Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: US Futures Indicate Modest Gains Amidst Tactical Trading

Overall market sentiment is characterized by a mixed environment this Monday, December 15, 2025. Equity indices are largely lacking strong directional conviction, with market activity driven by ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows.

US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are showing a modest average positive bias of +0.03 in pre-market trading. Traders are closely monitoring recent highs and lows for potential breakouts or fakeouts, indicating a cautious stance despite the slight uptick.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains at intermediate levels, suggesting that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress. The overall pre-market tone reflects a "wait-and-see" approach, with market participants awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts to provide clearer direction.

Against this backdrop, today's trading is expected to be highly tactical. Focus remains on identifying key support and resistance levels across various instruments, with particular attention to potential sudden headlines that could trigger swift movements. Individual stock performance and selective flows are anticipated to dominate trading activity as the market seeks fresh impetus.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update - Monday, December 15, 2025

Good morning, investors. As we commence the trading week, global markets are exhibiting a rather cautious stance, with no strong directional conviction evident across major regions.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying a lack of strong directional movement this morning. Activity remains contained, with investors largely focused on local news developments and upcoming economic data releases from China and Japan. We anticipate continued sensitivity to these regional catalysts, which may influence indices such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng throughout the session.

Europe

European futures are showing minimal movement in early trading. The overarching sentiment remains neutral, as market participants await fresh macroeconomic or political catalysts. Key European indices, including the DAX and EuroStoxx, are expected to reflect this holding pattern as the trading day progresses, with any significant shifts likely tied to new information rather than current momentum.

Macroeconomic Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar is of moderate significance, though several publications could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange:

• Morning: Focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates across European economies.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States, with data releases covering inflation, employment, or activity (depending on the specific day). These figures will be crucial in shaping movements for the EUR/USD exchange rate and major US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (December 15, 2025)

Good morning, traders. As we commence trading on Monday, December 15, 2025, a review of yesterday's closing data reveals mixed performance across key assets. Gold recorded a clearly bullish session, closing near its daily highs, while crude oil experienced a largely sideways movement. Equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, saw bearish sessions, with closes in the lower part of their respective ranges. The S&P 500 also exhibited a moderately bearish tone. The EUR/USD, DAX, and FTSE MIB largely traded sideways, with the currency pair and European indices closing towards the lower end of their daily ranges. Below are the key technical levels to watch for today's trading.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,373.70
• Yesterday's Range: 4,308.30 – 4,348.60
• Context: Gold concluded yesterday with a clearly bullish session, closing in the upper portion of its daily trading range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 4,343.53
  • Support 1 (S1): 4,338.47
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 4,378.77
  • Support 2 (S2): 4,303.23
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 4,383.83

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 57.72
• Yesterday's Range: 57.38 – 57.80
• Context: WTI Crude saw a largely sideways session, with the price closing in the upper part of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 57.63
  • Support 1 (S1): 57.47
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 57.89
  • Support 2 (S2): 57.21
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 58.05

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1736
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1732 – 1.1752
• Context: The EUR/USD pair experienced a largely sideways session, concluding in the lower portion of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 1.1740
  • Support 1 (S1): 1.1727
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1748
  • Support 2 (S2): 1.1719
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1761

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,196.73
• Yesterday's Range: 25,104.68 – 25,605.88
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 recorded a clearly bearish session, closing firmly in the lower part of its daily trading range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 25,302.43
  • Support 1 (S1): 24,998.98
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 25,500.18
  • Support 2 (S2): 24,801.23
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 25,803.62

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,827.41
• Yesterday's Range: 6,801.79 – 6,899.85
• Context: The S&P 500 experienced a moderately bearish session, with its closing price situated in the lower end of the daily range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 6,843.02
  • Support 1 (S1): 6,786.18
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 6,884.24
  • Support 2 (S2): 6,744.96
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 6,941.08

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,186.49
• Yesterday's Range: 24,173.28 – 24,474.62
• Context: The DAX concluded a largely sideways session, with its closing level in the lower part of the daily range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 24,278.13
  • Support 1 (S1): 24,081.64
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 24,382.98
  • Support 2 (S2): 23,976.79
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 24,579.47

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 43,513.95
• Yesterday's Range: 43,491.52 – 44,049.63
• Context: The FTSE MIB traded largely sideways yesterday, closing towards the lower end of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 43,685.03
  • Support 1 (S1): 43,320.44
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 43,878.55
  • Support 2 (S2): 43,126.92
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 44,243.14

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,551.46
• Yesterday's Range: 2,548.81 – 2,595.98
• Context: The Russell 2000 experienced a clearly bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily trading range.
• Classic Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 2,565.42
  • Support 1 (S1): 2,534.85
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 2,582.02
  • Support 2 (S2): 2,518.25
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 2,612.59

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Macro Drivers

Volatility across major asset classes remains a key focus for investors as the week begins.

