Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 12, 2026

Markets are starting the week with a mixed tone this Monday, January 12, 2026. Global equity indices are largely directionless, characterized by ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows rather than broad market trends.

US Index Futures:

• US500 and NAS100 futures exhibit a slight positive bias, currently around +0.07%.
• Traders are closely monitoring for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, suggesting a tactical approach to entry and exit points.

Pre-Market Tone:

The pre-market sentiment is cautious but lacks extreme panic, reflecting the broader mixed context. While there's a slight upside tilt in US futures, the market remains sensitive to technical levels and awaiting fresh catalysts. This environment suggests a continued focus on risk management and nimble trading strategies.

Broader Market Snapshot:

• FX: EURUSD remains neutral, with its trajectory primarily driven by the Fed/BCE differential and upcoming inflation and labor data.
• Commodities: Both gold and WTI crude oil maintain a neutral bias. Price action in these assets reflects a blend of macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility:

The VIX is currently trading at elevated levels compared to its recent lows. This indicates that the market is willing to pay for protection, though it is not signaling extreme panic. The elevated volatility suggests an underlying cautiousness and highlights the potential for sharper moves on new information.

Tactical Outlook:

Today's trading is expected to remain highly tactical, with market participants awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts. The emphasis will be on trading established support and resistance levels, while staying alert for any sudden headline-driven movements that could impact market direction. Specific top movers will likely emerge from these tactical plays and company-specific news flows.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets - Monday, January 12, 2026

Good morning and welcome to your Monday market update. Global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone as investors await fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets are showing limited directional strength this morning. Movements remain contained, with investor focus primarily on local news and key economic data from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are reflecting this subdued activity, without any strong impetus for significant shifts.

Europe

European futures are largely unmoved, indicating a neutral start to the trading week. The current environment suggests investors are awaiting new macroeconomic and political catalysts to provide clearer direction for indices like the DAX and EuroStoxx.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The economic calendar for today presents a moderate level of importance, with several publications that could influence sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: Expect confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These releases will be closely watched for insights into the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with upcoming data on inflation, labor, or activity (depending on the specific day). These figures are crucial and could significantly impact the EURUSD exchange rate and US indices.
• Evening: Any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE) will be monitored. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions should be watched for potential volatility spikes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (January 12, 2026)

Good morning, traders. As markets open this Monday, we analyze the key technical levels for major assets based on yesterday's closing data. Price action across various instruments showed a mix of bullish and sideways movements, with several indices closing near the higher end of their daily ranges.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a clearly bullish session, closing strongly at 4,590.80, within the upper part of its daily range of 4,520.80 – 4,612.70. Key classical pivot points for today are:

• Pivot (P): 4,574.77
• Support 1 (S1): 4,536.83
• Resistance 1 (R1): 4,628.73
• Support 2 (S2): 4,482.87
• Resistance 2 (R2): 4,666.67

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude traded largely sideways, closing at 59.07. Its range for the prior session was 58.64 – 59.80, with the close occurring in the central part of this range. Technical levels to watch include:

• Pivot (P): 59.17
• Support 1 (S1): 58.54
• Resistance 1 (R1): 59.70
• Support 2 (S2): 58.01
• Resistance 2 (R2): 60.33

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair showed a largely sideways session, concluding at 1.1682. The pair closed in the upper part of its yesterday's range of 1.1627 – 1.1688. Key pivots are:

• Pivot (P): 1.1666
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1643
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1704
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1604
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1727

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 had a moderately bullish session, closing at 25,766.26, near the higher end of its 25,455.97 – 25,811.45 range. Intraday focus will be on these levels:

• Pivot (P): 25,677.89
• Support 1 (S1): 25,544.34
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,899.82
• Support 2 (S2): 25,322.41
• Resistance 2 (R2): 26,033.37

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 also exhibited a moderately bullish trend, closing at 6,966.28, in the upper portion of its 6,917.64 – 6,978.36 daily range. The pivotal levels are:

• Pivot (P): 6,954.09
• Support 1 (S1): 6,929.83
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,990.55
• Support 2 (S2): 6,893.37
• Resistance 2 (R2): 7,014.81

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

Germany's DAX saw a moderately bullish session, ending at 25,261.64, with its close situated towards the top of yesterday's 25,107.92 – 25,281.18 range. Key levels for today include:

• Pivot (P): 25,216.91
• Support 1 (S1): 25,152.65
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,325.91
• Support 2 (S2): 25,043.65
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,390.17

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB experienced a largely lateral session, closing at 45,719.00, albeit in the upper part of its 45,577.00 – 45,780.00 range. Traders should monitor:

• Pivot (P): 45,692.00
• Support 1 (S1): 45,604.00
• Resistance 1 (R1): 45,807.00
• Support 2 (S2): 45,489.00
• Resistance 2 (R2): 45,895.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed a moderately bullish session at 2,624.22, settling near the middle of its 2,606.66 – 2,635.80 daily range. The key pivot points are:

• Pivot (P): 2,622.23
• Support 1 (S1): 2,608.65
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,637.79
• Support 2 (S2): 2,593.09
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,651.37

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Market Update: Volatility, Currencies, and Yields in Focus

Good morning, and welcome to our latest market commentary. As we begin the week, investors are closely monitoring shifts in market volatility, currency movements, and the bond yield landscape. Today's focus highlights the current state of risk perception and its implications across asset classes.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Term Structure

Market volatility, as measured by key indices, shows a generally balanced picture, though an elevated risk premium persists in the equity space.

