Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Global markets are exhibiting a mixed tone this Tuesday morning, with equity indices lacking a strong directional conviction. We are observing continued sectoral rotations and selective capital flows as investors navigate the current landscape.

US Index Futures:

• US500 and NAS100 futures are indicating a marginal positive bias, currently trading around +0.03%.
• Attention remains on potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, suggesting a cautious approach to intraday movements.

Pre-Market Tone:

The pre-market sentiment is characterized by a "wait-and-see" approach. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is at intermediate levels, indicating a moderate pricing of tactical correction risks but without signs of systemic stress. This suggests that while individual names or sectors may experience significant moves, the broader market is not under immediate pressure.

Top Movers & Tactical Focus:

In the absence of strong overarching market catalysts, today's session is likely to see activity driven by company-specific news or technical triggers. We anticipate selective flows continuing, with particular attention to equities demonstrating strong technical setups or reacting to earnings reports and industry-specific headlines. Traders are advised to focus on tactical operations around established support and resistance levels, remaining alert to any sudden news developments that could prompt rapid shifts in market sentiment or lead to specific sector outperformance or underperformance. The market awaits fresh macro catalysts to provide clearer direction, making today's trading highly tactical.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update – December 17, 2025

Good morning and welcome to your daily market briefing. As we enter Tuesday's trading, global markets are showing a nuanced picture with investors closely monitoring regional developments and upcoming economic data.

Asia
Asian markets are exhibiting a lack of strong directional conviction this morning, with movements remaining contained. Investor attention is largely centered on local news flows and forthcoming economic data from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are reflecting this cautious sentiment, trading without significant momentum as participants await fresh catalysts.

Europe
European futures are largely unmoved in early trading, suggesting a neutral opening for benchmark indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx 50. The current market framework appears balanced, with investors holding off on significant positions as they anticipate new macro-economic or political catalysts that could provide a clearer direction.

Macro Calendar (CET)
Today's macro calendar, while of moderate overall relevance, features several publications that hold the potential to influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The focus will be on confidence and production indicators released from the Eurozone, along with various local updates across the continent. These reports will offer insights into the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts across the Atlantic, where the United States will release key data relating to inflation, labor, or overall economic activity. Depending on the specific release, these figures could prove pivotal for the EURUSD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, coupled with statistics on financial conditions, should be closely monitored. These events have the potential to induce volatility spikes across various asset classes.

Investors are advised to remain vigilant as these releases unfold throughout the trading day.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - December 16, 2025

Good morning. Below is an overview of key technical levels for major financial instruments, calculated based on yesterday's closing data (December 15, 2025).

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a largely sideways session yesterday, closing in the lower part of its daily range. The closing price was 4,312.90, with a daily range between 4,297.40 and 4,345.30.

• Pivot (P): 4,318.53
• Support 1 (S1): 4,291.77
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,339.67
• Support 2 (S2): 4,270.63
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,366.43

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude saw a moderately bearish session, with prices closing in the central part of the daily range. Yesterday's close was 56.49, within a range of 56.32 to 56.70.

• Pivot (P): 56.50
• Support 1 (S1): 56.31
• Resistance 1 (R1): 56.69
• Support 2 (S2): 56.12
• Resistance 2 (R2): 56.88

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair traded in a largely sideways fashion yesterday, closing in the central part of its daily range. It closed at 1.1755, with the daily range spanning from 1.1750 to 1.1763.

• Pivot (P): 1.1756
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1749
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1762
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1742
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1770

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a moderately bearish session, with the index closing towards the lower end of its daily range. The close was 25,067.27, after trading between 25,022.81 and 25,377.62.

• Pivot (P): 25,155.90
• Support 1 (S1): 24,934.18
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,288.99
• Support 2 (S2): 24,801.09
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,510.71

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 witnessed a largely sideways session, concluding in the lower part of its daily trading range. The index closed at 6,816.51, with yesterday's range being 6,801.49 to 6,861.59.

• Pivot (P): 6,826.53
• Support 1 (S1): 6,791.47
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,851.57
• Support 2 (S2): 6,766.43
• Resistance 2 (R2): 6,886.63

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX traded in a largely sideways pattern, closing in the central part of its daily range. It closed at 24,229.91, with the day's range from 24,170.45 to 24,318.30.

• Pivot (P): 24,239.55
• Support 1 (S1): 24,160.81
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,308.66
• Support 2 (S2): 24,091.70
• Resistance 2 (R2): 24,387.40

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB experienced a moderately bullish session, finishing in the upper part of its daily range. The closing price was 44,117.00, with a daily range between 43,725.00 and 44,202.00.

• Pivot (P): 44,014.67
• Support 1 (S1): 43,827.33
• Resistance 1 (R1): 44,304.33
• Support 2 (S2): 43,537.67
• Resistance 2 (R2): 44,491.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 had a moderately bearish session, closing in the lower portion of its daily range. The index ended the day at 2,530.67, after trading within a range of 2,529.37 to 2,567.46.

