Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Monday, February 2, 2026

Good morning, traders.

The global market sentiment this Monday, February 2, 2026, remains mixed, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across major equity indices. We are observing continued sector rotations and highly selective capital flows, indicating a cautious approach among investors.

US Index Futures:

US equity index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, are showing a slight positive bias in pre-market trading, with an average move of approximately +0.03%. Attention remains keenly focused on potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows. Traders should monitor these levels closely as any decisive moves could signal short-term direction.

Pre-Market Tone & Tactical Outlook:

The pre-market tone is one of anticipation, as markets await fresh macroeconomic catalysts. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is currently at intermediate levels, suggesting that the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections without indicating systemic stress. This environment encourages a more tactical approach to trading, focusing on established support and resistance levels. Furthermore, market participants should remain highly vigilant for sudden headlines or unexpected news developments, as these could trigger swift price movements and identify potential top movers for the session.

Other Key Assets:

In the FX space, EURUSD maintains a neutral bias, with its trajectory largely influenced by the differential in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data. Commodities, including gold and WTI crude oil, also exhibit a neutral bias. Their flows are currently reflecting a blend of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: February 2, 2026

Good morning, and welcome to this week's 'Morning Markets' update. As we kick off the week, global markets appear to be navigating a period of consolidation, with investors closely watching for fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying limited directional conviction this morning, with movements largely contained across the region. Investors are primarily focused on local news flow and upcoming economic data from China and Japan. We anticipate that key indices such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng will continue to reflect these regional-specific drivers throughout the session, absent any broader market-moving developments.

Europe

European futures are showing marginal movement in early trading, indicating a largely neutral start to the week. The current environment suggests that investors are in a holding pattern, awaiting new macroeconomic data or significant political developments to provide clearer direction. Major benchmarks like the DAX and EuroStoxx are expected to remain range-bound until such catalysts emerge.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar, while of moderate overall significance, features several publications that could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange (FX) markets:

• Morning: Expect a focus on confidence indicators and production data from the Eurozone, alongside various local economic updates that could offer insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with releases pertaining to inflation, employment, or overall economic activity. These data points will be particularly key for the EUR/USD currency pair and US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), as well as statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored for potential spikes in volatility across markets.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels - February 2, 2026

As we commence the trading week on Monday, February 2, 2026, yesterday's session presented a varied landscape across global markets. Commodities largely faced downward pressure, while major equity indices showed mixed sentiment, from significant declines in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 to moderately bullish closes for the DAX and FTSE MIB. The EUR/USD pair concluded with a moderately bearish tone.

Below are the key technical levels for today, calculated from yesterday's closing data:

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,557.70
• Yesterday's Range: 4,423.20 – 4,905.60
• Context: Gold experienced a distinctly bearish session, closing at the lower end of its daily range.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 4,628.83
  • Support 1 (S1): 4,352.07
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 4,834.47
  • Support 2 (S2): 4,146.43
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 5,111.23

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 61.90
• Yesterday's Range: 61.43 – 64.74
• Context: WTI Crude registered a clearly bearish session, closing towards the lower end of its daily trading range.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 62.69
  • Support 1 (S1): 60.64
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 63.95
  • Support 2 (S2): 59.38
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 66.00

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1860
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1844 – 1.1878
• Context: The EUR/USD pair concluded a moderately bearish session, settling in the mid-range of its daily activity.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 1.1861
  • Support 1 (S1): 1.1843
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1877
  • Support 2 (S2): 1.1827
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1894

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 25,552.39
• Yesterday's Range: 25,456.18 – 25,823.29
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a moderately bearish session, closing in the lower portion of its daily range.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 25,610.62
  • Support 1 (S1): 25,397.95
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 25,765.06
  • Support 2 (S2): 25,243.51
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 25,977.73

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,939.03
• Yesterday's Range: 6,893.48 – 6,964.09
• Context: The S&P 500 closed out a largely sideways session, settling near the middle of its daily range.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 6,932.20
  • Support 1 (S1): 6,900.31
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 6,970.92
  • Support 2 (S2): 6,861.59
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 7,002.81

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,538.81
• Yesterday's Range: 24,366.39 – 24,585.45
• Context: The DAX concluded a moderately bullish session, closing towards the upper end of its daily range.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 24,496.88
  • Support 1 (S1): 24,408.32
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 24,627.38
  • Support 2 (S2): 24,277.82
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 24,715.94

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 45,527.00
• Yesterday's Range: 45,139.00 – 45,584.00
• Context: The FTSE MIB recorded a moderately bullish session, finishing at the upper end of its daily range.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 45,416.67
  • Support 1 (S1): 45,249.33
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 45,694.33
  • Support 2 (S2): 44,971.67
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 45,861.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,613.74
• Yesterday's Range: 2,599.57 – 2,648.27
• Context: The Russell 2000 experienced a clearly bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.
• Key Pivot Levels:
  • Pivot (P): 2,620.53
  • Support 1 (S1): 2,592.78
  • Resistance 1 (R1): 2,641.48
  • Support 2 (S2): 2,571.83
  • Resistance 2 (R2): 2,669.23

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Signals Caution Amidst Cross-Asset Divergence

Good morning, traders and investors. Global markets begin the week exhibiting a nuanced picture, with some pockets of stability juxtaposed against rising cautionary signals, particularly within cross-asset volatility metrics.

Cross-Asset Volatility: A Mixed Landscape

Equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX (S&P 500) and VXN (Nasdaq 100), remains largely consistent with recent averages, hovering around 17.4% and 22.5% respectively. This suggests no immediate signs of excessive fear or complacency dominating the broader stock markets.

