Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets Update

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

The pre-market tone this Wednesday is mixed, yet US index futures are showing a slight positive bias as the market continues to digest a flurry of corporate earnings and anticipates new macro catalysts. Investors are closely watching for breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, indicating selective flows and ongoing sector rotations.

US Equity Futures:

• US500, NAS100, and GER30 futures are trading with a general positive bias this morning. Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 futures all posted modest gains in early trading.
• This follows a strong rebound on Monday, with major indices ending higher to start February on a winning note.
• The broader market environment remains characterized by the absence of a strong directional trend, alongside active sector rotations and selective investment flows.

Pre-Market Movers:

Activity in the pre-market is being largely driven by earnings reports and specific company news, highlighting the selective nature of current market dynamics.

• Top Gainers:
  • Palantir (PLTR) surged over 11% in pre-market trading, extending gains after strong fourth-quarter results and optimistic guidance.
  • Other notable pre-market advancers include FatPipe Inc. (FATN), Texxon Holding Limited (NPT), and Gaxos.ai Inc. (GXAI), seeing significant percentage changes.
  • Memory and semiconductor stocks, such as Micron Technology (MU) and Western Digital (WDC), also showed positive momentum.
  • UBS Group AG (UBS) reported a substantial 56% surge in Q4 profit and announced a $3 billion share buyback, potentially boosting sentiment in the financial sector.
• Top Losers:
  • PayPal (PYPL) experienced a significant drop, plunging more than 16-18% following an earnings miss, weak outlook, and a surprise CEO shake-up.
  • Gartner (IT) was also among the significant pre-market decliners.
  • Other names like Massimo Group (MAMO) and FuboTV Inc. (FUBO) were also lower in pre-market trading.
• Companies like Snap (SNAP) are on watch as their Q4 2025 earnings release today could lead to significant price volatility.

Broader Market Context:

• The market is actively awaiting new macro catalysts, with investors closely monitoring earnings from over 100 S&P 500 companies this week, including Amazon and Google later.
• Key themes continue to underpin risk assets, including expectations of the Federal Reserve not tightening interest rates, potential for a small rate cut this year, solid economic fundamentals, and robust corporate earnings.
• Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains at intermediate levels, suggesting the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections but without signs of systemic stress.
• The AI narrative continues to be a significant driving force in the market, fueling interest and investment flows.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Today, markets are exhibiting a largely subdued tone as investors await fresh catalysts. Global futures are showing limited conviction, setting the stage for a potentially consolidative trading session.

Asia

Asian markets generally lacked strong directional momentum overnight. Movements were contained, with investors primarily focusing on local news and key Chinese and Japanese economic data. The Nikkei and Hang Seng indices saw modest shifts as participants digested regional developments.

Europe

European futures are signaling a largely flat open, indicating a neutral short-term outlook. The market currently lacks clear direction, with investors holding off on significant moves as they await new macroeconomic and political catalysts to emerge. This environment suggests a cautious approach heading into the trading day.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The economic calendar for today, Wednesday, presents moderate significance, though several publications could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange rates.

• Morning: Focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local economic updates. These releases may offer initial clues on the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts to the United States, with key data releases on inflation, employment, or activity levels (depending on the specific day). These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, should be closely monitored for potential spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Good morning, and welcome to our daily look at the market's key technical levels. As of Wednesday, February 4, 2026, the following report outlines the crucial support and resistance points for major commodities, currency pairs, and equity indices, based on yesterday's closing data. These levels are essential for understanding potential intraday movements and strategic positioning.

Gold (XAUUSD)

Gold experienced a distinctly bullish session yesterday, closing strongly at 5,090.70, positioned at the upper end of its 4,930.40 – 5,111.00 daily range. The precious metal shows clear upward momentum.

