Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets Update: December 19, 2025

Overall Market Tone

Markets are exhibiting a mixed tone this Friday, December 19, 2025, with no strong directional bias evident across major equity indices. We are observing continued sectoral rotations and selective capital flows, indicating a cautious approach as the year draws to a close.

US Index Futures and Pre-market Activity

US equity futures, including the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100), are showing a marginal positive bias of approximately +0.03% in pre-market trading. This muted upward drift suggests a market awaiting fresh catalysts. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as these levels could dictate intraday direction. The underlying sentiment reflects a market prepared for tactical adjustments rather than a sustained trend.

Volatility Outlook

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains at intermediate levels, signaling a moderate pricing of tactical correction risks. There is no indication of systemic stress, but market participants are factoring in the possibility of short-term pullbacks, aligning with the observed selective flows and rotational activity.

Broader Market Context

In the FX space, EUR/USD holds a neutral bias, with its trajectory largely influenced by the differential in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data. Commodities are also seeing neutral biases; gold reflects both macro factors and specific news on rates and growth, while WTI crude oil prices continue to navigate a similar landscape.

Tactical Focus for the Day

Today’s trading is expected to be highly tactical, with market participants keenly awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts. Given the current environment, focusing on established support and resistance levels will be crucial. Furthermore, traders should remain highly attentive to any sudden headline news that could trigger swift market reactions, emphasizing the importance of agility in position management. Individual stock performance is likely to be driven by these selective flows and sectoral dynamics, rather than broad market momentum.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update – Friday, December 19, 2025

Global Market Overview

As Friday's trading commences, global markets exhibit a cautious tone, with investors seeking fresh catalysts amid broadly contained movements across major regions.

Asia

Asian markets, including the Nikkei and Hang Seng, are showing limited directional strength this morning. Movements are contained as investors focus on local news and key economic data from China and Japan. The lack of strong impetus suggests a wait-and-see approach as participants digest recent information and anticipate future developments.

Europe

European futures, including the DAX and EuroStoxx, are relatively subdued, indicating a neutral start to the trading day. The current market picture for Europe remains balanced, with investors appearing to be awaiting fresh macroeconomic or political catalysts to guide market direction. Volume is expected to remain moderate as participants consolidate positions ahead of the weekend.

Key Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar presents moderate relevance, though certain publications could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange. Investors should pay close attention to the following:

• Morning: Focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates across the continent. These releases could provide insights into regional economic health.
• P.M.: The afternoon session will bring key U.S. data, potentially covering inflation, labor, or activity, which will be crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and U.S. equity indices. While the primary focus of this report is Asia and Europe, the impact of these U.S. figures will certainly ripple across global markets.
• Evening: As the day concludes, investors should monitor any scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve or European Central Bank members, as well as financial conditions statistics, for potential volatility spikes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets - Friday, December 19, 2025

Good morning, traders. As we head into Friday's session, markets show varied technical postures. Below is a breakdown of key technical levels, including yesterday's closing data and pivot points for major commodities, currencies, and equity indices, calculated based on yesterday's closing data updated as of December 19, 2025.

Commodities

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,356.30, after trading within a range of 4,336.30 – 4,368.40. The session was largely sideways, with prices settling in the middle of the daily range.

• Pivot (P): 4,353.67
• Support 1 (S1): 4,338.93
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,371.03
• Support 2 (S2): 4,321.57
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,385.77

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended yesterday at 55.95, having traded between 55.75 and 55.99. The session was largely lateral, with the commodity closing in the upper part of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 55.90
• Support 1 (S1): 55.80
• Resistance 1 (R1): 56.04
• Support 2 (S2): 55.66
• Resistance 2 (R2): 56.14

Currencies

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed yesterday at 1.1712, within a range of 1.1712 – 1.1732. The session was largely sideways, with the pair closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 1.1719
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1706
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1725
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1700
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1738

Equity Indices

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 25,019.37, having navigated a range of 24,921.45 – 25,164.18. The session was clearly bullish, with the index closing in the middle of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 25,035.00
• Support 1 (S1): 24,905.82
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,148.55
• Support 2 (S2): 24,792.27
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,277.73

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 finished yesterday at 6,774.76, with a daily range of 6,758.50 – 6,816.13. The index experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 6,783.13
• Support 1 (S1): 6,750.13
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,807.76
• Support 2 (S2): 6,725.50
• Resistance 2 (R2): 6,840.76

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed yesterday at 24,199.50, after trading between 23,923.97 and 24,215.98. The session was moderately bullish, with the index closing in the upper part of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 24,113.15
• Support 1 (S1): 24,010.32
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,302.33
• Support 2 (S2): 23,821.14
• Resistance 2 (R2): 24,405.16

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded yesterday at 44,463.00, with a daily range from 44,068.00 to 44,466.00. The index showed a moderately bullish trend, closing in the upper part of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 44,332.33
• Support 1 (S1): 44,198.67
• Resistance 1 (R1): 44,596.67
• Support 2 (S2): 43,934.33
• Resistance 2 (R2): 44,730.33

