Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: February 5, 2026

The pre-market tone this Thursday, February 5, 2026, reflects a mixed market sentiment, with equity indices currently lacking a strong directional bias. We are observing ongoing sector rotations and selective capital flows as participants await fresh impetus.

Focusing on US index futures, both the US500 and NAS100 exhibit a modest positive bias of +0.03%. Traders are keenly watching for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, which could dictate intraday trends. This highlights a market poised for tactical movements rather than broad directional plays in the early session.

Broader market dynamics continue to be characterized by these sector rotations and selective flows, indicating a cautious approach among investors.

In other markets, EURUSD maintains a neutral bias, with its direction primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve/European Central Bank rate differentials and upcoming inflation and labor data. Commodities also show a neutral stance, with both gold and WTI crude oil reflecting a balance between macro factors and specific news flow related to rates and global growth.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains at intermediate levels. This suggests the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, but without indicating immediate systemic stress.

The tactical focus for the day remains firmly on the lookout for new macro catalysts. Absent strong immediate drivers, trading strategies are likely to be highly tactical, emphasizing operations around established supports and resistances. Market participants are advised to remain vigilant for any sudden headlines that could swiftly alter the current landscape.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update

Good morning, and welcome to our Thursday market update. Global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone this morning, with investors largely awaiting fresh catalysts to provide clearer direction.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying limited strong directional conviction this morning, with movements remaining contained. The focus remains on local news and forthcoming economic data from China and Japan, which are expected to dictate sentiment. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices are likely to reflect this subdued activity, without strong impetus in either direction at present.

Europe

European futures are indicating a largely neutral opening, trading with minimal movement across the board. The broader picture for key indices such as the DAX and EuroStoxx remains subdued, as investors continue to await new macroeconomic or political developments to emerge and provide a clearer trajectory for the region.

USA

US futures are also mixed and without a clear directional bias, suggesting the market is undergoing a period of consolidation after recent sessions of notable movements.

Macroeconomic Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar, while of moderate overall importance, features several key publications that have the potential to influence market sentiment across both indices and foreign exchange markets:

• Morning: Attention will be on confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, along with various local economic updates that could offer insights into regional performance.
• Afternoon: The focus shifts to the United States, with anticipated releases covering inflation, labor, or activity data (depending on the specific announcements for the day). These figures will be particularly crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and the broader performance of US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, coupled with updated statistics on financial conditions, should be closely monitored for potential spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets - February 5, 2026

As trading commences this Thursday, market participants will be closely monitoring key technical levels across major assets and indices. The closing data from yesterday, February 4, 2026, provides crucial pivot points, support, and resistance levels that could dictate intraday movements.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,937.70, following a trading range between 4,805.00 and 5,045.00. The session was largely sideways, with the close settling near the middle of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 4,929.23
• Support 1 (S1): 4,813.47 · Support 2 (S2): 4,689.23
• Resistance 1 (R1): 5,053.47 · Resistance 2 (R2): 5,169.23

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended the session at 63.89, having traded within a range of 63.48 to 64.65. The commodity experienced a distinctly bearish session, closing in the central part of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 64.01
• Support 1 (S1): 63.36 · Support 2 (S2): 62.84
• Resistance 1 (R1): 64.53 · Resistance 2 (R2): 65.18

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1804 yesterday, with an intraday range spanning from 1.1788 to 1.1812. The trading session was largely lateral, with the pair closing near the midpoint of its daily fluctuations.

• Classic Pivot (P): 1.1801
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1791 · Support 2 (S2): 1.1778
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1814 · Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1825

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 concluded yesterday at 24,891.24, having traded between 24,681.27 and 25,275.26. The index saw a clearly bearish session, closing centrally within its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 24,949.26
• Support 1 (S1): 24,623.25 · Support 2 (S2): 24,355.27
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,217.24 · Resistance 2 (R2): 25,543.25

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 finished the day at 6,882.72, with its range for the session between 6,838.80 and 6,936.09. The index experienced a moderately bearish session, closing towards the middle of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 6,885.87
• Support 1 (S1): 6,835.65 · Support 2 (S2): 6,788.58
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,932.94 · Resistance 2 (R2): 6,983.16

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed at 24,603.04 yesterday, after trading in a range from 24,602.88 to 24,877.91. The session was moderately bearish, with the index closing towards the lower end of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 24,694.61
• Support 1 (S1): 24,511.31 · Support 2 (S2): 24,419.58
• Resistance 1 (R1): 24,786.34 · Resistance 2 (R2): 24,969.64

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded yesterday's trading at 46,636.00, having moved within a range of 46,494.00 to 47,094.00. The session was essentially lateral, with a closing price in the lower portion of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 46,741.33
• Support 1 (S1): 46,388.67 · Support 2 (S2): 46,141.33
• Resistance 1 (R1): 46,988.67 · Resistance 2 (R2): 47,341.33

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,624.55, with its daily range between 2,591.87 and 2,660.44. The index experienced a moderately bearish session, closing towards the middle of its daily range.