The VIX (S&P 500) currently sits at approximately 15.7%, registering below its 20-day average. This contained level of implied volatility suggests a potentially favorable environment for controlled carry and short volatility strategies. However, a closer look at the realized vs. implied volatility for the S&P 500 (SPX) reveals an interesting dynamic. With 10-day realized volatility around 7.9% and the VIX at 15.7%, the implied volatility priced by the VIX is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility. This considerable premium suggests an elevated risk premium in the market.

Looking at cross-asset volatility: * The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is around 20.6%, aligning with its recent average, indicating no significant excess of fear or complacency in tech-heavy indices. * GVZ (Gold) volatility is approximately 21.5%, also in line with its recent average, suggesting a balanced sentiment for the precious metal. * OVX (Oil) volatility is near 29.9%, consistent with its recent average, implying no extreme shifts in energy market sentiment.

Turning to macro drivers, the US Dollar (USD) has shown mixed movements. After a recent strong performance, the DXY index saw a slight dip in late trading last week, but the overall trend continues to reflect ongoing interest rate differentials and economic sentiment. Market participants are closely watching for any new catalysts that could shift the dollar's trajectory.

In the bond markets, US Treasury yields have experienced fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering around 4.21%, reflecting market expectations regarding future monetary policy and inflation. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, coupled with upcoming economic data releases, will continue to dictate movements in bond yields and, by extension, influence equity market valuations and currency strength. Investors will be keenly observing any commentary from central bank officials and incoming inflation reports for further guidance.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Monday

Good morning and welcome to today's market update. As we kick off the week, a prevailing neutral bias characterizes several key assets, suggesting a focus on range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures around their respective daily pivots. Traders should monitor confirmed breakouts or breakdowns for potential directional triggers.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,343.53
• Supports: S1 at 4,338.47, S2 at 4,303.23
• Resistances: R1 at 4,378.77, R2 at 4,383.83
• Bias: Neutral, favoring range-trading between 4,338.47 and 4,378.77, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 4,343.53.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 4,383.83 or breakdown below 4,303.23.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 57.63
• Supports: S1 at 57.47, S2 at 57.21
• Resistances: R1 at 57.89, R2 at 58.05
• Bias: Neutral, suggesting range-trading between 57.47 and 57.89, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 57.63.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 58.05 or breakdown below 57.21.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1739
• Supports: S1 at 1.1727, S2 at 1.1719
• Resistances: R1 at 1.1747, R2 at 1.1760
• Bias: Neutral, suited for range-trading between 1.1727 and 1.1747, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 1.1739.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 1.1760 or breakdown below 1.1719.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,302.43
• Supports: S1 at 24,998.98, S2 at 24,801.23
• Resistances: R1 at 25,500.18, R2 at 25,803.62
• Bias: Neutral, ideal for range-trading between 24,998.98 and 25,500.18, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 25,302.43.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 25,803.62 or breakdown below 24,801.23.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,843.02
• Supports: S1 at 6,786.18, S2 at 6,744.96
• Resistances: R1 at 6,884.24, R2 at 6,941.08
• Bias: Neutral, suggesting range-trading between 6,786.18 and 6,884.24, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 6,843.02.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 6,941.08 or breakdown below 6,744.96.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,278.13
• Supports: S1 at 24,081.64, S2 at 23,976.79
• Resistances: R1 at 24,382.98, R2 at 24,579.47
• Bias: Neutral, suitable for range-trading between 24,081.64 and 24,382.98, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 24,278.13.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 24,579.47 or breakdown below 23,976.79.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 43,685.03
• Supports: S1 at 43,320.44, S2 at 43,126.92
• Resistances: R1 at 43,878.55, R2 at 44,243.14
• Bias: Neutral, implying range-trading between 43,320.44 and 43,878.55, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 43,685.03.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 44,243.14 or breakdown below 43,126.92.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,565.42
• Supports: S1 at 2,534.85, S2 at 2,518.25
• Resistances: R1 at 2,582.02, R2 at 2,612.59
• Bias: Neutral, favoring range-trading between 2,534.85 and 2,582.02, or market-neutral options around the pivot of 2,565.42.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakout above 2,612.59 or breakdown below 2,518.25.

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.