Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets - January 22, 2026

Markets open today, Thursday, January 22, 2026, with a generally mixed pre-market tone, as equity indices continue to exhibit a lack of strong directional conviction. We are observing ongoing sector rotations and highly selective capital flows, indicating a cautious approach among investors awaiting fresh catalysts.

US Index Futures

US equity index futures show a modest upward bias, with the US500 and NAS100 futures each registering a slight positive movement of approximately +0.03 in pre-market trading. Attention remains keenly focused on potential breakout or fakeout scenarios around recent highs and lows, suggesting that tactical trading opportunities may emerge as the session progresses. Traders are advised to monitor these critical levels closely for decisive moves.

Key Market Dynamics

Beyond equities, the broader market reflects similar caution. The EURUSD currency pair maintains a neutral bias, with its direction largely influenced by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy differentials, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data. In commodities, both gold and WTI crude oil also exhibit a neutral bias. Their respective flows are currently a reflection of both overarching macroeconomic factors and specific news developments related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is currently at intermediate levels. This suggests that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress. This environment underscores a market in anticipation, rather than one driven by strong conviction.

Tactical Outlook and Top Movers

The tactical focus for the day remains squarely on the anticipation of new macroeconomic catalysts. Without these, trading is likely to remain highly tactical, centered around established support and resistance levels. Investors should also pay close attention to any sudden headline news that could quickly shift market sentiment and drive activity in specific stocks or sectors. In this pre-market environment, specific 'top movers' are yet to distinctly emerge, as the market awaits stronger directional cues to crystallize performance leaders.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Thursday, January 22, 2026

Asia Asian markets are exhibiting a largely subdued directional tone this morning, with movements remaining contained. Investors are primarily focused on local news flow and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. We anticipate continued sensitivity to these regional inputs, influencing benchmark indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng.

Europe European futures are trading relatively flat as the session begins, indicating a neutral short-term outlook. The market currently lacks strong catalysts, with investors awaiting fresh macro or political developments to provide clearer direction. Attention remains on key regional indices like the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50, which are likely to consolidate in the absence of significant news.

Macro Calendar (CET) Today's economic calendar presents a moderate level of relevance, though several publications could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local economic updates. These releases will be watched for their potential impact on European equities and the Euro.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts to the United States, with scheduled data releases covering inflation, labor, or activity (depending on the specific day's calendar). These US statistics are crucial for their implications on the EUR/USD exchange rate and global equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, as well as statistics on financial conditions, will be closely monitored for potential spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels (January 22, 2026)

Here are the key technical levels to watch for major instruments, calculated based on yesterday's closing data (January 21, 2026).

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold experienced a largely sideways session yesterday, closing in the upper part of its daily range. Yesterday's close was 4,835.60, with a daily range between 4,772.70 and 4,839.40. Key classic pivot levels are P at 4,815.90, with supports at S1 4,792.40 and S2 4,749.20. Resistances are found at R1 4,859.10 and R2 4,882.60.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude's session was largely sideways, with the commodity closing in the lower part of its daily range. It closed at 60.42, after trading within a range of 60.40 to 60.82. The main pivot point is at 60.55. Support levels are S1 60.27 and S2 60.13, while resistance levels are R1 60.69 and R2 60.97.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a largely sideways session, concluding in the upper portion of its daily range. It closed yesterday at 1.1695, with a trading range between 1.1675 and 1.1700. The classic pivot point stands at 1.1690. Supports are identified at S1 1.1680 and S2 1.1665. Resistances are at R1 1.1705 and R2 1.1715.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a moderately bullish session, closing near the middle of its daily range. The index closed at 25,326.58, having traded between 24,993.98 and 25,498.81. The pivot point is 25,273.12. Supports are at S1 25,047.44 and S2 24,768.29, while resistances are at R1 25,552.27 and R2 25,777.95.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 posted a moderately bullish session, ending in the upper part of its daily range. It closed at 6,875.62, with a daily range from 6,804.96 to 6,910.39. The central pivot point is 6,863.66. Key support levels are S1 6,816.92 and S2 6,758.23. Resistance levels are R1 6,922.35 and R2 6,969.09.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX had a moderately bearish session yesterday, closing in the upper part of its daily range. The index closed at 24,560.98, after trading between 24,349.54 and 24,656.73. The pivot point is 24,522.42. Supports are at S1 24,388.10 and S2 24,215.23. Resistances are at R1 24,695.29 and R2 24,829.61.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB experienced a moderately bearish session, closing in the upper part of its daily range. The index closed at 44,488.00, with its range for the day being 44,063.00 to 44,675.00. The pivot point is 44,408.67. Supports are identified at S1 44,142.33 and S2 43,796.67, while resistances are at R1 44,754.33 and R2 45,020.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 concluded a clearly bullish session yesterday, closing in the upper part of its daily range. The index finished at 2,698.17, having moved within a range of 2,651.47 to 2,703.75. The classic pivot point is 2,684.46. Support levels are S1 2,665.18 and S2 2,632.18. Resistance levels are R1 2,717.46 and R2 2,736.74.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility and Yields in Focus

Good morning, and welcome to today's market update. We begin our analysis by examining the current state of market volatility, followed by a look at the U.S. Dollar and bond yields.

Equity Volatility: Elevated Risk Premium

The **VIX (S&P 500)** currently stands at approximately 16.9%, which is in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excess of fear or complacency in the broader market. However, a closer look at the realized versus implied volatility for the S&P 500 reveals a significant discrepancy: the implied volatility priced by the VIX is notably above the 10-day realized volatility of around 13.4%. This indicates an elevated risk premium embedded in the options market.

Cross-Asset Volatility Overview

• The **VXN (Nasdaq 100)** is at approximately 21.2%, also aligning with its recent average, indicating a lack of extreme sentiment.
• **GVZ (Gold)** volatility is around 26.3%, consistent with its recent historical levels, suggesting no unusual movements in gold's price expectations.
• In the commodities space, **OVX (Oil)** volatility registers at about 45.5%. This is moderately above its 20-day average, signaling that the market is willing to pay for protection, though without exhibiting signs of panic.

U.S. Dollar and Bond Yields

The **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)** has shown strength, currently hovering around 98.78 to 98.79. It has risen by approximately 0.22% over the past 24 hours and has strengthened by 0.87% over the past month. Meanwhile, the **EUR/USD** exchange rate is around 1.16857, having increased slightly by 0.04% in the past 24 hours.

In the bond market, the **US 10-year Treasury yield** saw an increase, rising to 4.26% on January 22, 2026. This marks a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Some reports also noted the yield jumping to approximately 4.29%, reaching its highest level since August, amid a global bond sell-off.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook (Intraday / Multiday)

Today, Thursday, January 22, 2026, markets generally present a neutral bias across key assets, suggesting a context more suited for range-trading strategies or market-neutral optional structures around the daily pivots. Directional triggers are identified by confirmed breakouts beyond specified resistance or support levels, indicating potential shifts in momentum.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 4,816.00.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 4,792.60 and First Resistance (R1) at 4,859.30.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 4,792.60 and 4,859.30, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 4,816.00.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 4,882.70 or below Second Support (S2) at 4,749.30.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 60.55.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 60.27 and First Resistance (R1) at 60.69.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 60.27 and 60.69, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 60.55.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 60.97 or below Second Support (S2) at 60.13.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 1.1690.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 1.1680 and First Resistance (R1) at 1.1705.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 1.1680 and 1.1705, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 1.1690.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 1.1715 or below Second Support (S2) at 1.1665.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 25,273.12.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 25,047.44 and First Resistance (R1) at 25,552.27.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 25,047.44 and 25,552.27, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 25,273.12.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 25,777.95 or below Second Support (S2) at 24,768.29.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 6,863.66.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 6,816.92 and First Resistance (R1) at 6,922.35.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 6,816.92 and 6,922.35, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 6,863.66.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 6,969.09 or below Second Support (S2) at 6,758.23.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 24,522.42.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 24,388.10 and First Resistance (R1) at 24,695.29.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 24,388.10 and 24,695.29, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 24,522.42.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 24,829.61 or below Second Support (S2) at 24,215.23.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 44,408.67.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 44,142.33 and First Resistance (R1) at 44,754.33.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 44,142.33 and 44,754.33, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 44,408.67.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 45,020.67 or below Second Support (S2) at 43,796.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Bias: Neutral.
• Daily Pivot: 2,684.46.
• Key Levels for Range-Trading: First Support (S1) at 2,665.18 and First Resistance (R1) at 2,717.46.
• Recommended Strategy: Range-trading between 2,665.18 and 2,717.46, or market-neutral option strategies around the pivot 2,684.46.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above Second Resistance (R2) at 2,736.74 or below Second Support (S2) at 2,632.18.

Disclaimer: This comment is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivative and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.