Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets - Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to this Wednesday's market update. The overarching sentiment as we approach the open remains somewhat mixed, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across major equity indices. We are observing ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows, indicating a discerning market environment.

US Index Futures:

• US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are currently showing a marginal positive bias, hovering around +0.03% in pre-market trading. This muted upward lean suggests a cautious start to the session.
• Traders are advised to remain vigilant for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, as these levels may prove pivotal in determining intraday direction given the current low conviction environment.

Pre-Market Tone & Key Drivers:

The pre-market tone reflects an anticipation of fresh macro catalysts, with market participants largely adopting a tactical approach. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is situated at intermediate levels, suggesting that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress.

Currency markets, particularly the EURUSD, maintain a neutral bias, with its movements closely tied to the evolving differential between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policies, as well as upcoming inflation and labor data. These macro inputs will continue to exert a significant influence on broader market sentiment and asset allocation decisions throughout the week.

Top Movers & Tactical Focus:

While specific top movers are yet to fully emerge in pre-market, the current landscape points towards continued selective trading. Investors are advised to focus on tactical opportunities around established support and resistance levels. Given the prevailing environment, the market remains highly sensitive to sudden headlines or unexpected developments, which could trigger swift shifts in sentiment and price action. Therefore, agile risk management and close monitoring of news flow will be paramount for today's trading session.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: December 17, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to your daily market briefing. As we approach mid-week, markets are exhibiting a cautious tone, with investors seeking fresh catalysts amid a relatively quiet macro landscape.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying a lack of strong directional conviction this morning. Movements remain contained, with investors largely focused on local news flow and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. We anticipate the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices to reflect this subdued sentiment, trading within narrow ranges as participants await fresh fundamental drivers.

Europe

European futures are showing limited movement, painting a largely neutral picture in early trading. The broader European market, including benchmark indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx, is currently in a holding pattern. Investors are patiently awaiting new macroeconomic and political catalysts that could provide a clearer directional bias for the region.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macro calendar, while of moderate overall significance, does feature several publications capable of influencing sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets:

• Morning: The focus for the European session will be on key confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local updates from individual member states. These releases could offer insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States this afternoon. Depending on the specific daily schedule, we expect data releases pertaining to inflation, labor markets, or broader economic activity. These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD currency pair and provide significant direction for US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, market participants should monitor any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, statistics on financial conditions will be important to track, as these could potentially lead to spikes in volatility.

Stay tuned for further updates as the trading day unfolds.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels Snapshot - December 17, 2025

Welcome to today's Morning Markets update, focusing on key technical levels for major assets after yesterday's trading session. Market participants will be closely watching these pivotal points for potential breakouts or reversals.

Commodities

Gold (XAUUSD / GC): Gold experienced a moderately bullish session yesterday, closing at 4,353.70 within the central part of its daily range. The classic pivot point for today is set at 4,352.67. Key support levels are identified at S1 4,331.73 and S2 4,309.77, while resistance levels are found at R1 4,374.63 and R2 4,395.57.

WTI Crude (CL): Crude oil also saw a moderately bullish close, finishing at 55.97, notably in the upper part of its daily trading range. The central pivot stands at 55.71. Immediate support lies at S1 55.34, with further support at S2 54.70. Resistance is marked at R1 56.35 and R2 56.72.

Forex

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways yesterday, closing at 1.1710 towards the lower end of its intraday range. The pivot point for today is 1.1725. Key support levels are S1 1.1693 and S2 1.1677, with resistance levels at R1 1.1741 and R2 1.1773.

Equity Indices

Nasdaq 100 (NDX): The Nasdaq 100 concluded yesterday's session largely sideways but with a strong close at 25,132.94, situated in the upper portion of its daily range. The daily pivot is 25,081.55. Traders will monitor S1 support at 24,974.33 and R1 resistance at 25,240.15. Further levels include S2 24,815.73 and R2 25,347.37.

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 mirrored the Nasdaq's largely lateral movement, closing at 6,800.26 in the upper part of its daily range. The pivot for today is 6,793.09. Critical support is found at S1 6,766.91, and resistance at R1 6,826.44. Secondary levels are S2 6,733.56 and R2 6,852.62.

DAX (DE40 / GER40): The German DAX experienced a moderately bearish session, closing at 24,076.87, around the midpoint of its daily range. The pivotal point is 24,093.42. Key support levels are S1 23,995.25 and S2 23,913.62, while resistance stands at R1 24,175.05 and R2 24,273.22.