However, a notable divergence is evident elsewhere. Gold volatility (GVZ) stands at a significantly elevated 44.1%, markedly above its 20-day average. This surge indicates a prevailing "stress/risk-off" sentiment, with market participants seeking protection in the precious metal. Oil volatility (OVX) is also moderately elevated at 55.9%, suggesting that while the market is pricing in protection for energy, it is not yet indicative of widespread panic.

The term-structure analysis for the S&P 500 reveals a significant risk premium. The VIX (implied volatility at 17.4%) is notably above the 10-day realized volatility of approximately 13.5%. This wide spread suggests that investors are paying a substantial premium for future protection, signaling elevated risk perception in the near term.

USD Performance: Underlying Weakness with Short-Term Resurgence

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading near 97, marking an approximately 11.5% decline from its 2025 highs. This broader weakening trend is attributed to the Federal Reserve being perceived as "boxed in" and real yields drifting lower, diminishing the dollar's policy premium. Despite this overarching trend, the dollar experienced a nearly 1.10% gain in January, its strongest monthly performance since April of the prior year. All G10 currencies saw appreciation against the dollar in January, with the euro gaining roughly 1.3% and the Australian dollar rising by almost 5.25%. Earlier indications also pointed to a USD sell-off, pushing the DXY to 95.6, its lowest since February 2022, although subsequent comments from the Treasury Secretary helped stabilize markets. The Federal Reserve's decision in late January to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% aligns with market expectations, yet leaves the path of U.S. monetary policy somewhat uncertain.

Bond Yields: Easing but with a Steep Curve Outlook

U.S. Treasury yields have shown some easing in early February. The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Note softened to 4.23% on February 2, 2026, a slight decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the 10-year yield has edged up by 0.06 percentage points but remains 0.34 points lower year-over-year. Expectations are for the 10-year yield to trade around 4.20% by the end of the first quarter of 2026. The 2-Year Treasury Rate stood at 3.52% on January 30, 2026, slightly below the previous day's close but still above its long-term average.

Globally, bond markets saw yields push lower in early January, as softer economic data reinforced expectations of further monetary policy easing throughout 2026. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests that while fixed income markets may deliver solid returns, primarily driven by central bank rate cuts in response to potential labor market weakness, resilient economic growth and persistent inflation could temper the extent of yield declines. The yield curve is anticipated to remain steep, influenced by the prospect of increasing supply across government, municipal, and corporate bonds.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

Today, as markets open on Monday, the prevailing bias across key assets remains neutral, favoring range-trading strategies and market-neutral options structures. Traders should closely monitor the specified pivot points, support, and resistance levels for potential directional shifts.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold (XAUUSD / GC) maintains a neutral bias, suggesting a context best suited for range-trading strategies between 4,353.13 and 4,835.53. Alternatively, market-neutral options structures around the daily pivot of 4,629.37 may be considered.

• Daily Pivot: 4,629.37
• Support Levels: S1 at 4,353.13, S2 at 4,146.97
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 4,835.53, R2 at 5,111.77
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 5,111.77 or below 4,146.97

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude (CL) also exhibits a neutral bias, making it suitable for range-trading between 60.59 and 63.90. Market-neutral options strategies around the 62.67 pivot are also viable.

• Daily Pivot: 62.67
• Support Levels: S1 at 60.59, S2 at 59.36
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 63.90, R2 at 65.98
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 65.98 or below 59.36

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD pair, both spot and futures (6E), presents a neutral bias. The optimal approach involves range-trading between 1.1843 and 1.1877, or employing market-neutral options strategies centered around the 1.1861 pivot.

• Daily Pivot: 1.1861
• Support Levels: S1 at 1.1843, S2 at 1.1827
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1877, R2 at 1.1894
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1894 or below 1.1827

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ) is marked by a neutral bias, with a favorable environment for range-trading between 25,397.95 and 25,765.06. Market-neutral options strategies around the 25,610.62 pivot are also recommended.

• Daily Pivot: 25,610.62
• Support Levels: S1 at 25,397.95, S2 at 25,243.51
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,765.06, R2 at 25,977.73
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 25,977.73 or below 25,243.51

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500 (SPX / SPY) also demonstrates a neutral bias. Traders should consider range-trading strategies within the 6,900.31 to 6,970.92 band, or market-neutral options strategies around the 6,932.20 pivot.

• Daily Pivot: 6,932.20
• Support Levels: S1 at 6,900.31, S2 at 6,861.59
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,970.92, R2 at 7,002.81
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 7,002.81 or below 6,861.59

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX (DE40 / ODAX) maintains a neutral bias, making it suitable for range-trading between 24,408.32 and 24,627.38. Market-neutral options strategies around the 24,496.88 pivot are also advised.

• Daily Pivot: 24,496.88
• Support Levels: S1 at 24,408.32, S2 at 24,277.82
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,627.38, R2 at 24,715.94
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 24,715.94 or below 24,277.82

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO) shows a neutral bias, favoring range-trading between 45,249.33 and 45,694.33. Market-neutral options strategies around the 45,416.67 pivot should also be considered.

• Daily Pivot: 45,416.67
• Support Levels: S1 at 45,249.33, S2 at 44,971.67
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 45,694.33, R2 at 45,861.67
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 45,861.67 or below 44,971.67

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM) also carries a neutral bias. A context for range-trading between 2,592.78 and 2,641.48 is suggested, alongside market-neutral options strategies around the 2,620.53 pivot.

• Daily Pivot: 2,620.53
• Support Levels: S1 at 2,592.78, S2 at 2,571.83
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,641.48, R2 at 2,669.23
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 2,669.23 or below 2,571.83