Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Sunday, February 1, 2026

As we approach the new trading week, market sentiment remains characterized by a mixed outlook and an absence of strong directional conviction across global equity indices. Sectoral rotations and selective capital flows continue to define the current environment, suggesting investors are carefully evaluating opportunities rather than broadly committing to major trends.

US Index Futures:

• US equity index futures, including the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100), currently show a marginal positive bias, hovering around +0.03. This suggests a cautious start to the week, with traders keeping a close eye on potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows.

Pre-Market Tone & Key Themes:

• The overall pre-market tone is one of neutrality, reflecting the broader market's wait-and-see approach. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains at intermediate levels, pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections without signaling systemic stress.
• Market participants are keenly awaiting new macro catalysts to provide clearer direction. Operations are expected to be more tactical, focusing on established support and resistance levels. While explicit "top movers" are not yet evident in this Sunday pre-market, the prevailing selective flows indicate that any significant price action will likely be concentrated in specific sectors or individual stocks responding to particular news.
• Traders should also remain vigilant for any sudden headline news that could trigger swift market reactions.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: A Cautious Start to the Week Amidst Key Data Releases

Global markets are showing a subdued start to the week, with investors largely awaiting fresh catalysts following recent movements. Futures across major regions indicate a lack of strong directional conviction, pointing towards a day driven by local news and upcoming economic data.

Asia

• Asian markets opened without strong direction, exhibiting limited movements.
• The focus remains firmly on local news developments and impending economic data from China and Japan.
• Key indices such as the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng are expected to trade within tight ranges as participants digest regional specifics.

Europe

• European futures are showing minimal movement this morning, reflecting a broadly neutral sentiment.
• The current market framework suggests investors are in a holding pattern, awaiting significant macroeconomic or political catalysts.
• Indices like the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 will likely track global sentiment while anticipating new information that could break the current consolidation phase.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The economic calendar for today is of moderate relevance, but contains several publications capable of influencing sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: Expect the release of confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local economic updates. These could provide insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States, with data expected on inflation, labor, or activity (depending on the specific release schedule). These figures are particularly crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and overall US equity indices.
• Evening: Market participants should monitor any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, statistics on financial conditions will be key to watch for potential spikes in volatility.

Overall, markets appear to be in a phase of re-evaluation, with specific data points and central bank commentary poised to dictate near-term direction. Investors are advised to remain vigilant as the day unfolds.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels Ahead of the Week

As markets prepare for the new trading week, we analyze the key technical levels based on yesterday's closing data, updated to February 1, 2026. This overview highlights crucial pivot points, support, and resistance levels across major commodities, currencies, and indices.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a clearly bearish session, closing yesterday at 4,745.10, in the lower part of its daily range of 4,700.40 – 5,480.20. The classical pivot point for Gold is set at 4,975.23. Key support levels are identified at S1: 4,470.27 and S2: 4,195.43. On the upside, resistance levels are R1: 5,250.07 and R2: 5,755.03.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude concluded a substantially lateral session, with a closing price of 65.21, positioned in the middle of its 63.64 – 66.11 daily range. The pivot point for crude oil is 64.99. Traders should monitor support at S1: 63.86 and S2: 62.52, while resistance levels are R1: 66.33 and R2: 67.46.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a moderately bearish session, closing at 1.1854, towards the bottom of its 1.1854 – 1.1977 range. The central pivot point is 1.1895. Immediate support can be found at S1: 1.1813 and S2: 1.1772. Resistance levels are established at R1: 1.1936 and R2: 1.2019.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 finished a moderately bearish session, with its closing price at 25,552.39, residing in the lower part of its 25,456.18 – 25,823.29 daily range. The pivot point for the NDX is 25,610.62. Support levels are marked at S1: 25,397.95 and S2: 25,243.51. Resistance levels are R1: 25,765.06 and R2: 25,977.73.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 experienced a substantially lateral session, closing at 6,939.03, within the central portion of its 6,893.48 – 6,964.09 range. The pivot point is 6,932.20. Key support areas are S1: 6,900.31 and S2: 6,861.59, with resistance at R1: 6,970.92 and R2: 7,002.81.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX posted a moderately bullish session, closing at 24,538.81, towards the upper end of its 24,366.39 – 24,585.45 daily range. The pivot point is 24,496.88. Support levels are S1: 24,408.32 and S2: 24,277.82. Resistance levels are R1: 24,627.38 and R2: 24,715.94.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB concluded a moderately bullish session, closing at 45,527.00, at the higher end of its 45,139.00 – 45,584.00 range. The pivot point for the FTSE MIB is 45,416.67. Support levels are S1: 45,249.33 and S2: 44,971.67. Resistance levels are R1: 45,694.33 and R2: 45,861.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 had a clearly bearish session, closing at 2,613.74, in the lower part of its 2,599.57 – 2,648.27 range. The pivot point is 2,620.53. Supports are at S1: 2,592.78 and S2: 2,571.83. Resistances are at R1: 2,641.48 and R2: 2,669.23.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Dynamics and Shifting Fixed Income Landscape

Market participants are observing a nuanced picture across asset classes as we enter February, with volatility showing divergences and a significant repricing in currency and bond markets.

Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Cross-Asset Trends

The implied volatility for the S&P 500, as measured by the VIX, stands at approximately 17.4%, aligning with its recent average. Similarly, the VXN for the Nasdaq 100 is around 22.5%, also in line with its recent mean, suggesting no overt signs of extreme fear or complacency in broad equity markets.

