Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Friday, December 12, 2025

The pre-market tone for Friday, December 12, 2025, suggests a mixed sentiment across global markets, with investors exhibiting cautious optimism amidst economic data releases. Equity indices are largely without strong direction, characterized by selective flows and sectoral rotations as market participants await fresh macro catalysts.

US Index Futures:

US index futures indicate a subtly positive start to the trading day. Both the US500 and NAS100 futures show a mild upward bias of approximately +0.07. This follows Thursday's session where the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved record finishes, buoyed by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and a less hawkish outlook than anticipated. Today's movements are expected to be more tactical, with attention on breakout or fakeout opportunities around recent highs and lows.

Pre-Market Tone:

The overall pre-market tone reflects a market in anticipation. While a cautious optimism prevails, particularly in the forex markets, traders are keenly awaiting new macro catalysts to dictate significant directional moves. Operativity is focused on tactical plays around established support and resistance levels, with investors remaining alert to any sudden headline news that could impact sentiment. Elevated volatility, as indicated by the VIX, suggests that the market is paying for protection, yet without signs of extreme panic.

Top Movers:

Given the current mixed environment and selective flows, top movers in the pre-market are reflecting sector-specific rotations rather than broad-based momentum. Traders are selectively positioning in various segments, aligning with the broader theme of awaiting clear macroeconomic signals. While specific individual stock movements for today's pre-market are still developing, the general context points to active, but discerning, capital allocation.

Broader Market Observations:

• FX: EURUSD maintains a neutral bias. The currency pair remains primarily driven by the differential between Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policies, alongside incoming inflation and labor market data.
• Commodities: Both Gold and WTI crude oil exhibit a neutral bias. Their price movements are influenced by a combination of macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.
• Volatility: The VIX continues to trade at elevated levels compared to recent lows, indicating that the market is pricing in a degree of uncertainty. Despite this, there are no immediate signals of extreme market panic.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update – Friday, December 12, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to our Friday market briefing. Today, we observe a generally cautious sentiment across global markets, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets are exhibiting a lack of strong directional conviction this morning, with movements remaining contained. The focus remains on local news developments and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are trading without clear momentum as participants digest recent information.

Europe

European futures are showing limited movement, pointing to a neutral start for the session. The broader outlook remains subdued as investors await new macroeconomic and political catalysts to drive direction. Key indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx are likely to reflect this wait-and-see approach early in the day.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macro calendar is of moderate significance, but includes several publications that could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The European session will feature confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local economic updates. These releases may provide further insights into the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with releases pertaining to inflation, employment, or activity data (depending on the specific day's schedule). These figures will be crucial for the *EURUSD* currency pair and U.S. equity indices, potentially sparking volatility.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE) will be closely monitored. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions should be watched for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - Friday, December 12, 2025

As we head into Friday's trading, investors will be closely monitoring key technical levels across major asset classes. Yesterday's closing data, updated to December 12, 2025, provides crucial pivot points, supports, and resistances that could influence intraday movements.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,319.70
• Yesterday's Range: 4,295.50 – 4,320.20
• The yellow metal experienced a moderately bullish session, closing near the upper end of its daily range.
• The classic pivot point (P) is identified at 4,311.80.
• Initial support (S1) is found at 4,303.40, with a secondary support (S2) at 4,287.10.
• Resistance levels are set at 4,328.10 (R1) and 4,336.50 (R2).

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 57.90
• Yesterday's Range: 57.84 – 58.19
• WTI Crude also saw a moderately bullish session, although it closed in the lower portion of its daily range.
• The classic pivot point (P) for today is 57.98.
• Key support levels are located at 57.76 (S1) and 57.63 (S2).
• On the upside, resistances are at 58.11 (R1) and 58.33 (R2).

