Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Mixed Signals as Week Concludes

A mixed sentiment permeated global markets as the trading week drew to a close, with equity indices largely lacking a strong directional conviction. Sectoral rotations and highly selective capital flows characterized the trading landscape.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone

US index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are currently indicating a slight positive bias of approximately +0.07. This modest uplift comes amidst broader sectoral rotations and highly selective capital flows. Traders are keenly observing key technical levels, with a focus on potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows.

The pre-market tone reflects a market that is paying for protection, as evidenced by the Volatility Index (VIX) remaining at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. While not signaling extreme panic, the higher VIX suggests underlying caution and a preparedness for price swings.

Underlying Drivers & Top Movers Outlook

The prevailing sentiment continues to be heavily influenced by the interplay of macro factors, particularly the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside critical inflation and labor market data. Gold and WTI crude oil also exhibit neutral biases, with flows reflecting both macro factors and specific news related to rates and growth.

Given the current environment of selective flows, market participants should anticipate tactical opportunities arising from these underlying themes. Focus will likely remain on:

• Sectors displaying resilience or sensitivity to upcoming economic data releases.
• Individual equities reacting to company-specific news or earnings guidance, even without new major catalysts.
• Rotation plays, where capital shifts between different market segments based on perceived value or safety.

Tactical Focus for the Upcoming Week

Looking ahead to the start of the next trading week, the market remains in anticipation of fresh macro catalysts. Operability is expected to be highly tactical, emphasizing trades around established support and resistance levels. Investors and traders are advised to remain vigilant for any sudden, impactful headlines that could quickly shift sentiment and direction.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update: December 20, 2025

As the trading week concludes, global markets exhibit a cautious tone, with investors largely awaiting fresh catalysts to define clearer direction. Today being Saturday, market activity is subdued, but attention is already turning to the drivers that will shape the sentiment for the upcoming week.

Asia Markets

Asian markets have recently shown a lack of strong directional conviction, with benchmarks such as the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng Index experiencing contained movements. The primary focus for regional investors remains centered on local news developments and key economic data releases, particularly from China and Japan. The absence of a definitive trend suggests a period of consolidation as participants digest recent information and anticipate future economic indicators.

European Markets

Similarly, European equity futures have indicated minimal movement, pointing to a neutral near-term outlook for major indices like the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50. The current environment reflects a wait-and-see approach from investors, who are actively looking for new macroeconomic reports or significant political developments to provide a fresh impetus. This subdued sentiment is likely to persist until more concrete market-moving news emerges.

Key Macro Calendar: Looking Ahead

While today's calendar is naturally quiet, the week ahead features a moderate roster of economic publications that could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Investors will be keenly watching:

• Early Week: Initial focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local economic updates, which could provide insights into regional economic health.
• Mid-Week: Attention will shift to the United States with releases pertaining to inflation, labor markets, or broader economic activity. These data points will be particularly crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Late Week: Speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) members, coupled with statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored. These events have the potential to trigger volatility spikes as markets react to central bank commentary and financial health assessments.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels Ahead