However, a closer look at the realized versus implied volatility for the S&P 500 reveals a significant discrepancy: 10-day realized volatility is about 13.5%, while the VIX, representing implied volatility, is markedly higher at 17.4%. This indicates an elevated risk premium being priced into the market.

Cross-asset volatility presents a more varied picture. Gold's volatility (GVZ) is notably high at approximately 44.1%, significantly above its 20-day average, signaling a phase of stress or risk-off sentiment. Oil volatility (OVX) is also elevated at about 55.9%, moderately above its 20-day average, suggesting that the market is paying for protection, though without outright panic. Data for EURUSD (EVZ) and DAX (VDAX) volatility remain unavailable.

USD Performance: A Retreat from Recent Highs

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a notable decline in January 2026, falling below 97.0 and reaching a four-year low of 95.5. This weakening of the greenback was primarily driven by a pivot in Federal Reserve policy towards anticipated rate cuts, coupled with accelerating global de-dollarization trends, geopolitical disruptions, and a softening in U.S. economic fundamentals. Consequently, capital outflows from dollar-denominated assets intensified.

Despite a slight rebound to 97.1395 on January 30, 2026, the DXY still weakened by 1.20% over the past month and 10.36% over the last 12 months. Analysts largely anticipate a continued, albeit more gradual, decline for the dollar throughout 2026.

Bond Yields: Stability Amidst Shifting Rate Expectations

In the U.S., the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note remained steady at 4.24% on January 30, 2026. This yield edged up 0.07 points over the past month but remains 0.30 points lower than a year ago. Concurrently, the 2-year Treasury note closed at 3.52%, and the 30-year note finished at 4.87% on January 30, 2026. The Federal Reserve opted to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% during its January meeting, pausing its recent trend of rate cuts.

Globally, bond markets saw varied movements. Earlier in January 2026, bond markets generally moved higher as softer economic signals reinforced expectations for further monetary policy easing, leading to lower yields across Europe and the United States. For instance, the U.K.'s 10-year gilt yield dropped to 4.4%, and Germany's 10-year bund yield slid to 2.8% as eurozone inflation slowed. However, towards the close of 2025 and into early 2026, government bond yields in major markets also showed increases, reflecting resilient growth and persistent inflation concerns. Looking ahead, corporate bond issuance is projected to be substantial in 2026, largely fueled by capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As we approach the trading week, a predominantly neutral bias appears to define the landscape across key assets. This suggests that many markets may be ripe for range-bound trading strategies, with significant directional moves contingent upon confirmed breakouts beyond established resistance or support levels. Investors and traders should focus on identifying and exploiting opportunities within these defined ranges, while maintaining vigilance for potential shifts triggered by strong momentum.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 4,975.23
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 4,470.27, S2 at 4,195.43
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 5,250.07, R2 at 5,755.03
• Tactical Playbook: The current context is favorable for range-trading strategies between 4,470.27 and 5,250.07, or market-neutral option structures centered around the 4,975.23 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 5,755.03 or below 4,195.43 would indicate a potential directional shift.

WTI Crude (CL)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 64.99
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 63.86, S2 at 62.52
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 66.33, R2 at 67.46
• Tactical Playbook: Range-trading between 63.86 and 66.33 is advisable, alongside market-neutral option strategies around the 64.99 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 67.46 or below 62.52 would signal a directional move.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 1.1895
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 1.1813, S2 at 1.1772
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.1936, R2 at 1.2019
• Tactical Playbook: The environment supports range-trading between 1.1813 and 1.1936, or market-neutral option strategies positioned around the 1.1895 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Directional movements are anticipated only upon a confirmed breakout above 1.2019 or below 1.1772.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 25,610.62
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 25,397.95, S2 at 25,243.51
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,765.06, R2 at 25,977.73
• Tactical Playbook: Range-trading strategies within the 25,397.95 to 25,765.06 band, or market-neutral option structures around the 25,610.62 pivot, are recommended.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout beyond 25,977.73 or below 25,243.51 will be crucial for directional plays.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 6,932.20
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 6,900.31, S2 at 6,861.59
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 6,970.92, R2 at 7,002.81
• Tactical Playbook: Range-trading between 6,900.31 and 6,970.92, or market-neutral option strategies centered on the 6,932.20 pivot, are most appropriate.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed move above 7,002.81 or below 6,861.59 would establish a directional trigger.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 24,496.88
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 24,408.32, S2 at 24,277.82
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,627.38, R2 at 24,715.94
• Tactical Playbook: Range-trading within the 24,408.32 to 24,627.38 range, or market-neutral option structures around the 24,496.88 pivot, are suggested.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts beyond 24,715.94 or below 24,277.82 are needed for directional conviction.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 45,416.67
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 45,249.33, S2 at 44,971.67
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 45,694.33, R2 at 45,861.67
• Tactical Playbook: The current environment lends itself to range-trading between 45,249.33 and 45,694.33, or market-neutral option strategies around the 45,416.67 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 45,861.67 or below 44,971.67 would be a key directional trigger.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

Bias: Neutral

• Daily Pivot: 2,620.53
• Key Support Levels: S1 at 2,592.78, S2 at 2,571.83
• Key Resistance Levels: R1 at 2,641.48, R2 at 2,669.23
• Tactical Playbook: Range-trading within the 2,592.78 to 2,641.48 parameters, or market-neutral option strategies focused on the 2,620.53 pivot, are recommended.
• Directional Triggers: Directional triggers would arise from confirmed breakouts beyond 2,669.23 or below 2,571.83.

This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.