Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Futures Edge Higher as Markets Await Fresh Catalysts

Markets are starting the weekend in a mixed context, with equity indices lacking strong directional conviction. We continue to observe distinct sector rotations and selective capital flows as investors position themselves for future developments.

US Index Futures: US500 and NAS100 futures are currently showing a slight positive bias, with an uptick of +0.03. The focus for traders remains keenly on potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, suggesting a tactical approach to market movements.

Pre-Market Tone & Tactical Focus: The overall pre-market tone is one of cautious anticipation. The VIX volatility index is holding at intermediate levels, indicating that while the market prices in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate sign of systemic stress.

With no major macro catalysts expected over the weekend, market participants are largely awaiting fresh economic data or geopolitical headlines to provide new direction. Consequently, the operational strategy remains highly tactical, with an emphasis on trading around established support and resistance levels. Vigilance for any sudden headlines is paramount, as these could quickly shift sentiment as we head into the new trading week.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: A Look Ahead

As the trading week concludes, global markets exhibit a cautious tone, with investors digesting recent movements and looking for fresh catalysts. The general sentiment remains neutral as we head into the weekend, with key data releases and central bank commentary anticipated for the upcoming week.

Asia

Asian markets concluded the week without a strong directional bias, showing limited movements across major indices. Investors in the region are primarily focused on local economic news and upcoming data releases from China and Japan. We anticipate continued attention on these regional indicators to provide clarity on market direction in the coming sessions, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng reflecting this measured approach.

Europe

European futures showed little movement, indicating a neutral outlook as the market awaits new macroeconomic or political catalysts. The subdued activity suggests a period of consolidation, with investors holding off on significant positioning ahead of key events next week. The DAX and EuroStoxx are likely to remain sensitive to any shifts in sentiment driven by fresh news.

Macro Calendar – Week Ahead (All times CET)

The upcoming macro calendar, while of moderate relevance, contains several publications that could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange. Traders and investors should pay close attention to the following:

• Early Week: Morning sessions will feature confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These releases will offer insights into the health of the European economy and could impact the direction of the EuroStoxx.
• Mid-Week: The afternoon will bring crucial data from the United States, including updates on inflation, labor, or economic activity, depending on the specific day. These figures will be pivotal for the EURUSD currency pair and US equity indices, potentially sparking significant market reactions.
• Late Week: Evening hours may see speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, statistics on financial conditions will be released. These events should be monitored closely for potential spikes in volatility across all asset classes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels Update

Below is an overview of key technical levels, including support, resistance, and intraday pivots, calculated on yesterday's closing data, updated to December 13, 2025.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,300.10. The session was largely sideways, with the closing price near the center of its daily range (4,260.00 – 4,355.00).

• Classic Pivot (P): 4,305.03
• Support 1 (S1): 4,255.07
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,350.07
• Support 2 (S2): 4,210.03
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,400.03

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude finished the trading day at 57.44. Yesterday saw largely sideways movement, with the closing price in the lower portion of its range (57.15 – 58.19).

• Classic Pivot (P): 57.59
• Support 1 (S1): 57.00
• Resistance 1 (R1): 58.04
• Support 2 (S2): 56.55
• Resistance 2 (R2): 58.63

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1739. The session was generally lateral, with the pair closing towards the upper end of its daily range (1.1720 – 1.1747).

• Classic Pivot (P): 1.1735
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1724
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1751
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1709
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1762

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 concluded yesterday at 25,196.73. The session was distinctly bearish, with the index closing at the lower end of its daily range (25,104.68 – 25,605.88).

• Classic Pivot (P): 25,302.43
• Support 1 (S1): 24,998.98
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,500.18
• Support 2 (S2): 24,801.23
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,803.62

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed at 6,827.41. Yesterday's session was moderately bearish, with the index finishing in the lower part of its daily range (6,801.79 – 6,899.85).

• Classic Pivot (P): 6,843.02
• Support 1 (S1): 6,786.18
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,884.24
• Support 2 (S2): 6,744.96
• Resistance 2 (R2): 6,941.08

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed at 24,186.49. The session was largely sideways, with the index closing towards the lower end of its range (24,173.28 – 24,474.62).

• Classic Pivot (P): 24,278.13
• Support 1 (S1): 24,081.64
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,382.98
• Support 2 (S2): 23,976.79
• Resistance 2 (R2): 24,579.47

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB finished yesterday at 43,513.95. The trading session was largely lateral, with the index closing in the lower part of its daily range (43,491.52 – 44,049.63).

