Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Navigating Mixed Sentiment Ahead of New Catalysts

Good morning, traders. As of Thursday, January 29, 2026, market sentiment remains broadly mixed, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction across major equity indices. We are observing continued sectoral rotations and selective capital flows, indicating a discerning approach from investors.

US Equity Futures & Pre-Market Tone US index futures are showing a slight positive bias in pre-market trading, with the US500 and NAS100 futures indicating a modest +0.03. This suggests a cautious, yet slightly optimistic, tone as market participants prepare for the open. Attention remains keenly focused on potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, underscoring the current tactical nature of trading. The pre-market period is largely defined by a wait-and-see approach, with investors holding out for fresh macroeconomic catalysts to provide clearer direction.

Sectoral Dynamics and Key Movers While no specific top movers are dominating the headlines this morning, the underlying theme of sectoral rotation persists. This dynamic implies that capital is moving selectively within the market, rather than across the board. Traders are advised to monitor individual stock performance and sector-specific news, as these selective flows are likely to influence intraday movements. The emphasis remains on tactical plays around established support and resistance levels.

Broader Market Indicators The volatility index (VIX) is currently situated at intermediate levels, suggesting that the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections. However, this does not imply systemic stress, reinforcing the narrative of a market awaiting definitive triggers. Gold and WTI crude oil are both exhibiting a neutral bias, with their movements reflecting a combination of macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects. Similarly, EURUSD remains neutrally biased, with its trajectory primarily driven by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank differential, alongside inflation and labor data.

Tactical Focus for the Day Today's trading is expected to be highly tactical, with market participants eagerly anticipating new macroeconomic catalysts. The absence of strong overarching trends necessitates an agile approach, focusing on opportunities at key support and resistance levels. Furthermore, traders should remain vigilant for sudden headline news, which could quickly alter market sentiment and direction.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update

Good morning, and welcome to your Thursday market briefing. Global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone this morning, with investors largely awaiting fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets lacked strong directional conviction overnight, displaying contained movements across the region. Sentiment was primarily influenced by local news flow and key economic data emanating from China and Japan. We anticipate modest movements in major indices like the Nikkei and Hang Seng as participants digest these localized factors.

Europe

European futures are indicating a quiet start to the trading day, with limited pre-market activity. The overall picture for now remains neutral, as investors hold back, keenly awaiting new macroeconomic or political developments that could provide fresh impetus. Major benchmarks such as the DAX and EuroStoxx are expected to reflect this cautious sentiment.

Key Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar, while of moderate overall importance, features several publications with the potential to influence market sentiment across both indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The focus will be on Eurozone confidence and production indicators, alongside various local economic updates that could offer insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift towards the United States, with data releases potentially covering inflation, labor markets, or broader economic activity (depending on the specific day). These figures will be crucial for the EURUSD pair and US equity indices.
• Evening: Market participants should monitor any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as statistics related to financial conditions, which have the capacity to introduce sudden spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (January 29, 2026)

As of Thursday, January 29, 2026, we review the key technical levels based on yesterday's closing data across major financial instruments.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a decidedly bullish session yesterday, closing at 5,584.30, positioned at the upper end of its daily range of 5,449.40 – 5,626.80. Key classic pivot points are established with the daily pivot (P) at 5,553.50, offering immediate support (S1) at 5,480.20 and resistance (R1) at 5,657.60. Further levels include S2 at 5,376.10 and R2 at 5,730.90.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude also saw a strong bullish session, closing at 64.23, near the peak of its 63.28 – 64.48 range. The daily pivot (P) is at 64.00, with immediate support (S1) at 63.51 and resistance (R1) at 64.71. Secondary levels are S2 at 62.80 and R2 at 65.20.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair concluded a largely sideways session, closing at 1.1972, centrally within its 1.1956 – 1.1998 range. The daily pivot (P) is set at 1.1975. Key support levels are S1 at 1.1953 and S2 at 1.1934, while resistance levels are R1 at 1.1994 and R2 at 1.2017.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a lateral session, closing at 26,022.79 towards the lower end of its 25,974.66 – 26,165.08 range. The daily pivot (P) is at 26,054.18. Immediate support (S1) stands at 25,943.27, with R1 at 26,133.69. Further levels are S2 at 25,863.76 and R2 at 26,244.60.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500's session was largely lateral, with a close at 6,978.03, near the midpoint of its 6,963.46 – 7,002.28 range. The daily pivot (P) is at 6,981.26. Key support levels are S1 at 6,960.23 and S2 at 6,942.44, while resistance levels are R1 at 6,999.05 and R2 at 7,020.08.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX also closed a generally lateral session at 24,822.79, in the middle of its 24,707.19 – 24,926.03 range. The daily pivot (P) is at 24,818.67. Key support levels are S1 at 24,711.31 and S2 at 24,599.83. Resistance levels are R1 at 24,930.15 and R2 at 25,037.51.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB saw a moderately bearish session, closing at 45,139.00, within the central part of its 44,904.00 – 45,473.00 range. The daily pivot (P) is at 45,172.00. Key support levels are S1 at 44,871.00 and S2 at 44,603.00. Resistance levels are R1 at 45,440.00 and R2 at 45,741.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 concluded a largely lateral session, closing at 2,653.55, towards the lower end of its 2,647.63 – 2,685.86 range. The daily pivot (P) is at 2,662.35. Immediate support (S1) stands at 2638.83, with R1 at 2,677.06. Further levels are S2 at 2,624.12 and R2 at 2,700.58.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Diverges, USD Under Pressure, Yields Edge Up

