Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: December 18, 2025

Equity markets are poised for a mixed open this Thursday, December 18, 2025, with a general lack of strong directional conviction dominating the pre-market session. Investors are observing significant sector rotations and highly selective capital flows, indicating a cautious approach as the year draws to a close.

US Index Futures:

• US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are displaying a fractional positive bias (+0.03).
• However, traders remain vigilant for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, suggesting tactical caution despite the slight upward tilt.

Pre-Market Tone & Top Movers:

The overall pre-market tone reflects a market awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts. While specific top movers are yet to clearly emerge, the environment of selective flows and sector rotations suggests that individual stock performance will likely be highly differentiated. This implies that while the broader indices might show modest movement, certain sectors or companies could experience notable shifts based on specific news or fundamental factors.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is currently at intermediate levels. This indicates that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate sign of systemic stress. This further supports a nuanced trading environment where opportunistic plays around key support and resistance levels are likely to be favored.

Tactical Outlook: The focus for today remains on identifying new macro catalysts that could provide clearer direction. Traders are advised to maintain a tactical approach, paying close attention to sudden headline news which could trigger swift market reactions.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update: Thursday, December 18, 2025

Global markets open Thursday with a somewhat cautious tone, as investors digest recent movements and look for fresh directional catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets exhibited a lack of strong directional conviction overnight, with both the Nikkei and Hang Seng showing contained movements. The region's focus remains squarely on local news developments and key economic data releases from China and Japan. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators for any signs that could influence regional sentiment and trading activity.

Europe

European futures are signaling a subdued open, with both DAX and EuroStoxx futures indicating little significant movement. The overall picture for European markets remains largely neutral at present, as investors await new macroeconomic or political catalysts to provide clearer direction. Trading volumes may remain lighter until such triggers emerge.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for today is of moderate significance, though several scheduled publications have the potential to influence sentiment across equity indices and FX markets:

• Morning: The focus will be on the Eurozone, with the release of confidence and production indicators, alongside various local economic updates. These data points will offer insights into the health of the Euro area economy.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts to the USA, where key data on inflation, employment, or activity (depending on the specific daily schedule) will be released. These figures are crucial and could significantly impact the EURUSD exchange rate and US indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, potential speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) are on the docket. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions will be monitored for any possible spikes in volatility as market participants gauge central bank commentary and financial stability.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets Update - Thursday, December 18, 2025

Today, we delve into the key technical levels for major financial instruments, providing an overview of yesterday's performance and crucial intraday pivot points.

Key Technical Levels

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a largely lateral trading session yesterday, with the closing price settling in the middle of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 4,366.00
• Yesterday's Range: 4,355.20 – 4,375.10
• Classic Pivots: P 4,365.43 · S1 4,355.77 · R1 4,375.67 · S2 4,345.53 · R2 4,385.33

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude saw a moderately bullish session yesterday, closing within the central part of its daily trading range.

• Yesterday's Close: 56.42
• Yesterday's Range: 55.91 – 56.85
• Classic Pivots: P 56.39 · S1 55.94 · R1 56.88 · S2 55.45 · R2 57.33

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair traded in a largely lateral fashion yesterday, with the closing price observed in the upper portion of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1748
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1738 – 1.1752
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1746 · S1 1.1740 · R1 1.1754 · S2 1.1732 · R2 1.1760

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a clearly bearish session, closing near the lower end of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 24,647.61
• Yesterday's Range: 24,647.61 – 25,193.41
• Classic Pivots: P 24,829.54 · S1 24,465.68 · R1 25,011.48 · S2 24,283.74 · R2 25,375.34

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 saw a moderately bearish session yesterday, concluding near the bottom of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 6,721.43
• Yesterday's Range: 6,720.43 – 6,812.26
• Classic Pivots: P 6,751.37 · S1 6,690.49 · R1 6,782.32 · S2 6,659.54 · R2 6,843.20

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX traded largely sideways yesterday, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 23,960.59
• Yesterday's Range: 23,949.17 – 24,185.47
• Classic Pivots: P 24,031.74 · S1 23,878.02 · R1 24,114.32 · S2 23,795.44 · R2 24,268.04

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB session was largely lateral yesterday, with its closing price observed in the lower portion of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 44,099.00
• Yesterday's Range: 44,070.00 – 44,298.00
• Classic Pivots: P 44,155.67 · S1 44,013.33 · R1 44,241.33 · S2 43,927.67 · R2 44,383.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 experienced a moderately bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 2,492.30
• Yesterday's Range: 2,487.98 – 2,540.25
• Classic Pivots: P 2,506.84 · S1 2,473.44 · R1 2,525.71 · S2 2,454.57 · R2 2,559.11

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Shifting Currency Dynamics

Equity market volatility remains a key focus, with the VIX (S&P 500) currently hovering around 17.6%. This level is broadly in line with its recent average, suggesting neither excessive fear nor complacency is evident in the broader market at present. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) at approximately 21.8%, GVZ (Gold) at 21.2%, and OVX (Oil) at 36.7% are also aligned with their recent historical averages, indicating no significant spikes in short-term uncertainty across these asset classes.