FTSE MIB: Italy's FTSE MIB traded largely sideways, closing at 43,990.00, settling in the lower portion of its daily range. The daily pivot is 44,113.67. Immediate support is at S1 43,860.33, with resistance at R1 44,243.33. Additional levels include S2 43,730.67 and R2 44,496.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT): The Russell 2000 index also saw a substantially lateral session, closing at 2,519.30 in the middle of its daily range. The pivot point for today is 2,520.82. Key support is located at S1 2,505.03, and resistance at R1 2,535.10. Secondary levels are S2 2,490.75 and R2 2,550.89.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

Good morning and welcome to your market briefing. Today, we'll delve into the current volatility landscape, with a focus on equity risk and cross-asset dynamics, alongside key movements in the U.S. Dollar and bond markets.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Term-Structure Insights

Equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500), currently stands at approximately 16.5%. This level is broadly in line with its recent average, suggesting no overt signs of extreme fear or complacency amongst market participants at present. Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is trading around 20.2%, also aligning with its recent historical mean.

A deeper dive into the relationship between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500 reveals an interesting dynamic. While the 10-day realized volatility for the SPX is considerably lower at approximately 7.4%, the VIX's implied volatility of 16.5% indicates a substantial risk premium. This elevated premium suggests that options traders are pricing in significantly higher future volatility compared to what has been observed over the short-term past, pointing to a cautious sentiment beneath the surface.

Across other asset classes, volatility metrics also appear subdued relative to extremes. GVZ (Gold Volatility) is around 20.2%, and OVX (Oil Volatility) is at approximately 36.2%. Both are in line with their recent averages, reinforcing the view that there isn't an evident excess of fear or complacency across these key commodities.

U.S. Dollar Performance

The U.S. Dollar has seen modest movements overnight. The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading marginally lower this morning, consolidating recent gains. Investors continue to monitor incoming economic data and central bank commentary for clues on future monetary policy, which remains a primary driver for currency markets.

Bond Yields

In the fixed income markets, U.S. Treasury yields have shown some fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering around 4.17%, after experiencing a slight uptick in yesterday's trading session. This movement reflects ongoing investor assessment of inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's potential path for interest rates in the coming months. The shorter end of the curve, particularly the 2-year Treasury yield, also remains under scrutiny, given its sensitivity to monetary policy expectations.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

The daily pivot for Gold is set at 4,352.77.

Key support levels are identified at S1 4,331.93 and S2 4,309.87. Resistances are found at R1 4,374.83 and R2 4,395.67.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting a suitable environment for range-trading strategies between 4,331.93 and 4,374.83, or market-neutral optional structures centered around the 4,352.77 pivot.

Directional triggers would only activate upon confirmed breakouts beyond 4,395.67 or below 4,309.87.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude's daily pivot is established at 55.71.

Support levels are marked at S1 55.32 and S2 54.70. Resistance levels are at R1 56.33 and R2 56.72.

A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading strategies within the 55.32 to 56.33 band, or market-neutral optional structures around the 55.71 pivot.

Confirmed directional movements are anticipated only if prices break decisively above 56.72 or below 54.70.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD pair has a daily pivot at 1.1725.

Support levels are seen at S1 1.1693 and S2 1.1677. Resistance levels are at R1 1.1741 and R2 1.1773.

With a neutral bias, the current context supports range-trading strategies between 1.1693 and 1.1741, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1725 pivot.

Directional triggers will be in play only with confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1773 or below 1.1677.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100's daily pivot is at 25,081.55.

Key support levels are S1 24,974.33 and S2 24,815.73. Resistances are found at R1 25,240.15 and R2 25,347.37.

The bias remains neutral, suggesting conditions are ripe for range-trading between 24,974.33 and 25,240.15, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 25,081.55 pivot.

Directional moves are expected only on confirmed breaches above 25,347.37 or below 24,815.73.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500's daily pivot is positioned at 6,793.09.

Support levels are set at S1 6,766.91 and S2 6,733.56. Resistance levels are at R1 6,826.44 and R2 6,852.62.

A neutral bias indicates the market is suited for range-trading between 6,766.91 and 6,826.44, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,793.09 pivot.

Confirmed directional breakouts are key, occurring above 6,852.62 or below 6,733.56.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX has a daily pivot point at 24,093.42.

Support levels are at S1 23,995.25 and S2 23,913.62. Resistance levels are found at R1 24,175.05 and R2 24,273.22.

With a neutral bias, the current environment is conducive to range-trading between 23,995.25 and 24,175.05, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 24,093.42 pivot.

Expect directional triggers only on confirmed breakouts above 24,273.22 or below 23,913.62.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is at 44,113.67.

Support levels are identified at S1 43,860.33 and S2 43,730.67. Resistance levels are at R1 44,243.33 and R2 44,496.67.

A neutral bias suggests a context for range-trading between 43,860.33 and 44,243.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,113.67 pivot.

Directional moves are anticipated upon confirmed breaches above 44,496.67 or below 43,730.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 has its daily pivot at 2,520.82.

Support levels are at S1 2,505.03 and S2 2,490.75. Resistance levels are at R1 2,535.10 and R2 2,550.89.

With a neutral bias, the market is currently suitable for range-trading between 2,505.03 and 2,535.10, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 2,520.82 pivot.

Confirmed directional triggers will occur only if prices move decisively above 2,550.89 or below 2,490.75.

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Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data considered reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.