Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: A Look Ahead on December 15, 2025

The market sentiment remains mixed as we approach the new trading week, with major equity indices lacking a strong directional conviction. We observe ongoing sectoral rotations and highly selective capital flows, indicating a cautious approach from investors.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone US index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, show a slight positive bias of +0.03. This marginal uplift suggests a tentatively optimistic, but highly tactical, pre-market tone as participants position for the week ahead. Attention will be sharply focused on potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent significant highs and lows, which could dictate short-term direction. The general pre-market atmosphere points to a market awaiting fresh macro catalysts, making tactical plays on established support and resistance levels crucial.

Focus Areas & Potential "Movers" While specific "top movers" are not identifiable on a Sunday, the context of sectoral rotations suggests that areas benefiting from selective flows will be key. Investors should monitor sectors that have recently shown resilience or are poised for growth based on economic narratives. The absence of a strong systemic bias implies that individual company news or sector-specific developments could lead to pronounced movements, acting as the week's de facto "movers."

Other Key Market Observations * FX Markets: EURUSD maintains a neutral bias. Its trajectory continues to be primarily influenced by the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data. * Commodities: Both Gold and WTI Crude Oil are exhibiting neutral biases. Flows in these markets reflect a blend of broader macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects. * Volatility: The VIX remains at intermediate levels, signaling a moderate pricing of tactical correction risks. Importantly, the market does not appear to be pricing in significant systemic stress at this juncture.

Tactical Outlook Overall, the market is poised for a week where new macro catalysts will be essential for breaking current consolidation patterns. The operational focus remains highly tactical, emphasizing trades around defined support and resistance zones. Market participants must also remain vigilant for any sudden headline news that could trigger swift, localized reactions.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Overview

Good morning, and welcome to our weekly market update. As we head into a new trading week, investors are keenly observing a mix of global cues and upcoming economic data.

Asia

• Asian markets generally displayed limited directional strength in recent sessions, with movements largely contained as investors focused on local news and key economic data from China and Japan. The Nikkei and Hang Seng are anticipated to reflect this cautious sentiment as trading commences, with a continued focus on regional economic indicators.

Europe

• European futures are indicating a subdued start to the week, suggesting a neutral landscape as market participants await fresh macroeconomic and political catalysts. Key indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx will be closely watched for any significant shifts in sentiment, with market participants looking for clear drivers.

Macro Calendar - Week Ahead

• The upcoming week features a moderate, yet potentially impactful, macroeconomic calendar, with several publications poised to influence sentiment across equity indices and foreign exchange markets.
• Early in the week, attention will be on **confidence and production indicators** from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These releases could offer fresh insights into the region's economic health.
• Mid-week, key **U.S. data** pertaining to inflation, employment, or broader economic activity will be crucial. These releases are particularly significant for the EUR/USD exchange rate and overall U.S. equity indices, potentially driving market direction.
• Towards the end of the week, potential **speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) members** should be closely monitored. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions will be watched for possible volatility spikes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - December 14, 2025

As markets open for the week, investors will be closely monitoring key technical levels across major assets. Yesterday's trading sessions saw a mixed performance, with several instruments exhibiting sideways consolidation, while US indices experienced notable downward pressure. Below are the crucial technical insights based on yesterday's closing data.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday's session at 4,300.10, having traded within a range of 4,286.00 – 4,387.80. The session was largely lateral, with the precious metal closing in the lower part of its daily range. Key pivot levels for the upcoming session are: Pivot Point (P) at 4,324.63, with immediate supports at S1 4,261.47 and S2 4,222.83. Resistances are identified at R1 4,363.27 and R2 4,426.43.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended yesterday at 57.44, after a largely lateral session that saw prices fluctuate between 57.15 and 58.19, closing near the lower end of this range. The central pivot for WTI Crude is 57.59. Support levels are established at S1 57.00 and S2 56.55, while resistance levels are found at R1 58.04 and R2 58.63.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1739, following a largely sideways session that saw it trade between 1.1720 and 1.1747, ultimately settling in the upper part of its daily range. The daily pivot point is at 1.1735. Key support levels are S1 1.1724 and S2 1.1709. On the upside, resistance levels are R1 1.1751 and R2 1.1762.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a clearly bearish session, closing at 25,196.73, significantly lower within its daily range of 25,104.68 – 25,605.88. The pivot point is set at 25,302.43. Supports are noted at S1 24,998.98 and S2 24,801.23. Resistance levels are at R1 25,500.18 and R2 25,803.62.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 also saw a moderately bearish session, closing at 6,827.41 near the bottom of its 6,801.79 – 6,899.85 range. The pivot point for the S&P 500 is 6,843.02. Supports are at S1 6,786.18 and S2 6,744.96. Resistances are observed at R1 6,884.24 and R2 6,941.08.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed at 24,186.49 after a largely lateral session, ending in the lower portion of its daily range of 24,173.28 – 24,474.62. The main pivot is positioned at 24,278.13. Support levels are S1 24,081.64 and S2 23,976.79. Resistance levels are found at R1 24,382.98 and R2 24,579.47.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded its session at 43,513.95, having traded laterally within the range of 43,491.52 – 44,049.63, with a close in the lower part of this range. The pivot point is 43,685.03. Supports are marked at S1 43,320.44 and S2 43,126.92. Resistances are set at R1 43,878.55 and R2 44,243.14.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

Similar to its large-cap counterparts, the Russell 2000 experienced a clearly bearish session, closing at 2,551.46, towards the lower end of its 2,548.81 – 2,595.98 range. The pivot point for the Russell 2000 is 2,565.42. Supports are at S1 2,534.85 and S2 2,518.25. Resistances are found at R1 2,582.02 and R2 2,612.59.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Commentary

As we head into the new trading week, market participants are digesting the latest movements in volatility, currency, and fixed income markets. The overarching theme from the close of last week suggests a nuanced environment, with contained equity volatility but rising bond yields reflecting differing monetary policy expectations globally.

