Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: January 21, 2026

As Wednesday trading commences, global equity markets are presenting a mixed picture, characterized by a lack of strong directional conviction and ongoing sectoral rotations. Investor flows remain selective across various assets, indicative of a cautious sentiment in anticipation of fresh market catalysts.

US Index Futures and Pre-Market Tone

US index futures are showing a slightly negative bias in early pre-market trading, with both the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) reflecting a modest -0.03 average bias. Traders are closely monitoring recent highs and lows for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios, suggesting heightened sensitivity to price action around established levels.

The overall pre-market tone is one of guarded anticipation. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is holding at intermediate levels. This indicates that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is currently no discernible systemic stress. This environment encourages a wait-and-see approach, with participants actively seeking new macroeconomic data or significant headlines to guide their next moves. Without strong catalysts, specific "top movers" are yet to clearly emerge, with attention focused on broad market reactions to support and resistance levels.

Currency and Commodity Overview

In the foreign exchange market, EURUSD maintains a neutral bias, with its direction largely influenced by the ongoing interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside upcoming inflation and labor market data. Commodities are also exhibiting a neutral stance, with both Gold and WTI crude oil prices reflecting a balance between broader macroeconomic factors and specific supply-demand news influencing rates and growth expectations.

Tactical Outlook for the Day

Today's tactical focus remains firmly on the lookout for new macroeconomic catalysts. Given the current market equilibrium, investors are expected to employ a more tactical approach, focusing on support and resistance levels. Particular attention will be paid to any sudden headlines that could swiftly alter market sentiment and trigger sharper price movements. Without clear directional impetus, disciplined risk management and agile responses to emerging information will be paramount.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: January 21, 2026

Good morning, and welcome to our daily market update. Global markets are exhibiting a cautious tone this Wednesday as investors await fresh catalysts and digest recent economic data.

Asia

• Asian markets are currently lacking strong directional conviction, with major indices experiencing contained movements. Focus remains keenly on local economic news and key data releases from China and Japan.
• The Nikkei 225 in Japan and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index are trading without a clear trend, reflecting the broader regional sentiment.

Europe

• European futures are showing limited movement this morning, indicating a neutral short-term outlook. Investors are largely on standby, anticipating new macro or political catalysts to provide direction.
• Both the DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 are poised to open without significant shifts, as market participants assess the current economic landscape.

USA

• US futures are mixed and without a clear direction, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase following recent movements.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's economic calendar presents a moderate level of relevance, though several publications could influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The early part of the day will feature various confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside other local updates, which could provide insights into regional economic health.
• P.M.: The afternoon will bring crucial data from the United States, including updates on inflation, employment, or economic activity. These releases will be particularly key for the EUR/USD currency pair and for setting the tone for US equity indices.
• Evening: Later in the day, market participants should monitor any potential speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB), as well as statistics related to financial conditions, which could lead to spikes in market volatility.

We will continue to monitor developments throughout the trading day.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - January 21, 2026

Here's a look at the key technical levels for major assets, based on yesterday's closing data (January 20, 2026), to guide today's trading session.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 4,848.40
• Context: Gold experienced a clearly bullish session, closing in the upper portion of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 4,833.67 · S1 4,776.23 · R1 4,905.83 · S2 4,704.07 · R2 4,963.27

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 59.61
• Context: WTI Crude saw a moderately bearish session, ending in the lower part of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 59.67 · S1 59.40 · R1 59.87 · S2 59.20 · R2 60.14

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1716
• Context: The EUR/USD pair closed a moderately bullish session, despite ending in the lower portion of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1723 · S1 1.1709 · R1 1.1731 · S2 1.1701 · R2 1.1745

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,987.57
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a clearly bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 25,073.84 · S1 24,867.91 · R1 25,193.51 · S2 24,748.24 · R2 25,399.44

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,796.86
• Context: The S&P 500 posted a clearly bearish session, with its close in the lower part of the daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 6,819.03 · S1 6,766.88 · R1 6,849.00 · S2 6,736.91 · R2 6,901.15

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,703.12
• Context: The DAX saw a moderately bearish session, though it closed in the upper portion of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 24,656.18 · S1 24,554.05 · R1 24,805.26 · S2 24,404.97 · R2 24,907.39