As Thursday trading commences, a mixed picture emerges across global markets, characterized by divergent volatility trends, a weakening US dollar, and modestly rising Treasury yields.

Equity market volatility remains contained, with the VIX (S&P 500) at approximately 16.4% and the VXN (Nasdaq 100) around 20.4%. Both are in line with their recent averages, suggesting no evident excess of fear or complacency in broad equity indices. The implied volatility for the S&P 500 is slightly above its 10-day realized volatility of ~13.7%, indicating a normal protection premium.

However, a different narrative unfolds in cross-asset volatility. Gold volatility (GVZ) is notably elevated at ~39.7%, significantly above its 20-day average, signaling a phase of stress and risk-off sentiment for the precious metal. Oil volatility (OVX) stands at ~50.4%, moderately above its 20-day average, suggesting that the market is paying for protection in the energy sector, though without widespread panic. Gold and silver have surged to fresh record highs this month, breaking above $5,500 and $120 per ounce respectively, reflecting investor demand for a hedge against ongoing geopolitical risks and potential US dollar weakening.

The US dollar has experienced a period of weakness. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 98 in early January 2026, close to multi-month lows. This decline accelerated after a recent Federal Reserve decision, with the dollar index down around 0.30% on Wednesday. The dollar had fallen to 4-year lows ahead of the FOMC on January 27, 2026. Analysts generally anticipate further gradual weakening of the USD throughout 2026, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and improving global conditions. Some attribute this weakness to "currency debasement fears" and political rhetoric favoring a weaker dollar to boost US exports.

In the bond market, US Treasury yields have edged higher this month. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held steady at 4.26% on January 28, 2026, having previously reached a five-month high of 4.3% on January 20th. This represents an increase of 0.14 points over the past month, although it remains 0.30 points lower than a year ago. The 2-year note closed at 3.60% and the 30-year note at 4.82% on January 23rd. The Federal Reserve recently maintained its rates, though two FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25 basis point cut. Market expectations generally point to a continued steepening of the yield curve with one or two more Fed rate cuts anticipated in 2026, although some caution that sticky inflation might limit the extent of these cuts.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

Today, Thursday, January 29, 2026, market participants are observing generally neutral biases across key assets, suggesting a focus on range-bound strategies unless significant directional triggers emerge. Below is a detailed tactical playbook for intraday and multiday trading.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

For Gold, the daily pivot is identified at 5,553.17. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 5,479.53 and the first resistance (R1) at 5,656.93.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 5,553.17 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 5,730.57 or below the second support (S2) at 5,375.77 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.

WTI Crude (CL)

For WTI Crude, the daily pivot is identified at 63.99. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 63.50 and the first resistance (R1) at 64.70.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 63.99 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 65.19 or below the second support (S2) at 62.79 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

For EUR/USD, the daily pivot is identified at 1.1975. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 1.1953 and the first resistance (R1) at 1.1994.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 1.1975 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 1.2017 or below the second support (S2) at 1.1934 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

For the Nasdaq 100, the daily pivot is identified at 26,054.18. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 25,943.27 and the first resistance (R1) at 26,133.69.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 26,054.18 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 26,244.60 or below the second support (S2) at 25,863.76 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

For the S&P 500, the daily pivot is identified at 6,981.26. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 6,960.23 and the first resistance (R1) at 6,999.05.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 6,981.26 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 7,020.08 or below the second support (S2) at 6,942.44 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

For the DAX, the daily pivot is identified at 24,818.67. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 24,711.31 and the first resistance (R1) at 24,930.15.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 24,818.67 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 25,037.51 or below the second support (S2) at 24,599.83 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

For the FTSE MIB, the daily pivot is identified at 45,172.00. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 44,871.00 and the first resistance (R1) at 45,440.00.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 45,172.00 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 45,741.00 or below the second support (S2) at 44,603.00 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

For the Russell 2000, the daily pivot is identified at 2,662.35. The bias remains neutral, suggesting a context suitable for range-trading strategies.

• Range-Trading Zone: Traders may consider range-trading opportunities between the first support (S1) at 2,638.83 and the first resistance (R1) at 2,677.06.
• Market-Neutral Strategies: Alternatively, market-neutral optional structures around the pivot of 2,662.35 could be employed.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above the second resistance (R2) at 2,700.58 or below the second support (S2) at 2,624.12 would act as directional triggers for a potential trend development.