Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Thursday, December 11, 2025

Today's pre-market session suggests a mixed tone across global equity indices, characterized by ongoing sectoral rotations and selective capital flows. Investors are keenly awaiting fresh macro catalysts, prompting a more tactical approach to trading.

US Index Futures

US index futures are showing a modest positive bias this morning. Both the US500 and NAS100 futures are currently exhibiting a slight upward tilt, with a general bias around +0.03. Traders should closely monitor recent highs and lows for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios, as price action around these levels could define intraday direction.

Currency and Commodity Markets

The FX landscape sees EURUSD maintaining a neutral bias, with its movements primarily driven by the Fed/ECB differential and upcoming inflation and labor data. In commodities, both gold and WTI crude oil also reflect a neutral stance. Flows in these markets are influenced by a combination of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news developments related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility Outlook

The VIX, a key gauge of market volatility, remains at intermediate levels. This indicates that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is currently no widespread expectation of systemic stress. The environment supports a cautious, event-driven trading style.

Tactical Focus and Top Movers

With the market largely in anticipation of new macro catalysts, today's trading is expected to remain highly tactical. Emphasis will be placed on identifying key support and resistance levels for entry and exit points. Investors should remain vigilant for sudden headlines that could trigger swift market reactions across asset classes.

In this environment of sector rotation and selective flows, potential top movers are likely to emerge from companies reporting unexpected news, specific industry developments, or those benefiting from the ongoing capital shifts between sectors. Without a clear macro driver, individual stock performance may be highly idiosyncratic and news-driven, making careful stock-specific analysis paramount.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Thursday Overview

Asian markets are displaying limited directional conviction, with movements largely contained as investors focus on local news and key economic data from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are expected to reflect this cautious sentiment.

European futures are largely flat in early trading, indicating a neutral start to the session. The broader sentiment remains subdued as market participants await fresh macroeconomic or political catalysts to drive direction. Attention will be on the DAX and EuroStoxx as they navigate this cautious environment.

The macro calendar for today, Thursday, presents moderate significance but includes several publications capable of influencing market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange.

• Morning (CET): The focus will be on Eurozone confidence and production indicators, alongside various local economic updates.
• Afternoon (CET): Key US data releases are anticipated, such as inflation, labor market figures, or activity reports (depending on the specific day). These will be crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening (CET): Any scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) members, as well as financial conditions statistics, should be closely monitored for potential volatility spikes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (December 11, 2025)

Good morning, traders. Here's a look at the key technical levels for major assets, based on yesterday's closing data and updated for December 11, 2025. These levels highlight potential support, resistance, and intraday pivot points for today's trading session.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,220.40
• Yesterday's Range: 4,214.30 – 4,226.10
• Context: Gold experienced a moderately bullish session, closing in the middle of its daily range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 4,220.27
  • Support 1 (S1): 4,214.43
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 4,226.23
  • Support 2 (S2): 4,208.47
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 4,232.07

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 57.90
• Yesterday's Range: 57.85 – 58.94
• Context: WTI Crude saw a moderately bearish session, with the price closing in the lower part of its daily range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 58.23
  • Support 1 (S1): 57.52
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 58.61
  • Support 2 (S2): 57.14
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 59.32

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1705
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1686 – 1.1710
• Context: The EUR/USD pair concluded a moderately bullish session, closing near the upper end of its daily trading range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 1.1700
  • Support 1 (S1): 1.1691
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1715
  • Support 2 (S2): 1.1677
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1724

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,776.44
• Yesterday's Range: 25,504.30 – 25,835.03
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 traded largely sideways, closing towards the upper part of its daily range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 25,705.26
  • Support 1 (S1): 25,575.48
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 25,906.21
  • Support 2 (S2): 25,374.53
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 26,035.99

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,886.68
• Yesterday's Range: 6,824.69 – 6,900.67
• Context: The S&P 500 posted a moderately bullish session, finishing near the top of its daily range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 6,870.68
  • Support 1 (S1): 6,840.69
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 6,916.67
  • Support 2 (S2): 6,794.70
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 6,946.66

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,046.82
• Yesterday's Range: 24,007.98 – 24,055.17
• Context: The DAX experienced a largely sideways session, closing in the upper portion of its daily range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 24,036.66
  • Support 1 (S1): 24,018.14
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 24,065.33
  • Support 2 (S2): 23,989.47
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 24,083.85

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 43,358.37
• Yesterday's Range: 43,309.60 – 43,456.75
• Context: The FTSE MIB saw a largely lateral trading day, with its close situated in the middle of the daily range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 43,374.91
  • Support 1 (S1): 43,293.07
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 43,440.21
  • Support 2 (S2): 43,227.76
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 43,522.06

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,559.61
• Yesterday's Range: 2,519.17 – 2,576.31
• Context: The Russell 2000 had a moderately bullish session, closing towards the upper bounds of its daily range.
• Intraday Pivots:
  • Pivot (P): 2,551.70
  • Support 1 (S1): 2,527.08
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 2,584.22
  • Support 2 (S2): 2,494.56
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 2,608.84

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Commentary

Markets this Thursday are navigating a landscape characterized by elevated risk premiums in equity volatility, contained tech-sector volatility, and a softening US Dollar in the wake of recent Federal Reserve actions. Bond yields, particularly on the shorter end, have reacted to the Fed's dovish signals and upcoming liquidity measures.