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1744
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1736 – 1.1750
• The EUR/USD pair traded largely sideways yesterday, concluding the session centrally within its daily range.
• The intraday pivot point (P) is at 1.1743.
• Support levels are noted at 1.1737 (S1) and 1.1729 (S2).
• Resistance levels for today are 1.1750 (R1) and 1.1757 (R2).

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,686.69
• Yesterday's Range: 25,372.18 – 25,696.29
• The Nasdaq 100 traded in a largely lateral fashion, closing towards the upper end of its daily range.
• The classic pivot point (P) is established at 25,585.05.
• Immediate support (S1) is at 25,473.82, with a deeper support (S2) at 25,260.94.
• Resistance levels are observed at 25,797.93 (R1) and 25,909.16 (R2).

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,901.00
• Yesterday's Range: 6,833.45 – 6,903.46
• Similar to the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 demonstrated a largely sideways session, also finishing in the upper part of its range.
• The central pivot point (P) is 6,879.30.
• Key supports lie at 6,855.15 (S1) and 6,809.29 (S2).
• Overhead resistances are found at 6,925.16 (R1) and 6,949.31 (R2).

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,294.61
• Yesterday's Range: 24,007.98 – 24,364.01
• The German DAX posted a moderately bullish performance, closing firmly in the upper half of its daily range.
• The calculated pivot point (P) for today is 24,222.20.
• Support levels are at 24,080.39 (S1) and 23,866.17 (S2).
• Resistance levels are seen at 24,436.42 (R1) and 24,578.23 (R2).

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 43,702.00
• Yesterday's Range: 43,310.00 – 43,853.00
• The FTSE MIB also registered a moderately bullish session, ending near its daily highs.
• The classic pivot point (P) for the Italian index is 43,621.67.
• Key supports are identified at 43,390.33 (S1) and 43,078.67 (S2).
• Resistance levels stand at 43,933.33 (R1) and 44,164.67 (R2).

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,590.61
• Yesterday's Range: 2,558.46 – 2,593.89
• The Russell 2000 exhibited a moderately bullish session, closing strong at the top of its daily range.
• The classic pivot point (P) is at 2,580.99.
• Support levels are marked at 2,568.08 (S1) and 2,545.56 (S2).
• Resistance levels are observed at 2,603.51 (R1) and 2,616.42 (R2).

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Landscape and Macro Outlook

Equity Volatility Remains Subdued, Implied Premium High

• The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 currently stands at approximately 14.9%, remaining below its 20-day average. This indicates a contained volatility environment, generally favoring controlled carry and short volatility strategies.
• Similarly, the VXN for the Nasdaq 100 is at about 18.4%, also below its 20-day average, suggesting a similar favorable backdrop for carry-oriented strategies.
• However, a notable divergence exists between realized and implied volatility for the S&P 500. With 10-day realized volatility around 5.9% and the VIX at 14.9%, the implied volatility priced into the VIX is significantly above the recent realized volatility. This indicates an elevated risk premium, suggesting option buyers are paying a substantial premium for future uncertainty despite current calm.

Cross-Asset Volatility Stable

• Gold's volatility, as measured by the GVZ, is approximately 21.0%, largely in line with its recent average. This suggests no clear extremes of fear or complacency in the precious metals market.
• Oil volatility (OVX) is also stable at around 31.9%, consistent with its recent average, indicating a balanced sentiment without significant spikes in either direction.

USD Strength Persists Amidst Firm Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has demonstrated resilience, hovering near 104.7 as of early December 2025, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and robust economic data. Despite some intraday fluctuations, the dollar has largely maintained its strength against major currencies, particularly the Euro and Japanese Yen, reflecting ongoing interest rate differentials and safe-haven demand.