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed yesterday at 2,507.87, within a range of 2,504.49 – 2,531.79. The session was moderately bullish, with the index closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Pivot (P): 2,514.72
• Support 1 (S1): 2,497.64
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,524.94
• Support 2 (S2): 2,487.42
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,542.02

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

As we head into the close of the week, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics across various asset classes, alongside movements in the US Dollar and global bond yields. The overarching theme remains the balance between current market stability and the forward-looking risk premium reflected in implied volatility.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied & Cross-Asset Snapshot

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands at approximately 16.9%, which is in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency in the broader market. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) at around 20.7%, the GVZ (Gold) at approximately 21.3%, and the OVX (Oil) at about 33.6% also align with their recent historical averages, indicating a balanced sentiment across these key assets.
• A crucial observation from the S&P 500 space is the significant spread between realized and implied volatility. The 10-day realized volatility for the S&P 500 is notably lower at approximately 10.2%, while the VIX (implied volatility) is priced much higher at 16.9%. This suggests that the market is currently demanding a substantial risk premium, implying an expectation of higher future volatility despite a relatively calm short-term realized environment. This elevated premium could reflect underlying uncertainties or upcoming events that traders are pricing in.

USD Performance and Bond Yields

Recent movements in the US Dollar and bond markets continue to influence investor sentiment and asset allocation strategies.

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some fluctuation over the past week, reacting to incoming economic data and central bank rhetoric. As of Friday, the DXY is trading around 103.15, reflecting a slight appreciation following stronger-than-expected retail sales data.
• In the bond market, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains a focal point for interest rate expectations. The yield is currently trading at approximately 4.25%. This level suggests that market participants are anticipating a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially indicating a higher-for-longer interest rate scenario.
• The yield curve continues to be closely watched for recessionary signals, with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields still inverted at approximately -25 basis points, although it has narrowed slightly from earlier in the week. This inversion typically signals market concerns about future economic growth.

Investors are advised to monitor these interconnected market dynamics closely, as the interplay between volatility, currency movements, and bond yields will likely dictate market direction in the coming weeks.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Today's Tactical Playbook

Today, Friday, our tactical playbook highlights neutral biases across major asset classes, suggesting a market environment primarily suited for range-trading strategies. Traders should pay close attention to established support and resistance levels for potential breakouts that could trigger directional moves.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is established at 4,353.57. Key support levels are found at S1 4,338.73 and S2 4,321.47, with resistances at R1 4,370.83 and R2 4,385.67. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 4,338.73 and 4,370.83, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,353.57 pivot. Directional triggers require confirmed breakouts beyond 4,385.67 or below 4,321.47.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude's daily pivot stands at 55.89. Support levels are S1 55.80 and S2 55.65, while resistances are R1 56.04 and R2 56.13. With a neutral bias, strategies should focus on range-trading between 55.80 and 56.04, or market-neutral optional structures near the 55.89 pivot. Confirmed directional triggers will occur on moves above 56.13 or below 55.65.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot is at 1.1718. Supports are marked at S1 1.1704 and S2 1.1697, and resistances at R1 1.1725 and R2 1.1738. A neutral bias prevails, making range-trading between 1.1704 and 1.1725, or market-neutral options around the 1.1718 pivot, suitable. Directional triggers are set for confirmed breakouts above 1.1738 or below 1.1697.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 sees its daily pivot at 25,035.00. Supports are at S1 24,905.82 and S2 24,792.27, with resistances at R1 25,148.55 and R2 25,277.73. The bias remains neutral, advocating range-trading between 24,905.82 and 25,148.55, or market-neutral options around the 25,035.00 pivot. Directional triggers are contingent on confirmed breakouts beyond 25,277.73 or below 24,792.27.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500's daily pivot is at 6,783.13. Support levels are S1 6,750.13 and S2 6,725.50, while resistances are R1 6,807.76 and R2 6,840.76. A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 6,750.13 and 6,807.76, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,783.13 pivot. Directional triggers will be activated on confirmed breakouts above 6,840.76 or below 6,725.50.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX has a daily pivot at 24,113.15. Supports are identified at S1 24,010.32 and S2 23,821.14, with resistances at R1 24,302.33 and R2 24,405.16. With a neutral bias, range-trading between 24,010.32 and 24,302.33, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 24,113.15 pivot, are recommended. Confirmed directional triggers are expected beyond 24,405.16 or below 23,821.14.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is 44,332.33. Key supports are S1 44,198.67 and S2 43,934.33, and resistances are R1 44,596.67 and R2 44,730.33. The bias is neutral, making range-trading between 44,198.67 and 44,596.67, or market-neutral options around the 44,332.33 pivot, suitable. Directional triggers require confirmed breakouts above 44,730.33 or below 43,934.33.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000's daily pivot is at 2,514.72. Supports are set at S1 2,497.64 and S2 2,487.42, with resistances at R1 2,524.94 and R2 2,542.02. Given a neutral bias, focus on range-trading between 2,497.64 and 2,524.94, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,514.72 pivot. Directional triggers are expected on confirmed breakouts above 2,542.02 or below 2,487.42.

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading in derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high degree of risk.