Volatility Landscape: Realized vs. Implied

• S&P 500 Volatility (VIX): The VIX currently stands at approximately 16.8%, aligning with its recent average and indicating no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency in the broader market. However, a notable observation is the significant gap between implied and realized volatility for the S&P 500. With 10-day realized volatility around 6.5%, the VIX's current level suggests a considerable risk premium being priced into options, reflecting potential concerns beneath the calm surface.
• Nasdaq 100 Volatility (VXN): In contrast to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100's volatility (VXN) is at approximately 19.7%, which is below its 20-day average. This contained volatility in the tech-heavy index suggests a favorable environment for controlled carry or short volatility strategies.
• Cross-Asset Volatility: Volatility in other key asset classes remains largely in line with recent averages. Gold volatility (GVZ) is around 20.2% and Oil volatility (OVX) is at approximately 30.8%, with neither showing an evident excess of fear or complacency.

US Dollar Performance

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a softening trend, falling to 98.7020 on Thursday, December 11, marking a 0.09% decrease from the prior session. Over the past month, the DXY has weakened by 0.80%, and it is down by 7.72% over the last 12 months. This depreciation follows the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and a less hawkish outlook than anticipated, leading traders to price in further potential rate reductions.

Bond Yield Movements

US Treasury yields have broadly eased following the Federal Reserve's recent dovish signaling and the announcement of upcoming Treasury bill purchases aimed at easing money market strains.

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield eased to 4.13% on Thursday, December 11, decreasing by 0.03 percentage points from the previous session. It fell more than 4 basis points to 4.1235% on Thursday. While it has edged up by 0.06 points over the past month, it remains 0.20 points lower than a year ago.
• 2-Year US Treasury Yield: More sensitive to monetary policy, the 2-year US Treasury yield was down roughly four basis points to 3.5278% on Thursday. On December 10, 2025, the yield was 3.63%.
• 30-Year US Treasury Yield: The 30-year US Treasury yield eased to 4.79% on December 10, 2025, a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. It has seen an increase of 0.08 points over the last month and is 0.30 points higher than a year ago.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As Thursday's trading session unfolds, a neutral bias prevails across major assets, suggesting a day potentially dominated by range-bound strategies. Key pivot points will be crucial in defining intraday movements, with confirmed breakouts beyond established resistance or support levels serving as directional triggers.

Here's a breakdown of the tactical playbook for today:

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC)
  • Daily Pivot: 4,228.37
  • Support Levels: S1 at 4,230.63, S2 at 4,216.57
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 4,242.43, R2 at 4,240.17
  • Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading strategies between 4,230.63 and 4,242.43, or market-neutral option structures around the 4,228.37 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 4,240.17 or below 4,216.57.
• WTI Crude (CL)
  • Daily Pivot: 58.23
  • Support Levels: S1 at 57.52, S2 at 57.14
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 58.61, R2 at 59.32
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 57.52 and 58.61 is suitable, along with market-neutral option strategies around the 58.23 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 59.32 or below 57.14.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E)
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1701
  • Support Levels: S1 at 1.1693, S2 at 1.1678
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1716, R2 at 1.1725
  • Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading between 1.1693 and 1.1716, or market-neutral option structures around the 1.1701 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 1.1725 or below 1.1678.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)
  • Daily Pivot: 25,705.26
  • Support Levels: S1 at 25,575.48, S2 at 25,374.53
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,906.21, R2 at 26,035.99
  • Bias: Neutral. Strategies should center on range-trading between 25,575.48 and 25,906.21, or market-neutral options around the 25,705.26 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 26,035.99 or below 25,374.53.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)
  • Daily Pivot: 6,870.68
  • Support Levels: S1 at 6,840.69, S2 at 6,794.70
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,916.67, R2 at 6,946.66
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 6,840.69 and 6,916.67 is preferred, or market-neutral options around the 6,870.68 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 6,946.66 or below 6,794.70.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX)
  • Daily Pivot: 24,036.50
  • Support Levels: S1 at 24,017.83, S2 at 23,989.31
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,065.02, R2 at 24,083.69
  • Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 24,017.83 and 24,065.02, or market-neutral options around the 24,036.50 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 24,083.69 or below 23,989.31.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)
  • Daily Pivot: 43,375.51
  • Support Levels: S1 at 43,294.27, S2 at 43,228.36
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 43,441.42, R2 at 43,522.66
  • Bias: Neutral. The focus is on range-trading between 43,294.27 and 43,441.42, or market-neutral options around the 43,375.51 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 43,522.66 or below 43,228.36.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)
  • Daily Pivot: 2,551.70
  • Support Levels: S1 at 2,527.08, S2 at 2,494.56
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,584.22, R2 at 2,608.84
  • Bias: Neutral. Suitable for range-trading between 2,527.08 and 2,584.22, or market-neutral options around the 2,551.70 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 2,608.84 or below 2,494.56.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.