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands at approximately 14.5%, aligning with its recent average, suggesting no evident extremes of fear or complacency in the broader market.
• Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is around 19.1%, also consistent with its recent average.
• Cross-asset volatility gauges reflect a similar trend: GVZ (Gold) is at ~23.4%, and OVX (Oil) at ~36.8%, both in line with their respective recent averages.

However, a closer look at the S&P 500 (SPX) reveals a notable divergence between realized and implied volatility. The 10-day realized volatility for SPX is approximately 7.5%, while the VIX, representing implied volatility, is significantly higher at ~14.5%. This substantial premium indicates that the implied volatility priced by the VIX is well above the 10-day realized volatility, suggesting an elevated risk premium in the market.

USD Performance

The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a slight decline today, falling to 98.9411, down 0.19% from the prior session, effectively ending a four-day rally. This recent dip was partly attributed to a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which introduced questions regarding the central bank's independence. Despite this, the USD has strengthened by 0.64% over the past month, though it remains 10.02% lower over the last 12 months. Last week, the US Dollar was the strongest major currency, supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data that instilled a slightly hawkish sentiment against anticipated rate cuts in 2026.

In currency pair movements, the EUR/USD exchange rate increased to 1.1682 today, rising 0.39% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate has weakened by 0.60%, yet it shows a significant gain of 14.03% over the last 12 months.

Bond Yields

US Treasury yields exhibited mixed movements today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 1 basis point at 4.181%. This follows an initial rise above 4.2% before retreating to around 4.18% on Friday, after a mixed jobs report influenced market expectations for Federal Reserve actions. The 10-year yield has edged up by 0.02 points over the past month but remains 0.59 points lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 2.7 basis points to 4.846% today.

Bond investors are increasingly favoring a "steepener trade," betting on short-maturity Treasuries outperforming their longer-term counterparts. This strategy has gained momentum, particularly after a recent employment report showed softer job growth than anticipated, reinforcing expectations for further Fed interest rate cuts to support the economy. The gap between two- and 10-year Treasury yields recently reached its widest point in almost nine months. Traders currently expect the next Fed rate reduction in mid-2026, with another potentially following in the fourth quarter, after three prior cuts since September.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As we begin the trading week, the overarching sentiment for several key assets remains neutral, suggesting a prevailing environment for range-bound strategies. Traders should focus on defined support and resistance levels, with directional triggers only expected upon confirmed breakouts beyond these established boundaries.

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

  Gold's daily pivot is identified at 4,575.40. Key support levels are S1 at 4,538.10 and S2 at 4,483.50. Resistances are marked at R1 (4,630.00) and R2 (4,667.30). The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading strategies between 4,538.10 and 4,630.00, or market-neutral option structures around the 4,575.40 pivot. Directional triggers will only materialize with confirmed breakouts above 4,667.30 or below 4,483.50.

• WTI Crude (CL)

  WTI Crude's daily pivot is at 59.17. Support levels are S1 at 58.53 and S2 at 58.01. Resistance levels are R1 at 59.69 and R2 at 60.33. The bias is neutral, making range-trading between 58.53 and 59.69, or market-neutral option strategies around the 59.17 pivot, the preferred approach. Confirmed breakouts above 60.33 or below 58.01 would signal directional moves.

• EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

  EUR/USD has a daily pivot at 1.1665. Supports are found at S1 (1.1642) and S2 (1.1604), while resistances are at R1 (1.1704) and R2 (1.1726). A neutral bias suggests range-trading between 1.1642 and 1.1704, or utilizing market-neutral option structures near the 1.1665 pivot. Directional triggers require confirmed breakouts past 1.1726 or below 1.1604.

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

  The Nasdaq 100's daily pivot is at 25,677.89. Supports are at S1 (25,544.34) and S2 (25,322.41), with resistances at R1 (25,899.82) and R2 (26,033.37). The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading within 25,544.34 and 25,899.82, or market-neutral option strategies around the 25,677.89 pivot. Directional triggers will be active on confirmed breakouts above 26,033.37 or below 25,322.41.

• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

  The S&P 500 holds a daily pivot at 6,954.09. Support levels are S1 at 6,929.83 and S2 at 6,893.37. Resistances are R1 at 6,990.55 and R2 at 7,014.81. With a neutral bias, range-trading between 6,929.83 and 6,990.55, or market-neutral option strategies around the 6,954.09 pivot, are recommended. Confirmed breakouts beyond 7,014.81 or below 6,893.37 are needed for directional conviction.

• DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

  The DAX's daily pivot is at 25,216.91. Supports are at S1 (25,152.65) and S2 (25,043.65), while resistances are at R1 (25,325.91) and R2 (25,390.17). The bias remains neutral, pointing towards range-trading between 25,152.65 and 25,325.91, or market-neutral option structures near the 25,216.91 pivot. Directional triggers will only be valid on confirmed breakouts exceeding 25,390.17 or falling below 25,043.65.

• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

  The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is at 45,692.00. Supports are found at S1 (45,604.00) and S2 (45,489.00), with resistances at R1 (45,807.00) and R2 (45,895.00). A neutral bias suggests range-trading within 45,604.00 and 45,807.00, or applying market-neutral option strategies around the 45,692.00 pivot. Directional shifts are contingent on confirmed breakouts above 45,895.00 or below 45,489.00.

• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

  The Russell 2000 has a daily pivot at 2,622.23. Support levels are S1 at 2,608.65 and S2 at 2,593.09. Resistances are R1 at 2,637.79 and R2 at 2,651.37. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 2,608.65 and 2,637.79, or market-neutral option strategies around the 2,622.23 pivot. Directional triggers will be activated upon confirmed breakouts above 2,651.37 or below 2,593.09.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.