Volatility Landscape

• VIX (S&P 500): The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, for the S&P 500 settled around 15.7% at the end of last week, remaining below its 20-day average. This indicates a relatively subdued level of implied volatility in the broad equity market, creating a potentially favorable backdrop for controlled carry and short volatility strategies.
• Cross-Asset Volatility: Other key volatility indices showed stability. The VXN (Nasdaq 100) was approximately 20.6%, in line with its recent average, suggesting no significant excess of fear or complacency within the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Similarly, GVZ (Gold) at around 21.5% and OVX (Oil) near 29.9% were both consistent with their recent averages, indicating a balanced sentiment across these commodities.
• Realized vs. Implied Volatility (SPX): A notable observation is the divergence between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500. With 10-day realized volatility at approximately 7.9% compared to the VIX's ~15.7%, the implied volatility priced in by the VIX is significantly above the recent realized volatility. This elevated risk premium suggests that options markets are pricing in a much higher potential for future price swings than has been observed recently.
• Data Availability: Data for EVZ (EURUSD) and VDAX (DAX) were unavailable due to feed or historical data issues.

Currency Markets: Focus on USD

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) saw a slight increase on Friday, December 12, rising 0.05% to 98.3930 from the previous session. Despite this daily gain, the DXY was on track for its third consecutive weekly decline and has weakened 0.77% over the past month, registering an 8.05% drop over the last 12 months. The dollar index hovered near two-month lows, with this broad weakness attributed in part to a larger-than-expected Federal Reserve rate cut and investors reassessing the outlook for rate adjustments in 2026. Against this backdrop, the euro gained against the weaker dollar, with EURUSD stabilizing around the 1.1700 level. The British pound also showed strength, trading near a seven-week high against the dollar.

Fixed Income: Bond Yields

In fixed income markets, both U.S. Treasury and German Bund yields saw upward movements by the close of the week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.18% or 4.19% on December 12, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the prior session. The 10-year yield climbed 0.056 percentage point over the week to 4.194%, reaching its highest level since early September. This increase extended a two-week streak of rising yields, accumulating a 0.176 percentage point gain over that period.

Concurrently, the German 10-year Bund yield also rose, hitting 2.86% on December 12, up 0.01 percentage point from the previous session. It nudged up by 1 basis point to 2.855% from 2.847%, climbing above 2.85% for the first time since March 2025. The Bund yield had risen 6 basis points over the week to its highest point since March on Wednesday. These movements are largely attributed to hawkish comments from a European Central Bank (ECB) official and growing concerns over fiscal sustainability, with markets beginning to price in the possibility of an ECB rate hike. The divergence in central bank rhetoric, with the Fed cutting rates and the ECB potentially considering hikes, continues to shape global bond market dynamics.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

As we head into the new trading week, market participants are advised to consider a neutral bias across major assets, with a focus on range-trading strategies around key pivot points. Directional triggers will require confirmed breakouts beyond defined support and resistance extremes.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,324.63
• Support Levels: S1 4,261.47, S2 4,222.83
• Resistance Levels: R1 4,363.27, R2 4,426.43
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 4,261.47 and 4,363.27, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 4,324.63.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 4,426.43 or below 4,222.83 would indicate directional triggers.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 57.59
• Support Levels: S1 57.00, S2 56.55
• Resistance Levels: R1 58.04, R2 58.63
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 57.00 and 58.04, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 57.59.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 58.63 or below 56.55 would indicate directional triggers.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1735
• Support Levels: S1 1.1724, S2 1.1709
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1751, R2 1.1762
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 1.1724 and 1.1751, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 1.1735.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1762 or below 1.1709 would indicate directional triggers.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,302.43
• Support Levels: S1 24,998.98, S2 24,801.23
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,500.18, R2 25,803.62
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 24,998.98 and 25,500.18, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 25,302.43.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 25,803.62 or below 24,801.23 would indicate directional triggers.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,843.02
• Support Levels: S1 6,786.18, S2 6,744.96
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,884.24, R2 6,941.08
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 6,786.18 and 6,884.24, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 6,843.02.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 6,941.08 or below 6,744.96 would indicate directional triggers.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,278.13
• Support Levels: S1 24,081.64, S2 23,976.79
• Resistance Levels: R1 24,382.98, R2 24,579.47
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 24,081.64 and 24,382.98, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 24,278.13.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 24,579.47 or below 23,976.79 would indicate directional triggers.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 43,685.03
• Support Levels: S1 43,320.44, S2 43,126.92
• Resistance Levels: R1 43,878.55, R2 44,243.14
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 43,320.44 and 43,878.55, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 43,685.03.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 44,243.14 or below 43,126.92 would indicate directional triggers.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,565.42
• Support Levels: S1 2,534.85, S2 2,518.25
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,582.02, R2 2,612.59
• Bias: Neutral
• Trading Strategy: The current context is best suited for range-trading between 2,534.85 and 2,582.02, or market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 2,565.42.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 2,612.59 or below 2,518.25 would indicate directional triggers.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.