• Pivot (P): 2,542.50
• Support 1 (S1): 2,517.54
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,555.63
• Support 2 (S2): 2,504.41
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,580.59

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility, USD, and Bond Yields in Focus

As Tuesday's trading commences, market participants are closely monitoring volatility metrics, currency movements, and bond yields for insights into the current risk landscape and future monetary policy trajectory.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Cross-Asset View

In the equity markets, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 stands around 16.5%, aligning with its recent average. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100's VXN is at approximately 20.7%, indicating no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency in tech-heavy indices. Broader cross-asset volatility gauges also appear to be in line with recent averages, with Gold's GVZ at ~21.2% and Oil's OVX at ~32.8%.

A notable divergence exists between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500. While the 10-day realized volatility is around 7.5%, the VIX, representing 30-day implied volatility, is significantly higher at approximately 16.5%. This substantial premium suggests that options markets are pricing in a considerably higher risk for future price movements compared to recent historical fluctuations, reflecting an elevated risk premium. This premium is typical, as implied volatility tends to exceed realized volatility due to compensation for option sellers taking on future uncertainty.

From a cross-asset perspective, recent weeks have highlighted a growing divergence, with US equities showing a rotation away from concentrated growth trades, particularly as AI-linked names face pressure amid an increasingly uncertain outlook and rising capital expenditure concerns.

US Dollar (USD) Performance

The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a marginal uptick to 98.2657 today, rising 0.01% from the previous session. However, this recent move comes against a backdrop of broader weakness, with the DXY having depreciated by 1.33% over the past month and a more substantial 8.13% over the last 12 months. The DXY has trended lower throughout 2025, declining 9.1% year-to-date, pushing the index near two-month lows.

The Federal Reserve's policy actions, including three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December 2025—bringing the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%—have materially reduced the dollar's yield advantage. Looking ahead, the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, due today, is expected to provide critical insights into the US labor market and will be a crucial factor in shaping the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy for 2026. Analysts suggest that a stronger-than-expected report could lead to a rapid unwinding of dovish expectations, potentially causing a sudden jump in the dollar's value.

Bond Yields

US Treasury yields have shown mixed movements. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note eased slightly to 4.17% today, a 0.01 percentage point decrease from yesterday's session. However, it has edged up by 0.03 points over the past month. As of December 12, the 10-year note was at 4.19%, the 2-year at 3.52%, and the 30-year at 4.85%.

The US yield curve has notably steepened to a new 2025 extreme, with the 2-year/10-year spread closing above 66 basis points, marking its steepest level since early 2022. Long-dated US Treasuries are currently under pressure. Earlier last week, Treasury yields moved higher, influenced by rising yields in Japan, robust JOLTS job openings data, and market concerns about a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve stance in the coming year. Despite these pressures, the broader outlook for 2026 continues to suggest expectations of additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Welcome to our Morning Markets update, providing a detailed tactical playbook for intraday and multi-day trading scenarios. Today's analysis focuses on key assets, outlining pivot points, support and resistance levels, and actionable strategies based on current market biases.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,318.67
• Support Levels: S1 at 4,292.03, S2 at 4,270.77
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 4,339.93, R2 at 4,366.57
• Bias: Neutral. The current environment favors range-trading strategies between 4,292.03 and 4,339.93, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,318.67 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,366.57 or below 4,270.77 would signal directional opportunities.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 56.51
• Support Levels: S1 at 56.31, S2 at 56.13
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 56.69, R2 at 56.89
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading approach between 56.31 and 56.69 is suitable, as are market-neutral optional structures near the 56.51 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Directional moves are anticipated only on confirmed breakouts beyond 56.89 or below 56.13.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1756
• Support Levels: S1 at 1.1749, S2 at 1.1742
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1762, R2 at 1.1770
• Bias: Neutral. The context is best suited for range-trading strategies between 1.1749 and 1.1762, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1756 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1770 or below 1.1742 will act as directional triggers.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,155.90
• Support Levels: S1 at 24,934.18, S2 at 24,801.09
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,288.99, R2 at 25,510.71
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 24,934.18 and 25,288.99, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,155.90 pivot, are advisable.
• Directional Triggers: Directional plays should await confirmed breakouts above 25,510.71 or below 24,801.09.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,826.53
• Support Levels: S1 at 6,791.47, S2 at 6,766.43
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,851.57, R2 at 6,886.63
• Bias: Neutral. The current setup is suitable for range-trading between 6,791.47 and 6,851.57, or market-neutral optional structures centered around the 6,826.53 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 6,886.63 or below 6,766.43 are required for directional conviction.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,239.55
• Support Levels: S1 at 24,160.81, S2 at 24,091.70
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,308.66, R2 at 24,387.40
• Bias: Neutral. We recommend range-trading strategies between 24,160.81 and 24,308.66, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,239.55 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Look for confirmed breakouts above 24,387.40 or below 24,091.70 to establish a directional bias.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,014.67
• Support Levels: S1 at 43,827.33, S2 at 43,537.67
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 44,304.33, R2 at 44,491.67
• Bias: Neutral. The environment supports range-trading between 43,827.33 and 44,304.33, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 44,014.67 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 44,491.67 or below 43,537.67 will serve as directional triggers.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,542.50
• Support Levels: S1 at 2,517.54, S2 at 2,504.41
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,555.63, R2 at 2,580.59
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 2,517.54 and 2,555.63, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,542.50 pivot, are indicated.
• Directional Triggers: Directional opportunities will emerge upon confirmed breakouts above 2,580.59 or below 2,504.41.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leverage involves a high level of risk.