,804.74 · R1 6,852.14 · S2 6,774.98 · R2 6,869.78
• Context: The S&P 500 demonstrated a moderately bullish performance, with the closing price in the higher part of its daily range.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,288.40
• Yesterday's Range: 24,153.23 – 24,305.82
• Classic Pivots: P 24,249.15 · S1 24,192.48 · R1 24,345.07 · S2 24,096.56 · R2 24,401.74
• Context: The DAX experienced a relatively lateral session, closing towards the upper portion of its daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 44,758.00
• Yesterday's Range: 44,412.00 – 44,789.00
• Classic Pivots: P 44,653.00 · S1 44,517.00 · R1 44,894.00 · S2 44,276.00 · R2 45,030.00
• Context: The FTSE MIB showed a moderately bullish tendency, with its closing price in the higher part of the daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,529.43
• Yesterday's Range: 2,508.59 – 2,534.82
• Classic Pivots: P 2,524.28 · S1 2,513.74 · R1 2,539.97 · S2 2,498.05 · R2 2,550.51
• Context: The Russell 2000 concluded a moderately bullish session, with the closing price observed in the upper segment of its daily range.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Outlook

As markets head into the final trading week of the year, a close examination of volatility metrics provides insight into underlying sentiment. Implied volatility, as measured by the VIX, continues to signal a degree of caution, while cross-asset volatility remains broadly in line with recent averages.

Volatility Dynamics: Realized vs. Implied

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently sits at approximately 14.9%. This level is in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency in the broader market.
• However, a more detailed look at the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence between implied and realized volatility. With the VIX at ~14.9% and the 10-day realized volatility at ~11.3%, the implied volatility priced by the VIX is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility. This elevated risk premium indicates that market participants are pricing in a higher degree of potential future swings compared to what has been observed in the very recent past.

Cross-Asset Volatility Snapshot

• The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at ~18.5%, consistent with its recent average, also showing no obvious signs of undue fear or complacency in technology and growth stocks.
• GVZ (Gold Volatility) is at ~20.7%, aligning with its recent average. This suggests that the precious metal is not currently exhibiting extreme volatility, either to the upside or downside.
• OVX (Oil Volatility) stands at ~33.6%, which is in line with its recent average. This indicates that despite ongoing geopolitical factors, crude oil markets are experiencing a typical range of price fluctuations for this commodity.

USD and Bond Yields

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has seen varied performance. The dollar index (DXY) ended the week broadly stable, reflecting a cautious tone from investors ahead of key economic data releases next year. The recent trend suggests that the market continues to grapple with expectations around monetary policy divergence, particularly concerning the Federal Reserve's stance compared to other major central banks.

Looking at the fixed income space, U.S. Treasury yields have shown some fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark, has hovered around critical levels, influenced by shifting inflation expectations and central bank rhetoric. Recent movements indicate that while investors are still anticipating potential interest rate adjustments in the coming year, the market is also digesting robust economic data that could support a 'higher for longer' rate narrative. This has resulted in a complex environment for bond investors, with short-term yields remaining elevated relative to longer-term counterparts, maintaining a degree of yield curve inversion.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

Today's market analysis indicates a predominantly neutral bias across major assets, suggesting a context more suitable for range-trading strategies. Key directional triggers are identified for breakout scenarios beyond established resistance and support levels. Investors should focus on confirmed breakouts for directional plays, otherwise considering market-neutral approaches around the daily pivots.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,370.87
• Support Levels: S1 at 4,352.73, S2 at 4,318.17
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 4,405.43, R2 at 4,423.57
• Bias: Neutral. The current environment favors range-trading between 4,352.73 and 4,405.43, or employing market-neutral option structures around the 4,370.87 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,423.57 or below 4,318.17.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 56.28
• Support Levels: S1 at 55.85, S2 at 55.17
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 56.96, R2 at 57.39
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading strategy is advisable between 55.85 and 56.96, or market-neutral option structures near the 56.28 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 57.39 or below 55.17.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1722
• Support Levels: S1 at 1.1707, S2 at 1.1689
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1741, R2 at 1.1756
• Bias: Neutral. The pair is suited for range-trading between 1.1707 and 1.1741, or market-neutral option strategies around the 1.1722 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1756 or below 1.1689.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,278.42
• Support Levels: S1 at 25,202.02, S2 at 25,057.86
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,422.58, R2 at 25,498.98
• Bias: Neutral. Consider range-trading between 25,202.02 and 25,422.58, or market-neutral option structures around the 25,278.42 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,498.98 or below 25,057.86.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,822.38
• Support Levels: S1 at 6,804.74, S2 at 6,774.98
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,852.14, R2 at 6,869.78
• Bias: Neutral. The index is suitable for range-trading between 6,804.74 and 6,852.14, or market-neutral option strategies around the 6,822.38 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,869.78 or below 6,774.98.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,249.15
• Support Levels: S1 at 24,192.48, S2 at 24,096.56
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,345.07, R2 at 24,401.74
• Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading between 24,192.48 and 24,345.07, or market-neutral option structures around the 24,249.15 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 24,401.74 or below 24,096.56.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,653.00
• Support Levels: S1 at 44,517.00, S2 at 44,276.00
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 44,894.00, R2 at 45,030.00
• Bias: Neutral. This market is primed for range-trading between 44,517.00 and 44,894.00, or market-neutral option strategies around the 44,653.00 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 45,030.00 or below 44,276.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,524.28
• Support Levels: S1 at 2,513.74, S2 at 2,498.05
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,539.97, R2 at 2,550.51
• Bias: Neutral. Optimal strategy involves range-trading between 2,513.74 and 2,539.97, or market-neutral option structures around the 2,524.28 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,550.51 or below 2,498.05.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.