• Yesterday's Close: 5,090.70
• Daily Range: 4,930.40 – 5,111.00
• Classic Pivot (P): 5,044.03
• Support 1 (S1): 4,977.07
• Resistance 1 (R1): 5,157.67
• Support 2 (S2): 4,863.43
• Resistance 2 (R2): 5,224.63

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude finished yesterday's trading largely sideways, closing at 63.44 towards the lower end of its 63.26 – 64.17 daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 63.44
• Daily Range: 63.26 – 64.17
• Classic Pivot (P): 63.62
• Support 1 (S1): 63.08
• Resistance 1 (R1): 63.99
• Support 2 (S2): 62.71
• Resistance 2 (R2): 64.53

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a largely sideways session, closing strong at 1.1833 near the top of its 1.1813 – 1.1840 daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1833
• Daily Range: 1.1813 – 1.1840
• Classic Pivot (P): 1.1829
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1818
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1844
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1802
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1855

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a clearly bearish session, closing at 25,338.62 in the lower portion of its 25,112.46 – 25,840.04 daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 25,338.62
• Daily Range: 25,112.46 – 25,840.04
• Classic Pivot (P): 25,430.37
• Support 1 (S1): 25,020.71
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,748.29
• Support 2 (S2): 24,702.79
• Resistance 2 (R2): 26,157.95

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 concluded yesterday with a moderately bearish tone, settling at 6,917.81 within the central part of its 6,862.05 – 6,993.08 daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 6,917.81
• Daily Range: 6,862.05 – 6,993.08
• Classic Pivot (P): 6,924.31
• Support 1 (S1): 6,855.55
• Resistance 1 (R1): 6,986.58
• Support 2 (S2): 6,793.28
• Resistance 2 (R2): 7,055.34

DAX (DE40)

The DAX had a largely lateral session, closing at 24,780.79 near the lower end of its 24,703.62 – 25,098.71 daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 24,780.79
• Daily Range: 24,703.62 – 25,098.71
• Classic Pivot (P): 24,861.04
• Support 1 (S1): 24,623.37
• Resistance 1 (R1): 25,018.46
• Support 2 (S2): 24,465.95
• Resistance 2 (R2): 25,256.13

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB experienced a moderately bullish session, closing at 46,421.00 centrally within its 46,214.00 – 46,528.00 daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 46,421.00
• Daily Range: 46,214.00 – 46,528.00
• Classic Pivot (P): 46,387.67
• Support 1 (S1): 46,247.33
• Resistance 1 (R1): 46,561.33
• Support 2 (S2): 46,073.67
• Resistance 2 (R2): 46,701.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 concluded yesterday's trading with a largely sideways performance, closing at 2,648.50 near the upper end of its 2,605.88 – 2,666.85 daily range.

• Yesterday's Close: 2,648.50
• Daily Range: 2,605.88 – 2,666.85
• Classic Pivot (P): 2,640.41
• Support 1 (S1): 2,613.97
• Resistance 1 (R1): 2,674.94
• Support 2 (S2): 2,579.44
• Resistance 2 (R2): 2,701.38

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets Commentary

Good morning, and welcome to our Wednesday markets overview. Today, we're observing a nuanced picture across global assets, with particular attention on volatility metrics, the U.S. Dollar, and Treasury yields.

Equity Volatility (VIX)

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), tracking the S&P 500, stands at approximately 18.0%, aligning with its recent average. This suggests no evident extremes of fear or complacency in the broader equity market. However, a notable divergence exists between realized and implied volatility; the implied volatility priced by the VIX is significantly above the 10-day realized volatility of approximately 9.1%, indicating an elevated risk premium.

Cross-Asset Volatility

• The VXN (Nasdaq 100 volatility index) is at roughly 23.5%, also consistent with its recent average.
• In the commodities space, gold volatility (GVZ) is around 41.0%, moderately above its 20-day average, suggesting investors are paying for protection without panic.
• Similarly, oil volatility (OVX) sits at approximately 52.3%, moderately higher than its 20-day average, indicating a similar demand for hedging against price swings.
• Volatility data for EURUSD (EVZ) and the German DAX (VDAX) remains unavailable.