Bond Yields Maintain Upward Pressure

Bond markets continue to reflect expectations of sustained higher-for-longer interest rates. The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading around 4.31%, with the 2-year yield at approximately 4.70%, maintaining an inverted yield curve. This inversion, alongside solid non-farm payroll data and persistent inflation concerns, continues to signal potential recessionary pressures ahead while supporting the dollar. European bond yields have followed a similar trajectory, with the German 10-year Bund yield around 2.65%, reflecting the broader global tightening cycle.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Friday's Intraday & Multiday Tactical Playbook

Welcome to Friday's Morning Markets analysis, focusing on key intraday and multiday tactical setups. Today's session presents a predominantly neutral bias across major assets, suggesting a context more suited for range-trading strategies and market-neutral optionality around established pivot points. Directional triggers remain contingent on confirmed breakouts beyond defined resistance or support levels.

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC)
  • Daily Pivot: 4,312.47
  • Support Levels: S1 4,303.93, S2 4,286.97
  • Resistance Levels: R1 4,329.43, R2 4,337.97
  • Bias: Neutral. The current context favors range-trading between 4,303.93 and 4,329.43, or employing market-neutral options structures around the 4,312.47 pivot. Directional triggers will only be confirmed on sustained breakouts above 4,337.97 or below 4,286.97.
• WTI Crude (CL)
  • Daily Pivot: 57.97
  • Support Levels: S1 57.75, S2 57.62
  • Resistance Levels: R1 58.10, R2 58.32
  • Bias: Neutral. Traders should consider range-trading between 57.75 and 58.10, or utilizing market-neutral options strategies centered on the 57.97 pivot. Confirmed directional moves are expected only beyond 58.32 to the upside or 57.62 to the downside.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E)
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1743
  • Support Levels: S1 1.1736, S2 1.1729
  • Resistance Levels: R1 1.1749, R2 1.1756
  • Bias: Neutral. The pair is best approached with range-trading tactics between 1.1736 and 1.1749, or market-neutral optionality around the 1.1743 pivot. Directional triggers are anticipated on confirmed breakouts above 1.1756 or below 1.1729.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)
  • Daily Pivot: 25,585.05
  • Support Levels: S1 25,473.82, S2 25,260.94
  • Resistance Levels: R1 25,797.93, R2 25,909.16
  • Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading between 25,473.82 and 25,797.93, or market-neutral options strategies around the 25,585.05 pivot. Clear directional triggers will emerge only on confirmed moves beyond 25,909.16 or below 25,260.94.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)
  • Daily Pivot: 6,879.30
  • Support Levels: S1 6,855.15, S2 6,809.29
  • Resistance Levels: R1 6,925.16, R2 6,949.31
  • Bias: Neutral. The preference is for range-trading between 6,855.15 and 6,925.16, or market-neutral options strategies centered on the 6,879.30 pivot. Directional triggers will require confirmed breakouts above 6,949.31 or below 6,809.29.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX)
  • Daily Pivot: 24,222.20
  • Support Levels: S1 24,080.39, S2 23,866.17
  • Resistance Levels: R1 24,436.42, R2 24,578.23
  • Bias: Neutral. The current environment supports range-trading between 24,080.39 and 24,436.42, or market-neutral options around the 24,222.20 pivot. Directional triggers will be activated on confirmed breaks above 24,578.23 or below 23,866.17.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)
  • Daily Pivot: 43,621.67
  • Support Levels: S1 43,390.33, S2 43,078.67
  • Resistance Levels: R1 43,933.33, R2 44,164.67
  • Bias: Neutral. Consider range-trading strategies between 43,390.33 and 43,933.33, or market-neutral options around the 43,621.67 pivot. Definitive directional signals will materialize only on confirmed breakouts beyond 44,164.67 or below 43,078.67.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)
  • Daily Pivot: 2,580.99
  • Support Levels: S1 2,568.08, S2 2,545.56
  • Resistance Levels: R1 2,603.51, R2 2,616.42
  • Bias: Neutral. The recommendation is for range-trading between 2,568.08 and 2,603.51, or market-neutral options structures around the 2,580.99 pivot. Directional triggers are expected on confirmed breakouts above 2,616.42 or below 2,545.56.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading in derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high degree of risk.