• Classic Pivot (P): 2,625.62
• Support 1 (S1): 2,590.80 · Support 2 (S2): 2,557.05
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,659.37 · Resistance 2 (R2): 2,694.19

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Update: Thursday, February 5, 2026

Global markets are exhibiting a mixed picture this Thursday morning, with volatility measures showing some divergence across asset classes. Investors are closely watching central bank actions, currency movements, and bond yields for further direction.

Equity Volatility: A Premium on Protection

• VIX (S&P 500): The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 is currently around 18.6%, aligning with its recent average. This suggests no immediate signs of extreme fear or complacency in the broader market.
• Realized vs. Implied Volatility (SPX): A notable observation is that the implied volatility priced by the VIX (~18.6%) is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility of the S&P 500 (~7.8%). This substantial premium indicates that the market is pricing in a higher risk of future price swings than what has been observed recently.
• VXN (Nasdaq 100): Nasdaq 100 volatility (VXN) stands at approximately 26.0%, moderately above its 20-day average. This suggests that the market is willing to pay for protection in technology and growth-oriented stocks, though without outright panic.

Cross-Asset Volatility: Prudence in Commodities

• GVZ (Gold): Gold volatility (GVZ) is at about 36.9%, moderately above its 20-day average. This implies that investors are seeking protection in the precious metal, indicating a degree of caution.
• OVX (Oil): Oil volatility (OVX) is notably high at around 55.1%, also moderately above its 20-day average. Similar to gold, this suggests market participants are paying a premium for protection against potential price fluctuations in crude oil.

Currency Markets: Dollar Strength and Euro Dynamics

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 97.7862 on February 5, 2026, marking a 0.17% increase from the previous session. The DXY, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, closed at 97.53 points, up 0.15% from its prior close. Despite this daily uptick, the dollar has shown weakness over the past month, depreciating by 0.81%, and is down 9.20% over the last 12 months. According to Reuters, the recent recovery of the US dollar is anticipated to be short-lived, with a weakening trend expected in the latter part of the year, driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Conversely, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell to 1.1798 today, a 0.08% decrease from the previous session. However, over the last month, the euro has strengthened by 0.94% against the dollar and is up 13.62% over the past year. In early 2026, the euro even briefly tested the 1.20 mark against the US dollar. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, February 5, 2026, with policymakers reportedly comfortable with their current policy stance.

Bond Yields: Slight Easing Amidst Fed Speculation

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield: The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury note eased slightly to 4.27% on February 5, 2026, a marginal decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous session. Despite this, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points over the past month.
• US 2-Year Treasury Yield: The yield on the US 2-Year Treasury note held steady at 3.56% on February 5, 2026, after registering 3.57% yesterday. This short-term yield has also seen an uptick, rising by 0.08 points over the last month.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday/Multiday Tactical Playbook

As of Thursday, market participants are presented with a predominantly neutral bias across key asset classes, suggesting a focus on range-trading strategies and market-neutral optional structures around daily pivots. Directional triggers are clearly defined by significant breakouts beyond established resistance or support levels.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 4,927.93
• Trading Strategy: Favorable for range-trading between the first support (S1) at 4,810.87 and the first resistance (R1) at 5,050.87. Alternatively, consider market-neutral optional structures centered around the daily pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 5,167.93 (R2) or below 4,687.93 (S2) would signal a directional shift.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 64.01
• Trading Strategy: Engage in range-trading between S1 at 63.38 and R1 at 64.55. Market-neutral optional strategies can also be employed around the 64.01 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed move beyond 65.18 (R2) or below 62.84 (S2) is required for directional conviction.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 1.1801
• Trading Strategy: Range-trading is preferred between S1 at 1.1791 and R1 at 1.1814. Market-neutral optional structures are viable around the 1.1801 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Look for confirmed breakouts above 1.1825 (R2) or below 1.1778 (S2) for directional plays.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 24,949.26
• Trading Strategy: Range-trading opportunities exist between S1 at 24,623.25 and R1 at 25,217.24. Market-neutral options strategies are suitable around the 24,949.26 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 25,543.25 (R2) or below 24,355.27 (S2) will establish a directional bias.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 6,885.87
• Trading Strategy: Focus on range-trading between S1 at 6,835.65 and R1 at 6,932.94. Market-neutral optional structures are also appropriate around the 6,885.87 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed moves beyond 6,983.16 (R2) or below 6,788.58 (S2) are needed for directional momentum.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 24,694.61
• Trading Strategy: Range-trading is recommended between S1 at 24,511.31 and R1 at 24,786.34. Consider market-neutral optional strategies around the 24,694.61 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 24,969.64 (R2) or below 24,419.58 (S2) would indicate a directional shift.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 46,741.33
• Trading Strategy: Range-trading opportunities are available between S1 at 46,388.67 and R1 at 46,988.67. Market-neutral optional structures are suitable around the 46,741.33 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed push above 47,341.33 (R2) or below 46,141.33 (S2) is required for a directional trade.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Bias: Neutral
• Daily Pivot: 2,625.62
• Trading Strategy: Range-trading is favored between S1 at 2,590.80 and R1 at 2,659.37. Market-neutral optional strategies can be applied around the 2,625.62 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 2,694.19 (R2) or below 2,557.05 (S2) would suggest a directional move.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading in derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.