• Classic Pivot (P): 43,685.03
• Support 1 (S1): 43,320.44
• Resistance 1 (R1): 43,878.55
• Support 2 (S2): 43,126.92
• Resistance 2 (R2): 44,243.14

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed yesterday at 2,551.46. The session was distinctly bearish, with the index closing in the lower portion of its daily range (2,548.81 – 2,595.98).

• Classic Pivot (P): 2,565.42
• Support 1 (S1): 2,534.85
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,582.02
• Support 2 (S2): 2,518.25
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,612.59

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Remains Subdued Amidst Shifting Macro Landscape

Global financial markets are navigating a period of contained volatility, even as participants monitor evolving central bank narratives and key economic indicators. While some cross-asset volatility metrics show equilibrium, underlying dynamics in the bond and currency markets suggest a cautious sentiment for the close of 2025.

Volatility Overview: Realized vs. Implied & Term Structure

• S&P 500 Volatility (VIX): The VIX currently sits at approximately 15.7%, registering below its 20-day average. This level of contained implied volatility generally signals a favorable environment for controlled carry and short volatility strategies. However, a notable divergence exists between implied and realized volatility for the S&P 500. With 10-day realized volatility around 7.9% versus a VIX of 15.7%, the implied volatility continues to price in a significantly higher risk premium.
• Cross-Asset Volatility: The VXN (Nasdaq 100) at approximately 20.6%, GVZ (Gold) at around 21.5%, and OVX (Oil) near 29.9% are all broadly in line with their recent averages. This consistency suggests an absence of excessive fear or complacency across these key asset classes, indicating a relatively balanced market sentiment.

USD and Bond Yields

The US dollar has been on a softer footing heading into December 2025, as markets increasingly anticipate a potential year-end rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This has contributed to an easing in bond yields, subsequently reducing the USD's carry advantage and allowing major and commodity-linked currencies to recover. Broader USD pressure is expected to persist into early 2026, influenced by modestly improving global growth expectations and stable commodity prices.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have shown some movement. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.18% on December 12, 2025, marking a slight increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the 10-year yield has edged up by 0.06 percentage points, although it remains lower than a year ago. Similarly, the yield on the US 30-year bond increased to 4.84% on December 12, 2025. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, the third consecutive 25 basis point reduction, has set the federal funds effective rate at 3.64% as of December 11, 2025. This easing monetary policy, combined with mixed economic signals including cooling labor markets and drifting inflation, underpins the current market environment.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As we head into the trading session, a neutral bias prevails across key assets, suggesting a context ripe for range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures. Traders should closely monitor the specified support and resistance levels for potential directional shifts.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 4,305.03
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 4,255.07 and 4,350.07
• Support Levels: S1 at 4,255.07, S2 at 4,210.03
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 4,350.07, R2 at 4,400.03
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (4,400.03) or below S2 (4,210.03) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.

WTI Crude (CL)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 57.59
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 57.00 and 58.04
• Support Levels: S1 at 57.00, S2 at 56.55
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 58.04, R2 at 58.63
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (58.63) or below S2 (56.55) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 1.1735
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 1.1724 and 1.1751
• Support Levels: S1 at 1.1724, S2 at 1.1709
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1751, R2 at 1.1762
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (1.1762) or below S2 (1.1709) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 25,302.43
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 24,998.98 and 25,500.18
• Support Levels: S1 at 24,998.98, S2 at 24,801.23
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,500.18, R2 at 25,803.62
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (25,803.62) or below S2 (24,801.23) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 6,843.02
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 6,786.18 and 6,884.24
• Support Levels: S1 at 6,786.18, S2 at 6,744.96
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,884.24, R2 at 6,941.08
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (6,941.08) or below S2 (6,744.96) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 24,278.13
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 24,081.64 and 24,382.98
• Support Levels: S1 at 24,081.64, S2 at 23,976.79
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,382.98, R2 at 24,579.47
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (24,579.47) or below S2 (23,976.79) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 43,685.03
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 43,320.44 and 43,878.55
• Support Levels: S1 at 43,320.44, S2 at 43,126.92
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 43,878.55, R2 at 44,243.14
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (44,243.14) or below S2 (43,126.92) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 2,565.42
• Key Range for Range-Trading: 2,534.85 and 2,582.02
• Support Levels: S1 at 2,534.85, S2 at 2,518.25
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,582.02, R2 at 2,612.59
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond R2 (2,612.59) or below S2 (2,518.25) would signal a directional shift.
• Recommended Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between S1 and R1, or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivot.