Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets - January 28, 2026

Morning Market Overview

Global equity markets are presenting a mixed picture this Wednesday, January 28, 2026, with major indices failing to establish a strong directional bias. We are observing distinct sectoral rotations and selective capital flows, indicative of a cautious sentiment as investors weigh various macroeconomic factors.

Equity Focus

US index futures, including the US500 and NAS100, along with the GER30, are exhibiting a slight positive bias of +0.03 in pre-market trading. This marginal uptick suggests a tentative start to the session. Traders are advised to monitor closely for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows. The overall tone for equities points towards anticipation, as the market awaits fresh catalysts to provide clearer direction and potential top movers.

FX and Commodities

In the foreign exchange market, EURUSD continues to trade with a neutral bias. The pair remains primarily influenced by the differential in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data from both economies.

Commodity markets also reflect a neutral stance. Gold and WTI crude oil are both trading with a neutral bias. Flows in these segments are a confluence of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility Update

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently situated at intermediate levels. This suggests that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress or heightened fear among investors.

Tactical Outlook for the Day

Today's trading is expected to be largely tactical, with market participants awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts to emerge. Operational focus will likely remain on identifying key support and resistance levels across asset classes. Furthermore, vigilance against any sudden headline news is paramount, as such events could trigger immediate price movements. The absence of strong directional flows encourages a disciplined approach, favoring tactical plays over conviction-driven trades until further clarity emerges.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Awaiting Catalysts Amidst Mixed Global Signals

As Wednesday unfolds, global markets present a nuanced picture, with investors largely in a holding pattern awaiting fresh directional catalysts.

Asia

• Asian markets are experiencing limited directional momentum, with movements remaining contained.
• The focus for investors remains squarely on local news developments and key economic data emerging from China and Japan.
• Indices like the Nikkei and Hang Seng are expected to reflect this cautious sentiment, showing modest fluctuations as traders digest regional inputs.

Europe

• European futures are trading with minimal movement this morning, indicating a neutral framework for now.
• The continent's markets, including the DAX and EuroStoxx, are characterized by investors awaiting new macroeconomic or political catalysts to provide clearer direction.
• This suggests a wait-and-see approach as market participants monitor for significant developments.

USA

• US futures are mixed and currently lack a clear direction, reflecting a consolidation phase in the market after the movements of recent sessions.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar, while of moderate overall relevance, features several publications that hold the potential to influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The early hours will see the release of confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside various local economic updates. These could provide insights into regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States, where data pertaining to inflation, labor, or activity is slated for release. These figures are particularly crucial for influencing the EUR/USD exchange rate and US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, market participants should monitor any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as statistics on financial conditions. These could potentially trigger spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (January 28, 2026)

Good morning, and welcome to our Wednesday market update. Today, we're focusing on key technical levels for major assets, providing an outlook based on yesterday's closing data.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a clearly bullish session yesterday, closing at the upper end of its daily range at 5,271.30. For today's trading, the classical pivot point is set at 5,235.30. Immediate support (S1) is found at 5,190.80, while resistance (R1) stands at 5,315.80.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude traded in a largely sideways pattern, closing centrally within its daily range at 62.57. The classical pivot point for crude is 62.64. Traders will look to 62.27 as the first support level (S1) and 62.93 as the first resistance level (R1).

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a moderately bullish session, though it closed at the lower end of its daily range at 1.1995. The classical pivot point for the pair is 1.2007. Key technical levels to watch are S1 at 1.1968 and R1 at 1.2034.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday's session moderately higher, ending near the top of its daily range at 25,939.74. The intraday pivot point is established at 25,904.69. First support (S1) for the index is at 25,826.80, with initial resistance (R1) at 26,017.64.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 concluded a largely sideways session, settling in the middle of its daily range at 6,978.60. The classical pivot point for today is 6,975.42. Significant levels include S1 at 6,962.01 and R1 at 6,992.00.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX experienced a largely sideways session, closing at the lower end of its daily range at 24,894.44. The pivot point is currently at 24,921.06. Key technical levels include S1 at 24,821.91 and R1 at 24,993.60.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB showed moderate bullishness yesterday, closing at the upper end of its daily range at 45,440.00. The classical pivot point is 45,318.00. Traders should observe S1 at 45,112.00 and R1 at 45,646.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 traded largely sideways but closed at the upper end of its daily range at 2,666.70. The pivot point for today is 2,661.97. Support (S1) is found at 2,655.37, with resistance (R1) at 2,673.29.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets - January 28, 2026

Good morning. Here's a look at the key movements impacting global markets this Wednesday.

Cross-Asset Volatility: Realized vs. Implied and Term-Structure

Market volatility indicators suggest no immediate signs of extreme fear or complacency across major indices.

• The VIX (S&P 500) stands at approximately 16.4%, aligning with its recent average.
• Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is around 20.5%, also in line with its recent mean.
• In commodities, the GVZ (Gold) is at approximately 33.1% and the OVX (Oil) is around 49.6%. Both are moderately above their 20-day averages, indicating that the market is paying for protection, but without exhibiting signs of panic.

Analyzing Realized vs. Implied volatility for the S&P 500 (SPX), the 10-day realized volatility is about 13.7%, while the VIX (implied volatility) is at 16.4%. This suggests that implied volatility is slightly above realized, which is a normal premium for protection on the SPX.

USD Performance

The U.S. Dollar has experienced significant downward pressure, with the Dollar Index (DXY) falling to around 96.08 on January 28, 2026, marking a 0.14% decrease from the prior session. The DXY has declined for a fourth consecutive session, reaching its weakest level since February 2022.

This weakening trend is partly attributed to comments from former President Donald Trump expressing indifference to the dollar's decline, which reinforced market perceptions that the administration favors a softer dollar to boost exports. Policy uncertainty in Washington, including discussions around Federal Reserve independence and potential joint US-Japan currency intervention to support the yen, has also contributed to the greenback's struggles.

The dollar's weakness has benefited other major currencies, with the EUR/USD climbing to 1.2081, reaching its strongest level since 2021 following Trump's comments. While the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged today, market participants are keenly awaiting any guidance regarding the timing of future rate cuts.

Bond Yields

In the fixed income market, the US 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to 4.23% on January 28, 2026, representing a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. It has largely steadied around 4.24% today. While the yield has edged up by 0.12 points over the past month, it remains 0.31 points lower than a year ago.

Across the Atlantic, the Germany 10-year Bund yield held steady at 2.87% as of January 27, 2026, though it had risen to 2.89%, approaching its highest level since mid-March 2025. The yield has seen a modest increase of 0.05 points over the last month and is 0.31 points higher year-over-year.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday and Multi-day Tactical Playbook (Wednesday)

As markets open this Wednesday, a prevailing neutral bias is observed across key assets, suggesting a day well-suited for range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures. Traders should closely monitor the defined support and resistance levels for potential directional triggers.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold's daily pivot is established at 5,234.23. Key support levels are found at S1 5,188.67 and S2 5,109.23, while resistances are marked at R1 5,313.67 and R2 5,359.23. The bias remains neutral, favoring range-trading between 5,188.67 and 5,313.67, or market-neutral options around the 5,234.23 pivot. Directional triggers would require confirmed breakouts above 5,359.23 or below 5,109.23.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude holds a daily pivot at 62.64. Support levels are identified at S1 62.27 and S2 61.98, with resistance levels at R1 62.93 and R2 63.30. The bias is neutral, making range-trading between 62.27 and 62.93 the preferred strategy, or employing market-neutral options around the 62.64 pivot. Confirmed breakouts beyond 63.30 or below 61.98 would signal directional movements.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

The EUR/USD daily pivot stands at 1.2007. Supports are noted at S1 1.1968 and S2 1.1941, while resistances are at R1 1.2034 and R2 1.2074. A neutral bias prevails, suggesting range-trading between 1.1968 and 1.2034, or market-neutral options strategies centered on the 1.2007 pivot. Directional triggers will emerge upon confirmed breaches above 1.2074 or below 1.1941.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100's daily pivot is at 25,904.69. Support levels are S1 25,826.80 and S2 25,713.85, with resistances at R1 26,017.64 and R2 26,095.53. The neutral bias indicates a preference for range-trading between 25,826.80 and 26,017.64, or market-neutral options strategies around the 25,904.69 pivot. Directional momentum will be confirmed by breakouts above 26,095.53 or below 25,713.85.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

The S&P 500 registers a daily pivot at 6,975.42. Support levels are S1 6,962.01 and S2 6,945.43, against resistances at R1 6,992.00 and R2 7,005.41. With a neutral bias, range-trading between 6,962.01 and 6,992.00, or market-neutral option structures around the 6,975.42 pivot, are suitable. Directional shifts are anticipated only on confirmed movements beyond 7,005.41 or below 6,945.43.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

The DAX has a daily pivot at 24,921.06. Supports are found at S1 24,821.91 and S2 24,749.37, with resistances at R1 24,993.60 and R2 25,092.75. A neutral bias suggests range-trading strategies between 24,821.91 and 24,993.60, or market-neutral options around the 24,921.06 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 25,092.75 or below 24,749.37 are required for directional triggers.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is set at 45,318.00. Supports are at S1 45,112.00 and S2 44,784.00, while resistances are at R1 45,646.00 and R2 45,852.00. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 45,112.00 and 45,646.00, or market-neutral options around the 45,318.00 pivot. Directional triggers will be activated by confirmed moves beyond 45,852.00 or below 44,784.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

The Russell 2000 has a daily pivot at 2,661.97. Support levels are S1 2,655.37 and S2 2,644.05, with resistances at R1 2,673.29 and R2 2,679.89. A neutral bias indicates range-trading suitability between 2,655.37 and 2,673.29, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,661.97 pivot. Directional breakouts are confirmed above 2,679.89 or below 2,644.05.

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading in derivative instruments and with leverage involves a high level of risk.