As the trading week concludes, market participants will be closely watching key technical levels derived from yesterday's closing data. Friday saw a generally bullish tone across major indices and commodities, with EUR/USD exhibiting a more neutral stance. The following analysis provides crucial support, resistance, and pivot points for the upcoming sessions, calculated based on December 19, 2025 closing prices.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,361.40, navigating a daily range between 4,350.10 and 4,361.40. The session was moderately bullish, with prices settling in the upper portion of the daily range. Key pivot levels for traders to monitor are the Pivot (P) at 4,357.63, with immediate supports (S1) at 4,353.87 and (S2) at 4,346.33. Resistances are identified at (R1) 4,365.17 and (R2) 4,368.93.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude concluded the week at 56.66, following a moderately bullish session that saw prices trade within a range of 55.82 to 56.90, closing near the high. The central pivot point (P) is 56.46. Support levels are established at S1 56.02 and S2 55.38, while resistance levels are found at R1 57.10 and R2 57.54.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a largely sideways session, closing at 1.1726 within a daily range of 1.1704 to 1.1738, settling near the midpoint. The pivot point (P) is 1.1722. Immediate supports stand at S1 1.1707 and S2 1.1689. Resistance levels are marked at R1 1.1741 and R2 1.1756.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 registered a moderately bullish performance, closing at 25,346.18 after trading between 25,134.26 and 25,354.82, with the close in the upper part of its range. The pivotal level (P) is 25,278.42. Key support levels are S1 25,202.02 and S2 25,057.86. Resistance levels are set at R1 25,422.58 and R2 25,498.98.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 experienced a moderately bullish session, closing at 6,834.50. The index traded within a range of 6,792.62 to 6,840.02, finishing at the higher end. The central pivot (P) is 6,822.38. Support levels are at S1 6,804.74 and S2 6,774.98. Resistance levels are noted at R1 6,852.14 and R2 6,869.78.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed at 24,288.40 yesterday, following a largely sideways session, though it managed to close in the upper part of its daily range (24,153.23 – 24,305.82). The pivot point (P) for the DAX is 24,249.15. Supports are found at S1 24,192.48 and S2 24,096.56. Resistances are positioned at R1 24,345.07 and R2 24,401.74.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB demonstrated a moderately bullish session, closing at 44,758.00. Its daily range was between 44,412.00 and 44,789.00, with the close near the high. The pivot point (P) is 44,653.00. Supports are at S1 44,517.00 and S2 44,276.00. Resistances are identified at R1 44,894.00 and R2 45,030.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 also had a moderately bullish day, closing at 2,529.43. The index traded within a range of 2,508.59 to 2,534.82, closing at the upper end. The key pivot (P) is 2,524.28. Support levels are S1 2,513.74 and S2 2,498.05. Resistance levels are R1 2,539.97 and R2 2,550.51.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

Market participants are waking up to a Friday that continues to show nuanced signals across asset classes, with volatility metrics offering a key lens into sentiment. Macroeconomic factors, particularly concerning the US Dollar and bond yields, are also actively shaping the current landscape.

Volatility Landscape

• Equity Volatility: The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands at approximately 14.9%, maintaining a level consistent with its recent average. This suggests a lack of extreme fear or complacency in the broader market. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100), at around 18.5%, also aligns with its recent historical mean.
• Cross-Asset Volatility: Moving beyond equities, Gold (GVZ) volatility is observed at roughly 20.7%, while Oil (OVX) volatility is considerably higher at about 33.6%. Both figures are in line with their recent averages, indicating no immediate signs of abnormal fear or excessive calm in these commodity markets.
• Realized vs. Implied (SPX): A notable divergence is apparent in the S&P 500. With a 10-day realized volatility around 11.3% and the VIX (implied volatility) at 14.9%, the market is currently pricing in a significant risk premium. This suggests that while recent price swings have been moderate, options traders are anticipating greater potential movement in the near future.

USD Performance

The US Dollar is generally expected to experience a gradual decline, or a mild, steady drift lower, through December 2025 and into early 2026. This anticipated softening in the dollar's dominance is largely due to fading yield advantages as global economic conditions stabilize and markets increasingly price in a more accommodative US interest-rate trajectory. Incoming economic indicators, including soft US inflation data (headline CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6% in November) and a cooling labor market, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing. Indeed, the Fed is expected to be in an easing cycle, with a high probability of a rate cut to 350-375 basis points at its December meeting, serving as a key driver of USD weakness. The DXY (US Dollar Index) has been trading under pressure and has struggled to reclaim the 100.00 level. Overall, analysts anticipate further weakening for the dollar into the new year, following a year-to-date decline of 9.0% for the DXY in 2025.