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 44,713.00
• Context: The FTSE MIB concluded a moderately bearish session, closing in the middle of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 44,699.00 · S1 44,467.00 · R1 44,945.00 · S2 44,221.00 · R2 45,177.00

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,645.36
• Context: The Russell 2000 experienced a moderately bearish session, closing near the middle of its daily range.
• Classic Pivots: P 2,649.35 · S1 2,628.37 · R1 2,666.33 · S2 2,611.39 · R2 2,687.31

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Watch and Key Market Drivers

Market sentiment continues to reflect a cautious approach, with implied volatility across major indices and commodities suggesting investors are willing to pay for protection, though without signs of outright panic.

The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands around 20.1%, moderately above its 20-day average. This indicates that the market is actively pricing in potential downside risks, reflecting a preference for hedging rather than outright fear. A more granular look at the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence between realized and implied volatility. With 10-day realized volatility at approximately 12.3% and VIX at 20.1%, the implied volatility premium is notably high. This elevated risk premium suggests that market participants are anticipating a potential increase in future price swings, even if recent movements have been relatively subdued.

Cross-asset volatility metrics largely echo this sentiment:

• The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is trading around 24.3%, also moderately above its 20-day average. Similar to the S&P 500, this points to a market paying for protection without indicating panic.
• For commodities, OVX (Oil) is at approximately 42.8%, moderately above its 20-day average, signaling a similar protective stance in the energy markets.
• In contrast, GVZ (Gold) volatility is around 24.8%, in line with its recent average. This suggests no evident excess of fear or complacency specific to the gold market at present.
• Data for EVZ (EURUSD) and VDAX (DAX) is currently unavailable for this morning's update.

Beyond the immediate volatility landscape, market participants remain keenly focused on the movements in the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields. These key drivers continue to play a pivotal role in influencing capital flows, corporate earnings outlooks, and broader economic sentiment. Their trajectories will be critical in shaping market direction, particularly given the current environment of elevated implied volatility.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Intraday / Multiday Tactical Playbook

Good morning, traders. Today, Wednesday, we observe a generally neutral bias across major asset classes, suggesting a focus on range-trading opportunities or market-neutral strategies around identified pivot points. Directional plays should await confirmed breakouts beyond defined resistance or support levels.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,833.07
• Key Levels: Support at S1 4,775.03, S2 4,703.47. Resistance at R1 4,904.63, R2 4,962.67.
• Bias: Neutral. Strategies should focus on range-trading between 4,775.03 and 4,904.63, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,833.07 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 4,962.67 or below 4,703.47.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 59.65
• Key Levels: Support at S1 59.38, S2 59.18. Resistance at R1 59.85, R2 60.12.
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 59.38 and 59.85, or market-neutral optional structures around the 59.65 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 60.12 or below 59.18.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1723
• Key Levels: Support at S1 1.1710, S2 1.1701. Resistance at R1 1.1732, R2 1.1745.
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 1.1710 and 1.1732, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1723 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1745 or below 1.1701.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 25,073.84
• Key Levels: Support at S1 24,867.91, S2 24,748.24. Resistance at R1 25,193.51, R2 25,399.44.
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 24,867.91 and 25,193.51, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,073.84 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,399.44 or below 24,748.24.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 6,819.03
• Key Levels: Support at S1 6,766.88, S2 6,736.91. Resistance at R1 6,849.00, R2 6,901.15.
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 6,766.88 and 6,849.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,819.03 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 6,901.15 or below 6,736.91.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,656.18
• Key Levels: Support at S1 24,554.05, S2 24,404.97. Resistance at R1 24,805.26, R2 24,907.39.
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 24,554.05 and 24,805.26, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,656.18 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 24,907.39 or below 24,404.97.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 44,699.00
• Key Levels: Support at S1 44,467.00, S2 44,221.00. Resistance at R1 44,945.00, R2 45,177.00.
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 44,467.00 and 44,945.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 44,699.00 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 45,177.00 or below 44,221.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,649.35
• Key Levels: Support at S1 2,628.37, S2 2,611.39. Resistance at R1 2,666.33, R2 2,687.31.
• Bias: Neutral. Range-trading between 2,628.37 and 2,666.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 2,649.35 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,687.31 or below 2,611.39.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation of public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.