However, a closer look at the S&P 500 reveals a notable divergence between realized and implied volatility. The implied volatility priced by the VIX, at around 17.6%, stands significantly above the 10-day realized volatility of approximately 9.0%. This substantial gap suggests that market participants are baking in a considerable risk premium, anticipating potentially higher volatility in the near future despite recent calm.

Currency and Fixed Income Markets

The U.S. dollar has entered December on a softer footing, influenced by market expectations for a potential year-end rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar index (DXY) has trended lower throughout 2025, down 9.1% year-to-date, with analysts expecting broader USD pressure to persist into early 2026 as yield advantages fade and global conditions stabilize. This follows multiple rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, including a 25 basis point reduction in December, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. These actions have materially reduced the USD's carry advantage.

In the fixed income market, U.S. Treasury yields have largely eased, though with some daily fluctuations. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note eased to 4.15% on December 18, 2025, a slight decrease from the previous session. This follows a closing of 4.19% on December 12, 2025. The 2-year Treasury note yield was reported at 3.484% on December 17, 2025, while the 30-year note closed at 4.85% on December 12, 2025. Despite a marginal increase over the past month, the 10-year yield remains 0.43 points lower than a year ago. Market participants are currently pricing in at least one further Fed rate cut for the coming year, contributing to the evolving dynamics in bond markets. JPMorgan Asset Management maintains a trading range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury at 3.75%–4.25%, anticipating a continued gradual reduction in the policy rate amidst a weakening labor market and moderating wages.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Thursday, December 18, 2025)

Today's session highlights a prevailing neutral bias across key assets, suggesting an environment suited for range-bound strategies. Traders should closely monitor established support and resistance levels for potential intraday opportunities, with confirmed breakouts beyond critical outer boundaries signaling stronger directional momentum.

Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multi-day)

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC):
  • Daily Pivot: 4,365.50
  • Key Levels: S1 4,355.90, S2 4,345.60, R1 4,375.80, R2 4,385.40
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 4,355.90 and 4,375.80, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,365.50 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 4,385.40 or below 4,345.60.
• WTI Crude (CL):
  • Daily Pivot: 56.39
  • Key Levels: S1 55.94, S2 55.45, R1 56.88, R2 57.33
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 55.94 and 56.88, or market-neutral optional structures around the 56.39 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 57.33 or below 55.45.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E):
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1746
  • Key Levels: S1 1.1740, S2 1.1732, R1 1.1754, R2 1.1760
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 1.1740 and 1.1754, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1746 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1760 or below 1.1732.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ):
  • Daily Pivot: 24,829.54
  • Key Levels: S1 24,465.68, S2 24,283.74, R1 25,011.48, R2 25,375.34
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 24,465.68 and 25,011.48, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,829.54 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 25,375.34 or below 24,283.74.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY):
  • Daily Pivot: 6,751.37
  • Key Levels: S1 6,690.49, S2 6,659.54, R1 6,782.32, R2 6,843.20
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 6,690.49 and 6,782.32, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,751.37 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 6,843.20 or below 6,659.54.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX):
  • Daily Pivot: 24,031.74
  • Key Levels: S1 23,878.02, S2 23,795.44, R1 24,114.32, R2 24,268.04
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 23,878.02 and 24,114.32, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,031.74 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 24,268.04 or below 23,795.44.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO):
  • Daily Pivot: 44,155.67
  • Key Levels: S1 44,013.33, S2 43,927.67, R1 44,241.33, R2 44,383.67
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 44,013.33 and 44,241.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,155.67 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 44,383.67 or below 43,927.67.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM):
  • Daily Pivot: 2,506.84
  • Key Levels: S1 2,473.44, S2 2,454.57, R1 2,525.71, R2 2,559.11
  • Bias: Neutral. This context is more suited for range-trading strategies between 2,473.44 and 2,525.71, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,506.84 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Only on confirmed breakouts beyond 2,559.11 or below 2,454.57.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments carries a high level of risk.