Bond Yields

The US Treasury market is navigating a complex environment, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.14% on December 19, 2025. This marks a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous session and 0.06 points over the past month, although it remains 0.38 points lower than a year ago. Market participants are closely assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook amidst signs of subdued inflation and a moderating labor market. The Fed recently cut the overnight Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. Markets are currently anticipating at least two additional rate cuts by the Fed in 2026.

Long-term Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs, with 30-year bonds reaching the 5% range, and term premiums have expanded, reflecting investors' demand for greater compensation for future uncertainty. While the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to hover around 4.17% by the end of the current quarter, forecasts suggest it may decline to 3.93% within the next 12 months. The bond market is likely to experience "sizeable swings" in yield levels throughout 2025 due to elevated rate volatility and upcoming US policy revelations. On December 12, 2025, the 2-year Treasury note finished at 3.52%, and the 30-year note at 4.85%. In this dynamic environment, corporate credit is expected to continue outperforming government bonds.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook - December 20, 2025

Good morning, traders. As we head into the weekend, our tactical playbook for today, December 20, 2025, indicates a predominant neutral bias across key assets. The current market context appears most conducive to range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures, with clear directional triggers identified for potential breakouts.

Intraday / Multiday Tactical Playbook

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC):
  • Daily Pivot: 4,357.63
  • Support Levels: S1 4,353.87, S2 4,346.33
  • Resistance Levels: R1 4,365.17, R2 4,368.93
  • Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading between 4,353.87 and 4,365.17, or market-neutral option structures around the 4,357.63 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,368.93 or below 4,346.33.
• WTI Crude (CL):
  • Daily Pivot: 56.46
  • Support Levels: S1 56.02, S2 55.38
  • Resistance Levels: R1 57.10, R2 57.54
  • Bias: Neutral. Suitable for range-trading between 56.02 and 57.10, or market-neutral option structures around the 56.46 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 57.54 or below 55.38.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E):
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1722
  • Support Levels: S1 1.1707, S2 1.1689
  • Resistance Levels: R1 1.1741, R2 1.1756
  • Bias: Neutral. Best for range-trading between 1.1707 and 1.1741, or market-neutral option structures around the 1.1722 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1756 or below 1.1689.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ):
  • Daily Pivot: 25,278.42
  • Support Levels: S1 25,202.02, S2 25,057.86
  • Resistance Levels: R1 25,422.58, R2 25,498.98
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 25,202.02 and 25,422.58, or market-neutral option structures around the 25,278.42 pivot are recommended.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,498.98 or below 25,057.86.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY):
  • Daily Pivot: 6,822.38
  • Support Levels: S1 6,804.74, S2 6,774.98
  • Resistance Levels: R1 6,852.14, R2 6,869.78
  • Bias: Neutral. Strategies should focus on range-trading between 6,804.74 and 6,852.14, or market-neutral option structures around the 6,822.38 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,869.78 or below 6,774.98.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX):
  • Daily Pivot: 24,249.15
  • Support Levels: S1 24,192.48, S2 24,096.56
  • Resistance Levels: R1 24,345.07, R2 24,401.74
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 24,192.48 and 24,345.07, or market-neutral option structures around the 24,249.15 pivot are suggested.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 24,401.74 or below 24,096.56.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO):
  • Daily Pivot: 44,653.00
  • Support Levels: S1 44,517.00, S2 44,276.00
  • Resistance Levels: R1 44,894.00, R2 45,030.00
  • Bias: Neutral. The current environment supports range-trading between 44,517.00 and 44,894.00, or market-neutral option structures around the 44,653.00 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 45,030.00 or below 44,276.00.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM):
  • Daily Pivot: 2,524.28
  • Support Levels: S1 2,513.74, S2 2,498.05
  • Resistance Levels: R1 2,539.97, R2 2,550.51
  • Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading between 2,513.74 and 2,539.97, or market-neutral option structures around the 2,524.28 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,550.51 or below 2,498.05.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leverage instruments involves a high level of risk.