U.S. Dollar (USD)

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 97.3290 as of February 4, 2026, experiencing a slight decline of 0.11% from the prior session. This continues a trend of weakening, with the DXY having fallen by 0.96% over the past month and 9.53% over the last 12 months. The index notably fell below the 97.0 level in January 2026, reaching a four-year low. This depreciation has been attributed to a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards rate cuts, accelerating global de-dollarization trends, geopolitical disruptions, and some softening in U.S. economic fundamentals. Analysts anticipate a further, albeit more gradual, decline for the dollar in 2026, with forecasts placing the USDX in the 97-100 range by year-end. The DXY currently rests at a critical structural support zone between 96 and 97.

Bond Yields

U.S. Treasury yields have shown minor movements. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.28% on February 4, 2026, marking a modest increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous session. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note eased slightly to 3.58% on February 3, 2026, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the prior session.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Wednesday

As markets open this Wednesday, our tactical playbook for intraday and multiday scenarios indicates a predominantly neutral bias across major assets, favoring range-trading strategies. Key pivot points, support, and resistance levels will define potential trading ranges and signal directional triggers.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 5,042.67
• Support Levels: S1 4,974.33, S2 4,862.07
• Resistance Levels: R1 5,154.93, R2 5,223.27
• Bias: Neutral. The current context is most suitable for range-trading between 4,974.33 and 5,154.93, or employing market-neutral optional structures around the 5,042.67 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 5,223.27 or below 4,862.07 are required for directional plays.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 63.61
• Support Levels: S1 63.04, S2 62.70
• Resistance Levels: R1 63.95, R2 64.52
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading approach between 63.04 and 63.95, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 63.61 pivot, appears most appropriate.
• Directional Triggers: Look for confirmed breakouts above 64.52 or below 62.70 to establish directional biases.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1829
• Support Levels: S1 1.1818, S2 1.1802
• Resistance Levels: R1 1.1844, R2 1.1855
• Bias: Neutral. The pair is best suited for range-trading between 1.1818 and 1.1844, or utilizing market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1829 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1855 or below 1.1802 will provide directional impetus.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,430.37
• Support Levels: S1 25,020.71, S2 24,702.79
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,748.29, R2 26,157.95
• Bias: Neutral. Focus on range-trading strategies between 25,020.71 and 25,748.29, or market-neutral optional positions around the 25,430.37 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Await confirmed breakouts above 26,157.95 or below 24,702.79 for clear directional signals.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,924.31
• Support Levels: S1 6,855.55, S2 6,793.28
• Resistance Levels: R1 6,986.58, R2 7,055.34
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 6,855.55 and 6,986.58, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 6,924.31 pivot, are favored.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 7,055.34 or below 6,793.28 are necessary for directional trading.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,861.04
• Support Levels: S1 24,623.37, S2 24,465.95
• Resistance Levels: R1 25,018.46, R2 25,256.13
• Bias: Neutral. Consider range-trading between 24,623.37 and 25,018.46, or market-neutral optional setups around the 24,861.04 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Directional plays will materialize only on confirmed breakouts beyond 25,256.13 or below 24,465.95.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 46,387.67
• Support Levels: S1 46,247.33, S2 46,073.67
• Resistance Levels: R1 46,561.33, R2 46,701.67
• Bias: Neutral. A range-trading approach between 46,247.33 and 46,561.33, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 46,387.67 pivot, is recommended.
• Directional Triggers: Look for confirmed breakouts above 46,701.67 or below 46,073.67 for clear directional signals.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,640.41
• Support Levels: S1 2,613.97, S2 2,579.44
• Resistance Levels: R1 2,674.94, R2 2,701.38
• Bias: Neutral. Optimal strategies include range-trading between 2,613.97 and 2,674.94, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,640.41 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 2,701.38 or below 2,579.44 are required for directional entry.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.